MHL - Monitor Energy

[wipz]

Born2win i bet you, I got in a few months back at its highest peak of 4.6c !! Been stinking it up since then, but going to keep this little gem in the back pocket and see what happens a year or 2 down the track. least the 50% CGT will come into play !!

50% captial gains tax discount is useless when your in a loss position Lucky you got into AGO when it was cheap

 

[stinger_au]

Don't worry stringer =), i got in at .038, at it's peak. Still filled with confident, aswell as picked up some more at .032 =)

I feel your pain, you must be down even more than me, I rushed to get in because i thought it was going to sky rocket but it looked like it did a back flip first. Its down to .031 again . The thing that hurt most was watching a company that you sold out go up 22% right after you sold.

 

[Synergy]

Looking very thin on the buy side today. There is a nice decending triangle on the chart however if it can hold .03 today.

 

[yuyry002]

3cents at the moment. i have been looking at seller side for a while today and still not sure that now is the best time to top up.

 

[Synergy]

No... I got in at 3c today but there was nice depth at .29 below me. That seems to have been pulled

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys,

A quick update based on recent MRO UKL merger

While the SP decline is annoying, the company's current mkt cap is only $19m with $2m cash, so the company has an EV of $17m for its Uranium and Oil projects.

Now for the Uranium projects, I have a value of $15m EV, based on the following-
Recently MRO and UKL announced a merger, MRO is another Kyrgyz based U company that is very similar to MHL.

It had $10m of cash and very similar U projects to that of MHL,
At the merger price, MRO was valued at $40m
Take out the $10m cash and you get an $30m EV,

If we gave MHL 50% because it has only 50% interest in its projects thats $15m EV, now I know its hard to compare apples and oranges, but both MRO and MHL's uranium projects in Kyrgyz are similar in terms of potential size etc etc


So Current Mkt Cap = $19m
Cash = $2m
Uranium Project EV = $15m (based on MRO Uranium merger)
Resulting Oil EV = $2m

I think based on the above figures, all of the information I have posted re managmenet, Ascent Capital, the links to HDR and DYL and the company being in the final stages of farming out its Kyrgyz Oil projects, the company is cheap and has always been so at these levels.

Time will tell

MHL​

Mkt Structure

Shares
635m


Mkt Cap @3c = $19m Current
Mkt Cap @4c = $25m
Mkt Cap @5c = $32m Target 1 if CIG hit Oil on adjacent lease
Mkt Cap @6c = $38m
Mkt Cap @7c = $45m Target 2 if a major like Santos or Chineses National Oil farm in



Cash $2m

Ascent Capital
To begin with MHL is an Ascent Capital re-cap, however I always viewed it as the one that never made it,

When you consider their other re-caps, EXT 2c -15c, DYL 2c-65c, BLR 2c-25c, WMT 2c-30c, even MKY 2c-9c, thus MHL's 2c- 4c seems an anomoly, I would think its the last decent Ascent Capital re cap left to run.

So given their track record and the fact that you see the Steinpris name (Ascent Capital) still on the share registry suggests that more is still to come, in addition to this Ascent Capital control 50% of the Uranium projects and so this all makes for a very interesting mix.

Management
Oil and Gas The 2 main men are Scott Spencer and Ted Ellyard, both are the ex creators/architects of Hardman Resources, they took HDR from "a market cap of less than $5m in 1994 to eventually over $1.5 BILLION"

Thus these two oil boys know what they're doing and as such MHL has been viewed by some such as Peter Strachan of Sotck Analysis as Ted Ellyards next oil and gas venture.

Uranium
The Uranium project is being managed by Leopard

Leopard is an unlisted private company thats owned and controlled by Ascent Capital, its technical guys are James Pratt who is the Managing Director of Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL) and Dr Joe Drake-Brockman who is in charge of technical explorationa and development for DYL.

So effictively Leopard is a mini DYL, created by the creators of DYL and managed and run by the current DYL top boys who have taken DYL from $5m to over $500m.




Projects

Kyrgyz Oil Oil and Gas, 100%, Kyrgyzstan
Surrounded by many prolific oil and gas producing basins which have produced probably a few BILLION BARRELS OF OIL and a few Trillion Feet of Gas, reserves are still a few Billion Barrels of Oil and a couple of Trillion feet of Gas.

