Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,690
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- 10,288
well there are several dark birds circling , are any of them black swansI just wonder whether a financial meltdown is not a possibility this year. I do worry about what some are calling a bubble in the US markets. The Deepseek effect on the NASDAQ has caused a small pause but retail investors are again throwing money at stocks many of which they do not understand. Opinions on the effects of a Chinese competitor to Nvidia are appearing iin the popular press next to the latest society scandals. Large funds are selling Nvidia and similar stocks while retail flocks in to them. This is what happens in bubbles.
More of a worry is the spending by many of the Magnificent 7 stocks on chips and data centres, ETF's and funds for the latter are springing up here in Australia as well.
The biggest worries are War and the forgotten Presidential style of Donald J. Trump. While wars are impossible to stop, the President of the USA seems hell bent on promoting bitcoin as an alternative to the $USD. When the ineviable veil of ignorance on tokens and crypto is lifted the US Treasury will have to print money again. The promotion and holding of bitcoin by his own companies and Trump appointed regulators loosening regulations will only heighten the problem. Yet the US commentary is blind to this lack of proper governance.
Crashes are never predicted with any exactitude but the circumstances are developing for one to occur. But who wants to get off a merry go round when the young lady on the horse ahead turns and smiles enticingly at you. Where the US MArkets go in a crash, there goes the ASX.
End of rant.
gg
@divs4ever I guess your tag says it all, well done.well there are several dark birds circling , are any of them black swans
the world economy looks as fragile as heck to me , but will they fill those bubbles with more borrowed/leveraged cash and cryptos
how good are they at kicking that can further away ?
i am ( nearly ) all-in in the market , but many of those positions are 100% profits running ( can be crystallized almost instantly without pain )
well at 70 ( years old ) and limited ability to fund a recovery if i am wiped out@divs4ever I guess your tag says it all, well done.
@divs4ever Just stay a happy chappie divswell at 70 ( years old ) and limited ability to fund a recovery if i am wiped out
where should i be
in dire circumstances even property may go to zero
now younger healthier members may have more options
@DannyB0000 Smart move I reckon. How much has Warren Buffet pulled recently??There's still to much money going into just US stocks. I read millennial investors and super funds are all in with US stocks, there was a record amount of money going into etf funds to do with that market last year. Super funds were warned to top up their cash levels in case the market started suddenly going south.
I moved more than half of my super money back to cash before Trump went back into the White House because I thought US stocks were already significantly overvalued, how much higher can stocks go from here. Some people are betting their all of their retirement money on the market going even higher, but I am more conservative this year and wary.
Cash pile is $325 Billion USD, so Buffett has an arsenal of money ready to deploy in case stocks get a lot cheaper.@DannyB0000 Smart move I reckon. How much has Warren Buffet pulled recently??
i have been parking some cash into long-life commodities/essentials in case of a 'long dark winter ' because i worry the banks might have some panic moments as wellThere's still to much money going into just US stocks. I read millennial investors and super funds are all in with US stocks, there was a record amount of money going into etf funds to do with that market last year. Super funds were warned to top up their cash levels in case the market started suddenly going south.
I moved more than half of my super money back to cash before Trump went back into the White House because I thought US stocks were already significantly overvalued, how much higher can stocks go from here. Some people are betting their all of their retirement money on the market going even higher, but I am more conservative this year and wary.
Buffet does corporate buy-outs , and loans to prime borrowers , Warren has plenty of choices but only selects a fewCash pile is $325 Billion USD, so Buffett has an arsenal of money ready to deploy in case stocks get a lot cheaper.
it's only 2 percent down..
If you try and sell your shares on a day like today you will get trampled on because everyone is rushing the exits at the same time, no floor with stock prices.
well sweeping tariffs normally have unfortunate consequencesTrump has pulled back from the tariffs. I did hear there were some very unhappy Republicans.
I think next time the tariffs will be smaller and more targeted but who knows?
Div's has the quote of all time right here. Onya divs.i guess we will have to watch and react if necessary
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