MHL - Monitor Energy

coladuna said:

Down 12% on high volume.
Is that the end of an outstanding run until the announcement?
quite surprised it came tumbling down this much.

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Profit-taking and it's hard to support those sort of prices on the back of a sudden run to get there.

I was contemplating getting out at 6c, but I'll hang around.

This is a 3 min chart of MHL.
Clearly the signal to sell was evident.
Note that every following upthrust had no volume support.
Note every following down thrust had volume support.

It aint that hard!

And how are you supposed to see this without a live charting program tech?

I guess it just depends on each persons time frame.

Pointing at me is fine.. I have no idea and am only new to the game and at the moment trade on guts, instinct and luck ! but once I turn my $20k to 100k I will be writing a book .. how to turn 20k to 100k !!

I know how you feel adobee. I do do a bit more research than that but yes a lot of it is guts and instinct. Even a bit of following the masses. It's worked for me so far but sooner or later I think trading on guts & glory is a recipe for failure. It's for that reason and a few others I'm reading books and taking courses.

adobee said:

Pointing at me is fine.. I have no idea and am only new to the game and at the moment trade on guts, instinct and luck ! but once I turn my $20k to 100k I will be writing a book .. how to turn 20k to 100k !!

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Where from here guys ..Is it a pull back for profit takers or an overpriced stock? Some info please

tech/a said:

This is a 3 min chart of MHL.
Clearly the signal to sell was evident.
Note that every following upthrust had no volume support.
Note every following down thrust had volume support.
It aint that hard!

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TechA - I'm interested in how you played this one and the possible different motivations behind your trade versus that of some (many?) of us here.

Obviously you played this one very well.
Can I ask - when did you buy in? & Would I be right in assuming that you went into MHL planning to get in and out within a short time-frame - say within a week - to make a quick profit and get out - 'onto the next trade' as you say?
Possibly you went in with a fair chunk of capital - and made good $$ in a short time...?
Whereas for myself (and possible a few others here) - Not having much cash lying around - my motivation with MHL was to go in with a few thou only (all my spare cash!); and let it run run run - looking for multiples while taking a few profits along the way as insurance.

I see myself primarily as a med-long term investor (albeit a small one) - though not adverse to a quick profit if it presents itself. Are you a trader or investor - or somewhere in between?

Sorry for all the questions - just curious about different styles.

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If I had to have a stab at tomorrow - I'd say slightly up on todays close... but I could be waaayy wrong!?
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OK as there is a bit of interest I'll work through this one.

Prawn.
Your right you need at least a chart package which will show Price and volume in multiple time frames.You don't "Need" Tradeguider but if you ever have the capital---go get it!

Adobee/Gordon
Love your optimism.Maybe I can help you at least preserve the 20K and get you looking for and staying in those that WILL have you writing your book!
Gordon nothing wrong with your approach ---but---you have to be able to read what the Masses are actually doing NOT what you wish/expect/hope or pray they will do.
Trading hope and opinion--often bad opinion is not a method of analysis.

Bridoin
Of course its profit takers.It certainly isn't new buyers. Why---they are chasing buyers at lower prices.

Dukey
It wasn't for me a great trade not even mediocre to be honest.A few years ago Id have lost a few $$s on this type of trade. Today I returned a small profit. Firstly I'll run through the trade and then attempt to give those interested some hints on what to look for,that will hopefully be a great help in future trades where you can use the Crowd rather than be a part of it!

I like to trade momentum.
This came up on a breakout search on 13/11. I was in 2 minds (Hint 1 markets hate wide range and Massive volume) and if you look back to 10 days ago that was certainly proven.
Buying at open (it was a fairly large parcel) at .055c I watched as it struggled all day to hold above open.Volume was massive and it didn't close on the high,clearly this was weak.
This is the chart I saw that night (Without today obviously) and the alert



(Hint 2 courtesy of Motorway---Alerts and price action are only valid for the next bar or at most few bars--regardless of time frame).
I posted above what could happen.

At open I used the 3 min chart---you can see how the range and volume was struggling to hold the stock at these levels--I sold at .06c not long after open. If Id have held the loss would have been significant and avoidable!!

Here is the chart tonight and the alert (oops wrong chart Ive now changed it!)



So to tomorrow what can we read into the chart.
Well todays alert is valid for today and tomorrows price action will validate it.
(1) Price coming off at steady volume--Weakness--no demand
(2) Price rising on reasonable volume---Strength---no or little supply
(3) Price doing little on little volume ---weakness.----No demand Sellers waiting for a sign of buyers
(4) Price doing little on strong volume---strength.--buyers absorbing sellers.

So some hints for those with EOD charts and looking for opportunity.
(1) Don't try and do what I did I WAS too late and without tick charts would have been snafood.

If you see well above volume and wide range on UP BARS start looking for weakness sellers are taking up mug buyers don't be fodder for the smart money.
If you see well above average volume and wide range on DOWN bars look for strength returning---buyers are absorbing sellers.

Its UNLIKELY that weakness OR strength will appear the very next day---could but unlikely start looking for low volume up bars that signal weakness/lack of buyers and low volume down bars which signal strength---a capitulation of sellers.

With both hints above you can determine buy and sell points in time with practice.
Lastly when I opened Tradeguider tonight this hint was on the screen.I thought it apt for tonights discussion.



All the very best of success with your trading everyone.
Hope this helps a few.

Oh if your really interested in this stuff we are lucky enough to have Motorway on this site read his stuff carefully.

tech/a said:

I have a few of these.

But you must have some suspicion when so many people are willing to sell into these buyers.
Price finished off its highs.
Tomorrow will be a test of current levels.
A lower day on volume with a tight range will signal strength.(Buyers absorbing sellers)
A lower day with wide range will signal weakness particularly on volume (Lack of buyers)
A struggling higher day on High volume will signal weakness.( Potential for supply to swamp demand)
A wider range up day on average volume will signal strength.(Buyers overcoming supply)
A lower day on low volume with moderate range will signal strength (Lack of supply).

