Medium Term Contrarian Investment Strategy - Thinking aloud

[Julia]

Heavens, herzy, what a civil and courteous response. Thank you.
I thought of continuing to say in my earlier post that if you were to be buying dips and selling peaks within the last few months it could be quite profitable, but I decided not to on the basis that you're pretty clearly a long term investor and wouldn't be interested in such a suggestion.

I know nothing about the stock and was only looking at any on that list in terms of what the price was doing.

Hope it works out well for you.

 

[ROE]

consistency matters work out a method and stick to it, dont be afraid if you made a few bad moves
stick to your conviction and methods.

good luck and hope you do well...you got time and compounding on your side

 

[xxjohnboy]

So far, 16/30 shares are beating the all ords, but overall I am down against the all ords.

Me = 0.78%
AOD = 1.51%

Of course, ridiculously early days. I got hammered by APZ, which I wouldn't have been able to buy due to halt but will keep on there. Also a typo put KCN at the top. It would actually have been about 40 on my list so wouldnt have been bbought. But again ill keep it on there to scope it out.

Cheers

Code Gain%
KCN -6.15%
ARI 7.43%
MGX 3.28%
TFC 0.00%
APZ -18.24%
ILU 6.44%
PPC 1.54%
BKN 8.96%
EHL 4.55%
GFF 3.13%
TWR 2.69%
BLY -5.98%
HGG 5.14%
SGN -1.56%
MIN -2.13%
CMW 0.70%
SLM 5.12%
AAD 1.95%
TSE 5.71%
HIL -0.23%
LEI 1.50%
NWH -7.76%
MLB 1.68%
WHG 3.45%
FBU 4.25%
CGF -1.48%
SVW 1.28%
NAB 4.04%
PRG -4.11%
FPH -1.69%

 

[herzy]

Heavens, herzy, what a civil and courteous response. Thank you.
I thought of continuing to say in my earlier post that if you were to be buying dips and selling peaks within the last few months it could be quite profitable, but I decided not to on the basis that you're pretty clearly a long term investor and wouldn't be interested in such a suggestion.

I know nothing about the stock and was only looking at any on that list in terms of what the price was doing.

Hope it works out well for you.

This was my uneducated assumption as well - but you are right, I'm not trading. Still, the aim is to buy shares and watch them go up, so may as well try to develop a bit of an understanding of tech... Also buying dips and selling peaks can be a handy way of accumulating a stock (i.e. buying $1000, waiting for a 10% rise and then selling $1000 worth)

 

[AFTScouk]

to xxjohnboy

i do not trade stocks, i prefer forex but you might want to look out for a book called the zulu principal by james slater. It will help your stock picking i think.

John

 

[xxjohnboy]

So far so good. My portfolio is up 5.3% compared to 1.71% for AOD. Shame about my GWA shares going down though, since I actually own those.

KCN -7.52%
ARI 6.76%
MGX 7.10%
TFC 2.41%
APZ -25.88%
ILU 19.54%
PPC 10.77%
BKN 26.04%
EHL 15.58%
GFF 15.63%
TWR 2.69%
BLY -4.38%
HGG 15.25%
SGN 10.94%
MIN 1.37%
CMW 2.82%
SLM 4.19%
AAD 8.20%
TSE 14.86%
HIL 9.30%
LEI 3.97%
NWH -2.41%
MLB 0.00%
WHG 1.15%
FBU 9.59%
CGF 4.15%
SVW 5.96%
NAB 0.04%
PRG 2.28%
FPH -1.35%

 

[Julia]

So far so good. My portfolio is up 5.3% compared to 1.71% for AOD.

Over what period?
How does it compare with the index for that period?

 

[Boggo]

Over what period?

I was wondering the same thing.
Just looking at the list and you are still holding a stock that is down 25% while we have had a bull market since the beginning of June.
What are you going to do if the market turns south, are you going to become an "investor" with a big bottom drawer.

IMO you are setting yourself up for a fall if you are willing to hold onto losers.

You may have a method but don't get carried away with your ability in a bull market, even the "bargain at these prices" brigade can make money when everything is rising.

A rising tide raises all boats.

Just my

 

[So_Cynical]

I was wondering the same thing.
Just looking at the list and you are still holding a stock that is down 25% while we have had a bull market since the beginning of June.
What are you going to do if the market turns south, are you going to become an "investor" with a big bottom drawer.

IMO you are setting yourself up for a fall if you are willing to hold onto losers.

