MDX - Mindax Limited

[roland]

Well, we are pretty jumpy today, MDX summarises what is common knowledge with RRR purchases and we zoom. Just think if we had some real news .....

 

[Gspot]

Well these guys are running this morning. Can anyone tell me the sellers to buyers ratio?
Don't want to be caught out, like I was with MHL

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well in hind sight it looks like this was the case,

I now have no doubt that Red Rock have found something of great interest that most likely extends/continues into MDX's Mt Alfred tenements, why else would Red Rock spend their money buying 7.5m MDX shares?

To me this validates and somewhat inhances the prospects of MDX's target claims, ie Red Rock believes it

Now its hard to put a value on this as it is an exploration target, but considering MDX's closest comparative peer is FDL a comparison can me made between the two

FDL​

Mkt Structure

Shares
950m + 380m 10c options


Mkt Cap @1c = $9.5m Pre estimate
Mkt Cap @15c = $200m Max
Mkt Cap @10c = $135m Current


Cash $6m + $8m in listed investments


Projects

Hamersley Project Iron Ore Hematite, 100%, Pilbara W.A.

This project is next door to FMG's huge discovery and thus nearolgoy and continuation of FMG's deposit is playing an important role in validating the target size of FDL's project

They estimate 325Mt's - 390Mt's @ 56% = 180Mt's - 220Mt's Iron Ore

Given the current Mkt Cap of minimum $135m, the EV being used is 60c - 70c per target tonne of Iron ore resource

MDX​

Mkt Structure

Shares
85m + 40m 20c 30th June 08 options


Mkt Cap @12c = $10m Pre estimate
Mkt Cap @45c = $50m Target lower
Mkt Cap @70c = $70m Target upper


Cash $3.5m + $7m if options exercised



Projects

Mt Alfred Iron Ore Hematite + Magnetite, 100%, Mid West W.A.

A target of 650Mt's-750Mts @ 57%-63%Fe = 370Mt's DSO - 470Mt's DSO Hematite in Ground Value @ $100/t = $37Billion - $47Billion

Valuation method 1
Now this is an exploration target so the instead of using the usual rule of 10% of I.G.V. we should be conservative and use 1% of I.G.V.

1% In Grond Value of TARGET = $370m - $470m = $3 - $5 depending on option conversion future raising etc, now this figure is ridiculous given the current share price so lets be ultra conservative and attribute 0.2% chance of success ie a 1 in 50,000 chance of success

So attributing a 0.2% value for the In Ground Value of the target we get = $74m - $94m = 60c - 80c



Valuation method 2
Another way of possibly valuing this target is to use an EV, most Iron Ore companies trade on at least an EV of $10/t now, using the 370Mt's DSO - 470Mt's DSO Hematite target, an EV if it were JORC'd would be = $3.7Billion - $4.7Billion

Again ridicilous figures, but given the risk if we only allow a 5% chance of success for a JORC = $185m - $235m = $1.55 - $1.95


Valuation method 3
A valutaion based on FDL's mkt cap,

Per my above FDL related calculations I showed that FDL was trading on an EV of 60c - 70c per target tonne of Iron ore resource

Applying this to MDX we get = $220m - $330m = $1.85 - $2.75



Prefered Valuation method DISCOUNTED FDL comparison

Now given the superiority of FDL's target claim base on the fact that they have

1. FMG as the next door operator which provides potential offtake/infrastructure etc etc

2. FMG has already delienated a massive JORC on adjoining tenements which validates FDL's target

I would say MDX should trade at an EV = to 1/4 that of FDL's, ie discounted by 50% for each of FDL's superiorities

So 1/4 FDL's EV = $55m - $83m = 45c - 70c



Conclusions

First and foremost it must be remembered that MDX have only stated an exploration target, a target which is based on geological surveys, geological mapping and rock chip samples, for such target to be converted to a JORC compliant resource alot of drilling is required to be completed

That being said the company have been working away at Mt Alfred since November and are confident of achieving an intial DSO 90Mt- 100Mt Hematite resource by June/July,

Moreover the buying of shares by RedRock who control nearby ground suggests that they may have found something which crosses over into MDX's grounds

Finally all of the above calculations are a guide really and nothing more, when FDL announced its Iron ore target I thought wow this is going to run and bought heaps up to 3c which I sold about an hour later when it hit my intial conservative estimates of 4c-6c, it closed the day at 10c and opened the following day at 15c, so I guess my point is the mkt will put its value on a company and no one else, moreover traders will most probably rule this stock for the early parts of next week so be prepared

Either way I think MDX is surely in for some interesting times

p.s. please check my figures

I have dug up the rough research I put up on MDX after the ann regarding the Fe target was released so all ASF'ers can see

I think the stock has done incredibly well given the trying mkt conditions we're experiencing with the stock now up 250% and the options 500% in little over a week

It should be noted that the above analysis constitues my thoughts and opinions only and thus are not 100% certainties, moreover as I have continually stressed MDX has a target alot of drilling (about to commence) is required to convert the target into the JORC

Cheers and good luck to all holders

p.s. It appears we know have 2 groups buying into MDX, Red Rock and this Andrew Tsang fellow

 

[zt3000]

It should be noted that the above analysis constitues my thoughts and opinions only and thus are not 100% certainties, moreover as I have continually stressed MDX has a target alot of drilling (about to commence) is required to convert the target into the JORC

Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- JFE Holdings Inc., the world's third- largest steelmaker, agreed to pay Cia. Vale do Rio Doce 65 percent more for iron ore, setting a global benchmark for prices that's less than some analysts' estimates.

will this re-rate mdx further?? and any iron ore stock in general. I mean its nothing new that ore prices where expected to go up but now we have first confirmation of this news. Surely sets a benchmark for further negotiations?

full article

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayD35wgn3CHw&refer=home

 

[roland]

My guess, is that until they have product to sell, then ore prices are going to be a little irrelevant. However, it does keep the interest in any company in the iron ore business - producers and spec stocks alike.

