Mining Services Stocks

[Muschu]

I only have one mining services stock - although it also is an iron ore miner - and that is MIN. Excellent dividend. Struggling a bit at the moment but hanging in there and I remain 26% in front.

ASL is another I had and dumped some days ago at $2.77 and an 8% loss.

 

[odds-on]

Skc,

I decided to stock pick in the end. After crunching the numbers and looking at some statistics (average earnings, Altman Z score, Piotroski F score, etc) I decided to go with NWH on Friday last week. Purchase price was 142.5 cents with a holding timeframe of up to 6 months or a reasonable return. Time will tell.

BLY is interesting. I did some checks (again) and my expected value calculation result was 0.40 (i.e. probability of bankruptcy X payoff + probability of takeover x payoff + probability of no turnaround x payoff + probability of turnaround x payoff). I am in agreement with ROE about the upside but personally just not willing to hold the stock.

If ASL keeps dropping I will be interested…I love these mining services stocks at the moment.

Cheers

Oddson

 

[odds-on]

Skc,

I decided to stock pick in the end. After crunching the numbers and looking at some statistics (average earnings, Altman Z score, Piotroski F score, etc) I decided to go with NWH on Friday last week. Purchase price was 142.5 cents with a holding timeframe of up to 6 months or a reasonable return. Time will tell.

BLY is interesting. I did some checks (again) and my expected value calculation result was 0.40 (i.e. probability of bankruptcy X payoff + probability of takeover x payoff + probability of no turnaround x payoff + probability of turnaround x payoff). I am in agreement with ROE about the upside but personally just not willing to hold the stock.

If ASL keeps dropping I will be interested…I love these mining services stocks at the moment.

Cheers

Oddson

The sudden drop in BLY price today was just too tempting and I changed my mind! I have decided to spend a few nights onboard the sail boat "Boart Longyear", suspect I am going to be in for a few rough nights. In at $0.96 and not going to stay long.

ASL has gone into a trading halt. Earnings guidance to be released to the market.

Cheers

 

[skc]

The sudden drop in BLY price today was just too tempting and I changed my mind! I have decided to spend a few nights onboard the sail boat "Boart Longyear", suspect I am going to be in for a few rough nights. In at $0.96 and not going to stay long.

ASL has gone into a trading halt. Earnings guidance to be released to the market.

Cheers

Not a sudden drop. It was a readthru from the ASL announcement.

BLY did provide an earning update last year and the stock actually rallied after opening lower, as the update wasn't as bad as the market had expected.

ASL has fallen heavily leading up to this halt, so watch the action carefully. It may behave like BLY or it may behave like CGH.

 

[odds-on]

Not a sudden drop. It was a readthru from the ASL announcement.

BLY did provide an earning update last year and the stock actually rallied after opening lower, as the update wasn't as bad as the market had expected.

ASL has fallen heavily leading up to this halt, so watch the action carefully. It may behave like BLY or it may behave like CGH.

Shows my ignorance about how the market actually works . I just look for ideas by scanning for statistically cheap industrial stocks and nearly all of the results are mining services stocks (no surprise!). Expectations are being adjusted in the sector which provides short-term opportunities.

 

[tinhat]

I hold some FGE and BYL. Currently I am keeping my eye on MND. If it gets down to $20 it will be very tempting = good dividend yield.

 

[tinhat]

oh - I have some MIN too. Would add to it at the right price.

 

[odds-on]

Not a sudden drop. It was a readthru from the ASL announcement.

BLY did provide an earning update last year and the stock actually rallied after opening lower, as the update wasn't as bad as the market had expected.

ASL has fallen heavily leading up to this halt, so watch the action carefully. It may behave like BLY or it may behave like CGH.

Interesting day today. ASL released a downgrade in earnings guidance, I am going to have to revisit my calculations on this one.

Have all the mining services stocks issued downgrades in earnings guidance?

Off to play street craps with the locals.

Cheers

 

[odds-on]

Decided to switch horses; BLY out ASL in. The steep price drop in ASL made it too good an opportunity not to take. Before Xmas i bought in at $2.33 and took profits at ~$2.90, this time I am in at $1.55...time will tell but it meets all my statistical criteria.

Cheers

 

[skc]

UGL and SDM profit warning today. There was no place to hide...

UGL -17%
EHL -10.1%
TSE -8.5%
ALQ -7.96%
MND -7.44%
FGE -7.7%
BLY -6.78%
ASL -6.75%
DOW -6.05% (even though they reaffirmed guidance just last week)
SVW -5.8%
NWH -5.36%
DCG -5.72%
CDD -4.88%
LEI -4%

 

[odds-on]

UGL and SDM profit warning today. There was no place to hide...

UGL -17%
EHL -10.1%
TSE -8.5%
ALQ -7.96%
MND -7.44%
FGE -7.7%
BLY -6.78%
ASL -6.75%
DOW -6.05% (even though they reaffirmed guidance just last week)
SVW -5.8%
NWH -5.36%
DCG -5.72%
CDD -4.88%
LEI -4%

And to think earlier this week I nearly took some profits on ASL....

Thanks for the list - half of the list still do not come up on my "Cheep cheep" stock screener so they still must have a fair way to drop.

I am going to focus on ASL, BLY and NWH.

Are you not tempted yet?

Cheers

 

[craft]

UGL and SDM profit warning today. There was no place to hide...

UGL -17%
EHL -10.1%
TSE -8.5%
ALQ -7.96%
MND -7.44%
FGE -7.7%
BLY -6.78%
ASL -6.75%
DOW -6.05% (even though they reaffirmed guidance just last week)
SVW -5.8%
NWH -5.36%
DCG -5.72%
CDD -4.88%
LEI -4%

I did my bit in trying to support UGL. Didn't work though.

 

[Ves]

I did my bit in trying to support UGL. Didn't work though.

Same with me... I have been buying under $10.00, added even more today. Still think it's cheap if you value all of the segments separately and apply reasonable assumptions to each for the long-term.

 

[robusta]

Just my two cents worth, it could be beneficial to look on that list for no debt and lots of cash on hand, I still hold FGE and while I won't be buying more at the moment selling is not on the agenda either. There should be some consolidation in this sector in the future.

 

[odds-on]

Just my two cents worth, it could be beneficial to look on that list for no debt and lots of cash on hand, I still hold FGE and while I won't be buying more at the moment selling is not on the agenda either. There should be some consolidation in this sector in the future.

Good points...there are just too many companies for me to follow! Trying to keep it simple and keeping to the facts...cheep cheep, Altman Z Score, and company announcements. Everything else is noise.

 

[chops_a_must]

You people are doing what?

 

[odds-on]

You people are doing what?

Playing street craps

 

[Bort]

Look at one of the many industries that is going up. This area has been going where money does to die while the market is at highs....

 

[skc]

Actually, BKN, WOR and RCR didn't fall much today...

Are you not tempted yet?

Tempted to buy or to short?

There will be the time to buy, but I doubt it is now. I don't mind buying AFTER the sector looks like it will turn back up. I will need to see big news like Chinese stimulus, commodities trending back up or big miners re-starting cap ex plans.

Having said that, market has a habit of buying up shares before the sector actually turns (look at building materials like BLD/CSR for example). We just don't know where the bottom is just yet.

Same with me... I have been buying under $10.00, added even more today. Still think it's cheap if you value all of the segments separately and apply reasonable assumptions to each for the long-term.

UGL is an interesting one as it was only 2 months ago when its property services unit was supposed to worth $1b. Today the market cap is only $1.3b.

 

[Bort]

Ctd. Gem. Rea. Why bother with rocks that didn't go down too much today?