Market response to the Election outcome

Market experts say market will respond well to a clear winner but be sensitive to big policy changes​

The sharemarket will take Labor’s election win in its stride but will be sensitive in the coming months to any signs of loose fiscal policy that could spur higher inflation and force rates upward, market watchers say.

With Anthony Albanese claiming victory, economists and fund managers predict an overall muted reaction on the Australian Securities Exchange on Monday, with some tipping a potential boost for the energy sector, including in renewables, after the opposition went to the election promising stronger action on climate change.

Others warned the incoming Labor government would need to resist the temptation to flash the cash to cushion the impact of higher household costs, with this path only likely to fan the inflationary flames, hitting both consumers and business.

While SPI futures are pointing to a slight decline at the open, of 0.2 per cent, the sharemarket could get a mild boost from a more certain election outcome than many were expecting, CommSec chief economist Craig James said.

“The removal of uncertainty is a real positive for the markets and we’ve seen in past elections that when you get a clearer election result after the poll day then markets tend to respond positively.

“So instead of a downturn of 15 points (0.2 per cent), we might see something close to flat or even a small positive as investors start to work in the fact that the result came in widely as expected and, if anything, a little bit more positive that it’s not going to be a hung parliament.”

ENERGY

At the margin there might be increased interest in renewable-focused stocks, he added.

“There’s an expectation that there will be a greater focus on renewables from Labor. We still have to see the details of those policies, but in terms of broad trends, the renewable energy sector certainly has the potential for gains.”

The election outcome would help to resolve uncertainty in the energy sector, BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese said.

“A lot of investment in energy has been held back due to uncertainty but I think there will now be a lot more clarity now.

“Labor and the independents are committed to climate change and greater clarity in the shift to renewables. So businesses will now be able to invest with greater certainty in terms of the direction of energy policy in Australia.”

The sharemarket will also be weighing higher spending under Labor as well as rising costs for business, such as a 5 per cent lift in the minimum wage that will hit the retail and hospitality sectors hard, Tribeca portfolio manager Jun Bei Liu added.

“With a Labor government, we do expect a little bit more spending upfront. They have also talked to their support for a 5.1 per cent increase in minimum wage.

“All of that is going to add a little bit more inflationary pressure, and potentially means interest rates might have to go a little bit higher further down the road,” Ms Liu said.

Incoming Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this month said he supported a lift in the minimum wage that would see worker’s take-home pay “not going backwards”. Unions are calling for a 5.5 per cent jump in wages ahead of the Fair Work Commission’s decision expected in June.

LISTED FIRMS

Any ASX-listed companies that have very high labour costs could potentially come under pressure on the sharemarket because of the likely rise in the minimum wage, Ms Liu added.

The retail sector is already nursing bruising losses suffered on Thursday last week, when the broader sharemarket suffered its fifth-biggest drop of the year.

Among discretionary retailers, Wesfarmers plunged 7.8 per cent to $45.89, JB Hi-Fi tumbled 6.6 per cent, Super Retail Group lost 6 per cent and Harvey Norman fell 5.5 per cent. A portion of the losses were recovered in Friday’s session.

“About 20 per cent of our employment market is linked to the minimum wage (and awards). So if that rises by 5.1 per cent, that’s quite high compared to the previous trends and potentially those labour-intensive businesses will feel the impact. We’re talking retail, healthcare and even the banks,” Ms Liu warned.

CRYPTO

Crypto operators, meanwhile, will watch carefully for any regulatory shifts from the incoming government, BTC Markets chief executive Caroline Bowler said.

“A cross party Senate committee (in late 2021) reported on and made recommendations with regards to cryptocurrency regulation. So the expectation now is that the mantle passes on to the Labor government; we hope they pick that up and move forward with it,” Ms Bowler said.

“Certainly the industry has been pushing for appropriate regulation of our sector. This is the next trend coming through across the US, UK and Asia and for the incoming government the issue will be about making sure we stay abreast of these changes and that they are reflected appropriately within our own regulatory environment.”

HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham cautioned on the difficult macro environment Labor is stepping in to.

“Labor faces quite a large challenge in terms of how to manage fiscal policy settings as inflation picks up in Australia,” Mr Bloxham warned.

“There is a role for fiscal policy to play, but if monetary policy is tightening and fiscal policy loosens in a substantial way, then that may very well put more pressure on the RBA, meaning they would have to lift interest rates even more.”

SPENDING

Any spending by the new government needs to be highly targeted, he said.

“To the extent that you provide direct support for households that are really hit by cost-of-living challenges, it’s got to be very targeted because the overall fiscal stance needs to consider the broader inflationary environment.

“Both monetary and fiscal policymakers are much more constrained now because inflation has picked up. There are just fewer options available but that‘s what higher inflation does; it limits options.”

One such targeted spending policy the Labor party has already committed to is its $5.4bn plan to boost childcare subsidies.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said there was a good argument to spend in this area to get more women back into the workforce and driving productivity gains.

But he urged the incoming government to avoid following the Coalition’s lead in giving cash handouts to struggling households.

“You could argue that the Coalition‘s approach in the last budget to support households, while understandable for social reasons, made the Reserve Bank’s job even harder,” Mr Oliver noted.

“So Labor will have to resist that approach and focus more on productivity enhancing measures.”

Part of the Albanese government’s issue as it comes in to power is it has a very narrow mandate as a result of having pursued a “small target strategy”, independent economist Saul Eslake said.

“In particular they have no mandate for budget repair. Nor do they really have any mandate for any reforms that might materially lift the abysmal rate of labour productivity growth that Australia has experienced over the past decade,” Mr Eslake warned.

Proposed changes to childcare and free TAFE courses would only make a difference to productivity “at the margins”, he cautioned.

“They are also bound by all the promises they made as to what they wouldn't do and now they have to work within that. They need to free themselves from those constraints ahead of the 2025 election.”

CLIONA O'DOWD​

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JohnDe said:

One of the positives will be China. The LNP brand is mud to the China political class, but now with the Labor Party running the show things will change and there will be smiles in some sections of China politics. The door to negotiation is slightly ajar, and with that the markets may factor in a small ray of hope. I haven't seen any commentary on this yet but the next few weeks will be interesting.

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SirRumpole said:

Maybe, but Albanese shows few signs of walking away from the US Alliance that has always stuck in China's throat.

We can all hope for an improvement in Aus/China relations but I wouldn't necessarily take it for granted.

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Foreign investors are fleeing China​

Xi Jinping’s policies are having a profound impact on markets—and a painful one​

May 22nd 2022 | SHANGHAI
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Jing’an century, a housing development with ponds and lush greenery in north Shanghai, should have been bustling with activity as workers put the finishing touches on flats. Instead the area is silent. A two-month lockdown of the city of 25m people has forced the developer, a large group called Yanlord, to halt construction on the site. Homebuyers have been on edge for months as some of the country’s largest developers default on bonds and struggle to deliver homes to ordinary Chinese buyers.

Now Yanlord, until recently considered to be in tolerable shape, has been forced to tell customers they will not receive their properties on time. At least 20 housing developments across the city have announced similar delays. Many other property projects have been forced to stop selling units. The lockdown has been so severe that roadblocks and police checkpoints have appeared across the city. Workers, building materials and sales agents have simply been unable to reach construction sites. Meanwhile Yanlord’s pre-sales of homes fell by more than 80% in April, compared with the previous year.

China’s property crisis is not new. But growing fears among foreign investors of a grand policy disaster are. The combination of a serious downturn in the housing market and Xi Jinping’s uncompromising zero-covid policy is just one recent conundrum that has led foreign fund managers to question whether China is losing its pragmatic approach to managing the economy.

