Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio

Since the last post, I have had a lot of guidance from fellow ASF members in terms of going about longer-term investing. Few of the highly regarded members: @tech/a , @peter2 and @Skate have been generous to share some of their knowledge and experience with me over the last few days.

Basic conclusion at this stage is to stick to top quality blue chips like the latest buy in BHP and similar. Everything else (for example AIZ and FLN in this portfolio) should be considered as stocks for trading, something that I do in my other portfolio Speculative Stock Portfolio here at ASF.

But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.

I haven't mastered the illusive art (or the science) of finding those smaller companies with sufficient consistency to make it worthwhile investing in. Yes, I have had the odd luck with a multi-bagger on an undervalued stock, but that's the problem, it was based mostly on luck than the time spent looking at the company fundamentals. There are a few ASF members that I know of who has some success in this area such as @galumay and @Value Collector but it's a tough gig.

I will continue to privately learn at my own pace and if I build up sufficient consistency, I may bring little gems into this portfolio again one day...

So, for the time being it will be just blue chips and dividend paying big caps that will be bought in this portfolio going forward.

aus_trader said:

Since the last post, I have had a lot of guidance from fellow ASF members in terms of going about longer-term investing. Few of the highly regarded members: @tech/a , @peter2 and @Skate have been generous to share some of their knowledge and experience with me over the last few days.

Basic conclusion at this stage is to stick to top quality blue chips like the latest buy in BHP and similar. Everything else (for example AIZ and FLN in this portfolio) should be considered as stocks for trading, something that I do in my other portfolio Speculative Stock Portfolio here at ASF.

But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.

I haven't mastered the illusive art (or the science) of finding those smaller companies with sufficient consistency to make it worthwhile investing in. Yes, I have had the odd luck with a multi-bagger on an undervalued stock, but that's the problem, it was based mostly on luck than the time spent looking at the company fundamentals. There are a few ASF members that I know of who has some success in this area such as @galumay and @Value Collector but it's a tough gig.

I will continue to privately learn at my own pace and if I build up sufficient consistency, I may bring little gems into this portfolio again one day...

So, for the time being it will be just blue chips and dividend paying big caps that will be bought in this portfolio going forward.

Click to expand...

One way to think of it, is that rather than being a punter that is making the bets on outcomes of individual races, you are a horse owner trying to put together a stable of horses that will perform well on average over time.

When it comes to both horses and companies, you want to be able to identify the good quality ones, and then work out a sensible price to pay for them based on how you expect them to perform.

You can lose money buying good horses (and companies) if you over pay for them, and you can make windfall profits if you get good ones and bargain prices.

The advantage that companies have over horses if their useful life, it’s possible for companies to continue performing for decades, where as horses have a shorter life.

————————
In my opinion there are two valid strategies when it comes to buying companies to populate your stable/portfolio.

1, You just buy into an index of companies with a set amount of money, each month or quarter. This will produce a credible average result.

2, or you can try and pick the best horses/companies, and purchase them at times when their prices look cheap compared to your estimates of their future performance.

Option 1 is very easy, and for most people is going to be the best option, and guarantees the person a decent average return over time.

Option 2 is much harder, though it can produce extraordinary returns, if selections or timing is off, it can pressure returns and losses that are far worse than average too.

I personally use both strategies, my main investment portfolio is using option 2, but I also use option 1 to dollar cost avergae into my super.

aus_trader said:

But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.

Click to expand...

In my long term experience, if you dont need the tax benefits of selling these losers then dont, i have had quiet a few stocks come back from the dead or near death, im genuinely surprised at how often it has happened, CHN Chalice i sold out in like 2014 or so for the tax loss at 20c or so, was 9 bucks something just last year, just recently (2years ago) i sold NHC New hope for the tax loss at about 1.20 now its 5.50.

Quite often the best thing to do is nothing.

aus_trader said:

Since the last post, I have had a lot of guidance from fellow ASF members in terms of going about longer-term investing. Few of the highly regarded members: @tech/a , @peter2 and @Skate have been generous to share some of their knowledge and experience with me over the last few days.

Basic conclusion at this stage is to stick to top quality blue chips like the latest buy in BHP and similar. Everything else (for example AIZ and FLN in this portfolio) should be considered as stocks for trading, something that I do in my other portfolio Speculative Stock Portfolio here at ASF.

