UGL is an interesting one as it was only 2 months ago when its property services unit was supposed to worth $1b. Today the market cap is only $1.3b.
In addition, over 40 percent of Group earnings are now generated offshore.
Expected to deliver its eleventh consecutive year of earnings growth, we anticipate Property will continue to deliver long term growth as it expands to nearly 50 percent of Group earnings in the next few years. Internationally, we are encouraged by the growth potential in both the USA and Asian markets, particularly China where we anticipate growth of nearly 20 percent in FY2013.
The property services unit (DTZ) is where all the future growth will be. The demerger will probably happen now, and will probably unlock some value. I think there's a good risk / reward play at these prices long-term. My average is about $9. Underwater for now, nothing new there, I usually begin that way!UGL is an interesting one as it was only 2 months ago when its property services unit was supposed to worth $1b. Today the market cap is only $1.3b.
Same with me...
(4th-April-2013) There is a big bottom coming for the mining services stocks, when the resource boom development spend actually starts to fall, that's when it will get interesting...i hope to restrain myself until then.
Just my two cents worth, it could be beneficial to look on that list for no debt and lots of cash on hand, I still hold FGE and while I won't be buying more at the moment selling is not on the agenda either. There should be some consolidation in this sector in the future.
I sold out all my FGE a couple of months back near its high but if it goes way back down to 4 dollars or under again I think I will load up again.
Good managed businesses with plenty of cash will always do well in the long run. In fact a period of consolidation could work very nicely in FGEs favour.
It is a shame that they didn't pay higher dividends as that would have boosted the share price. I mean I think they had 200 million cash or thereabouts. The could well have paid a large dividend and still had plenty in the coffers.
Same with me... I have been buying under $10.00, added even more today. Still think it's cheap if you value all of the segments separately and apply reasonable assumptions to each for the long-term.
I have been working on doing divisonal valuations this week - and even before I've finished I can safely assume this ones cheap. I'm glad I've been so busy as its been getting cheaper and I don't have much capital left to average down at the moment!
These companies all look pretty cheap, but is it possible to predict where they'll bottom out? ASL trading on 3.85 P/E...
I believe that management have stated a desire to acquire businesses at the right price. I think a lot of people have viewed them in the recent past as an inspiring Monodelphous.
Trailing PE... you need to throw that in the bin and focus on estimating forward PE 2-3 years out (which is really quite difficult and will no doubt be wrong).
BLY AGM on 21 May and everyone is expecting further profit downgrade... whatever BLY says will be read-through to ASL.
A serious question.
Which of these stocks do people think have a chance of going bust?
Probably need to look back a little further then 10 years to get a full cycle.
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But this list is pretty pointless as most people probably have a slightly higher investment criteria than just not going bust...
If some of the mining service companies do go bust, does this not leave more of the (reduced) pie to share?
Cheers
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