I think the outcome of the election has been factored in as an all but certain event, I sold out on Monday for $12.15. I could be wrong but im happy to take my profit and look for something else, I met my target price here.
MMS - McMillan Shakespeare
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I think the outcome of the election has been factored in as an all but certain event, I sold out on Monday for $12.15. I could be wrong but im happy to take my profit and look for something else, I met my target price here.
very nice
Ill be watching closely and seeing what happens. im not as optimistic as I was beforeNice ride ... I think you did well I don't think it goes past 12-13 bucks even if abbot wins, just my opinion...
And if not you wish you are out -
The damage to the economy is really starting to stack up.
With the amount of evidence building as to the economic impacts of removing the FBT statutory method – I doubt that Labour would legislate what they have proposed even if they win. Probably can’t afford politically to back down in the campaign – but can’t economically afford this sort of shock to an industry if in power either. A 1.8 Billion ‘proposed’ saving that will have many times that of negative impact on the economy and they would now know that from the post announcement impacts and belated consultation.
http://www.afla.com.au/downloads/AFLA%20FBT%2020%20AUG.pdf
AFMA looks at impacts beyond Novated leases.
With the amount of evidence building as to the economic impacts of removing the FBT statutory method – I doubt that Labour would legislate what they have proposed even if they win. Probably can’t afford politically to back down in the campaign – but can’t economically afford this sort of shock to an industry if in power either. A 1.8 Billion ‘proposed’ saving that will have many times that of negative impact on the economy and they would now know that from the post announcement impacts and belated consultation.
http://www.afla.com.au/downloads/AFLA%20FBT%2020%20AUG.pdf
AFMA looks at impacts beyond Novated leases.
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Nice ride ... I think you did well I don't think it goes past 12-13 bucks even if abbot wins, just my opinion...
And if not you wish you are out -
The ALP moved up to $8.00 this morning to win and it is now at $9.50 at close of day. It seems that the bookies are almost completely ruling them out more and more each day. It is interesting that this time the move in these odds were not reflected in the market today, obviously those odds may not be 100% accurate as they are also exposed to current opinions as well but up until now the betting odds and the MMS price movements have been very highly correlated. It may be showing that the market has fully priced the election result in now so the outcome of the election as an event alone may no longer have as a significant impact on the SP moving forward.
It could take the market long time (if ever) to 'forgive' this large dip in price with the legislative risk looming over the company. kind of like an 'investor beware' warning.
MMS is due to report tomorrow. The uncertainty around an immanent update from the company probably more meaningful to the market today than pricing in changes to the election odds.
MMS is due to report tomorrow. The uncertainty around an immanent update from the company probably more meaningful to the market today than pricing in changes to the election odds.
what kind of report? (sorry if silly question) Isnt the annual report released on the 9th of September?
What ever it is, if its good MMS could adjust for the $9.00 odds now. Although I personally think MMS has factored in the election result.
If bad, who knows what'll happen.
skc
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what kind of report? (sorry if silly question) Isnt the annual report released on the 9th of September?
What ever it is, if its good MMS could adjust for the $9.00 odds now. Although I personally think MMS has factored in the election result.
MMS reporting their FY13 financials. The numbers themselves are already known and there shouldn't be any surprises at all. MMS however may provide updates on some of the following:
- H1 FY14 trading so far
- More detailed numbers on the impact of potential changes
- FY14 guidance
- Other measures currently being explored by the company
Remember the election result is a binary event... while betting odds are linear. The difference between $5 and $9 odd is significant only to the person making such bets. It has no bearing for MMS, and MMS is most definitely a bet on the election no more.
Definately a good argument about the betting odds. The only point I was trying to make is the fact that up until yesterday the betting odds and MMS price had been following each other very closely showing that the public opinion of ALP winning was reflected in MMS pricing very directly and closely. I agree that the movements in the odds has no significant bearing itself, its just showing that investors have fully priced the election results in by now.
Will be eagerly waiting the report as I think this will now have the most significant impact in the near future on the SP.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/mcmillan_shakespeare_buy_pays_off_FN1Qh0w2HJnACMQ1bNpNTN
fund manager did a bit of trading on the side
bought in at $8 sold at $12
fund manager did a bit of trading on the side
bought in at $8 sold at $12
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I'm still torn as to what to do as we lead up to polling day. As aforementioned it is fair to say the increase in MMS since the changes to FBT by Labor has factored in that the Coalition will come to power and more than likely abolish Rudd's changes.
Average entry of $9.03 and now as of today closed at $11.98. I'm getting itching fingers to hit the sell button
Average entry of $9.03 and now as of today closed at $11.98. I'm getting itching fingers to hit the sell button
I cant see any real harm holding till after election date. No doubt the election result has been factored in however it may jump a few percent when the Coalition are sworn in, you never know. Unfortunately the damage has been done and it may never get back to its highs.
I cant see any real harm holding till after election date. No doubt the election result has been factored in however it may jump a few percent when the Coalition are sworn in, you never know. Unfortunately the damage has been done and it may never get back to its highs.
or you will find out what they will do this Thursday if they release enough details of what cut and saving they have coming for us all
- - - Updated - - -
Selling is always the hardest
.. I wish you well with your decisionor you will find out what they will do this Thursday if they release enough details of what cut and saving they have coming for us all
One of the reasons I got out of MMS was because I was starting to get worried how the Coalition were fund all these ideas and whether they would do anything like a FBT. Whilst they have slammed Rudd for it, politicians have a knack for back-flips. Too much risk for me
All the best to those who are still holding
tinhat
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An interesting thing to be gambling on. It's not so much about who is going to win the election but about what makes you think the coalition is going to not keep the reforms. I would be more inclined to think that they will rely on savings that have already been locked in by decisions of the current government.
Believing that a government is going to be able to increase spending and decrease taxes (and improve its fiscal balance sheet) is a bit far don't you think?
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One of the reasons I got out of MMS was because I was starting to get worried how the Coalition were fund all these ideas and whether they would do anything like a FBT. Whilst they have slammed Rudd for it, politicians have a knack for back-flips. Too much risk for me
All investing carries some risk, even bank deposits as the Cypriots discovered to their horror. Investing in MMS should be an investment based on probability (measured risk), this is distinctly different from gambling. Your reasons for exit are based on a highly improbable outcome in my view. We shall see what the market reaction to a Coalition victory means for MMS next Monday. I suspect it will be a very positive one.
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I agree. I'm still holding and will be until the Coalition win on the weekend. I'm banking on MMS putting out a statement after the election result is known reinstating the dividend and saying that things are all good.
I dont think the Coalition being sworn in will have that significant an impact on the market. The outcome is already expected.
ONLINE bookmaker sportsbet.com.au has declared next Saturday's federal election a one-horse race, and has paid out all bets on the Coalition - nine days before Australia goes to the polls.
So confident of a landslide victory is Sportsbet,it has paid out more than $1.5 million in bets to its members - with the early payout being a first in Australian federal election history.
"As far as Sportsbet's betting markets are concerned, the Abbotts can start packing up their belongings ahead of their imminent move to Kirribilli House," sportsbet.com.au's Haydn Lane said.
"The Coalition are now into Black Caviar-like odds to win the election."
We really need to hear more from MMS themselves instead of speculating the outlook for the company moving forward. They are playing it close to the chest it seems until uncertainty about the future is removed for them in their own eyes.
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+1
If no fading this week, any upmove right after the election will be heavily faded imo