I expect a pause.

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tech/a. is this the case with all stocks????

also, current sp is 5.0c so would the following scenarios be correct:

in the next few days
JV partner is revealed to be a top company: SP RISE HIGH
JV partner is revealed to be a above average: SLIGHT SP RISE
JV partner is revealed to be a average: No CHANGE IN SP/SLIGHT DECREASE
JV partner is not revealed: SLIGHT DECREASE IN SP

Could be.
But the market clearly isnt interested in punting on any of these at these levels,tommorow maybe different,tommorow the market maybe thinking that price is STILL to high.

How often have you seen price fall rapidly on an announcement after a strong rise before the announcement?

Smart money does the opposite to what you and I often think/hope and pray it will do---if it didnt it wouldnt be that smart would it!!

tech/a.. can I ask you for a big favour and ask you to elaborate on your post 248, it is confusing me a little bit...

also, I have seen many share go up pre announcement, and once the announcement is out, and is all good, to see the sp drop slowly.......... I am thinking this will happen with RAU........I will be honest, I purchased ARH at $2.10 14 months ago, when all the rumours were around, since then all the news has been good, however the SP fell to a low of 88c, i have averaged down, current sp about $2.05, but I was dissappointed about going on rumours and luckily I have held on to it.

and yes, that is why I am thinking the JV is already known, and the sp has already taken into consideration this JV, so unless the partner is something phenomenal, I am exepcting the sp not to move much.. am I about right>>>?

Thanks for your detailed reply Tech/a - highlights the differences in our approaches.
Just checking what I did for comparo - I actually bought with a mid-term view horizon, further back than I realised - Oct 5 @ 3.7c - based on
- current - & I expect continued - strength in energy stocks.
- location and reserves potential.
- performance of CIG & MHL hadn't run yet.
- proven management.
- percieved potential for big gains over the next few months, with partnerships and exploration underway.

Stock then dropped back and hoverered just above 3.0c until recent gains.
As I said - only a small position - a few thou - so I'm prepared to give MHL room to move and I expect I'll only bail out if she's heading back towards 4c -ish.
Almost the polar opposite strategy to yours I guess!!!
Will be interesting to see what happens next!!!
- hope I'm not crying in my milk next week!!

akumaslair said:

tech/a.. can I ask you for a big favour and ask you to elaborate on your post 248, it is confusing me a little bit...

also, I have seen many share go up pre announcement, and once the announcement is out, and is all good, to see the sp drop slowly.......... I am thinking this will happen with RAU........I will be honest, I purchased ARH at $2.10 14 months ago, when all the rumours were around, since then all the news has been good, however the SP fell to a low of 88c, i have averaged down, current sp about $2.05, but I was dissappointed about going on rumours and luckily I have held on to it.

and yes, that is why I am thinking the JV is already known, and the sp has already taken into consideration this JV, so unless the partner is something phenomenal, I am exepcting the sp not to move much.. am I about right>>>?

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Post 248 is pretty elaborate.
We all have different timeframes and analysis methods.
The price action will tell you wether your analysis is right or wrong.
The rest is simply opinion---yours or mine or anyone elses.

Tech/a - just notice the time of your last post !! - don't you need sleep???

Interesting today:
- started slow - now up a few ticks on smallish volume so far - though probably above long term volume averages.
So far seems to fit no 2. of Tech/a's post above...

"(2) Price rising on reasonable volume---Strength---no or little supply"

- but i guess its too early to judge really and the finish of the day/week is all important ... yes??

Bit of an intraday look inside todays EOD bar.

This is a 15 min chart of MHL.
As we can see there is still supply.
Everytime there is good volume pushing price up its sold into heavily at .057c.
This is capping any forward movement.
Until supply is absorbed this wont move forward.
Volume is very low over the day.

I only hold 100,000 shares at the moment, I know a very low holding compared to most! but plan on topping up this week. interesting information being posted on hotcopper for anyone wanting some further research on this little gem. Speculative investment but gut feeling I know its a terrible thing to go on!! but once this breaks the .057's it should hopefully increase nicely. I'm new to the game but hey I've got a nice portfolio of FML, BMY, SRR, TLM and now MHL. I would love very much for this week or next week MHL to be in the spotlight..

mobcat said:

Karmatik from a reliable source and also a holder i trust but we have all been wrong before haven't we...... only MHL Management know for sure and they have turned into Fort Knox of late tried ringing them again today to no avail sort a tells ya something i think because usually Jon at MHL is very obliging

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mobcat - any further news or insight from your reliable source??

Im still holding this stock and trying to formulate a game plan for the coming few days. As someone on here stated last week, maybe the news of a JV has already been worked into the SP. Does anybody have further thoughts on this?

clueless said:

I only hold 100,000 shares at the moment, I know a very low holding compared to most! but plan on topping up this week. interesting information being posted on hotcopper for anyone wanting some further research on this little gem...

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Clueless i dont think any of the information on HC can be considered worthy of being described as 'research'.

I think a nice bounce off .048 would be a postive thing, hopefully on above average volume...i might just get me some then too!

Cheers,

tech/a said:

Bit of an intraday look inside todays EOD bar.

This is a 15 min chart of MHL.
As we can see there is still supply.
Everytime there is good volume pushing price up its sold into heavily at .057c.
This is capping any forward movement.
Until supply is absorbed this wont move forward.
Volume is very low over the day.

Click to expand...

If all that volume was supply in the big red bar, then why is it that MHL has gone up the last 2 days on not much volume? Where did the supply from 5.2c - 5.8c go?