MGW - McGuigan Simeon Wines
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Sean K
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Like all wine stocks they are bleeding badly but as a result the sector becomes contrarian. I've been looking for a while but not touching, but if you compare all of the listed companies in this sector, MGW tend to not look as bad as others - certainly nowhere the debt/equity problems of Evans and Tate.
Sean K
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kennas
I failed to check the weekly situation when I took a position a few months ago. STOPPED out very quick.
What do you think on where IAG and MBP are in terms of their weekly charts? - tend to think there is more latent potential in their situation that MGW
I failed to check the weekly situation when I took a position a few months ago. STOPPED out very quick.
What do you think on where IAG and MBP are in terms of their weekly charts? - tend to think there is more latent potential in their situation that MGW
Sean K
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Dutchy3 said:
Dutchy, after a quick look IAG could go ANYWHERE, while MBP seems to have a floor at $0.38 but no indication of really rising to me. Chart wise, all different IMO.
Sean K
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Perhaps a bottom was found. I didn't get on, but one to watch for the turn around artists I reckon.
From The Age this am:
Investors who have watched their scrip in McGuigan Simeon Wines plunge from $6.30 to as low as $1.90 over the past 18 months might be put out of their misery soon.
The shares recently were fetching $1.94, but during the last couple of days they've got a real wriggle on, rising rapidly on Friday due to talk of an imminent takeover bid.
The shares opened at $2.38, hit $2.65 and closed at $2.50.
Anyone following ownership changes in the loss-incurring wine outfit would have noticed that there has been regular buying by a clutch of American fund managers.
Fidelity, with 9 per cent of the capital, the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio, with 5 per cent, and Brandes Investment Partners, with 11 per cent, are now all positioned on the register and they've all been buying recently.
Toss in a further batch of fund managers, such as Morgan Stanley, which owns 5 per cent of the capital, Schroder Asset Management with nearly 10 per cent, and Maple-Brown Abbott, which is sitting on 9.5 per cent of the register, and you have a total of 40 per cent of the shares in seven hands.
In its heyday, McGuigan was valued by the market at about $700 million, but recently had slipped as low as $227 million.
The company lost $11.5 million in the June year after a near $42 million stock write-down, and chairman David Clarke reckons the industry had not yet reached the bottom of the cycle, summing it up as: "There is just too much wine being produced around the world."
But he said that McGuigan was in reasonable shape and that cash flow was very strong.
Just what a takeover merchant would like.
From The Age this am:
Investors who have watched their scrip in McGuigan Simeon Wines plunge from $6.30 to as low as $1.90 over the past 18 months might be put out of their misery soon.
The shares recently were fetching $1.94, but during the last couple of days they've got a real wriggle on, rising rapidly on Friday due to talk of an imminent takeover bid.
The shares opened at $2.38, hit $2.65 and closed at $2.50.
Anyone following ownership changes in the loss-incurring wine outfit would have noticed that there has been regular buying by a clutch of American fund managers.
Fidelity, with 9 per cent of the capital, the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio, with 5 per cent, and Brandes Investment Partners, with 11 per cent, are now all positioned on the register and they've all been buying recently.
Toss in a further batch of fund managers, such as Morgan Stanley, which owns 5 per cent of the capital, Schroder Asset Management with nearly 10 per cent, and Maple-Brown Abbott, which is sitting on 9.5 per cent of the register, and you have a total of 40 per cent of the shares in seven hands.
In its heyday, McGuigan was valued by the market at about $700 million, but recently had slipped as low as $227 million.
The company lost $11.5 million in the June year after a near $42 million stock write-down, and chairman David Clarke reckons the industry had not yet reached the bottom of the cycle, summing it up as: "There is just too much wine being produced around the world."
But he said that McGuigan was in reasonable shape and that cash flow was very strong.
Just what a takeover merchant would like.
Realist
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I still do not like it...
They'd need to make a $20M profit for it to be fairly priced. You're not getting proper dividends, and wine is still a problem industry much like telcos are. I can't see it changing overnight.
I like to avoid companies that make losses.
If they make another loss the shares will plunge. If they make a $20M profit the shares are fairly priced, and I really can not see them making more than $20M profit, so why buy them?