Mr Xi’s insistence on using prolonged lockdowns to rid China of the Omicron variant, as well as his backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine, are being seen as ideological pursuits that ignore economic and geopolitical realities. Add in the timing of his crackdown on tech groups such as Alibaba, an e-commerce company, and on the leverage of property giants such as Evergrande, and it helps explain why some of the world’s largest investment groups are questioning the quality of leadership in Beijing. Many attribute this and other ideological campaigns to preparations for the Communist Party congress set to be held in the autumn, at which Mr Xi is expected to be granted another five years in office. The events of 2022 could shape how global investors view China for years to come.

In little over a year Mr Xi’s policies have had a profound impact on global markets—and a painful one. They have knocked $2trn from Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong and New York. Chinese initial public offerings in these two cities have nearly ground to a halt this year. China’s property firms have sold just $280m in high-yield dollar bonds so far in 2022, down from $15.6bn during the same period last year, according to Dealogic, a data provider. Within China, the value of yuan-denominated financial assets held by foreigners fell by more than 1trn yuan ($150bn) in the first three months of 2022, the biggest drop ever. The Institute of International Finance (iif), a bankers’ group in Washington, forecasts that a total of $300bn in capital will flow out of the country this year, up from $129bn in 2021.

Onshore markets were one of the linchpins in China’s relations with the outside world. The belief that they would continue to open up and yield high returns helped to maintain links with powerful, Western financiers hoping to strike it rich. Even as relations between America and China soured during the Trump years, and a trade war dampened global sentiment, an exuberance for onshore securities took hold of many of the world’s biggest financial groups. As relations with the West deteriorated, regulators in Beijing began expediting long-promised reforms, eventually allowing foreign financial groups to wholly own their onshore businesses.

The policies were a clear sign that Beijing meant business. And the West reciprocated. In 2018 msci added Chinese shares to its flagship emerging-markets index. Several other index inclusions followed, leading to a windfall in inflows into onshore Chinese securities. Between the start of 2017 and a peak at the end of 2021, foreign financial exposure to yuan-denominated assets (stocks, bonds, loans and deposits) more than tripled from about 3trn yuan to 10.8trn yuan.

That elation is now quickly dying off. Many foreign investors simply grew too enthusiastic about China in recent years and chose to ignore the risks, says Hugh Young of Aberdeen, an asset manager. The market is now waking up. The view from many investors is that, although China has never been more open to foreign capital flows, it has also not been this ideologically inflexible in recent memory.

China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine has led to concerns over its claim on Taiwan, which it says it will eventually take back by any means necessary. Geopolitical concerns such as this are part of a broad recalibration of the risks associated with China. “Policy risk has increased markedly,” says Neil Shearing of Capital Economics, a research firm. That has led to an increase in the risk premia on Chinese assets demanded by investors.

Some top investment groups are becoming more public about these views. BlackRock, a giant asset manager that has been expanding rapidly in China, said on May 9th that it had shifted its 6-to-12-month view of Chinese equities to “neutral” from “modest overweight”. This is mainly because of the bad economic picture, but also reflects China’s ties to Russia. Julius Baer, a private bank, said in April that it was ending a five-year call that Chinese equities would eventually become a “core asset class”.


This shift has contributed to a foreign sell-off of onshore stocks and bonds. The selldown of yuan-denominated bonds has also been driven by a weaker currency and higher interest rates in America. The value of foreign-held equities in China has fallen by nearly 20% in the first three months of the year, or by about 755bn yuan. Much of this drop is explained by a fall in stock valuations; the csi 300, a key index, is down by more than 17% since the start of the year. But foreign investors are also scaling back their exposure. Foreign equity holdings as a share of China’s stockmarket fell from about 4.3% at the end of 2021 to just below 4% in March. Gavekal, a research group, calculates that total foreign equity holdings have fallen by about 2% so far this year. Prolonged equity outflows are not certain; a long-awaited interest-rate cut by the People’s Bank of China on May 20th could buoy sentiment. But several portfolio managers expect outflows to continue until there is more clarity around economic policy.

