Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MCR - Mincor Resources

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Good luck sptrawler, there's a few days left in the August comp so MCR may still climb up the ladder and who knows may even win. I think you are one of the top contenders in 5th position.

Today MCR had an up day against a falling market, perhaps helped by the announcement regarding res upgrade. So in this market it's doing alright I reckon.
 
aus_trader said:
Good luck sptrawler, there's a few days left in the August comp so MCR may still climb up the ladder and who knows may even win. I think you are one of the top contenders in 5th position.

Today MCR had an up day against a falling market, perhaps helped by the announcement regarding res upgrade. So in this market it's doing alright I reckon.
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Big problem is, it isn't a penny dreadful, so it needs a big price movement to improve its percentage. 1c up on a 2c share is a big movement. :D
Mincor would have probably been a better bet in the annual contest, by then they should be producing.:xyxthumbs
 
sptrawler said:
Big problem is, it isn't a penny dreadful, so it needs a big price movement to improve its percentage. 1c up on a 2c share is a big movement. :D
Mincor would have probably been a better bet in the annual contest, by then they should be producing.:xyxthumbs
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I have followed Mincor over the years as well and unlike in it's early days there is no fireworks in the share price movement these days. But you never know, the 'penny dreadful' leaders could tumble giving you the top position ;)

On a more serious note, I've been impressed with MCR management in regards to holding onto assets (Nickel mines) during price downturns by just keeping them mothballed under care and maintenance and when the Ni price is higher, goes back into production. I think this is a smarter strategy than continuing to mine under circumstances where it costs more to produce the stuff than what it could then be sold at. That's recipe for disaster that has taken many small mining firms in the voluntary administration / bankruptcy direction.
 
aus_trader said:
I have followed Mincor over the years as well and unlike in it's early days there is no fireworks in the share price movement these days. But you never know, the 'penny dreadful' leaders could tumble giving you the top position ;)

On a more serious note, I've been impressed with MCR management in regards to holding onto assets (Nickel mines) during price downturns by just keeping them mothballed under care and maintenance and when the Ni price is higher, goes back into production. I think this is a smarter strategy than continuing to mine under circumstances where it costs more to produce the stuff than what it could then be sold at. That's recipe for disaster that has taken many small mining firms in the voluntary administration / bankruptcy direction.
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Yes the management seem to have their head screwed on all right, my son has lived up in Kambalda for the last 15 or so years, so he is looking forward to things starting up again.:xyxthumbs
The Town is still bubbling along on the back of gold mines, but there is nothing like the activity when the nickel mill and concentrator are up and running, they employ a lot more people.
 
sptrawler said:
Out today, now to wait for a re entry.:xyxthumbs
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I can understand going short on stocks and long cash in the current market environment but in my opinion, MCR might still just be waking up from a deep slumber.

I like to look at the Coppock Indicator on the monthly chart when I am considering a stock for a long-term hold (which is my preferred position). I hold.

upload_2019-8-29_13-19-13.png
 
tinhat said:
I can understand going short on stocks and long cash in the current market environment but in my opinion, MCR might still just be waking up from a deep slumber.

I like to look at the Coppock Indicator on the monthly chart when I am considering a stock for a long-term hold (which is my preferred position). I hold.

View attachment 97136
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I agree with you and hopefully get back in, just locking in a profit ATM.
 
sptrawler said:
Out today, now to wait for a re entry.:xyxthumbs
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Well done on the profit. I have traded this in the past for a profit as well.

As you and tinhat said, this may have further upside if the Ni mines are confirmed to re-start in the near future. Annual report showed a good amount of cash remaining mainly from the cap raise, so looks pretty good to start generating profits from mining.

Nice bullish up day today to sell into but might have to wait for a pull back to buy...

tinhat, how do you use or what do you look for with Cappock indicator ? I've also come across one called Cappock guide. Are they the same ?
 
Hi @aus_trader

I'm only aware of the one Coppock indicator, I don't know of any variations so there are probably just different terms that refer to the same thing.

I subscribe to the Lincoln Indicators Stock Doctor service and I have been using their PC based charting program for years. That is where I got that chart from. That chart format is my own creation. The first indicator is the Commodity Channel (which I don't really use, I should remove it). The bottom indicator is the Coppock. This is the description of the Coppock that is provided in the Stock Doctor charting programme:

"Created by Edwin Coppock. Designed to signal when stock market "mourning" would be over following a crash in it's price. This period was thought to be between 11 and 14 months as this is how long church leaders advised Coppock that it took for a person to get over the death of a loved one.

"WIth [sic] default parameters this indicator is intended for a monthly chart. To adapt to a daily chart change parameters to 231 and 294 for ROC periods and 210 for the WMA periods."​

My understanding is Coppock designed the indicator based on the advice of a clergyman about how long the period of emotional grieving usually takes following the death of a loved one.

It is a slow-moving, long-lagging indicator. As such it should give some confidence that a bottom has been passed in a stock's price behaviour. My understanding is that it is intended to be used to confirm that a stock has bottomed, which is indicated by the Coppock indicator bottoming and turning up.

