MMX - Murchison Metals

[GreatPig]

Starting to push up nicely from a large saucer bottom.

It seems they got a "Please Explain" regarding the recent increases in their share price, with their response here.

I bought in a few days ago at 33.5 cents, so it's going well for me so far

Cheers,
GP

 

[el_ninj0]

Looking very good there GP. Whats your predictions on how far this will go? I'm thinking at least another 30 cents.

 

[GreatPig]

I generally don't like to try and predict targets, unless it's some sort of pattern that has a common target (like triangles). This one may too, but if so, I'm not sure what it is.

I prefer to just set a fail level (ie. stop/loss) and ride it until it's triggered. Sometimes I get caught out though. I've had a couple of cases where a stock has reached a price that I've felt may be near its current peak for whatever reason, but waited until I've seen a clear fail signal, only to have it fail in a big down day and wipe out a fair bit of profit.

Still, you win some, you lose some

So far I can't complain overall.

Cheers,
GP

 

[GreatPig]

MMX has been suspended from trading, one of a handful of companies that failed to lodge their full year accounts for the last financial year as per the listing rules.

I still hold a bit of this, so is that a particularly bad sign, or not uncommon?

Cheers,
GP

 

[markrmau]

GP, I seem to be buying your dregs

I recently bought grr at 1.11 and mmx at .40 (only small holding)

They have released the annual report so I presume reinstatement tomorrow.

 

[imajica]

Was wondering what everyone thought of this stock.

Currently trading at 60 cents. Recent broker report values the company at over $2 per share.

Have some extremely promising iron ore operations in the pipeline with government support for infrastructure.

Seems like a medium to long term winner, what does everyone think?

 

[BSD]

Looks very good at the moment with some very steady accumulation from insto dealers.

The same dealers who were buying in the first spurt the stock took to $0.60 have re-emerged after the recent release of the pre-feasibility report.

Very good volume shifting a great deal of stock into patient hands.

Excellent opportunity to accumulate these as they re-rate towards their NPV of $2.00+ as the project progresses

Using a very simplistic comparison, the current $155m market cap of MMX with planned 25mtpa production looks appealing compared to the $1.9 billion valuation for FMG with plans for 45mtpa.

Fair bit of water to go under the bridge yet though.

 

[BSD]

A chunky O/S crossing of 5 million shares last night appears to have shifted the 60 cent seller

Good volume today pushing up through 66 cents at one stage today.

Will be interesting to see who the buyer was considering Merrills have been accumulating

Anyone else following these?

It is a long term story, but compelling

 

[snapper_man]

Had a look at this one a few months ago, from memory around .38 at the time. Concluded that it might worth a punt but in the coming weeks lost my nerve. Looks like a bit more courage was in order.
A bit of risk as will not be turning a real profit for some time - 2012? What will iron ore be worth then? A big outlay required by a fairly small comp both for project and infrastructure rail/port project so funding issue/risk.
Any news of rail/port go ahead especially terms favourable to mmx and commitment from WA govt will give these guys a big boost.
Couple of broker reports valuing over $2! Interested in any comments.

Cheers
T

 

[56gsa]

MMX seems to have big plans but a long way to go - they are talking probably $2bn in infrastructure for Oakajee but have only identified 68mt of ore as resource - and of that they seem to suggest only 8.5mt is reserve (high grade?)

current drilling has a target of 380mt (presumably over 60% fe) but this has taken a long time to complete - even then at 25mtpa this wouldn't in itself seem to justify the investment in the port/ 350km rail etc

GBG was going to join the party but latest release suggests they are happy with Geraldton port - which MGX and MIS are currently using

long time to wait and what will happen to commodities in the mean time

but ST may see some action based on apparent progress... certainly have the interest of some big players

 

[sweetbarrister]

Wake up people is about to break through $1.00. We have all been missing this one. Watch the rise and volume. The rise will be consistent. this is not a stock that rises and falls. It just rises .Please se the graph.

 

[SevenFX]

Wake up people is about to break through $1.00. We have all been missing this one. Watch the rise and volume. The rise will be consistent. this is not a stock that rises and falls. It just rises .Please se the graph.

Nice Predicition SB, as hit $1.20 yesterday.

 

[sweetbarrister]

Yes ladies and gentleman this one is a long term. Look at Fortescue a couple of years back and then look forward on this stock. I did so and could only see a sea of dollars!!

 

[wahoo]

Just rang their office 2day - after the arrival date of the ship it will take 2 days to load the ore aboard the ship and she'll be ready 2go - according to the Geralton port website the 'Delray' arrives into port this Sunday to load up 60 000t of ore for Murchison Metals. Yezzah!

I'm jus learnin charts - but if that is the start of wave 3 a week or so ago, then hopefully with the clean rise of price and volume, combined with their first income $$$$ coming soon - there should be a nice long climb to the peak of wave 3 (I'd appreciate feedback......)

Oh yeah, just as an aside - this is an all time high with good volume!

 

[Sean K]

Looks like a breakout on your chart through the short term resistance wahoo. (by the way, a very nice eating fish!)

Another perspective is the 3 year weekly that shows almost a pole and flag formation, ready to break up. The last hammer candle is very bullish. Opens higher, falls, buyers swoop in to send it higher....

From an EW perspective, I'm not sure if it can fit the profile all that well. The counts are tenuous IMO.

Looks good.

 

[mmmmining]

I don't understand chart a lot. From the chart, there are a lot of buying opportunities and signals previously. Maybe the latest is the one, but a dangerous one. My understanding is the stage 2 of the project worth a lot of money, but needs a lot of capital too. I am kind of remember that a research done by Huntley valued MMX a $1.6 something stock.

 

[wahoo]

Yeah Hartleys put $1.54 on it

They've a 2 stage plan - the first 5 years is stage 1 of Jack hill. Contracts for the first year 1.8mt = US$100m in sales

The big picture is by 2010 have stage 2 running 25mt/yr, they've formed a consortium of big names to reduce risk for stage 2 infrastructure - Oakajee port and a choo choo - shared by a few co's. AU$1.5bill is what they're talkin - feasability study due mid this year.

Contract with POSCO for up to 10mt/year for the next 25 years. They've got nice clean rich ore - direct shipping

Lookin pretty good this mornin - down to 7 sellers for a while

 

[wahoo]

Great Ann. this mornin - POSCO have exercised the rest of their options early (another $5mill for the kitty) - this is a solid display of confidence in the way things are progressing at MMX

So this brings POSCO's stake up to 11.95% - as part of their agreement "POSCO also has the right to nominate a representative to the Board of Murchison Metals if its shareholding interest increases to 19.9%". So that leaves only 7.95% for them to accumulate to get some real power in their ore supplier - they're not going to do this right now - but its too nice an opening for them to resist later on.

Can't wait for next week when the maiden shipment sails - hopefully see the new pole spike in the charts over the coming weeks when everyone realises MMX are in production!

Here's the progress on the weekly chart - its lookin good, wide divergence on the MACD, u can see that the new pole is forming - it took 4-5 weeks for the pole to form up to the flag - so if everything goes to plan - does it take another 4-5 weeks for this pole to form this side as well? similar height?

 

[wahoo]

Just rang Geraldton Port Authority - they've just sent the 'pilot' out to the ship - the Delray will be in port in an hour - secretary says its only alongside for 2 days

SP is treading water comfortably above the flag - nice long tails on the last 3 days trading - its looking good! Just consolidating b4 the rocket midweek

 

[wahoo]

Someones got a wiff of something - overseas crossed trade of 100k @ $1.35 in premarket and then a single order 100k went for $1.38 at open