Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MMS - McMillan Shakespeare

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election date set to be 7 of september with the odds on that date at $1.01 on sportsbet. I wonder how the price of MMS will react to the announcement of the election date; id expect it to go up with some certainty as to the demise of Rudd.

Could be a good first trade, just a little excited :D
 
db94 said:
election date set to be 7 of september with the odds on that date at $1.01 on sportsbet. I wonder how the price of MMS will react to the announcement of the election date; id expect it to go up with some certainty as to the demise of Rudd.

Could be a good first trade, just a little excited :D
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Don't see how this is a good thing for MMS. The orig date was 14th Sept, KRudd just made it 1 week earlier - imo thats a sign of strength. Someone behind in the polls would want to buy more time for a shift in sentiment or for some serious campaigning.

As mentioned by craft, auto sales come out 19th Aug and 17th Sept fwiw. In the meantime I would just expect MMS to chop around.
 
Surely this is going to rocket up closer to the election date? Bookies have Coalition at 1.18 and are rarely wrong in general. How has this stock not gone back up more!
 
twojacks28 said:
Surely this is going to rocket up closer to the election date? Bookies have Coalition at 1.18 and are rarely wrong in general. How has this stock not gone back up more!
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that the dilemma ..

Bookies said Lib will win
Current Poll said Labor win :)

50/50% from here on...no sure bet...
 
ROE said:
that the dilemma ..

Bookies said Lib will win
Current Poll said Labor win :)

50/50% from here on...no sure bet...
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Not sure what polls you're referring to but all the ones I have seen suggest otherwise. Mainly 52-48 to the Coalition.
 
twojacks28 said:
Not sure what polls you're referring to but all the ones I have seen suggest otherwise. Mainly 52-48 to the Coalition.
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yep polls are around 52-48

The bookies obviously have the odds like that for a reason, i highly doubt labor has a chance of winning.

The stock has been performing well, since the beginning of august its gone up $1 or 12%.

I think it hasnt skyrocketed back to or near its previous highs is because the election period is full of uncertainty. Abbott could well bugger things up before the election and it be all over for him and MMS.

Also I think there's the uncertainty of auto sales figures
 
db94 said:
yep polls are around 52-48

The bookies obviously have the odds like that for a reason, i highly doubt labor has a chance of winning.

The stock has been performing well, since the beginning of august its gone up $1 or 12%.

I think it hasnt skyrocketed back to or near its previous highs is because the election period is full of uncertainty. Abbott could well bugger things up before the election and it be all over for him and MMS.

Also I think there's the uncertainty of auto sales figures
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All I know is I'm putting all I got into it tomorrow :D
 
twojacks28 said:
All I know is I'm putting all I got into it tomorrow :D
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all the best. im gonna jump in some time soon too but i dunno when yet. just sitting and waiting for the perfect opportunity

- - - Updated - - -

ROE said:
AFR Election article that tally up all the poll and average it out ...

Labor ahead 1% but like I say it's 50/50 because the poll is too close to
really pick winner...

http://data.afr.com/polling.aspx?type=pops&dimensions=wide

We probably have a better idea I say a few day out from polling day
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this shows it at 52/48 as stated
 
Big risk big reward. Hopefully it pays off soon. Good luck to all those that are currently in and or considering it. :xyxthumbs
 
twojacks28 said:
Big risk big reward. Hopefully it pays off soon.
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Don't forget the other side of that equation, "Big risk, big loss."

I see it all the time in many aspects of life, people prepared to take high risks for potential high gains - who then whinge incessantly when the risk comes home to roost and instead they realise, or become aware of the potential for huge losses.
 
twojacks28 said:
Big risk big reward. Hopefully it pays off soon. Good luck to all those that are currently in and or considering it. :xyxthumbs
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MMS will not be the same stock again. What happens in 3 years time at the next election? Do we go through the same thing where the business looking at potentially losing half it's profit again? Or in another 3 years?

What sort of risk premium would investors put on a stock that has a large part of its earnings subjected to politically charged, potential disappearance at irregular intervals?

The market got complacent at $18 which really was perfect-sunshine-forever valuation. Will the market make the same mistake again on MMS? My guess is probably not for a very long time.
 
skc said:
MMS will not be the same stock again. What happens in 3 years time at the next election? Do we go through the same thing where the business looking at potentially losing half it's profit again?
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This is the only reason I held back...

Has there been another listed company where changes in legislation have threatened profitability in a similar way? I'd like to see how that played out...
 
Klogg said:
This is the only reason I held back...

Has there been another listed company where changes in legislation have threatened profitability in a similar way? I'd like to see how that played out...
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Yes CAB. Didn't go well.
 
skc said:
The market got complacent at $18 which really was perfect-sunshine-forever valuation.
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SKC

Could I get a few more thoughts on this over at the PV of future cash flows thread if you have the time.

Thanks
 
galumay said:
Don't forget the other side of that equation, "Big risk, big loss."

I see it all the time in many aspects of life, people prepared to take high risks for potential high gains - who then whinge incessantly when the risk comes home to roost and instead they realise, or become aware of the potential for huge losses.
Click to expand...
Of course, that's a given.

skc said:
MMS will not be the same stock again. What happens in 3 years time at the next election? Do we go through the same thing where the business looking at potentially losing half it's profit again? Or in another 3 years?

What sort of risk premium would investors put on a stock that has a large part of its earnings subjected to politically charged, potential disappearance at irregular intervals?

The market got complacent at $18 which really was perfect-sunshine-forever valuation. Will the market make the same mistake again on MMS? My guess is probably not for a very long time.
Click to expand...

I've considered this already. Won't get back to the same levels because of the reasons you've mentioned. I think closer to the election though it will go up more and I'll pull out if all is going as planned.
 
twojacks28 said:
Big risk big reward. Hopefully it pays off soon. Good luck to all those that are currently in and or considering it. :xyxthumbs
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The risk vs reward is simply to attractive to ignore. A conservative estimate of where the MMS price will go should the coalition win (high probability at this stage) is $13-$14 / share. ~50% gain at the current price.
 
FxTrader said:
The risk vs reward is simply to attractive to ignore. A conservative estimate of where the MMS price will go should the coalition win (high probability at this stage) is $13-$14 / share. ~50% gain at the current price.
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I can understand your point of view, but have you considered the fact that people may be reluctant to go through with this sort of car leasing arrangement given it may come into question again in the future?

In that case, you may have flat or declining earnings for a year or two (I don't know the area well enough to put a probability on this).
And this is without considering the effect the possible tax changes would have on investor sentiment relating to MMS.

Too many unknowns for me - I'll most likely be wrong, but I'll just take is as a lesson learnt.
 

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