I am primarily a fundamental analysis (FA) investor so I am generally hoping to find and hold long term positions. I am, however, increasingly looking for increased guidance on buy and sell signals via technical analysis (TA). Now some FA will not countenance the use of TA as they consider the two to be antithetic, two sides of a coin. Whereas for me a coin is still a coin regardless of whether it is showing tails or heads. FA purists will state that in the short term the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine; that in the long-run price will align with value. In retort a TA purist will argue that the market might be wrong for longer than you remain liquid (which reminds me of Keynes's quote "In the long run we are all dead", which I assume was a retort to neo-classical laissez-fairism).

I do like the idea of owning equity in (a part of) an enterprise which I believe will generate genuine economic and social benefit. I like Nickel because of the emerging electric vehicle and renewable energy storage theme.

With that said, the reality is that I am investing my money and my family's money to make more money for our financial security. Time is opportunity-cost; money lost that could have been made elsewhere. That is the financial concept of net present value which any FA should be familiar with.

Markets exhibit behavior which cannot be explained by FA. Markets are driven by human behavior (including bots programmed by humans and motivated by their greed) and that behaviour appears to follow other patterns of behavior (dynamics) observed in the natural world.

So, why be out in the surf when there are no waves to catch when you could be checking out the girls on the beach? Why stand in the middle of a stampede or not avoid a traffic jam if you could? Why suffer the risk of opportunity-cost if you feel that you might be able to avoid some of that risk? And here lies the rub. What any investor that eschews TA is not telling you is that the reason is they don't know how to implement TA and that at best it is a zero sum game and at worst a losing strategy because it clouds judgement.

I like looking at monthly, weekly and daily charts and I apply different indicators and studies to them all. Market price movements are fractal, which is evident from the fact that people apply similar TA to study of intra-day, end of day, weekly and monthly time-frames. My investing style is to look for long-term positions, but in gauging the market I like to look at all three time scales.

Many people are familiar with the beautiful Mandelbrot Set images. For people who don't know a lot about Benoit Mandelbrot, it might be of interest to know that he came to fractal geometry from early work he did with IBM studying line noise on telephone lines. He noticed that noise patterns during data transfer occurred in a fractal manner; that is that similar patterns could be observed repeating at different time scales. He went on the pioneer the use of fractal geometry and observed that it also applied to financial markets.

That's the how and why I use the Coppock indicator on a monthly chart.
 
Hi austrader, I'm sure there is heaps of upside in MCR, but with the volatility ATM, there could quite easily be a retracement due to the trade war issues.
Longer term the push toward battery storage is only going to increase, and MCR are perfectly placed to benefit.
If there is no retracement, the price I think will dwell around this price, untill they announce the start up date.
Then I will buy back in, I may lose a bit of up side, but I avoid possible down side.
Tinhats method is much more accurate, but I find being retired I am limited with the time I spend doing research, this is due to family and holiday commitments.
It would be much easier, if my other half was interested. Lol
Just my opinion.
 
sptrawler said:
Hi austrader, I'm sure there is heaps of upside in MCR, but with the volatility ATM, there could quite easily be a retracement due to the trade war issues.
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Yes, a retracement would be what I am looking for to buy some stock, I generally don't like to chase the price higher. So let's wait and see...
 
tinhat said:
It is a slow-moving, long-lagging indicator. As such it should give some confidence that a bottom has been passed in a stock's price behaviour. My understanding is that it is intended to be used to confirm that a stock has bottomed, which is indicated by the Coppock indicator bottoming and turning up.
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Being slow and lagging is probably a good thing. If it is very responsive like RSI, Stock or even CCI which you have on your chart, then the problem is too many false signals that indicates a stock is over sold. With just a small bounce in the share price, which may indicate a bottom might be in using any of the above indicators it's easy to buy into a falling stock too early.

Coppock looks interesting for the longer timeframes. Thanks for the explanation of how it functions and a bit of background on the indicator.

I am also mainly into FA and stock research. However I do not have any negative bias towards TA or chart reading. I actually find charts interesting and help me gauge the market's perception of the stock by looking at the chart. Therefore I use charting to try and avoid buying into falling stocks even if the fundamental case is strong. I think you have a similar approach from what you said, I especially like the bit:
tinhat said:
So, why be out in the surf when there are no waves to catch when you could be checking out the girls on the beach?
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MCR is really having a good run supported by the news flow of late, such as the exceptional hits of Ni from the recent drilling:

upload_2019-9-6_13-58-52.png


Leaves my Nickel Cobalt spec play in the dust in terms of recent performance. I have CLQ in my spec portfolio for a while and it hasn't gone anywhere compared to the bigger Ni players like MCR, WSA and IGO. Hoping some of the shine on Ni may rub off onto small cap Ni spec's or I'll have to join the likes of MCR on a decent pull back...
 
sptrawler said:
Back in today at 64c, didn't go as planned, but not much damage.
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It's always hard to know when a stock will pull back and when it'll take off. If we knew then making money would be easy.

All we can do is to manage trades that has higher probability of going in our favour.
 

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