But what do I do with AIZ and FLN ? I will continue to hold in this portfolio, even though they are down heavily. They may recover slowly over time if my original thoughts on buying them were good enough.

I haven't mastered the illusive art (or the science) of finding those smaller companies with sufficient consistency to make it worthwhile investing in. Yes, I have had the odd luck with a multi-bagger on an undervalued stock, but that's the problem, it was based mostly on luck than the time spent looking at the company fundamentals. There are a few ASF members that I know of who has some success in this area such as @galumay and @Value Collector but it's a tough gig.

I will continue to privately learn at my own pace and if I build up sufficient consistency, I may bring little gems into this portfolio again one day...

So, for the time being it will be just blue chips and dividend paying big caps that will be bought in this portfolio going forward.

Click to expand...

I don’t generally look to invest in blue-chip shares as there are a lot of very smart very well-resourced people out there analysing these companies and I’m not about to outsmart, outthink, or outwork these people on a day-to-day basis. My blue-chip investments tend to be made only every few years and held for 7-15 years. I spend much more time on small caps which I roughly buy on a monthly basis and hold for 2-4 years. I don't really care about diversity. If I have strong feelings about a share - then I'll put a high % into that share.

I’m not a trader, I will play in and out of small caps which I think have big price fluctuations and are undervalued – they have to be companies where I’m also happy to hold long-term in case I get stuck with shares if the price drops due to what I think is an irrational market. I've stopped doing this in the last two years because I can't be f-ed to spend days on the taxes for all my trades and I'm too stuck-up to pay a professional.

I don't think there are "sufficient consistency" small guys out there - which makes it prime for good investments. Sticking with the Buffet theme, I have a pseudo cigar butt investment philosophy. I tend to keep it textbook and analyse the cashflow statements and balance sheets of small caps looking for what I think is a financially healthy company trading at a low multiple relative to peers and relative to historical trends which has run into difficulties lately (lawsuits, dropping out of an index, missing/withdrawing guidance, cancelling dividends, write-downs, big capex program) or just a small cap with good growth that has not been picked up by others. More specifically I look for operating cashflows which are high enough to cover investments and debt servicing and leave enough in the kitty to fund current or future dividends. If it’s not – then I look at the tangible assets on the books and see if I think the assets can be sold off for more $$$ then they are generating in cashflow, or in extreme examples for more $$$ than the company is worth. I then work out what I think the value/share price of the company should be. These don't come across my eye very often, 1-5 a year at best.

I give some consideration to macro trends but again, I don’t try to outsmart a billion others. Have we had a few bad years of crops? If yes, I’m more likely to buy those wheat agricultural shares as there should be a good year around the corner. Given current inflation levels I am less likely to buy those premium European washing machine shares as no one has the money to go buy fancy appliances right now. A railway company has had low capital investments the past few years, I might stay away from those shares as I know railways have the potential for heavy capital investments every so often.

My side investments are junior miners/explorers... But that’s Ouija board stuff.

As far are your Freelancer… Looked at them maybe 5 years ago. Just looked again. I can’t really see since 2017 what they’ve managed to achieve. Revenue increases look on par with inflation and operational cashflows which have really just been enough to tread water, cash has gone down and I can’t see any dividends paid. Certainly not interesting me – but never know – facebook might knock on their door and buy the domain for a billion dollars.

So_Cynical said:

In my long term experience, if you dont need the tax benefits of selling these losers then dont, i have had quiet a few stocks come back from the dead or near death, im genuinely surprised at how often it has happened, CHN Chalice i sold out in like 2014 or so for the tax loss at 20c or so, was 9 bucks something just last year, just recently (2years ago) i sold NHC New hope for the tax loss at about 1.20 now its 5.50.

Quite often the best thing to do is nothing.

Click to expand...

Thinking the same thing I rode VEC and DML all the way to death in the past few years... ....

I try not to get sentimental about what I paid for a share. Much easier now than 20 years ago. If a month or year or 10 years down the road I believe the investment is overvalued, I'll still sell even at a loss and move on.

So_Cynical said:

In my long term experience, if you dont need the tax benefits of selling these losers then dont, i have had quiet a few stocks come back from the dead or near death, im genuinely surprised at how often it has happened, CHN Chalice i sold out in like 2014 or so for the tax loss at 20c or so, was 9 bucks something just last year, just recently (2years ago) i sold NHC New hope for the tax loss at about 1.20 now its 5.50.

