Market Crash 2025

[Garpal Gumnut]

I just wonder whether a financial meltdown is not a possibility this year. I do worry about what some are calling a bubble in the US markets. The Deepseek effect on the NASDAQ has caused a small pause but retail investors are again throwing money at stocks many of which they do not understand. Opinions on the effects of a Chinese competitor to Nvidia are appearing iin the popular press next to the latest society scandals. Large funds are selling Nvidia and similar stocks while retail flocks in to them. This is what happens in bubbles.

More of a worry is the spending by many of the Magnificent 7 stocks on chips and data centres, ETF's and funds for the latter are springing up here in Australia as well.

The biggest worries are War and the forgotten Presidential style of Donald J. Trump. While wars are impossible to stop, the President of the USA seems hell bent on promoting bitcoin as an alternative to the $USD. When the ineviable veil of ignorance on tokens and crypto is lifted the US Treasury will have to print money again. The promotion and holding of bitcoin by his own companies and Trump appointed regulators loosening regulations will only heighten the problem. Yet the US commentary is blind to this lack of proper governance.

Crashes are never predicted with any exactitude but the circumstances are developing for one to occur. But who wants to get off a merry go round when the young lady on the horse ahead turns and smiles enticingly at you. Where the US MArkets go in a crash, there goes the ASX.

End of rant.

gg

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Minsky will have his moment

 

[divs4ever]

I just wonder whether a financial meltdown is not a possibility this year. I do worry about what some are calling a bubble in the US markets. The Deepseek effect on the NASDAQ has caused a small pause but retail investors are again throwing money at stocks many of which they do not understand. Opinions on the effects of a Chinese competitor to Nvidia are appearing iin the popular press next to the latest society scandals. Large funds are selling Nvidia and similar stocks while retail flocks in to them. This is what happens in bubbles.

More of a worry is the spending by many of the Magnificent 7 stocks on chips and data centres, ETF's and funds for the latter are springing up here in Australia as well.

The biggest worries are War and the forgotten Presidential style of Donald J. Trump. While wars are impossible to stop, the President of the USA seems hell bent on promoting bitcoin as an alternative to the $USD. When the ineviable veil of ignorance on tokens and crypto is lifted the US Treasury will have to print money again. The promotion and holding of bitcoin by his own companies and Trump appointed regulators loosening regulations will only heighten the problem. Yet the US commentary is blind to this lack of proper governance.

Crashes are never predicted with any exactitude but the circumstances are developing for one to occur. But who wants to get off a merry go round when the young lady on the horse ahead turns and smiles enticingly at you. Where the US MArkets go in a crash, there goes the ASX.

End of rant.

gg

well there are several dark birds circling , are any of them black swans

the world economy looks as fragile as heck to me , but will they fill those bubbles with more borrowed/leveraged cash and cryptos

how good are they at kicking that can further away ?

i am ( nearly ) all-in in the market , but many of those positions are 100% profits running ( can be crystallized almost instantly without pain )

 

[farmerge]

well there are several dark birds circling , are any of them black swans

the world economy looks as fragile as heck to me , but will they fill those bubbles with more borrowed/leveraged cash and cryptos

how good are they at kicking that can further away ?

i am ( nearly ) all-in in the market , but many of those positions are 100% profits running ( can be crystallized almost instantly without pain )

@divs4ever I guess your tag says it all, well done.

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever I guess your tag says it all, well done.

well at 70 ( years old ) and limited ability to fund a recovery if i am wiped out

where should i be

in dire circumstances even property may go to zero

now younger healthier members may have more options

 

[farmerge]

well at 70 ( years old ) and limited ability to fund a recovery if i am wiped out

where should i be

in dire circumstances even property may go to zero

now younger healthier members may have more options

@divs4ever Just stay a happy chappie divs
For us the stock market is more of a limited cash source as the livestock, machinery and farmland will be our retirement package if and when the rug gets pulled.
I don't know about you, but family and friends say why don't you retire
I'm 75 and thoroughly enjoy and get satisfaction from what I do, so why retire to grow fat and old and then die unhappy!!!!
Just my warped outlook on how we live our life.
I might add "She Who is Never Wrong" would be most unhappy if I am around too much ha ha ha.

 

[DannyB0000]

There's still to much money going into just US stocks. I read millennial investors and super funds are all in with US stocks, there was a record amount of money going into etf funds to do with that market last year. Super funds were warned to top up their cash levels in case the market started suddenly going south.

I moved more than half of my super money back to cash before Trump went back into the White House because I thought US stocks were already significantly overvalued, how much higher can stocks go from here. Some people are betting their all of their retirement money on the market going even higher, but I am more conservative this year and wary.