The gloomy mood has been painful for China’s small and diminishing cohort of liberal technocrats, who are still hard at work defending an open China that is at least mildly sensitive to the concerns of global investors. For years regulators have used carefully timed reforms to reward long-term investors and their dedication to China. As sentiment soured in April they succeeded in delivering a package of long-awaited private-pension reforms in an attempt to woo asset managers. It was a salve regulators had been holding onto in the expectation that sentiment would probably worsen early this year, says one fund manager.

Many investors see 2022 as a bellwether year for the future direction of policy. The optimistic outlook, says the regional head of one global asset manager, is that this gloomy period of ideology, policy missteps and beleaguered growth is part of the preparation for the Party congress in the autumn. Once that passes, pragmatists will have more control of policy. Zero-covid will be wound down and support for the economy and tech firms will be ample.

This camp includes many of the investment managers who have slogged it out in China for decades. Global banks have been telling investors for 20 years that the Chinese market is a one-way bet. Changing that narrative is almost impossible. Only a war over Taiwan, or a hot conflict of that nature, could upend it, says one foreign banker in China.

The pessimistic view is that Mr Xi is serious about the direction in which he has taken China over the past two years and that the future will be far more ideological. s&p, a rating agency, warned on May 19th that policy shocks to education, housing, labour and social welfare are set to continue for years. Global investors have been slow to grasp the significance of China’s policy changes, says Nikolaj Schmidt of T. Rowe Price, an investment manager. It is unlikely things will return to normal soon.

Mr Xi’s zero-covid policy and the unrelenting lockdown of Shanghai has also raised concerns about China’s leadership. Some investors worry that the country has turned its back on growth; that zero-covid could be a sign of a factional struggle in Beijing; or that it will eventually lead to one. “When investors hear they’re getting dragged into politics, that’s when they get nervous,” says Sean Debow of Eurizon Capital Asia, an asset manager.

One probable outcome in the months ahead is a growing divergence between the investors outside of China and those with large and growing offices inside the country, says Gene Ma of the iif. Many groups that have worked for decades to open up in the country are continuing to hire more staff. Investors that have accessed the onshore market through Hong Kong, by contrast, may continue to reduce their exposure. If anything, investing in China will only become more divisive this year.

Foreign investors are fleeing China

Xi Jinping’s policies are having a profound impact on markets—and a painful one

www.economist.com

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JohnDe said:

True we can all hope, with some help from change in circumstances.

Pressure is mounting on Xi from internal economic factors, a new Australian government could be a possible way out of the total political vacuum with Australia and the PRC.

"growing fears among foreign investors of a grand policy disaster are. The combination of a serious downturn in the housing market and Xi Jinping’s uncompromising zero-covid policy is just one recent conundrum that has led foreign fund managers to question whether China is losing its pragmatic approach to managing the economy.​

​

Mr Xi’s insistence on using prolonged lockdowns to rid China of the Omicron variant, as well as his backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine, are being seen as ideological pursuits that ignore economic and geopolitical realities. Add in the timing of his crackdown on tech groups such as Alibaba, an e-commerce company, and on the leverage of property giants such as Evergrande, and it helps explain why some of the world’s largest investment groups are questioning the quality of leadership in Beijing. Many attribute this and other ideological campaigns to preparations for the Communist Party congress set to be held in the autumn, at which Mr Xi is expected to be granted another five years in office. The events of 2022 could shape how global investors view China for years to come.​

​

In little over a year Mr Xi’s policies have had a profound impact on global markets—and a painful one. They have knocked $2trn from Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong and New York. Chinese initial public offerings in these two cities have nearly ground to a halt this year. China’s property firms have sold just $280m in high-yield dollar bonds so far in 2022, down from $15.6bn during the same period last year, according to Dealogic, a data provider. Within China, the value of yuan-denominated financial assets held by foreigners fell by more than 1trn yuan ($150bn) in the first three months of 2022, the biggest drop ever. The Institute of International Finance (iif), a bankers’ group in Washington, forecasts that a total of $300bn in capital will flow out of the country this year, up from $129bn in 2021."​

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Garpal Gumnut said:

I'd be waiting until 11.30 until some large and important Federal Liberal identities past and present work out after seeing their lawyers yesterday whether or not they will be lining up for a Federal ICAC.