Quite often the best thing to do is nothing.

Click to expand...

I knew a guy who specialised in buying companies near death. He would probably lose his dough about 1/3 of the time but his wins were massive.

Great discussion guys, I think the markets are going to present us with opportunities with buying quality companies at lower prices for the long term. I will be looking for opportunities as well as to add to BHP if it drops quite a bit.

I value all the input from fellow ASF members, but I will keep small caps in the other portfolio for now. As I said, if I can improve my process of finding small caps that I am happy to hold long term, I will post in the future. All are welcome to discuss their favourite small cap growth stocks and value stocks on this thread, that's how we can all learn.

There are a few opportunities that might become attractive enough to add long term if the current sell down continues... But sometimes we feel like frogs in a pond. We only see our universe of stocks within the asx pond and unaware of the ocean that exists beyond the banks of the pond.

On the other side of the world, there are US companies that I am keen adding at current prices; as they have taken a significant hit in their share prices. I have a little exposure via ETFs but the bundling makes it difficult to pounce on the good companies with severely wounded stock prices i.e. individual constituents !

Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?

I am thinking of venturing out... the current selloff could be a rare opportunity out there.

aus_trader said:

Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?

Click to expand...

Staying with two feet on terra firma for the moment. In the share holding account, cash has been increased to about 60%, while at the same time moving funds to banks and larger cap stocks.

Its too early to go diving with confidence as yet!

KH

aus_trader said:

There are a few opportunities that might become attractive enough to add long term if the current sell down continues... But sometimes we feel like frogs in a pond. We only see our universe of stocks within the asx pond and unaware of the ocean that exists beyond the banks of the pond.

On the other side of the world, there are US companies that I am keen adding at current prices; as they have taken a significant hit in their share prices. I have a little exposure via ETFs but the bundling makes it difficult to pounce on the good companies with severely wounded stock prices i.e. individual constituents !

Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?

I am thinking of venturing out... the current selloff could be a rare opportunity out there.

Click to expand...

When considering
Have a read of what Mark Minervini has to say on the subject of trying to buy preceived value.

"This bear market is going to go down as the "bottom fisher buster." Those who fail to respect risk are learning that investing isn't as easy as just buying "good" companies that are down in price".


"Averaging down on her 11 mil. share debacle, the media felt safe betting on $SKLZ because the stock was down 75% and Cathie was still bullish based on fundamentals. How much lower can it go? Answer: 67% MORE before she sold it. All in less than 6 mos. 5-10 year time horizon?"




If the hyperlinks don't work
They are in a text file attached.

Skate.

aus_trader said:

There are a few opportunities that might become attractive enough to add long term if the current sell down continues... But sometimes we feel like frogs in a pond. We only see our universe of stocks within the asx pond and unaware of the ocean that exists beyond the banks of the pond.

On the other side of the world, there are US companies that I am keen adding at current prices; as they have taken a significant hit in their share prices. I have a little exposure via ETFs but the bundling makes it difficult to pounce on the good companies with severely wounded stock prices i.e. individual constituents !

Are there ASF members diving in the sea ? At least putting the fishing line out ?

I am thinking of venturing out... the current selloff could be a rare opportunity out there.

Click to expand...

i have no interest in investing in the US ( or adding to my UK exposure ) , but am throwing the line out to hook a few sardines ( added small parcels of EVN and HLS and bought a toehold into TWR this week )

have missed my primary targets , but long term that might be a good thing

if frogs and ponds are your thing , don't neglect PNG and NZ , the tiny ponds make ( the lack of ) liquidity an issue , but also makes them scary for big instos ( to lend out to short-sellers )

( i hold several companies that operate mostly in NZ )

I very much appreciate fellow ASF members opinions and suggestions. The thing about ETFs which are based on indices usually is they tend to be top heavy, and that's the case whether we look at them on the asx or on the NYSE or NASDAQ. So in the case of buying the SP500 or NASDAQ ETF, the top 5 to 10 companies make up the bulk of that index by weight.

Let's take the NASDAQ top 5 companies for example, which makes up around 35% of the index:



These would make up a large chunk of the index, so when they move the index would move almost in tandem.

However, if you believe one of the smaller companies in that index is going to outperform, it may be better to have direct exposure in my opinion.

