MGW - McGuigan Simeon Wines

kennas said:

I'm not sure if one isolated incident in Poland is an indication of the companies overall management, business model, and future prospects. Nice story though. Perhaps if we get a hundred or so of these we can slap a sell on it? Cheers, kennas

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I dont know about an insolated incident "where there is smoke there is fire" if someone wants to do business with you and you cant be bothered following up on it then you have a problem. There is the old saying in sales "fix your follow up fix your business"

I love first hand intelligence.....but ironically MGW is not struggling for sales, especially in Europe.....although they are far more keen on UK than other areas....maybe they just can't be arsed with Poland....not knocking that region, I'm a big fan of their alternative social and tax policy

badmarty said:

I dont know about an insolated incident "where there is smoke there is fire" if someone wants to do business with you and you cant be bothered following up on it then you have a problem. There is the old saying in sales "fix your follow up fix your business"

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There may be a reasonable explanation for this but eitherway it doesn't sound like they have a proactive sales culture if that anecdote is as it sounds.

Does anyone have any recent reports by Fat Prophets or Macquarie on MGW of late? CommSec has noted that it's trading below NTA, as many have, and expects it to underperform for at least a year.

There is no way a medium to long term TA trader such as myself would buy this purely on price until there is a strong breakout from the weekly downtrend and a convincing retest of support- just my way of looking at it.

I have been watching this stock since last year and have been practising my very poor shorting skills via a a loose form of paper trading, not much good for profits but educational. Sharp rallies are common in even the strongest bear markets, no evidence of a trend change here, still no upward momentum imo.

Looks more and more like a bottom. Potential breakout from long term downward trend perhaps. Still, has disappointed again and again, so I'd be wary.

Perhaps Poland has it wrong.

Hi folks,

MGW ..... we will be alert for some negative news, soon and
other MGW time cycles in January/February 2008, may be:

04-07012008 ... negative news expected here

16012008 ... 2 cycles ... negative spotlight on MGW

21012008 ... minor cycle ... finances???

13-15022008 ... 2 significant and negative cycles ... finances???

18022008 ... minor and positive

More later .....

happy days

paul



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Personally I wouldnt touch it with a barge pole, but Kennas may be on the money, unless ASF members got into the turps and bought up yesterday.

Ouch its dropping as I post.

gg