Where did you get the info from banska? Were you sent an application form already? Should be v.popular at 11.5 cents
MOS - Mosaic Oil
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Where did you get the info from banska? Were you sent an application form already? Should be v.popular at 11.5 cents
Garpal Gumnut
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In one of their recent presentations they said they were looking for a commercial partner for their gas storage proposal, perhaps they have found one. Whatever they are doing I hope we make some $$'s from them and that GG's prediction re sub 8 cents doesn't eventuate.
Its a good company. Lets hope an offering to holders accompanies the bookbuild. I'd pay 8-12c at the moment for mosaic.
It may get to 8c again though when the bear hits again.
Its at the beginning of a wave 3 on EW.
gg
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No application form. Just a phone call from my broker asking how many I wanted. When I said 1M, he said it was very likely to be heavily oversubscribed so apply for 2M just in case I get scaled back.
I'm no Elliott Wave expert GG, but are you saying that as MOS starts wave 3, we'll see a dip and then a decent SP increase?
Garpal Gumnut
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There may or not be a dip, but it looks as if its heading north in the medium to long term.
I include a chart showing EW on MOS in two time periods , recent action and over this past calender year.
gg
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The scale back was brutal. Out of 2M applied for, I received a firm allocation of 300,000. Massive over-subscription. Still, happy to have 300,000 at 11.5c. RBS Morgans short term target is 24c and fair valuation 32c.
Garpal Gumnut
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I still reckon I'll get them again for 8c.
Thats nearly a 30% loss for you. Are you sure you really want them?
I'll take em off yer hands on tuesday to save you the worry mate.
gg
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8c? That's ridiculous. You're dreaming. I'll be topping up on market if they are still under 15c. The institutional demand was ravenous at 11.5c. Hard to see how they will fall to 8c.
Garpal Gumnut
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Well we will just have to see.
Lets think about Brisconnect.
The instos piled into that big time.
It may not go 8c next week, probably won't , but if it goes to 30c , I'm out with a huge profit.
Why should it keep on going up.
Why not up and down like most stocks?
gg
Banska- was 300000 in line with your current holding or is it just proportionate to the level of interest in the subscription? In any case, I think you'll be laughing to have picked any up at 11.5c (unless the knackers fall off the oil price, and I can't see much beyond a temporary dip happening on that score really)
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Hedders,
I wasn't an existing shareholder. My broker puts me in some of these insto/sophisticated investor placements and with this one, I am happy to hold for 20c+ rather than stag like I did with ELD.
Garpal Gumnut
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Well banksa mate, its on the way down, it fell by 7.1% today and if it keeps on going down at that rate I reckon I'll be picking up my parcel by next Wednesday or Thursday. 8c is fair value for Mosaic on the charts, unless the drillers know something we don't, and I don't think they do. They've offloaded a load at 11.5c. I can remember buying a load for a third of that a few years ago. Its working capital not a christmas present mate.
Then again EW may kick in and they'll go to 30c or more and you and me both will be happy.
I'm always sus about brokers putting anyone into anything.
gg
http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/qt/q...0F?code=mos§ion=summary&submit=Go&submit=
gg
Garpal Gumnut
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I've had a look at MOS charts in many time frames, and I feel that the monthly going back to 1991 shows its potential to significantly dip under the recent broker/ insto placement.
I'm a holder and a long term trader of MOS, and genuinely believe it should never be bought at more that 0.085.
Not that I'm wishing any bad for MOS as I'm still a holder of the last lot I bought in December of last year.
gg
I'm a holder and a long term trader of MOS, and genuinely believe it should never be bought at more that 0.085.
Not that I'm wishing any bad for MOS as I'm still a holder of the last lot I bought in December of last year.
gg
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After today's trade I now hold 1M MOS, half of my targetted holding. Very comfortable buying at 13c and will keep accumulating whilst it trades at 13c.
Once the gas storage deal is finalised, the stock will spike and the historic chart will be about as useful as Kleenex.
Once the gas storage deal is finalised, the stock will spike and the historic chart will be about as useful as Kleenex.
I agree that this chart doesn't look pretty GG. Mind you I'm hoping that the recent decline was initially brought about by the dip in oil price followed by the 11.5c share offer (albeit a tiny offer to the average punter of $15K max parcel). Compared to its peers, which may not necessarily have balance sheets as attractive as MOS, Mosaic seems to have been treated a bit harshly by the market. Given what's happened to the oil price since Sept 08, I thought MOS's 09 result was pretty decent, but that looks like a minority view!
Garpal Gumnut
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banks mate, like you I do like to back winners and also like to diversify.
I am however at a loss to understand why you bought and are buying MOS now, rather than 11 months ago when it was near half the price.
What has changed in the interim, apart from a placement at 0.115c to make you so bullish on MOS?
gg
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No inclination to own MOS 12 months ago. You cannot be in all stocks. Diversification is a hedge for the ignorant.
The gas storage upside is what I like. Circa 20c-24c is my target price. I would then exit as this is not "ten bagger" potential and that's what I look for when holding long term.
Garpal Gumnut
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Thanks banksa, I never realised until I read your thread that I was ignorant. At least I know what I am now.
You are a fount of wisdom and as a person of your stature would realise shares only go up when you buy them.
I trust you got the next few million shares you said you'd buy at your buyin price of .13c, as MOS closed today at .125.
I have now learnt that diversification is for the ignorant. Thank god for ASF.
So where to from here banksa. I know you wouldn't dream of buying them at 0.08, so where will you buy the next million or so. At ,12, .115, .09 ?
I'd love to be a sophisticated investor like you. Are you born into it? Can you marry into it? Or are there exams you need to do. Or do you suddenly become sophisticated and get phoned by brokers to flog stock they can't sell to the instos.
gg
I'm worried by what might be a "new trend" of mining companies calling a trading halt and then dressing up a grab for more cash in the interests of further development opportunities. FML followed suit today. As the market grew tired of every company under the sun raising capital to settle debt, maybe they've decided on this new pitch. I still don't quite understand the need to dilute shares if the company is going so well. I'm obviously missing the point of what's going on. I've noticed that their cash holdings have dropped a lot and that accounts payable has increased though.
After seeing MOS drop another half cent today however, it looks like the market is also uneasy about the share offer, even if it is supposedly for expanding exploration activities. We've seen 2 days of shares across the board going sky high, and the energy index was up 0.3% today, but MOS is still heading south. Until today I wasn't all that concerned. Heaven help it when this inevitable correction occurs!
After seeing MOS drop another half cent today however, it looks like the market is also uneasy about the share offer, even if it is supposedly for expanding exploration activities. We've seen 2 days of shares across the board going sky high, and the energy index was up 0.3% today, but MOS is still heading south. Until today I wasn't all that concerned. Heaven help it when this inevitable correction occurs!
Not sure where MOS price is going short term but hopefully long term up, those that get the 11.5 cents shares have a reason to sell at any price above that really, so plenty of potential sellers. In the meantime I can still sit here and enjoy classic posts like GG's last to put a smile on my face at bed time
