Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Market Timing

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7 May 2008
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An investment pundit was just on TV here talking about his firm doesn't do market timing. They identify stocks with good fundamentals and invest in it, whether the stock market, or the individual stock, is going up, down, or staying level (these are the large cap, blue-chip stocks; not high-risk stocks). When they get out, the timing may have to do with profit-taking, portfolio balancing or what have you.

While I can understand the viewpoint on the sell side, the buy side doesn't make sense to this beginner. Perhaps for investors with long time horizons, the rolling average on the buy side evens out in the end.

On the other hand, isn't one better off putting cash into an interest-earning account and waiting until a seasonal or market dip or using some basic technical analysis? After all, you're sitting on dead money and a paper loss when the market goes down, when you could have been earning, albeit minimal, interest.

I'd be interested in hearing how ASF's T/As would approach a long-term buy in blue chips, if they were to make the decision to take that approach with a couple of blue chips. Similarly, it would be interesting to hear from the F/As about whether they would engage in some technical market timing for blue chip purchases.








Then again, maybe I just like provoking battles between people I've never met who live half a world away. ;)
 
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