The obvious comparison is as Warrick Grigor has done, to that of Caspian Oil and Gas (CIG),
"Three years ago we spent a week in the Kyrgyz Republic, coming to grips with a junior oil stock named Afminex (it subsequently changed its name to
Caspian Oil and Gas). Back then, the shares were less than 1.8¢, the company had precious little cash, the market capitalisation was $8m and the oil price was only US$30-35/bbl.

Since then it has raised more than $20m, it has signed a joint venture with Santos and, independent of that JV, it is preparing to drill a number of shallow targets. CIG’s market capitalisation is approximately $170m
with the share price at 16.5¢. Our clients have done very well out of CIG, irrespective of whether or not they hit big oil in the forthcoming program."

So CIG's Mkt Cap has gone from $8m to $170m yielding a return of 2125% over 3 yrs, however over the last 5 months the stock has yielded over 300% (5.5c - 16.5c)

Given CIG's current Mkt Cap of $170m I would expect MHL to move up to 5c =$32m if CIG hit oil, moreover if MHL, which is in the final stages of negotiating a farm out, gets someone like Santos, or even the Chinese National Oil Corp I would expect a re-rating towards 7c = $45m.

There is not too much info on target size or potential of MHL's Oil and Gas licences however the company is in the final stages of interpreting and reprocessing data to determine drill targets, priority survey area's etc etc in addition to this further survey results are due back,

So to summarise there are 3 potential catalysts fora re-rating of MHL because of its oil and gas leases

1. CIG striking oil
2. A farm in partner such as Santos or Chinese National Oil Corp
3. Siesmic/survey updates with target/potential size of oil targets



Kyrgyz Uranium Uranium, 50%, Kyrgyzstan,

Intial target 600k-700kt's@0.1% U = 1.5Mlb's U

This is just an intial target, base don historic work/drilling by the soviets, mineralisation is reported at surface and up to depths of 150m's over a strike of 800m's, they "mineralised seam widths" vary form 4.2m's to 6.6m's and avg 0.03% - 0.4% U

Its early days here but given the current mkt cap of other companies operating in Kyrgyz such as MRO mkt cap $50m and NMR mkt cap $100m there is plenty of upside value for MHL once a JORC is released I would expect $20m of attributable value = 3c

As stated the Uranium project is being managed by Leopard

Leopard is an unlisted private company thats owned and controlled by Ascent Capital, its technical guys are James Pratt who is the Managing Director of Deep Yellow Ltd (DYL) and Dr Joe Drake-Brockman who is in charge of technical explorationa and development for DYL.

So effictively Leopard is a mini DYL, created by the creators of DYL and managed and run by the current DYL top boys who have taken DYL from $5m to over $500m.




Summary

- Chart wise support seems to be 3.2c and then 2.6c, however I doubt we will see it fall below 3c

- Its is a direct comparison to CIG, even Grigor is getting his clients who he got on to CIG very early days on to this, moreover any drilling success for CIG will boost MHL's prospectivity and thus SP

- A farm in deal for MHL's oil and gas licences is in the final stages, if its Santos or Chinese Oil watch out!

- The Oil managment is excellent being ex HDR architects who took the company from $5m to over $1.5Billion

- The Uranium management via Leopard is also excellent as its all the DYL boys who took DYL from $5m to $500m

- So given it is being run by the people he created so much value for HDR and DYL, as well as the fact that it can be compared to CIG for oil and MRO/NMR for the Uranium MHL seems cheap!

 

[mobcat]

Good stuff YT :dance:

MHL is showing value ATM hey i thought it was cheap when i bought millions at 3.6 i had a buy in at 3 and i was very happy to see it filled while i have been away for a couple of days cant see it trading under 3 but you never know now days hey .........i no one thing though if it do,s i will buying more of them ....MHL has so many upsides over the next 12 months and iam in this one for the long term anything is possible with this one when you look at it,s peers as YT has pointed out .........i would say we will sit back and laugh in Oct 2008 that MHL was at 3 cents big picture stuff MHL and MHL management are big picture people having done it befor its much easier to do it again even in the land of mankini and CIG,s recent hydro show is very positive IMO but oilers in their nature are a fickle play but can go off like a hooker at a dildo show given the right wind and Ann next step 1/4ly could be some real news between the lines I'm thinking cant wait :headshake

 

[gordon2007]

Bloody hell I seriously haven't a clue as to what you just said. I'm presuming though that you're a happy holder of mhl.

