LVL - LV Living

[The Barbarian Investor]

Re: MXA / LVL SHAREHOLDERS PLEASE READ...

not for me kris.. maybe when they start to make some upward momentum

 

[canny]

Re: LVL

Have never looked at LVL - but this thread has sparked enough interest for me to now go off and research.
This is what it's all about - different points of view and ultimately make your own decisions.

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

markrmau,

Your chart spans 11 years, far too long to predict future trends, under a new company name, and new direction. Sure your chart you posted shows a downward trend over the past 5 years but you have used a chart that doesn't represent my investment. I have invested since Nov.2004, bought at a bargain price and have continued to buy more over time. LVL has only been running a few months now so it would be wise to use a current LVL chart to make any predictions on future trends.

My chart listed below gives a far more accurate picture of MXA/LVL over the past 6 months. In this time a share-split took place, a company name change and a completely new direction. Hence the reason for the spike and the downward trend. Over the past few weeks the share price been pretty stable and will take off after mid/late may following the Acquisition of Oxford Crest.

 

[TjamesX]

Re: LVL

In this time a share-split took place, a company name change and a completely new direction. Hence the reason for the spike and the downward trend. Over the past few weeks the share price been pretty stable and will take off after mid/late may following the Acquisition of Oxford Crest.

Did the management change as well? Looking at markrmau's chart they don't seem to have created too much value for the shareholder.

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: LVL

Over the past few weeks the share price been pretty stable and will take off after mid/late may following the Acquisition of Oxford Crest.

What makes you think that this acquisition will boost LVL share prices? Is it really that great of a move?, and will it be significant enough to sustain the share price at evelated levels after it gains? When do they expect profits? And How much profit?

Many unanswered questions at the moment. I would be waiting for some more information from management before making a move.

 

[ghotib]

Re: MXA / LVL SHAREHOLDERS PLEASE READ...

How old are the members of the board? The MD? Why do they think they know what "over 55s" want?

What makes property development such a fantastic opportunity when property is generally flat or in downturn?

Over 55s already live somewhere - those vast number of people don't all need housing at once. Does LVL have deep enough pockets to survive if the over 55s decide they don't want to move yet?

Of course, none of these questions matter if you're simply trading on share price movements. But if you're looking at this as a long-term earner, they matter a lot.

Ghoti (who turned 55 last month but did not suddenly develop the slightest interest in retirement living)

 

[el_ninj0]

Re: MXA / LVL SHAREHOLDERS PLEASE READ...

Ghoti (who turned 55 last month but did not suddenly develop the slightest interest in retirement living)

I dont think that 55 is anywhere near the ideal age for people to retire. The head crazy man of this country, seems to think 65 is retirment age these days.
But even then, i dont think poeple will want to live in retirement villages. My parents are around there mid 50's, and I doubt they will retire for atleast another 5 years. After that, I cant honestly see them in a retirement village, until they are atleast 90, if ever.

Then there is the other kind of older people aswell, they like the idea of a retirement village community, and there is quite a few of them. I'd say they have a close to 30:70 chance of doing well, in the next 10 years. After that is when the real step up in companies such as LVL will be.

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

The acquisition of Oxford Crest will be of a great benefit to LVL. As mentioned in the announcement. Oxford crest is a profitable established company, running more than 10 years.

Check Announcements on the 2nd March and follow the Forecast Results for L.V. Living and balance sheet report. It shows a revenue increase from year to year.

The only downfall I see is the issue of shares from...

115,621,540 million
to
275,621,540 million

and then deduct

81,000,000 million in Escrow

Leaving a total class issue of 194,621,540 million

But... here are the projected Profits

EBIT 2006 4.6 million
2007 10.3 million
2008 16.7 million
2009 19.0 million

It all looks good and set for May!

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

Retirement village demand to jump

Thursday , 24 August 2000

The ageing of the "baby boomers" will produce a big increase in demand for independent living in retirement villages, according to University of Queensland researchers.

"The aggregate level of demand for retirement village units by the year 2021 is likely to require the construction of an additional 26,500 units on current take up rates by retirees voluntarily choosing to move into this form of housing," Professor Bob Stimson said.

"If there was to be a 3 per cent annual increase in the demand for this type of housing then an additional 73,000 units will need to be constructed by the industry."

Professor Stimson and Sharon McGovern from the School of Geography, Planning and Architecture at The University of Queensland will discuss their findings in a paper to the Retirement Village Association of Australia annual conference in Melbourne tomorrow, Friday.

The researchers say their modelling of future demand suggests that the growth in new construction will be greatest in New South Wales and that demand in Queensland will overtake Victoria within a decade.

The research shows that the proportion of retirees choosing to move to a retirement village increases from about 1.5 per cent for those aged 65 to 74 years to almost 8 per cent for those aged 85 to 94 years.

