MMX - Murchison Metals

[shaunm]

MMX is a real basket case right now.
When you consider the heady heights it hit before the October correction ($6 and above).
Is this planned merger/takeover of MIS a "poison chalice".
The only beneficiaries so far seems to be MIS, and I have to say some of their responses to the MMX proposal have been a bit over the top. The make reference to the superior performance of their share price....yeah right:nuts: what was it all of $3.20 before the announcement.
MMX have Mitsubishi behind them and they appear to have state Govt. support for the rail infrastructure so why is this happening.

I'm still in profit but expected to be further ahead. I'm going to hold as sense has to prevail soon.

 

[shaunm]

Any other MMX holders wish they had never had a go at MIS??
I really wish they would just p*ss them off and let them fight with the WA govt over a rail line.
...and how about that release from MIS today, it looked like a Liberal party ad with big red letters all over it!?:

MIS really look like they are slagging off MMX, and they are still raving about their share price doing "so well".

Arghhh... I wish Mr. Kopetjka never went down there!

 

[Lachlan6]

(MMX) tracing out a classical running flat pattern currently. i have been short term bearish this for a little while. Currently in a wave iii downward move within what should be 5 waves off. Will post a chart later.

 

[hookon]

Any other MMX holders wish they had never had a go at MIS??
I really wish they would just p*ss them off and let them fight with the WA govt over a rail line.
...and how about that release from MIS today, it looked like a Liberal party ad with big red letters all over it!?:

MIS really look like they are slagging off MMX, and they are still raving about their share price doing "so well".

Arghhh... I wish Mr. Kopetjka never went down there!

totally agree in share price terms but in the end mis just playin hard ball for a better price & everyone knows they are going to get it.
MIs is so negative MMX that the directors are shorely mis representing there shareholders. In response to there rejection to our offer the compnay paid to give advise never even went to visit MMX or ask its staff any q's. how can u value a company if u know nothing about it. Shorly MIS have said make sure the report is negative we want a better price. The only thing left is how much will we pay & when will we offer more. The top 20 shareholders have rejected - the board says reject & brokers are saying wait they will offer more.

 

[happytown]

as per yesterday's ann, mmx will be releasing an update today on the potential of the jack hills resource to counter claims made by mis,

Murchison is currently preparing a detailed announcement which will contain information supporting Murchison’s resource potential of 375 million tonnes from the Jack Hills Project. This announcement is expected to be issued before the close of trading tomorrow (22 November 2007) ...

further they intend to release a revised jorc next week,

Murchison currently expects to be in a position to release an updated JORC compliant resource statement during the week commencing Monday 26 November 2007.

whether this can halt the sp slide, only time and 2 anns will tell

cheers

 

[shaunm]

I have off-loaded my stock and won't consider getting back in until this MIS-take merger-mess is sorted.
The US jitters ain't helping either.
Could the so-called "Santa Rally" be under threat this year

 

[aaronphetamine]

After buying and selling lots between 4.90 and 5.30 the past few weeks and making some profits I thought a buy in at 4.60 was a sure way to offload them a bit higher the next day after such a big drop... well i was wrong !

Im not selling my parcel at this price, it will come back, just a matter of time and a change in the sector sentiment. After what seems likes days of constant 3-5% drops it can only go so far.

Remember in august the price dropped far but rebounded spectacuarily.

Either way, MMX WILL come back to record highs at some point hopefully soonish

 

[grace]

There is a new announcement on MMX this evening which won't excite the market tomorrow. It's in relation to the Crosslands tenaments in 2004 over some of Jack Hills. MMX are refuting but it will have to be defended.

 

[prawn_86]

Either way, MMX WILL come back to record highs at some point hopefully soonish

Got any analysis to back that up aaron? :

Its a strong statement without any qualifying/quantifying words

 

[aaronphetamine]

hahha nah mate i dont, i said it to make myself feel better haha. you know, a little bit of self re assurance

 

[TheAbyss]

Looks like MMX has found a bottom today. Climbing back up again post the AGM which must have instilled some confidence going buy the afternoon rally.

Interesting times for holders that is for sure. MIS bid, Legal challenges from failed enterprises (Chameleon), production happening and potential resource upgrades all happening or at the least possible.

 

[thierry]

Interesting to see mmx take a hit today.. when the share market was stable, and commodities were quite strong..

I hope the report to be released is complete and to the point regarding the takeover and the legal action.

Given it's valued at $7 by hsbc(posted few posts back) .. it seems very underpriced..

 

[TheAbyss]

Latest resource upgrade is out. I have highlighted 2 key points which are that this UG is for just 2 of the zones and there is potential for increased resource in all zones.

