Monthly Momentum - ASX300 Super

I sold NHC and WHC, and both were my biggest winners. Having a look at more recent movements I can see why my system got rid of them. I bought NHC at 2.98 in the past, and WHC at 4.16.

And I did notice that the index is up, though my system and Cam's both had negative or flat months. My daily long/short system on US stocks has also been a bit flat lately too. My systems are performing in a similar manner to others who trade the same type (type and timeframe) so I'm not worried about any issues with the system. It is interesting to see how different systems are reacting to the current market though.

I wasn't concerned about your system just surprised that there were some sells in a strongly bullish month. My results have also been so-so in this very bullish month. This indicates that there's been a fundamental shift in the demand of some sectors. The sectors that we're in have gone out of favour while other sectors that we're not in (large caps) have got all the buying. Our portfolios will underperform until we adapt (get in sync with the market).

peter2 said:

That you're selling good winners surprises me. It's been a very bullish month for the index and the large caps (bullish key reversal bar).
I would understand if those sold were small to mid caps.

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i am GUESSING the logic is .. these ( winners ) have run long and hard , AND look like they are running out of puff ( and buyer support )

i am using different investing styles , but still subscribe to the saying you never go broke by taking a profit

peter2 said:

I wasn't concerned about your system just surprised that there were some sells in a strongly bullish month. My results have also been so-so in this very bullish month. This indicates that there's been a fundamental shift in the demand of some sectors. The sectors that we're in have gone out of favour while other sectors that we're not in (large caps) have got all the buying. Our portfolios will underperform until we adapt (get in sync with the market).

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That's a good analysis. Makes a lot of sense to me.

Always insightful mate

divs4ever said:

i am GUESSING the logic is .. these ( winners ) have run long and hard , AND look like they are running out of puff ( and buyer support )

i am using different investing styles , but still subscribe to the saying you never go broke by taking a profit

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yea, it's a dual momentum strategy working on monthly bar's.The system combines more recent momentum and longer term momentum. it's more handsoff than some strategys, but being so slow can make it difficult (for some) to follow. I'm happy to be taking a profit though (I held the positions for almost a year so nice to cash in).

i reduced ( further ) my WHC holding in October 2022 @ $9.99 (my theoretical av. SP is $1.39 )

while i dither and ponder on rescuing the investment cash on NHC (my theoretical av. SP is $2.20 )

there can be some tough decisions with investing and trading

Beginning of month 30

Well, another shitty month. Started out ok, but drifted down. I think yesterday/today took half of my losses I accumulated this month. That's the problem with a momo strat in a downward market. Oh well ....

Warr87 said:

Beginning of month 30

Well, another shitty month. Started out ok, but drifted down. I think yesterday/today took half of my losses I accumulated this month. That's the problem with a momo strat in a downward market. Oh well ....

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Haven't checked in on your thread for a long time. Great to see your commitment, well done.

Thanks mate. It was doing great but definitely in a rough patch right now.

I think it's a good strategy though. I intend on trading it for a while. Hopefully people get something out of this thread.

Warr87 said:

Thanks mate. It was doing great but definitely in a rough patch right now.

I think it's a good strategy though. I intend on trading it for a while. Hopefully people get something out of this thread.

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I think most system traders are in a rough patch right now. But you just have to stick with it if you believe in the system--no matter how great a system is it will always have a rough patch. People reckon trading systems is easy--just place your buy/sells and close your computer. Not that easy when it's not going so well. Good luck and stick with it.

Warr87 said:

Thanks mate. It was doing great but definitely in a rough patch right now.

I think it's a good strategy though. I intend on trading it for a while. Hopefully people get something out of this thread.

Click to expand...

some changes to the indexes coming ( am not sure how close you try to track the index

good luck

S&P Dow Jones Indices Announces March 2023
Quarterly Rebalance of the S&P/ASX Indices
SYDNEY, MARCH 3, 2023: S&P Dow Jones Indices announced today the changes in the S&P/ASX
Indices, effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, March 20, 2023, as a result of the March
quarterly review.
S&P/ASX 20 Index – Effective Prior to the Open on March 20, 2023
Action Code Company
Addition S32 South32 Limited
Removal JHX James Hardie Industries PLC

S&P/ASX 50 Index – No change.

S&P/ASX 100 Index – Effective Prior to the Open on March 20, 2023
Action Code Company
Addition NHF NIB Holdings Limited
Addition TNE Technology One Limited
Removal ARB ARB Corporation Limited
Removal SGR The Star Entertainment Group Limited

S&P/ASX 200 Index – Effective Prior to the Open on March 20, 2023
Action Code Company
Addition 360 Life360 Inc.
Addition NWH NRW Holdings Limited
Addition PNV Polynovo Limited
Addition SYR Syrah Resources Limited
Removal ABC Adbri Limited
Removal NVX Novonix Limited
Removal RMS Ramelius Resources Limited
Removal SIQ Smartgroup Corporation Limited