Good stuff YT :dance:

MHL is showing value ATM hey i thought it was cheap when i bought millions at 3.6 i had a buy in at 3 and i was very happy to see it filled while i have been away for a couple of days cant see it trading under 3 but you never know now days hey .........i no one thing though if it do,s i will buying more of them ....MHL has so many upsides over the next 12 months and iam in this one for the long term anything is possible with this one when you look at it,s peers as YT has pointed out .........i would say we will sit back and laugh in Oct 2008 that MHL was at 3 cents big picture stuff MHL and MHL management are big picture people having done it befor its much easier to do it again even in the land of mankini and CIG,s recent hydro show is very positive IMO but oilers in their nature are a fickle play but can go off like a hooker at a dildo show given the right wind and Ann next step 1/4ly could be some real news between the lines I'm thinking cant wait :headshake

 

[roland]

Bloody hell I seriously haven't a clue as to what you just said. I'm presuming though that you're a happy holder of mhl.

Oh well, posts like that provide better entertainment than Home and Away on Channel 7. I had a giggle - sort of like getting into a Taxi driven by an Indian with a huge interest in the Cricket Test Series when you have no knowlegde of cricket.

 

[mayk]

I do not want to put a cold shadow on MHL, but I have few queries. Most of my money is stuck in SDL . I will try to hop out of SDL and enter MHL at a feasable time.

I am curious as this is winter season in Kazakistan and will slow down the drilling? And if that is a possibility then I will wait till the price can go closer to .25 near christmas ( given no news comes out). I was hoping to buy the share at .31 but now I have to buy a car

Anyway I will be joiing the MHL bandwagon soon.

Thanks all for your research and input.

 

[mobcat]

Bloody hell I seriously haven't a clue as to what you just said. I'm presuming though that you're a happy holder of mhl.

Classic Gordon either do i just had a couple at a birthday party cant belive i didnt proof read it ,it makes no sense at all oh well GO GO MHL lol

 

[jtb]

Classic Gordon either do i

Yeah well I'm still confused you blokes and I'm reading this with one eye shut

More beer..........

 

[stinger_au]

MHL does look good for long term - I just thought it was going to make it's run sooner hence why I jumped on so fast. Has any one else sold out of company just before it went up 30%? lol Is that considered just bad luck/timing?

 

[gordon2007]

Don't feel bad Stinger. I sold out of RAU way too soon. Whilst I still made a handsome profit, had I not sold I would of made nearly 300K's.

MHL does look good for long term - I just thought it was going to make it's run sooner hence why I jumped on so fast. Has any one else sold out of company just before it went up 30%? lol Is that considered just bad luck/timing?

 

[mobcat]

ooooooh bit seedy today OH well we never learn do we......I am back in their in the Q this morning with a buy at 3 just short of a mill having had a nibble at close yesterday .........happy to add at this level

 

[kpas]

Gotta admit, the market is pretty damn boring at the moment.

I haven't seen any stocks (at least the ones I have been watching) breakout for quite some time :/

Might just have to put these in the bottom drawer and sit back and wait.

 

[stinger_au]

Don't feel bad Stinger. I sold out of RAU way too soon. Whilst I still made a handsome profit, had I not sold I would of made nearly 300K's.

Wow you must have bought 3M shares - i only got 250k from MHL - wish i had done what i see some of you guys do which is buy it in bits - but i did not want to pay all this money is broker costs - 30 bucks a pop .

 

[soltrader]

Guys,

Below is an extract from the last announcement made by the company on October 2:

Monitor Raising $0.5M for Exploration Funding in Private Placement

"Monitor Energy Ltd (ASX:"MHL"), is pleased to advise that Far East Capital Limited ("FEC") has agreed to manage a placement to raise $500,000 via the issue of 25 million shares at 2c each. ...."

The announcement does not say when this is going to happen.
Was just wondering if this will not result in a dilution of the share price when it happens (which probably means it wouldn't be a good idea to buy at the current price level)?

 

[jtb]

Guys,

Below is an extract from the last announcement made by the company on October 2:

Monitor Raising $0.5M for Exploration Funding in Private Placement

"Monitor Energy Ltd (ASX:"MHL"), is pleased to advise that Far East Capital Limited ("FEC") has agreed to manage a placement to raise $500,000 via the issue of 25 million shares at 2c each. ...."

The announcement does not say when this is going to happen.
Was just wondering if this will not result in a dilution of the share price when it happens (which probably means it wouldn't be a good idea to buy at the current price level)?

Hey bro' best you read this thread from the first page, before YT reads that:

Made me laugh anyway

 

[adobee]

MHL starting to get some strong interest this morning ... looks as thought buyers are starting to line up.. Perhaps something in the wind ?