"Currently Queensland and Western Australia have a share of the nation's aged people living in a retirement village that is significantly above their share of Australia's aged population," said Professor Stimson and Ms McGovern.

"However, Victoria's and Tasmania's retirees tend to lag behind the other states in their propensity to move to a retirement village."

In 1996 about 57,000 people aged 55 years and over lived in independent accommodation in retirement villages across Australia.

Most of the people moving to retirement villages relocate over only short distances, over half of them moving less than 30 km within the same region where they have been living.

Research shows that key factors in people choosing a retirement village are lifestyle related, with security being important. A big catalyst can be the loss of a partner and deteriorating health.

Stimson and McGovern say the retirement village industry faces big challenges as the baby boomers retire and age. "They will seek units with larger rooms, access to swimming pools and gymnasiums, energy efficient housing design, home offices, wiring for the internet and multi-media entertainment systems, and enough space for guests, friends and relatives to stay."

Two challenges facing the industry are how to incorporate more mixed tenure arrangements into village developments, and how to cater for a wider range of asset and income categories among retirees.

According to the researchers, the retirement village industry needs to do more to incorporate housing choices affordable to the ?asset and income poor' who are eligible for housing assistance.

"This will require governments to be prepared to offer incentives for the industry to respond appropriately to fill the increasing gap being left in the provision of affordable retirement housing for the poor retired as public housing programs have less access to capital funds," Professor Stimson said.

"To meet what will be a substantial increase in the numbers of poor households among the retirees, governments will have to look more and more to private industry to provide access to affordable housing for the elderly."


Source : University of Queensland,
http://www.uq.edu.au/news/index.phtml?article=1949

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

Aged care industry must grow by up to 27% in 6 years to meet ageing population demand
15/03/2005

The aged care and retirement village industry must start making serious inroads in development and growth if it is to meet the ever increasing demand of the ageing population, according to research by KPMG’s Corporate Finance practice.

Over recent years the provision of services to the aged population, in particular the supply of aged care beds, has come under substantial pressure said KPMG’s Associate Director, Adrian Arundell.

“The rapidly ageing population has resulted in a significant decline in the number of places relative to the 70+ age group – declining from 91 places per 1,000 people aged 70+ in 1996 to 83 places in 2004.

“Similar pressure is being felt by the retirement village industry (independent living units).

“The consequence of this trend continuing includes increased waiting times as well as potentially higher costs for residents entering aged care,” said Mr Arundell.

The Federal Government’s allocation of an additional 8,600 places on 5 March 2005 is likely to ease pressure on beds in the short term, assuming that all such allocations can immediately be transferred into active places (increasing the ratio to 88 places per 1,000 people aged 70+). Notwithstanding this, additional structural changes are required to ease the medium and longer term pressures confronting the industry.

To simply maintain the status quo – the same level of aged care beds and retirement village units in relation to population - the industry needs to grow by at least 18 percent by 2011. However, a 1 percent increase in demand means the industry suddenly needs to grow by 27 percent, said Mr Adrian Arundell.

“As the population continues to age there will be an unprecedented demand for these types of services. We estimate that by 2011, assuming resident take up does not change, there will need to be at least 185,000 aged care beds (an increase of 29,000 over current levels) and nearly 70,000 retirement village units (an increase of 11,000 units over current levels). This represents total growth of approximately 18 percent over this period,” said Mr Arundell.

“A more startling statistic arises, if it is assumed that resident take up increases. A realistic assumption that there is a 1 percent per annum increase in demand means that by 2011 there will need to be an additional 42,000 aged care beds and 16,000 retirement village units. This represents total growth of approximately 27 percent over this period.”

Mr Arundell believes that in order for the aged care industry to meet these demands, there is a need for greater involvement by private investment, a further boost in government incentives and a simplification of the regulation regime.

“At the present time the industry is fragmented and made up of a few large scale operators and numerous small players, which means that most providers are not able to take advantage of economies of scale in terms of upgrading facilities and investing in capital equipment. What is needed is an injection of private investment in the sector; however, the government should focus on alleviating the burden of entry and operation by reducing the amount of regulation in the sector. Clearly, however, any regulatory restructuring needs to be balanced against the need to ensure a high level of confidence is maintained in care services and the credentials of care providers.”

“In addition, the level of government funding to high care aged facilities needs to be urgently addressed. Without an increase in funding to these facilities, which provide 24 hour nursing care to patients, there simply will not be enough beds to cover the demand,” said Mr Arundell.

Recent private sector growth in the market has been strong as key operators and financial players identify the looming supply and demand issue and introduce innovative financing structures to facilitate investment. Of recent transactions in the industry the most notable have been Retirement Care Australia’s acquisition of the aged care assets of The Salvation Army, Southern Territory, and Craigcare’s acquisition of Australian Residential Care.

