April 29 - A Day to Watch for Uranium Investors
By Chris Gilpin
28 Feb 2007 at 12:13 PM GMT-05:00
STOWE, Vt. (Casey Research Advertorial) -- For more than 20 years, Australia - with its rich uranium resources - has been largely closed for yellowcake mining. But now the country may be preparing to open its doors to junior uranium explorers and producers, which, in view of the Cigar Lake breakdown, would be a major step to ramping up production in the foreseeable future - and could provide some excellent investment opportunities.
Australia is poised for a breakout in uranium production. The land down under hosts 36% of the world’s reasonably assured uranium resources (recoverable at low cost) - more than any other country - and yet it accounts for only 23% of global output. But that picture could change drastically in the next few years.
The current opposition party in Canberra - the federal wing of the Australian Labour Party - could have the largest influence on the future of the uranium industry. Their leader, Kevin Rudd, supports a rethinking of Labour’s opposition to uranium mining. The federal Labour conference takes place on April 27-29 and will be a pivotal event for Australian uranium politics.
Why? A federal election must occur in Australia sometime in the second half of 2007. Kevin Rudd is a popular figure, and polls show that Labour has pulled ahead of John Howard’s ruling coalition for the first time in years. The last Morgan poll gives Labour 48% of the popular vote, while John Howard’s coalition sits at 38%.
Labour holds the balance of power in each and every one of Australia’s states and territories. Its regional governments’ attitudes toward yellowcake vary. New South Wales and Victoria ban all uranium-related industrial activity, even exploration. Queensland and Western Australia straddle the fence, allowing uranium exploration but not uranium mining. Tasmania has no ban in place, but has never drawn interest from uranium explorers. Only South Australia and the Northern Territory (neighbours in the middle of the continent) have allowed uranium mining.
Here’s why the April Labour conference could be a game-changer: Queensland’s premier, Peter Beattie, says that his state will fall in line with the policy that reaches consensus at April’s gathering, which could signal an immediate boon to companies working in that province.
The stakes are enormous. Because of past governmental disincentives, few of Australia’s prospective uranium regions have been explored with up-to-date technology. There’s big potential for a significant discovery in the Northern Territory, where, according to a November 2006 report by the Northern Territory Minerals Council, only 20% to 25% of the prospective rock units have been effectively explored.
Most likely this holds true for other regions of Australia as well. Today airborne electromagnetic surveys can yield useful data from ten times deeper into formations than they could in the 1970s. Many authorities, including the Uranium Information Centre and Geoscience Australia, believe that past exploration was superficial by today’s standards and that there are several resources at depth waiting to be found.
A look at history makes it even more apparent how groundbreaking Labour’s potential change of attitude could be. In 1984, the federal Labour government instituted the “three mines policy,” which was intended to eventually end all uranium mining in Australia. The law stipulated that only the three uranium mines in production at the time would be given permits to export uranium: the Olympic Dam project (the world’s largest uranium mine) in the state of South Australia, and the Ranger and Nabarlek mines in the Northern Territory. Provisional approvals for other would-be uranium mines were cancelled. Labour’s notion was that when the three producing deposits had been exhausted, uranium mining in Australia would be finished for good. Exploration cratered, and today Australia’s known resources are little changed from what they were 20 years ago.
After John Howard’s coalition government swept into power in 1996, it scrapped the three mines policy. But because state and territorial governments were all dominated by the Labour party, the industry still made little progress. In fact, the Nabarlek mine had already shut down in 1988, leaving only two mines in operation. In 2000, the Beverley mine in South Australia opened, bringing the number back up to three. And today there is the prospect that SXR Uranium One’s [TSX:SXR] Honeymoon project will become Australia’s fourth uranium mine. SXR Uranium One received its export permit from the federal government in January of this year, an essential step for uranium production in a country that hosts no nuclear facilities.
With Labour threatening to win the 2007 federal election, that party’s stance on uranium will be pivotal for Australian exploration companies and, indeed, for the global uranium market as a whole. This April’s conference will provide crucial clues as to the shape of things ahead.
Copyright © Casey Research 2007
Chris Gilpin is a senior researcher for Casey Research, publishers of the Casey Energy Speculator, one of the world’s leading monthly newsletters dedicated to uncovering junior oil, gas and uranium companies poised for significant increases in production and share appreciation.
mickqld said:I know this stock is getting hammered at the moment but just stop and read the following article from resourceinvestor.com and think of the impact on this stock after April:
kennas said:Mick, just because the stock might have something to do with uranium does not mean it will automatically go up after the no new mines policy is changed. You need to provide more detailed information in your posts as to why you think MKY specifically will go ok.
This type of information is best placed in the general uranium thread.
Yes, I agree the Labor Party policy change will certainly effect companies with tenaments in QLD, but I think this is factored into the prices now. It seems to be in the bag, although there might a % or more to be squeezed out of U players when the decision is finally made. But what's so good about MKY? That's all we're all after. Cheers.mickqld said:Considereing MKY holds tenements in QLD which is probably the most contentious area affected by Labours policy direction I thought this article would apply most directly to stocks like MKY which will critically depend on the outcome of Labours April conference.
kennas said:It seems to be in the bag, although there might a % or more to be squeezed out of U players when the decision is finally made.
I think Mick got a valid point. I expect the price of MKY will go up in the coming few months. It's under priced.
Since Rudd said he was leaving it to the States to decide and Beattie then said he wouldn't allow it, I sold my holdings and won't buy in QLD until it looks like Beattie gets the chop. Not saying some juniors won't benefit from finding a big paddock full of cryptonite there, but less likely once the policies are in concrete. Long term the policy is bound to change in QLD, but who knows what price U by then? UBS have long term average price at $40, which might not make new low grade discoveries viable....In my opinion, theres massive upside for SMM if this policy change comes through and im not talking a % im thinking more like double digits++.
You still holding your SMM?
(excuse the off-topic)
kennas said:UBS have long term average price at $40, which might not make new low grade discoveries viable....
Sorry about no explaining when leaving the comment. But here is why I think it's undervalued.Joe - care to expand a little on your remarks? Why do you see MKY as being undervalued?
Rudd has successfully abolished the policy. Now it's just a matter of time when this will happen in Queensland.MKY has its Uranium claims located in North Queensland. I assume the price weakness is related to Premier Beattie's statement yesterday that if unanium mining is at the option of the states, and Rudd has said it will be, then it will not happen in Queensland.
BONANZA uranium grades?
A bit of a director ramp there dont you think Kennas? LOL
It seems to have worked though.
Not a breakout, but certainly a break of the downtrend, interesting to see where she closes.
Well it has been a long wait for this one to show some signs of life but finally we have something to grasp onto. Very close to cutting out of this a few days ago but thought I'd hang on till end of June. Glad I did, onward and upward hopefully.
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