MP1 - Megaport Limited

[Telamelo]

Wow explosive move today on guidance of fy23 and fy24 EBITDAs which substantially beats 'consensus'.
Will it sustain the obvious question - I did a primitive calc of market cap multiple to EBITDA (guidance) for fy24 and got 21X

market cap on 45% intraday rise = $920m
Mid range fy24 EBITDA guidance = $44m
M.C ÷ EBITDA = 21X

Not Held

Got alert this morning as saw it open up a whopping $5.75 (after yesterday's closing price $3.98) cudos & well done to anyone here holding... don't particularly like big 'open gap's up' as eventually should fill/close imo I'll await any pullback to perhaps $4.50-4.70ish to consider an entry dyor

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I'll await any pullback to perhaps $4.50-4.70ish to consider an entry dyor

The door may be slammed shut ...

After the earlier jump 28 April , renewed buying seems to be pushing it higher.. now $6.71.

 

[Telamelo]

The door may be slammed shut ...

After the earlier jump 28 April , renewed buying seems to be pushing it higher.. now $6.71.

View attachment 157356

Seems so DF

Still on my watchlist awaiting a "market crash" lol as surely then it may likely fill/close previous 'open gap up'

P.S. Dislike 'open gaps up' as usually more often than not eventually fill/close at some stage imo

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Amateurs open markets , professionals close them.

strong closes all week, increasingly so.

 

[finicky]

Amateurs open markets , professionals close them.

The IT sector was best on ground today (+3.76%) but Megaport ahead of the pack, up more than 5%.

It really does look like that big high volume breakaway gap at the end of May is not going to close. Not in modern times anyway. They do say that about breakaway gaps - most of them anyway. Daily chart looks good but at overbought level. Positive cross of daily moving averages, momentum trending up - what's not to like? Maybe get to $8-9 before a normal retrace? Just a guess.

Not Held
Too richly optimistic for me

Daily

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And it was doing so well .... to $8 yesterday am. , but based on what? Aus exposure to AI ?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

there ya go, that'll do it
MP1 announces that, as a result of
continued improvement in operating metrics and financial performance, the Company is upgrading its FY23 Normalised EBITDA to be in the range of $19M to $21M (compared to previous guidance of $16M to $18M). Reported EBITDA Guidance is now expected to be in the range of $24M to $26M.

The Company also confirms that it was net cash positive in Q4FY23 inclusive of redundancy payments of approximately $2.6M.

While the Company is still finalising its FY24 budget with the new CEO to appropriately capture network expansion, product and revenue generating headcount, the Company expects its FY24 EBITDA guidance to be higher than the previous guidance of $41M to $46M.

Additionally, excluding any future strategic initiatives the Company may decide to undertake, Megaport confirms it expects to be net cash positive for FY24 after taking into account the planned incremental growth in sales headcount and planned capital expenditure.

H.

 

[finicky]

Wow, ex-per-losive move.

I was going to say 3 preceding consecutive months of high positive volume should have been a good cue but I'm impervious to buy signals at these valuation ratios anyway.

Not Held

MONTHLY not showing today's 27% move

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Wow, ex-per-losive showing ... today's 27% move

closed on its highs. Make that 33 per cent .

 

[Dona Ferentes]

closed on its highs. Make that 33 per cent .

..... And, two goes at $10.

.... made it to $9.99 on 13th, and ran to $9.98 today before the customary pullback

 

[Dona Ferentes]

..... And, two goes at $10.

looking like a shampoo advert?
......or is that regrouping for higher highs/ higher lows?

was $4 late April.

LTH.f/c

 

[Dona Ferentes]

New CEO mutterings / looking out

• Company still finalising FY24 budget (only 2 months into the role)
• Working to appropriately capture additional costs in relation to network expansion, product and revenue generating headcount - growth investment
• FY24 Normalised EBITDA expected to be above previous guidance of $41-46M
• Expected to be Net Cash Flow Positive for FY24, excluding any future strategic initiatives
• Company to issue updated FY24 guidance no later than 22nd August

Pushing to $10...

 

[finicky]

Wow, nice. I came perilously close to making a bad call on this a few days ago. I thought the awkward rising flag shape was more likely to break down into a retracement. Maybe down to $8, phew. This is a very strong rally.

 

[dyna]

Today's AFR reports ( not too favourably , either ) on MP1 , that with a net cash position just half the $ 68 Million of a year ago , the company could be ready for a new equity raising.
Full year's company report due next month .