Let's take a past example: During the lockdowns we could kind of figure out that Zoom Video Communications (ZM) would benefit due to the increase of online meetings people were having whether it was for business or personal reasons. In fact, if ZM was bought directly, there was a massive share price increase during 2020 lockdowns:



However, if you tried to get exposure to ZM via the index ETFs, the needle would hardly move. That's because ZM only makes up less than 0.2% of the NASDAQ:


So, I am hoping to do some stock picking as opposed to just buying the index ETFs. I know it will not be easy, as some of the smaller components of the index will be beaten down for a reason.

And also let's be honest, we can't time the exact bottom to buy in at. It may be possible to dip our toes into the water during the bear market like we are having at the moment, but as @Skate pointed out, we should be conservative in deploying our cash as the prices could go down much further.

aus_trader said:

I very much appreciate fellow ASF members opinions and suggestions. The thing about ETFs which are based on indices usually is they tend to be top heavy, and that's the case whether we look at them on the asx or on the NYSE or NASDAQ. So in the case of buying the SP500 or NASDAQ ETF, the top 5 to 10 companies make up the bulk of that index by weight.

Let's take the NASDAQ top 5 companies for example, which makes up around 35% of the index:

View attachment 148012

These would make up a large chunk of the index, so when they move the index would move almost in tandem.

However, if you believe one of the smaller companies in that index is going to outperform, it may be better to have direct exposure in my opinion.

Let's take a past example: During the lockdowns we could kind of figure out that Zoom Video Communications (ZM) would benefit due to the increase of online meetings people were having whether it was for business or personal reasons. In fact, if ZM was bought directly, there was a massive share price increase during 2020 lockdowns:

View attachment 148013

However, if you tried to get exposure to ZM via the index ETFs, the needle would hardly move. That's because ZM only makes up less than 0.2% of the NASDAQ:

View attachment 148014
So, I am hoping to do some stock picking as opposed to just buying the index ETFs. I know it will not be easy, as some of the smaller components of the index will be beaten down for a reason.

And also let's be honest, we can't time the exact bottom to buy in at. It may be possible to dip our toes into the water during the bear market like we are having at the moment, but as @Skate pointed out, we should be conservative in deploying our cash as the prices could go down much further.

Click to expand...

I have a few US companies i try to get a foot in,all with a trailing SL initially set between 6% and 10%
I went in out a couple of time in the last months and these are discretionary choice so probably not great?
Look at SJ,MOS, LMT,vnom,slvm..these are companies i can not find on the ASX with decent pe and imho some bright future.
But if the ship tanks,we all drown so the SL which are often triggered I am afraid. Until they won't..you can always buy back .even cheaper in a down trend.
The risk is death from multiple cuts so there is a risk..to be managed.
Just my inexperienced view

qldfrog said:

I have a few US companies i try to get a foot in,all with a trailing SL initially set between 6% and 10%
I went in out a couple of time in the last months and these are discretionary choice so probably not great?
Look at SJ,MOS, LMT,vnom,slvm..these are companies i can not find on the ASX with decent pe and imho some bright future.
But if the ship tanks,we all drown so the SL which are often triggered I am afraid. Until they won't..you can always buy back .even cheaper in a down trend.
The risk is death from multiple cuts so there is a risk..to be managed.
Just my inexperienced view

Click to expand...

Well, that's something I still have to think through as well mate. We are all students of the market, so I can only join you with my inexperienced views as well. in the past, I have been dealt with when I tried to outsmart the market or try to be cocky.

My initial thinking was to buy quality companies and hold for the long term in this portfolio. I know quality is a relative term and I can only put some basic fundamentals around companies as to how to identify those, and I am no Buffet when it comes to figuring out moats and all that subjective stuff.

On the asx there are few quality companies in my opinion that fits this type of long-term buy and hold criteria. Couple that comes to mind is BHP and CSL. I am happy to buy into falling prices and see the price drops as an opportunity to buy, which is completely different to trading. But the scope is limited here, we don't have the Microsofts, Apples, Johnso&Johnsons, Coca-Cola or Walt Disney to buy on dips or during market downturns like we are having now.

In terms of trading, it could be a future project to try and replicate something similar to what's done with the asx stocks in the Speculative Stock Portfolio on the US stocks.

