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Mojo : Metals, Oil, Coal and Banks

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threats and promises


OSINTdefender

@sentdefender
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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) has been spreading Threats today across several of their Channels, claiming that if Israel decides to launch an Attack on the Iranian Oil Industry, then they will Retaliate with Strike against Oil Facilities in Azerbaijan, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates
 
We hope so, that the above mentioned stocks including BPT make an uptick since oil was up last night. (don't think the big boys are watching what we're chatting about, so safe to whisper in your ears to check the price of oil now to before market opens, btw, it's slightly red) The needle's static. Also, this is news trading. Don't think oil has made a trend yet, GG. I could be wrong. There's a huge difference between news following and trend following. WDS and BPT are above what I think is the moving average, the huge gaps up lately deserves some caution. All good if they go well, but painful if not. So tempting to buy and hold now since these stocks are so low as they are now...all the best...
 
I suppose muppets like me will be buying energy stocks today on the premise that they won’t fall any further in the short term and fear of missing out on a sudden big rise.

Everyone except the ole Trump says POO won’t rise. What does he know .

Then again for all his faults he is now less than 30 trading days from winning the election to be next POTUS. So I reckon he is correct and all the experts are wrong on the POO.

@eskys I started this before your post came up so it’s only you, me, @Dona Ferentes and his mate on Twitter/X who know.

gg
 
eskys said:
It's only you, me and Dona who knows. His mate is having surgery and won't be around for a couple of days, @Garpal Gumnut

Oil has gone green again, seems volatile
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Yes volatility can mess with your head.

I’m in the local shopping centre with poor coverage with my VPN and the local braves looking mischievous so it’s a good excuse to do nothing without having to negotiate Comsec on an old iPhone.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Yes volatility can mess with your head.

I’m in the local shopping centre with poor coverage with my VPN and the local braves looking mischievous so it’s a good excuse to do nothing without having to negotiate Comsec on an old iPhone.

gg
Click to expand...
Good choice...love hanging out in shopping centres, the busyness, foot traffic, food stalls, cafes, weird kind of ambience that's attractive.

Goind off thread for a minute, you have Country Road in your shopping centre? Looks like retailers having a bad time....they had a meeting yesterday, news of retrenchment....snippet below, and a bit of other news:

The boss of scandal-ridden Country Road Group has conceded the fashion house has suffered its worst financial performance in its history and demands a total relook at its structure, new leadership teams and cutting costs – which will likely lead to job losses.

In a strategic play to survive, canned food company SPC, The Original Juice Co and powdered milk business Nature One will merge to create a new, bigger food manufacturer that will have more than $400m in annual sales and a stronger voice when dealing with the supermarket giants.


A bankruptcy dispute between billionaire Richard White and Sydney based beauty entrepreneur Linda Rogan “might be ugly”, a court has heard.
 


Just another day in paradiso.

I'm not much in to investing in retail to be honest. The coffee was nice.

gg
 
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Garpal Gumnut said:
....Oil is moving up tonight so your concentration on its price is wise. Maybe give our Aussie dog WDS a feed tomorrow. Or STO.
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and putting words in his mouth?

US President Joe Biden triggered a powerful surge in global oil markets on Thursday (Friday AEST), after suggesting that Iran’s oil fields might be the target of any Israeli retaliatory attack.

The price of West Texas Intermediate jumped more than 5 per cent, nearing $US74 a barrel, after President Biden said Israel and the US were “discussing” a strike on Iranian oil facilities.
 
Geopolitical

“Global oil supply is increasing, but demand growth is very much muted. The geopolitical risk linked to Middle East continues, and it's very important to see how the new kind of U.S. policy is going to be going forward. 17% of the shipped oil hitting the market is sanctioned and 6% of global consumption includes sanctioned barrels.”
- Lars Barstad, CEO, Frontline Plc [one of the largest oil tanker shipping companies in the world]​
 
It is a topsy turvy world and no more so than in Commodities, base and precious metals and currencies. I've been doing a bit of reading up on all three via online newspapers and magazines, brokers info and news items and the usual rubbish from youtoob and TV.

I've finally worked out how I feel about the direction which these will take.

  • Over the next 3 months : No idea really except for cocoa and uranium. Everyone says cocoa and uranium are going up so I'll buy some at Coles this weekend. Mrs Gumnut will push the uranium trolley. Perhaps some short term falls in Iron ore and gold. There is just too much geopolitical kerfuffling and waiting for Trump to get on his horse for any of the commentators to speculate short term.
  • The rest of the year. : Good for mostly everything especially Copper, Iron ore, Uranium, Gold, $USD and Bitcoin. Bad for oil. $AUD will recover a bit compared to all currencies except $UUSD.

And then, just a few days before Trump's Inauguration he drops dead from natural causes and it is back to the drawing board. He is not a young man and he is a golfer so the chances of him carking it are better than successfully predicting the movements above.

gg
 
It is Mojo time again. There is every likelihood that there will be a significant fall in the NASDAQ this week taking much of the US market with it. Semi's look perilous and it is likely that there will be no interest rate reductions from the Fed in 2025.

US Banks were tipped to go higher but I'm not convinced that will happen. It sounds as if bonds will be back in favour. Interestingly in the UK which is in the grip of what seems like forever negativity both socially and financially the threat of Stagflation looms.

Where goes the NASDAQ over the last 3-5 years there goes the rest of the market. PErhaps there may be a disconnect but I cannot see that happening.

Our market, so dependant, on China may avoid much of the mayhem as long as the ALP don't further regulate or muck up the Material and energy sectors.

Where to from here. Your guess is as good as anyone else's . Unfortunately there are so many knee and thigh bones that there is a complete disconnect between old sureties. Cash and Gold may be the answer but who knows.

It is Mojo time, big time.


gg
 
banks lose their collective mojo

- CBA reported, and the others gave updates.

YTD, and CBA ex dividend of $2.25 (about 1.5%)




 
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