 

[Dona Ferentes]

....., two goes at $10..... made it to $9.99 on 13th, and ran to $9.98

And two closes at highs for the day at $11.01 during this week.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And two closes at highs for the day at $11.01 during this week.

punched higher, .... to $12.72 on initial/ early excitement; now around $12.

OUTLOOK
As a result of continued improvement in the Company’s operating and financial performance, the Company expects FY24 EBITDA to be in the range of $51M to $57M. This reflects an increase of 152% to 182% compared to FY23
- Normalised EBITDA of $20.2M and an increase of approximately 24% to FY24 guidance provided on 28 April 2023.
- FY24 Revenue is expected to be in the range of $190M to $195M, an increase of 24% to 27% on FY23 Revenue of $153.1M.
- Megaport also confirms it expects to be Net Cash Flow positive for the full year FY24.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

then recently, slam. down to to sub 10's. ...holding mid 9's..

AGM today ...

the little company that could. Aw, shucks.

2023 Annual General Meeting
Chairman’s Address

.....As set out in my letter, ten years ago a handful of talented and passionate people set about building a business that we believed could transform the way enterprise customers connect to the cloud. We saw there was an opportunity to build a platform that was so unique, that no one had ever considered it possible. Our vision? To do for networking what Amazon has done for compute. Totally automated, virtualised, and on-demand. From these humble beginnings in a small office in Fortitude Valley, we started executing on that vision.
Fast forward ten years and that startup is today an ASX200 company, exiting FY23 with an annual recurring revenue run rate of $178.6M, and connecting to all the major cloud providers around the world. This little Australian company pioneered Network as a Service and is today the leading independent provider of NaaS services worldwide.
The past ten years have been extraordinary, filled with so many amazing stories, supported by so many remarkable people. As they say, “It’s often more about the journey than the destination.” In our case, there was no path to follow; we were leading the way in almost every respect. So the journey has been difficult at times, but also incredibly rewarding as we delivered on our vision. It almost seems fitting and ironic that for me, our tenth year as a company has been the most challenging, yet simultaneously, possibly the most inspiring.

But above all, FY23 for Megaport has been a year of transformation. Today we find ourselves with a business that is EBITDA positive, generating cash, and with a new streamlined, focused, and invigorated Executive team. We delivered a significant upgrade in earnings outlook and trajectory, an annual $30M cash flow improvement in less than six months, and our first net cash positive quarter in history.
In March, the Company appointed a proven technology and SaaS leader, Michael Reid, as Chief Executive Officer. Since commencing his role as CEO in May, Michael has already had a significant impact on Megaport. His experience and energy are greatly welcomed by the team along with his openness and inclusive leadership style.
A big thanks to the Megaport team who worked tirelessly to implement the transformation over the past year. On behalf of the Board and shareholders, thank you. I’d also like to thank you, our shareholders, for your ongoing support and belief in our business as we continue to revolutionise the way the world connects to and through the cloud.

(don't mention the previous team)

 

[Dona Ferentes]

FibreconX has signed a deal with Megaport to deliver software services on its fibre networks. It is building infrastructure that connects the biggest data centres in Sydney and Melbourne as it tries to compete with Telstra, TPG Telecom and the Vocus Group.

FibreconX chief executive Mark Rafferty says the group hopes to snare 200 to 300 wholesale fibre customers from the country’s biggest telecommunications groups as it offers cut-price services in so-called “dark fibre”, which is essentially plain fibre, selling to wholesalers, which add equipment that allows them to provide communications services at various speeds.

To date, Megaport’s customers have needed to have their own connection to a data centre or use third-party operators to use services. The arrangement with FibreconX will allow Megaport to offer FibreconX services to its customers to connect directly to data centres.

“They can control the experience from the data centre straight to the end customer the same as if the customer was within the data centre,” Mr Rafferty said. “At the moment, if you want to buy Megaport services, you’ve got to connect to the data centre somehow or you’ve got to be in the data centre.”

Tattarang is FibreconX’s biggest shareholder, but owns less than 50 per cent. Other stakes are held by telecommunications and technology investors.
.
so ... the old Superloop / Megaport relationship just didn't have the balance sheet strength?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

sold out of MP1 on 15 Dec , the rest of my holding, some 8000 gone at $10.10.
.
and not before time (lucky)

State Street in there, with their shorting games

 

[Dona Ferentes]

around $9.25 ... my January 2024 tip.

No real reason, apart from shorters have being playing; maybe they'll have next month off.

no longer hold