You may have a method but don't get carried away with your ability in a bull market, even the "bargain at these prices" brigade can make money when everything is rising.

A rising tide raises all boats.

Just my

A Bull market since June...seriously a bull market.

I'm inclined to call it a bit of a rally, a rally that's much the same as the one we had late last year and the one before that and so on....a bull market when we are still way below the May top and the 9 tops before that.

 

[Boggo]

A Bull market since June...seriously a bull market.

OK then, a bullish market for the period (call it what you want), a period where anyone intent on (and capable of) survival should be making a good profit rather holding on to a 25% loser.

Even basic investors should have been recouping some of their losses in this period.

 

[So_Cynical]

a period where anyone intent on (and capable of) survival should be making a good profit rather holding on to a 25% loser.

Even basic investors should have been recouping some of their losses in this period.

While we are on the subject of basic investors.

I've had a great last 2 months, completing a trade a week on average since late June....if i can just get out of 2 more trades ill be more than happy for the world to end again.

 

[xxjohnboy]

Only since 27th of July, so early days. But I would say that over 300% better than a positive all ords is a good result.

 

[Julia]

OK, thanks, yes, well done. Any time you're putting up a % result it's only meaningful if you include the relevant time period.

 

[xxjohnboy]

Result to date are below, but I will just give some extra thoughts I am having. I actually own GWA shares and they are doing a div buy back scheme at 2.5% discount. Seems pretty good. Only thing is that dividend forecast is going down, even though EPS growth is predicted. Based on forecasts, it is still a reasonable buy according to my formula, so I will most likely go ahead with the buy back. So I was wondering about whether my formula should really take in to account div growth at all (since I am basically ignoring it anyway). EPS seems to be what I care about.

As for results below, MGX would be getting sold right now if I held it, but for this folio I will see how things play out. I would sell because forecast eps goes down. BKN still looks good as a winner, PPC has a very high PE now but has pretty good forecasts to back it up.

SLM makes me think about what to do though. 2013 forecast is up, 2014 forecast is below 2013. So that would normally be an automatic sell. But the price has spiked up. Anyway, I need to do more research in to this. I really am missing a clear sell strategy.

So since 27th of July I'm up 7.3% vs AOD of 3.6%. Yippee!

KCN 13.67%
ARI 7.43%
MGX -16.39%
TFC -2.41%
APZ -21.18%
ILU 15.06%
PPC 23.08%
BKN 28.96%
EHL 14.29%
GFF 11.46%
TWR 6.92%
BLY -4.38%
HGG 15.60%
SGN 11.46%
MIN 1.37%
CMW 7.04%
SLM 18.60%
AAD 0.78%
TSE 17.14%
HIL 10.70%
LEI 2.46%
NWH 0.00%
MLB 4.47%
WHG 1.15%
FBU 13.07%
CGF 10.09%
SVW 14.18%
NAB 4.12%
PRG 0.00%
FPH 10.14%

 

[xxjohnboy]

Latest Results
Me = up 2.11%
AOD = up 5.88%

So I am getting quite beaten. Though for research I have held on to my duds such as APZ in the portfolio. But it certainly supports a clear sell strategy. The clear one to me seems to be getting rid of stocks with dropping eps forecasts.

I would be dumping BLY, MGX, APZ for sure. I haven't checked through all the stocks as I don't have time. Tehy're just the big losers.

I was going to check my stocks that are doing well but CommSec is locking up, gotta run.

KCN 24.60%
ARI -5.41%
MGX -24.59%
TFC -3.61%
APZ -61.18%
ILU 12.41%
PPC 47.69%
BKN 0.42%
EHL -14.29%
GFF 18.75%
TWR 19.23%
BLY -39.24%
HGG 27.66%
SGN 7.29%
MIN 2.00%
CMW 16.20%
SLM 20.00%
AAD 7.81%
TSE -7.43%
HIL -20.93%
LEI 4.51%
NWH -26.55%
MLB -1.12%
WHG 24.14%
FBU 20.70%
CGF -7.12%
SVW -2.41%
NAB 2.56%
PRG -5.02%
FPH 26.35%

 

[systematic]

From my skim read of the thread: you're choosing stocks that are a combination of low PE/high div yield, yeah?

 

[xxjohnboy]

From my skim read of the thread: you're choosing stocks that are a combination of low PE/high div yield, yeah?

Pretty much, and in the latest group of shares I am updating they also had EPS growth at the time I made the list.