S&P/ASX 300 Index – Effective Prior to the Open on March 20, 2023
Action Code Company
Addition ADT Adriatic Metals PLC
Addition BCB Bowen Coking Coal Limited
Addition EBO EBOS Group Limited
Addition HAS Hastings Technology Metals Limited
Addition RIC Ridley Corporation Limited
Addition RNU Renascor Resources Limited
Addition RSG Resolute Mining Limited
Addition SLX Silex Systems Limited
Addition TER Terracom Limited
Addition TIE Tietto Minerals Limited
Addition TLG Talga Group Limited
Addition WBT Weebit Nano Limited
Removal AMI Aurelia Metals Limited
Removal ASM Australian Strategic Materials Limited
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Removal BVS Bravura Solutions Limited
Removal CCX City Chic Collective Limited
Removal CVN Carnarvon Energy Limited
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Removal PGH Pact Group Holdings Limited
Removal SXL Southern Cross Media Group Limited

All Ordinaries – Effective Prior to the Open on March 20, 2023
Action Code Company
Addition A11 Atlantic Lithium Limited
Addition A1M Aic Mines Limited
Addition AIZ Air New Zealand Limited
Addition ANG Austin Engineering Limited
Addition APZ Aspen Group
Addition ASN Anson Resources Limited
Addition ATA Atturra Limited
Addition AVR Anteris Technologies Limited
Addition BCB Bowen Coking Coal Limited
Addition C79 Chrysos Corporation Limited
Addition CKA Cokal Limited
Addition COB Cobalt Blue Holdings Limited
Addition D2O Duxton Water Limited
Addition DRE Dreadnought Resources Limited
Addition GAL Galileo Mining Limited
Addition GDG Generation Development Group Limited
Addition GL1 Global Lithium Resources Limited
Addition GNX Genex Power Limited
Addition HFR Highfield Resources Limited
Addition HZN Horizon Oil Limited
Addition IFT Infratil Limited
Addition IGL Ive Group Limited
Addition IOD Iodm Limited
Addition IPG Ipd Group Limited
Addition IVZ Invictus Energy Limited
Addition KPG Kelly Partners Group Holdings Limited
Addition KSC K & S Corporation Limited
Addition KSL Kina Securities Limited
Addition LAU Lindsay Australia Limited
Addition LIN Lindian Resources Limited
Addition LPI Lithium Power International Limited
Addition LRS Latin Resources Limited
Addition LYL Lycopodium Limited
Addition MAY Melbana Energy Limited
Addition MRM MMA Offshore Limited
Addition NTU Northern Minerals Limited
Addition NXD Nexted Group Limited
Addition NZM Nzme Limited
Addition PEN Peninsula Energy Limited
Addition PGC Paragon Care Limited
Addition PLY Playside Studios Limited
Addition QRI Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund
Addition RDT Red Dirt Metals Limited
Addition RHI Red Hill Minerals Limited
Addition SM1 Synlait Milk Limited
Addition SMP Smartpay Holdings Limited
Addition SRG SRG Global Limited
Addition SRL Sunrise Energy Metals Limited
Addition SVM Sovereign Metals Limited
Addition TBN Tamboran Resources Limited
Addition TER Terracom Limited
Addition TGP 360 Capital Group
Addition THL Tourism Holdings Rentals Limited
Addition URF US Masters Residential Property Fund
Addition VIT Vitura Health Limited
Addition WOT Wotso Property
Removal 3DP Pointerra Limited
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Removal WGN Wagners Holding Company Limited
Removal WSP Whispir Limited
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S&P/ASX All Technology Index – Effective Prior to the Open on March 20, 2023
Action Code Company
Removal CTT Cettire Limited
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Any changes to constituent data can be viewed in the proforma files delivered to client SFTP accounts
after market close today.
Any changes to index shares data for capped and equal weighted indices will be made available in
proforma files delivered to client SFTP accounts after market close on Friday, March 10, 2023.

DYOR

Yea I definitely agree. I did also highlight at the beginning that my current config of the strat is higher risk. While my gains were amplified with the super contributions, they are also amplified with my losses. Something I knew, but didn't expect it so soon after starting the trade.

Thanks for the vote of confidence! Good to know I have an audience

I changed out 6 positions this month and was a bit of a loser month. Will put up the proper post in the next few days.

Beginning of month 31

Another disappointing month. 6 change outs. I am now back into negative territory (I've been taking into considering my monthly additions of super contributions). Account is -1%.

For the most part I still appear to be taking the same movements as the index. I can't wait for the market to shift to at least a flat/slight upwards market.

Beginning 32

I had the time to check a few times intra-month. A few days difference saw some interesting changes (from +ve to -ve, back to +ve again). Overall, it seemed to slightly go up or remain flat. Overall, was an alright month. It's still a turbulent time for slow trend systems like this one (particularly as I removed the index filter). I will note that Nick's original strategy does have the filter that would definitely have been active and so the drawdown would not be as severe. Though I knowingly had a riskier strat to aim for the great PL%. I'm still fine with this choice but it has certainly been hard to continue to trade.

Beginning 33

The month was going great but I noticed the account drifting down. After I had a look at the positions, I was confused as almost all were +ve. However, it looks like one position in particular dragged down my accounts performance: AX1. Otherwise, I have a small loss on one other position, the rest all have some gains (small, but they're +ve nonetheless). So while I have finished in the -ve territory, I'm actually happy with it right now. Given the chopping market, I haven't been able to accumulate the winners -- I've just been dumping positions, rather frequently. I will have 2-4 changes this month. So why am I happy? Well, it seems to be doing what trend/momentum systems do when they first start out: accumulate some positions, slowly discharge some losing positions and stay in +ve positions. In a month or two I hope to have far stronger portfolio with some momentum, I hope.