Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Move over S Roach, There's a new bear in town

Jump to new
You know since Ive been here around 2 yrs there have always been these Bear threads.Today we have a new high on the DJIA.

Think its better to be a consistant bull.

You know every time I look outside the sky hasent fallen.

All this doom and gloom in the scale of everything it affects a MINORITY.
 
tech/a said:
You know since Ive been here around 2 yrs there have always been these Bear threads.Today we have a new high on the DJIA.

Think its better to be a consistant bull.

You know every time I look outside the sky hasent fallen.

All this doom and gloom in the scale of everything it affects a MINORITY.
Click to expand...

I wonder if Bernard Baruch would have agreed with you in 1929. ;)
 
Every house will be for sale!!!

How these guys can extralopate the obvious faults of pockets of the property markets and lending practices across the total health of the US economy fascinates me.

It is like seeing the milkbar down the road going broke and selling you home to buy gold as a result.


His comments regarding securitisation amaze me. How can he say that buyers of mortgage backed paper aren't cogniscent of the risk? This sort of paper isn't exactly moms and dads preferred investment.

If there is so much risk in this area, why are spreads on mortgage securities tighter than ever?

The cheating of no/low docs by punters cannot be too much of a problem when you consider the spreads on sub prime paper are as tight as ever.

The market is looking through the effect of the minority that is gaming the system.

Does this guy think the world would be better if securitisation was banned and banks had to hold loans on their books?

I would bet my house that such a move (and the subsequent 20% rise in mortgage rates) would lead to a bigger slow down than that caused by Rinker having a few bad quarters.


It is all very emotionally charged but where are the numbers behind it.

What proportion of people in the United States are going to go bust because they punted real estate?

If there is a countrywide glut of housing in the USA, why are rents at all time highs?

I would say there are enormous gluts of property in particular areas, while other markets are more normal.

Securitised debt defaults? AA rated defaults?

Remember that a lot of lower tranches get nailed before the AA rated tranches are touched. Shame the guy didnt make any quantified predictions relating to the % of loans he expects to be defaulted on.

1%- 10%?

Look at the job numbers from last night for another (and the most important) sign of health

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aq2fZFzvKti4&refer=home

The USA is not headed for a depression- let alone the global economy


As was/is the case in the Australian property bubble

Developers will lose money in areas.
Punters will lose money in areas.
Real estate values in areas will fall steeply (Western Sydney), fall slightly, stagnate for a decade and/or keep going up.

The global economy goes on.

The greatest recession story ever but for lack of evidence goes on.

The broken watches carry on for another 12 months without being right
 
Here's an article from the broken watch

http://freebuck.com/articles/pschiff/061006pschiff.htm

Don’t Buy the Dow’s New High

By Peter Schiff

This week, the professional stock market boosters, who masquerade as wise market commentators, filled the airwaves with celebratory musings on the significance of a record high Dow. Many spoke of it as the milestone that will usher in a new bull market reminiscent of the one which roared during the 1990s. However, the Dow’s new high is merely an inflationary illusion. The fact that Wall Street universally ignores inflation adjustments with respect to the Dow, while consistently qualifying oil prices in inflation adjusted terms, reveals the bullish bias of an industry dependent on optimism.



In the first place, adjusted for the CPI the Dow’s January, 2000 peak would equate to over 14,000 in today’s dollars. Of course, since the CPI understates the true inflation rate by at least 2-3 percentage points annually, the Dow Jones would likely have to be over 16,000 today to deliver the same purchasing power that it did then. Ignoring inflation and looking instead from a foreign exchange perspective the Dow is also far from a real high. Priced in British pounds, Canadian or Australian dollars, or euros......
Click to expand...
 
A broken watch is correct twice a day, much like a perma-bear will be correct every so often..

The ASX, or DJIA need to get to new highs regularly because if they don't they are going backwards compared to the CPI. However the ASX does pay reasonable dividends which possibly cover some years CPI increases.

I'm a sharemarket and resources bull for the moment, but to me most Aussie property is overvalued, West Sydney is just about the only place I'd consider buying now as it has taken a bit of a hammering the past 3 years, especially against the CPI. Perth or near there is the last place I'd buy at the moment....
 
Perma bulls often make the silly assumption that bears are perma-bears.

This is not the case. Therefore the broken watch taunt is a peurile attempt to dodge any serious consideration of risks in the economy.

Bears are bears so they can be bulls.

Typically, a bear would like to be an investor on a value basis and so resists buying at inflated prices. A bear simply looks forward to the return of value.

When this occurs, bears will most definately turn into bulls.

So pullleeeeze. the perma-bear/broken watch taunts say more about those that make them than those who must suffer these infantile outbursts.

Cheers
 
How long have you been a sharemarket bear Wayne? What about a property market bear?

I've been a property bear for 5 years (Sydney property anyway).

I'm not a sharemarket bear and never have been, I will be if share prices go up and earnings don't though.

And my views on Sydney property may change next year or the year after if prices correct a little more.
 
Realist said:
How long have you been a sharemarket bear Wayne? What about a property market bear?

I've been a property bear for 5 years (Sydney property anyway).

I'm not a sharemarket bear and never have been, I will be if share prices go up and earnings don't though.

And my views on Sydney property may change next year or the year after if prices correct a little more.
Click to expand...

I was a property bull up till about 2002... but looked more at UK property due to the superior yields available at the time (positive yield was everywhere), but never expected this outrageous bubble.

I have been an ecomomy bear since 2001. IMO the US (and therefore world) should have been allowed to have a natural recession at the time. Instead we now have bubblesville.

A soft landing is no longer possible... The cabal may be able to prop up the house of cards for a while longer... perhaps years. But once something lets go, the whole lot collapses.

:2twocents
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.asxx?clip=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vamhwNZFl1Ds.asf

Mr Faber making the case that Asia can still grow without US growth.

A true internationalist - Mr Faber recommends commodities, oil, gold and Asian equities and property despite the assumption (his) the USD is doomed.

Smarter than the average bear perhaps?

Yogi-portrait.jpg


On a different note, when do we start discounting everything the perma-bear Roach says?

Probably the day before he is eventually right!
 
Faber is a heretic!

I am reporting him to the Worldwide Bear Society.

He will be excommunicated, stripped of his fur and a set of horns fitted, before being cast out into a Bubblevision studio to reside amongst the Bobbleheads.

:D
 
wayneL said:
Faber is a heretic!

I am reporting him to the Worldwide Bear Society.

He will be excommunicated, stripped of his fur and a set of horns fitted, before being cast out into a Bubblevision studio to reside amongst the Bobbleheads.

:D
Click to expand...

I love Bobbleheads!!!

I would like a Jim Rogers Bobblehead - holding a copper pipe sitting on a barrel of oil or pile of bullion
 
wayneL said:
Peter Schiff on message, without the baying, mocking, imbecile, Wall St bulls interrupting. Sill bullish on Europe, Oz etc and megadoom for US.

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vJck9ysOID2E.asf
Click to expand...

A really good listen.

Really interesting that a hyper bear is saying the world economy will do better without the US. Hard to see that. Especially when other hyper bears are saying the world needs the US consumer. Can't see healthy demand for commodities without US consumption...
 
chops_a_must said:
A really good listen.

Really interesting that a hyper bear is saying the world economy will do better without the US. Hard to see that. Especially when other hyper bears are saying the world needs the US consumer. Can't see healthy demand for commodities without US consumption...
Click to expand...
Agree!

It's the one part of his message I can't come to terms with.
 
Top