 

[farmerge]

There's still to much money going into just US stocks. I read millennial investors and super funds are all in with US stocks, there was a record amount of money going into etf funds to do with that market last year. Super funds were warned to top up their cash levels in case the market started suddenly going south.

I moved more than half of my super money back to cash before Trump went back into the White House because I thought US stocks were already significantly overvalued, how much higher can stocks go from here. Some people are betting their all of their retirement money on the market going even higher, but I am more conservative this year and wary.

@DannyB0000 Smart move I reckon. How much has Warren Buffet pulled recently??

 

[TimeISmoney]

The power struggle between the US and China is dangerous for the markets, how this all plays out in the future is anyone's guess at the moment. I honestly think that the US is starting to lose dominance, other nations are more willing to trade in their own currency to try and take away the advantages from the USD.

The markets aren't what they used to be, where you could hold a decent stock for a long period of time and still make a generous amount of money, now it's the smallest boo and it scares people into running like sheep.

 

[Knobby22]

The rise has been quite sharp under Biden. the correction didn't last.
And not shown on the graph (which finishes in March 2024) is the continuing rise and the latest price of 6071.
Looks unsustainable. I also am wary.

 

[finicky]

Have a significant cash and pms hedge set aside imo. Bitcoin of you believe in it (I don't). It's quite a consolation in a crash to be able to buy. I picked up a few goodies in the 2020 Wuhan crash, although I was timid with the amounts allocated in hindsight. Also the last thing you'd want is a forced sell due to an obligation that arises during a crash because of no cash buffer.

 

[DannyB0000]

@DannyB0000 Smart move I reckon. How much has Warren Buffet pulled recently??

Cash pile is $325 Billion USD, so Buffett has an arsenal of money ready to deploy in case stocks get a lot cheaper.

 

[divs4ever]

There's still to much money going into just US stocks. I read millennial investors and super funds are all in with US stocks, there was a record amount of money going into etf funds to do with that market last year. Super funds were warned to top up their cash levels in case the market started suddenly going south.

I moved more than half of my super money back to cash before Trump went back into the White House because I thought US stocks were already significantly overvalued, how much higher can stocks go from here. Some people are betting their all of their retirement money on the market going even higher, but I am more conservative this year and wary.

i have been parking some cash into long-life commodities/essentials in case of a 'long dark winter ' because i worry the banks might have some panic moments as well

( you know the stuff you can store at home , ready to use if needed )

some will be in hell if the credit/debit card stops functioning even for a couple of weeks
a 25% correction would cause much pain to some , but what if the corrections is way deeper , can you count on the Government for emergency QE once again

money is only useful if you can deploy it at will ( ask Russia with their $300 billion in frozen assets )

 

[divs4ever]

Cash pile is $325 Billion USD, so Buffett has an arsenal of money ready to deploy in case stocks get a lot cheaper.

Buffet does corporate buy-outs , and loans to prime borrowers , Warren has plenty of choices but only selects a few

watch Apple and see if Warren timed his sell-down there rather nicely

it might not be stocks that Warren buys ( but you can bet it will be a sweet deal , at least mid-term )

 

[greggles]

DJIA looking like a double top.

The Trump post-election glow and optimism feels like it's evaporating. Nothing has really changed except maybe the tariffs to come. Trump has almost been exclusively focusing on cultural and immigration issues rather than the economy and this feel like a distraction. There's not a lot of meat on the bones but to be fair it is only early days.

The headwinds the US economy faces are bigger than Trump, they are structural. Trump is a good salesman and effective manager but I am skeptical that there is anything ahead other than superficial policy changes.

 

[Knobby22]

Sold out of nearly everything today and put my Australian Super Holdings into capital stable.

Gone really bearish.
I am usually the bull, but I turned bearish back when Covid happened and did well and I reckon we are in for a big correction though it may take to April till materialise.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

.

If you try and sell your shares on a day like today you will get trampled on because everyone is rushing the exits at the same time, no floor with stock prices.

it's only 2 percent down.

 

[Knobby22]

Trump has pulled back from the tariffs. I did hear there were some very unhappy Republicans.

I think next time the tariffs will be smaller and more targeted but who knows?

 

[divs4ever]

Trump has pulled back from the tariffs. I did hear there were some very unhappy Republicans.

I think next time the tariffs will be smaller and more targeted but who knows?

well sweeping tariffs normally have unfortunate consequences

BUT will Trump remove all personal income taxes ( at Federal level ) ?

i remember clearly what happened when Australia introduced GST , the overall tax complexity did NOT reduce in the time .

i guess we will have to watch and react if necessary

 

[frugal.rock]

The same old scarecrows are outstanding in their fields...

i guess we will have to watch and react if necessary

Div's has the quote of all time right here. Onya divs.