Besides all that I am not a fan of their wines, Fosters is the best wine company in Aus, and I like their wines, they make profits and pay good dividends...
MGW is a poor mans FGL.
They'd need to make a $20M profit for it to be fairly priced. You're not getting proper dividends, and wine is still a problem industry much like telcos are. I can't see it changing overnight.
I like to avoid companies that make losses.
If they make another loss the shares will plunge. If they make a $20M profit the shares are fairly priced, and I really can not see them making more than $20M profit, so why buy them?
Besides all that I am not a fan of their wines, Fosters is the best wine company in Aus, and I like their wines, they make profits and pay good dividends...
MGW is a poor mans FGL.
Sean K
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Realist said:I still do not like it...
They'd need to make a $20M profit for it to be fairly priced. You're not getting proper dividends, and wine is still a problem industry much like telcos are. I can't see it changing overnight.
I like to avoid companies that make losses.
If they make another loss the shares will plunge. If they make a $20M profit the shares are fairly priced, and I really can not see them making more than $20M profit, so why buy them?
Besides all that I am not a fan of their wines, Fosters is the best wine company in Aus, and I like their wines, they make profits and pay good dividends...
MGW is a poor mans FGL.
I like the takeover potential for this one Realist.
Looks like a bottom found to me. Takeover rumours may have some legs.
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Realist
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Takeover rumous are over, MGW back down to $2.51.
It will hide and do nothing until we know more about next years earnings, and if they don't make nearly $20M NPAT then they are overvalued. Which I suspect could be the case.
It will hide and do nothing until we know more about next years earnings, and if they don't make nearly $20M NPAT then they are overvalued. Which I suspect could be the case.
Sean K
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Unfortunately, I think I did pick the bottom at $2.00 and haven't taken the risk to pick the dirty bottom of this turkey of the past 12 months. Things have changed by the look.
I might be stretching it but there's a slight resemblance of an inverse H&S pattern here and it's either broken through one neck line, or just about to break through another. With the drought destroying about 20% of this years crop, prices are going to go up, while there is still the rationalisation of the industry going on.
Still time for bottom pickers perhaps with a slightly contrarian view.
I might be stretching it but there's a slight resemblance of an inverse H&S pattern here and it's either broken through one neck line, or just about to break through another. With the drought destroying about 20% of this years crop, prices are going to go up, while there is still the rationalisation of the industry going on.
Still time for bottom pickers perhaps with a slightly contrarian view.
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Sean K
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RichKid
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kennas said:This is just about to break resistance at $2.85. Surely it is primed.
Anyone else out there game?
Might be one to throw a CFD at I reckon. If the market holds up this weekend I might just have to. Although, this damn rain might be good for the grape harvest.
Just a view since I've been watching this stock from time to time as well: clearly there is lots of supply at 2.85 (on high volume) or this would have broken out sooner, but we also know there is support around 2.65 and below due to the rising prices. This upleg looks a bit odd, purely subjective view on my part, maybe just a counter trend or could be the start of an explosive move, who knows? Will be watching closely if we get a breakout, supply may have been soaked up so we could see some wide ranging bars.
Sean K
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Sean K
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hey guys can someone give me a brief description on how these graphs work?
I sorta get the candle graph, it shows high, low open and close doesn't it so you can tell if a share is trending up or down.
Black means trend down and white means up.
With the graph that looks like a sin wave does that represent price trends?
I sorta get the candle graph, it shows high, low open and close doesn't it so you can tell if a share is trending up or down.
Black means trend down and white means up.
With the graph that looks like a sin wave does that represent price trends?
Sean K
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Best you go to Charts School Kiwi.KIWIKARLOS said:
Have a brouse through this site. Will explain everything:
http://stockcharts.com/education/
Cheers.
Sean K
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Closed at $2.91 off day high $2.97 flirting with $3.00. Holding above $2.85 was very important here. Hopefully another up day tomorrow confirming breakout. I got in at average $2.93, initial stop around $2.65. The AGM could be a make or break short term. Hopefully they paint a light at the end of the grape glut tunnel for this sick wino.