Good afternoon qldfrog and aus_trader,
rcw1 will provide you both with rcw1's experienced views... ha ha ha ha ha ha just jokes... Pretty funnieee till something serious happens

Do gain intelligence from ADRs and Over-The-Counter performances on International Markets as they relate to stocks which are listed on the ASX that rcw1 believes can earn from day trading. Their performances and company information/revelations in those markets provide assistance to rcw1 in early morning determinations about what stock (s) on ASX to target. TA and Fundamentals compliment this process.

Guessing it wouldn't really matter whether this is applied also to determining medium- and longer-term holdings as well.

Have performed much research to gain knowledge and better ways to interpret ADR data so as to proceed with an evidence base to trade on ASX. Over time, what works and what doesn't, with what stock and when, does become a tad clearer, but there is always risk as you all would be aware. Sometimes the performance of an ADR on an international market does not in any way correspond with what happens to that same company's SP listed on the ASX, goes the other way.

Anyways fyi if you are interested rcw1 found further acquired knowledge in this space, just added 'another string to one's bow'. Just saying...

ADR universal register is here:
https://adr.com/dr/drdirectory/drUniverse

What this is all about is here (very old reference but tells the reader what the reader needs to know - no BS)
http://quantlabs.net/academy/download/free_quant_instituitional_books_/[JP Morgan] Depositary Receipts Reference Guide.pdf

More Due Diligence is here:
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch

Easy check on ADR (go into the magnify glass then type in code)

Some ADRs that interest rcw1:

AWCMY ASX listed AWC (Alumina Ltd ADR) AWC
AGLXY ASX listed AGL (AGL Energy ADR)
ANSLY ASX listed ANN (Ansell ltd ADR)
ARLUF ASX listed ALL (Aristocrat Leisure Ltd US OTC)
AMCR ASX listed AMC (Amcor US NYSE)
BEPTF ASX listed BPT (Beach Ltd US OTC)
BHP (ADR)
BBL (BHP Group PLC ADR)
BXBLY ASX listed BXB (Bramble Ltd ADR)
CAHPF ASX listed EVN (Evolution Mining US OTC)
CSLLY ASX listed (CSL ltd ADR)
FSUGY ASX listed FMG (Fortescue Metals Groups Ltd. ADR) -
ILKAY ASX listed ILU (Iluka Resources ltd ADR)
ILKAF (Iluka Resources Ltd US OTC)
JHG ASX listed JHG (Janus Henderson Group PLC US NYSE
JHX ASX listed JHX (JAMES Hardie Industries PLC ADR)
LYSCF (US OTC) ASX listed LYC
LYSDY (ADR) ASX listed LYC
NABZY ASX listed NAB (National Australia Bank limited ADR)
NESRF ASX listed NST (Northern Star Resources US OTC)
NCMGY ASX listed NCM (Newcrest Mining Ltd ADR)
NCMGF ASX listed NCM (US OTC
NHPEF ASX listed NHC (New Hope Corp Ltd US OTC)
OZMLF ASX listed OZL (OZ Minerals Ltd US OTC)
PMNXF - ASX PRU (Perseus Mining Ltd US OTC)
PLL ASX listed PLL (Piedmont Lithium Ltd ADR) ( yep, PLL is just a 3 alpha ADR Code) US Nasdaq
RGRNF ASX listed RRL (Regis Resources ltd. US OTC
RMGGF ASX listed RSG (Resolute Mining US OTC)
SFRRF ASX listed SFR (Sandfire Resources NL US OTC)
SHTLF ASX listed S32 (South32 ltd US OTC)
SOUHY (South32 Ltd ADR) S32
SSLZY ASX listed STO (Santos Ltd ADR)
STBMY ASX listed SBM (St Barbara ADR)
SVLKF ASX listed SLR (US OTC Silver Lake Resources)
WEBNF ASX listed WBC (US OTC Westpac Banking Corp)
WFAFY ASX listed WES (Westfarmers ltd ADR)
WLWHY ASX listed WOW (Woolworths Holdings Ltd ADR) WOW
WYGPY (Worley Ltd ADR) WOR
WDS ASX listed WDS (Woodside Energy Group Ltd ADR)
WOPEF ASX listed WDS (Woodside Energy Group Ltd US OTC)

Good fortune in the sandpit this week.

Kind regards
rcw1

OK Guys, the project to buy quality US based companies for the long term has finally come to fruition.