 

[JimBob]

What inspires me with confidence that there is more of this story yet to unravel is the nearly 700k that went through after close at the daily high of 31c. Has been similar trades going through after close each of the last few days.

 

[pan]

Anyone got any info on Mr Andrew Tsang? For one investor, in a short period of time a 12% stake is not a bad hit. Hope it continues the run tomorrow, its been a hard 6 months on the low side finally I in the green!

cheers

 

[exberliner1]

Well thats a turnaround for sure ....gone from a small loss to a multi bagger in less than a week.

Can I have some more please.

EB

 

[Wilson!]

mdxoa is the one for me, yes we were meant to be together


I am hoping for a dow unaffected day ahead, and a test of 15c on oppies and 20c by the end of the week.

I hope so anyway, but as mdx and mdxoa came up on a buy scan last night, I am assuming it did everywhere else.

If there is a takeover play too, then the free script will be lessened, and hopefully these guys fight it out amongst themselves, pushing the price higher and higher.

If there is iron ore extending into mdx's tenements/leases, then this market cap is going to seem piddly.

 

[alankew]

Without reading through all the conspiracy theory posts on this my take is that RRR are in the process of consolidating all the little players in the area not in order to take them over themselves as they probably couldnt anyway but to prepare for a takeover from a MUCH bigger fish.T/o would be at a much higher than RRR have paid and with their initial investment already having caused action in the SP of the smaller companies their investment apys off even more-dont jnow where Andrew Tsang comes in though

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

mdxoa is the one for me, yes we were meant to be together

Your telling me Wilson, mine are up almost 1000% in 2 weeks and in these markets thats just nuts,

Soon enough I will have to consider locking in profits as the stock is fast approaching my lower target

As for a potential takeover battle, I doubt it, I still think as I have always said that Red Rock found something on their tennements that extends directly into MDX's ground which was the catalyst for them to start buying




Good luck to us all

 

[roland]

Your telling me Wilson, mine are up almost 1000% in 2 weeks and in these markets thats just nuts,



As for a potential takeover battle, I doubt it, I still think as I have always said that Red Rock found something on their tennements that extends directly into MDX's ground which was the catalyst for them to start buying




Good luck to us all

and not good having a nasty neighbor if you want to run a road or railway line through their back yard

 

[roland]

So, I guess people where expecting something better than "3 additional iron targets indentified" ?

Anyway, we need to lose some of the day traders so we can consolidate at this level.

 

[Black Range]

Here's Todays Trading stats for MDX.... WoW what a ride, but it was Interesting to see Buyer support come back after the 3.00p.m Day low of .295 as can be seen clearly within the Intra-Day Trading Chart

No. of Trades: 757
Volume: 11,999,569

Opening Price:. 0.295
High Price:...... 0.395
Low Price:....... 0.295

Todays Close 0.33

Todays last 10 Trades
16:10:58.. 0.330 21,300 $7,029.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 10,000 $3,300.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 1,200.. $396.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 2,500.. $825.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 20,000 $6,600.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 10,000 $3,300.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 15,000 $4,950.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 25,000 $8,250.00
16:10:58.. 0.330 10,000 $3,300.00....XT
16:10:58.. 0.330 50,000 $16,500.00


Closing BUY/SELLER Depths
Buyers:.0.325 (4,415,028)
Sellers: 0.330 (1,690,084)

6-month High: 0.395
5-day EMA:.. 0.237
10-day EMA: 0.198
15-day EMA: 0.177
30-day EMA: 0.153
Avg Volume: 3,358,215
.
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Cheers from grant64
Tomorrow will indeed be a very Interesting Open.
.
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Todays Intra-Day Trading Chart 19th FEB.
Period between 12.18p.m to 4.11p.m close was one hell of a ride from a .395 Day High to a .295 Day Low

 

[roland]

Well Mr Andrew Tsang is now up to 14.63% of Mindax. Would really like to know what he thinks he knows.

 

[alankew]

Roland would like to know who he is and who he is connected with,anyone any ideas.There were posts on HC that a director of RRR was posting and there was a clue in one of the many posts as to his identity,will try to find it

 

[imaginator]

Can someone give me a brief history of events what made this stock shot up so much these few weeks?

TOo many posts and comments to read thru in this thread making me dizzy.

 

[exberliner1]

Alankew....the director of RRR posting on HC went under the name of TigerTen.

I have posted some of his comments in this thread a few weeks ago.

I am just loving this multi bagger atm... seems like a lot more to come.

EB

 

[roland]

Well, Mr Andrew Tsang is at it again. Another $347,000 brings him up to 15.95% ownership. Won't be long before he owns the company

 

[JJKools]

after three days of consolidating in the low 30's, any thoughts where this may be headed today?

Since Andrew Tsang is accumulating more, perhaps RRR may up there stake? Either way, these guys must know something if they are willing to pay big bucks.