JACK HILLS MINERAL RESOURCE INCREASED TO 153 MT
Highlights:
• Jack Hills JORC compliant Mineral Resource increased by 58% to 153Mt
• JORC compliant Mineral Resource now comprises:
o DSO – 69.6Mt at 60.3% Fe and
o Beneficiation feed – 83.4Mt at 42.3% Fe
• Updated Mineral Resource covers the Saddle and Mt Matthew zones only
• Further resource potential exists at all zones and further resource updates will be
announced as resource modelling and drilling continues
• Beneficiation feed amenable to simple and conventional crushing, grinding and
screening and will produce a premium quality feedstock keenly sought by steel
mills

 

[lamot1]

The 58% increase in JORC compliant mineral reserves at Jack Hills announced today has had little effect on halting this share price slide. Might have something to do with the MIS announcement that the company was in 'Discussions with Interested Parties' (ie most likely NOT MMX).

I have seen the buy recommendations and the $7+ broker valuations but I am starting to become nervous. The market just seems to really dislike this stock at the moment. As one of the silly few who jumped in well above $5 not long ago is it time to bail out or stick to my guns? Does anyone see market sentiment turning on this one in the short term?

 

[michael_selway]

The 58% increase in JORC compliant mineral reserves at Jack Hills announced today has had little effect on halting this share price slide. Might have something to do with the MIS announcement that the company was in 'Discussions with Interested Parties' (ie most likely NOT MMX).

I have seen the buy recommendations and the $7+ broker valuations but I am starting to become nervous. The market just seems to really dislike this stock at the moment. As one of the silly few who jumped in well above $5 not long ago is it time to bail out or stick to my guns? Does anyone see market sentiment turning on this one in the short term?

Hm its quite expensive

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-08 0.7 568.6 --
Year Ending 30-06-09 4.7 84.7 571.4%

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -13.7 0.7 4.7 5.9
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Date: 8/11/2007
Author: Paul Garvey
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 26
Murchison Metals is confident about its takeover bid for rival iron ore miner,Midwest Corporation. However, Midwest has revealed that Murchison has littlehope of gaining full control. Shareholders holding 45 per cent of its shareshave said that they will not accept the offer. Midwest's board is expectedto reject the bid. It holds concerns about the size of Murchison'sresources and the lack of synergies without full control

 

[thierry]

Unbelievable.. mmx upgrades it resource estimate then goes down.. midwest goes up on speculation of a takeover..

How does the eps of midwest compare to mmx?

 

[shaunm]

I personally know of a few people who sold off major holidings in MMX to buy into MIS when the takeover was announced. Perhaps this explains the surprising difference in SP performance.

 

[lamot1]

I can't really get a handle on the market for this stock at the moment. After the MIS Sinosteel announcement that looks to have squashed the current MMX bid, the stock opens strongly on reasonable volumes. However looking at the market depth I don't see any really large buyers getting in.

My guess is a little bit of market speculation that MMX may itself become a target, which looks a little cheaper now courtesy of the recent slide in its share price. Could/would Sino be interested as a means of ensuring access to the new port and rail infrastructure?

Just my thoughts, I would be interested to see any information either supporting or to the contrary on this.

 

[shaunm]

I was thinking that too,but don't forget Mitsubishi have a pretty large stake in MMX so I don't know whether that will limit an M&A activity.

 

[thierry]

How's this for 2 conflicting reports .. the first one is from an unknown 'trader' so it seems a bit strange it would make the newswires..


1117 [Dow Jones] Midwest (MIS.AU) up 8.3% at A$5.25 on reopening after Sinosteel bid A$5.60 cash. Murchison (MMX.AU) up 6.1% at A$4.15 on short covering as share price dilution won't be issue if it fails to counterbid against Sinosteel's offer. Some feel MMX is longer-term bearish if it can't get MIS. "I think Murchison is good shorting because I think it (prospect of Sinosteel securing MIS) makes their project completely unviable," says trader. Suggests MMX needs MIS for economies of scale in regards to planned ports and rail infrastructure. "I think they are going back to A$2.00. They've got no resource base of any note. They've got 153 million tons resources and they need this MIS to get to a billion." MMX chart looks positive, however, with A$3.60 likely to hold for test of potential bull triangle resistance line around A$5.00. Longer-term issue is whether Sinosteel moves on Murchison. (DWR)


1127 [Dow Jones] Merrill Lynch says Murchison Metals (MMX.AU) is a Buy and looks capable of adding to its iron ore resources. Murchison has upped its Jack Hills resource 58% to 153 million metric tons; ML says there are other resources not included in this figure. "We expect these areas to add significant additional resources," ML says. Says MMX needs to define between 400 million and 500 million tons to deliver on planned production and that, while this is a big ask, "Jack Hills still looks as if it will be the best ore body in the Mid West". Target price set at A$7. Murchison trading up 6.4% at A$4.16. (APW)