What's taken me a long time was to evaluate the various platforms available with different features and conditions. After many hours of comparing, I decided to open a separate brokerage account dedicated to US stock investing, see my recent post which explains the new platform opened:

I was offered international share trading in my long held Aussie brokerage platform, but the brokerage fees were quite high. That's why I decided to open a commission free brokerage account as I only plan to invest in small sums of money into individual quality US companies for the long term. Why small sums of money ? The companies I am targeting will be down generally which is the case at the moment due to the recent US stock market decline. However, they could fall further, so I have funds kept for other opportunities both local and US.

A couple of points to clarify before showing the first few companies that I bought into....

Quality is a relative term and what's quality for me could be complete garbage for someone else. But I try to look for profitable companies with potential for price appreciation over the long term. In terms of time horizon, I plan to hold for a decade or more, as I am not going to be monitoring day-to-day price movements that's usually done with stock trading in my Speculative Stock Portfolio. Currently extremely stretched for time to manage another trading portfolio for US stocks, so that type of project may not happen till I am able to stop or cut down working significantly i.e. retire.

First US stock purchased is Meta Platforms or good old Facebook. It's share price has absolutely tanked this year and now trading for low PE of just over 10.

The Pandemic market darling that helped everybody work and connect remotely has its share price in the gutter at the moment after peaking well over US$500 in late 2020. Decided to pick up this profitable company Zoom Video Communications because I think the trend is here to stay for the long term.

Lastly the eCommerce giant Amazon is trading close to 50% off on a yearly basis. So also added that to the Black Friday shopping basket.



Long Term US Stock Portfolio:

I was tossing up between Netflix and Disney to purchase as a media/streaming company. I think both could fit as a candidate but decided to buy a little Disney.



Other than being fascinated by the 'magical world of Disney' and all its characters ever since a kid, I have no involvement or emotional attachment to it, so that's an investment that can be left alone for the long term...


Also the company has many branches for income generation such as Disney/Hulu streaming, Disney parks and resorts etc. I understand the Parks and resorts being closed during the lockdowns and price tanking in 2020. But having overshot up with the recovery, it's back near the VFC lows:



Back years ago, I wanted to buy some Netflix shares as they were becoming the dominant streaming service around the world including Australia but didn't have a US investing account. In fact, they bankrupted a small DVD rental / streaming asx listed company called Quickflix of which I held some shares and lost the lot ! Therefore, I didn't purchase Netflix today as this portfolio is directed towards long-term investing and not revenge trading.

Wishing everyone a fantastic 2023 !

Although the big blue chips have held up well during 2022, some of the mid-caps and small-caps have had a dreadful year in terms of share price declines. Some of these companies might present a good buying opportunity at these discounted prices...

I looked at the diversified financial stock Bell Financial Group Ltd (BFG) and it has a very good valuation and fully franked dividend yield at current levels:



It has also provided fairly steady and increasing dividends over the years:



Purchased some shares for the long term:



Open ASX Portfolio:

i hold AIZ ( av. SP $1.82 ) looks like that will be underwater for a while

and BFG ( av. SP 54.5 cents ) looks to be tough conditions ahead , but you never know with this one , Ms Rinehart might be on the acquisition trail again ( and get BFG to help get the deal done )

i was buying BFG between June 2011 and March 2016

good luck

divs4ever said:

i hold AIZ ( av. SP $1.82 ) looks like that will be underwater for a while

and BFG ( av. SP 54.5 cents ) looks to be tough conditions ahead , but you never know with this one , Ms Rinehart might be on the acquisition trail again ( and get BFG to help get the deal done )

i was buying BFG between June 2011 and March 2016

good luck

Click to expand...

I bought AIZ as a copy trade trying to emulate the greatest. Basically, Buffet was buying up the US airlines (Southwest Airlines etc) as the world was opening up from all the lockdowns, so I thought AIZ was one of the best local candidates, given Virgin Airlines was taken off the exchange by then and Quantas didn't seem to present a deep discount at the time. However, Buffet had sold out of the US airline stocks soon after and I felt like the one holding the bag.

Anyway, lesson learnt. I may still look at some of the moves made by investing greats for learning purposes, but I will no longer be a copy-cat investor/trader. I will have to be courageous enough to lead with making my own investing/trading decisions, as opposed to following.

With regards to BFG, I think it's taken a bit hit to the share price of nearly 50% from around $2 highs a year ago. So, I think it represents long term value at current levels compared to the Big financials that have held up really well during the same time period.