All those contracts put out, so few in the know to take them up for a pittance.

Forget about the environment, wages and debt.

The main game today will be transferring assets to Grandma before the show goes up and the only beds available are beside Eddie, Ian and Co. up at Cooma.

There may be some selling.

gg

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divs4ever said:

damn , GG you were about an hour early

the market is now hovering near zero

( but nice work )

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China’s media welcomes Morrison defeat, cautious on Labor

China’s state-controlled media and key commentators have welcomed Scott Morrison’s election defeat amid early signs that Beijing may be willing to reopen dialogue with Australian officials after freezing out Coalition ministers two years ago.

However, Beijing has not yet officially responded to the election outcome, with propaganda outlets adopting a cautious tone towards Anthony Albanese and warning that a change of government would not automatically reset relations.

China Australia relations have suffered disastrous setbacks during the Turnbull and Morrison years. We hope a change of the government will bring about sensibility and new thinking to Australia’s China policy,” Chen Hong, director of the Australian Studies Centre at Shanghai’s East China Normal University, told The Australian Financial Review on Sunday.

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JohnDe said:

A few hours is not a time frame to gauge whether any positives from a new government will come about between China and Australia and business.

Like any investment decisions, take your time and look around.

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Mohammed Hazabig'un said:

Hang Seng taking XJO with it?

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Dona Ferentes said:

Elephant in Room (or not)... excerpts from AFR:

Not so long ago, boards and executives could worry about shareholder returns and financial performance first, second and third. [With t]he emergence of ESG (environmental, social, governance) issues, [ ] companies now know both their social licence to operate and cost of capital depend at least in part on balancing financial returns with matters such as emissions reduction, gender diversity, inclusion and accountability.

But really, these forces have transformed the business sector in the past five years, for better or worse.

The biggest area of change the business community will need to navigate under Anthony Albanese will be in the area of climate policy, although exactly what this eventually might look like will depend on whether Labor can form a majority government, and how the votes in the Senate fall.

Like all things there will be winners and losers. And, to my mind, the more any government tries to pick them, the worse the outcomes. Sadly, they don't seem to be able to stop thinking they're important and the new flush of colour politics look even more woke.

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Dona Ferentes said:

Elephant in Room (or not)... excerpts from AFR:

Not so long ago, boards and executives could worry about shareholder returns and financial performance first, second and third. [With t]he emergence of ESG (environmental, social, governance) issues, [ ] companies now know both their social licence to operate and cost of capital depend at least in part on balancing financial returns with matters such as emissions reduction, gender diversity, inclusion and accountability.

But really, these forces have transformed the business sector in the past five years, for better or worse.

The biggest area of change the business community will need to navigate under Anthony Albanese will be in the area of climate policy, although exactly what this eventually might look like will depend on whether Labor can form a majority government, and how the votes in the Senate fall.

Like all things there will be winners and losers. And, to my mind, the more any government tries to pick them, the worse the outcomes. Sadly, they don't seem to be able to stop thinking they're important and the new flush of colour politics look even more woke.

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JohnDe said:

Not all stocks are down, some are in the green.

I have a mixed bag of green and red with AEF, IFM, PH2, DDR, SSM, BHP and a few others looking ok.

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basilio said:

I think this government will want to move very quickly on some key areas. I'd be amazed and very disappointed if the ICAC legislation is not presented and passed with a few months. One would also hope that there will be sufficient resources in terms of staffing and multiple judges to begin parallel investigations by year end.

The policies and programs around accelerating renewable energy investment in Australia and ensuring the lights don't go out when coal fired stations close down has to be an immediate priority. Mucking around for 18 months would be a recipe for electoral disaster. The pressure from Greens ,Teal and Labour voters to see this happen will be massive. Hopefully.. someone has been doing their homework and can hit the ground running. There are certainly enough organisations that have developed strategies that would be capable of being put into action.

I can see a lot of midnight oil being burnt in the new Government.

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