KPMG’s Corporate Finance practice was recently involved as joint financial adviser in the sale of the aged care assets of The Salvation Army, Southern Territory.

Snapshot of the aged care industry

• Since 1998, the market has grown at a cumulative annual growth rate of 4.41 percent and is forecast to grow at 3.53 percent beyond 2004.
• The industry exhibits low concentration. The ten largest providers comprise 16.7 percent of the Australian market.
• 78 percent of beds are in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.
• Approximately 80 percent of ‘for profit’ beds offer high level care.

Snapshot of the retirement village industry

• Currently there are approximately 1,960 retirement villages in Australia holding an estimated 80,000 residents (in 60,000 units).
• NSW has the highest number of villages with 700, while Victoria has 400 and South Australia has 330.
• The percentage of private retirement villages is estimated to be approximately 35 percent with not-for-profits at 65 percent.

Source: KPMG’s Corporate Finance practice and the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
Note: 2005f represents the impact of the recent Federal Government announcement (assuming all allocations immediately translate into bed places)

http://www.kpmg.com.au/Default.aspx?tabid=214&kpmgarticleitemid=1261&frompress=true

 

[ghotib]

Re: LVL

Bugger it I forgot this is the Kris Ramp or I wouldn't have bothered to read it.

Look Kris, some real basic facts of life:

1. A successful company needs a LOT more than just a good market. Plenty of businesses fail in good times

2. Providing aged care is not the same thing as providing residences for aged people.

3. Property development is a cyclical business and not even the amount of hot air you are blowing can prevent it from turning down.

Now please, go find a nice bit of tidal land or a bridge or something and try selling that to LVL. Should keep you both busy while I'm out getting fitted for my walking frame.

Ghoti

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

I am simply painting a picture....its up to you to join the dots, if you know what I mean.

Its not about ramping, I know this stock will fully recover and I will be a wealthy man very soon.

Just takes a little wisdom to follow market trends.

Ohhh and look whats happening....a massive boom in retirees!

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

New Website launched, looks pretty good.

You may also want to subcribe and be sent email alerts about LVLiving


http://www.lvliving.com.au/

 

[Fleeta]

Re: LVL

Krisbarry - LVL looks like a sinking ship to me.

Why would I invest in a company that:

- has never made a profit
- has an unstable board (2 resignations in 05)
- has made plenty of costly decisions in the past
- has to keep issuing shares to stay alive (never a good sign)
- had qualified financial statements at 31 December 04 - which tells me that management are a bunch of rogue accountants.

To top it all of, the share price doesn't even give a hint of it going north.

Maybe its time to swallow some pride and take a hit?

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

I aint selling this stock, I am looking at a long term investment with this one and will ride out this the downward trend. cannot last too much longer. All the activity starts in may.

 

[RichKid]

Re: LVL

I aint selling this stock, I am looking at a long term investment with this one and will ride out this the downward trend. cannot last too much longer. All the activity starts in may.

Is it wise to 'invest' in speccies? Especially when they can more than halve in value in a few hours? Wouldn't it be better to trade them? Also if you want exposure to aged care why not go for a company with a good track record, any bluechip healthcare co would do better than this one imo. At least they pay franked dividends.

Here's the chart, Fleeta got it right imo. I thought the sp graph would give a more accurate picture than mere ramping.

BTW, what does 'BVA' in your signature mean?

 

[RichKid]

Re: LVL

The Share Price has now stabalized at the 10ish cents mark, a good entry point.

It certainly was...if you were shorting it.

It's always very risky going against the trend.

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

BTW, what does 'BVA' in your signature mean?

Bachelor of Visual Arts

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

Charts looking very healthy now. Note those white candles! Looks like most of those who held MXA and lost money have sold out now and a new range of buyers have entered the market.

The share price dropped to as low as 6.6 cents last week, then the new website was release and it has jumped right back up again.

 

[krisbarry]

Re: LVL

"Keep an eye out on the website and announcements over the next 10 days"

http://www.lvliving.com.au/

I contacted Mr David Brown from LVL, yesterday, Re: the share price.

Hello Kris

Firstly, thank you for your email and being involved in LVL.

The share price late last year was driven by lots of volume and an extremely
low price and day traders. Most of this was total speculation.

In the reality of what we are doing, the business fundamentals will deliver
an earnings based share price that can be sustained over the medium to
longer term and be very rewarding to our shareholders.

The LVL strategy and business plan is sound and based on demand drivers in
the market that will deliver sustainable performance. Our differentiation in
village concepts has been received well by brokers and analysts. There are a
few fine points to sort out but we have a clear view of where our place in
the market is.

The moves we have made will deliver earnings to LVL in the short term - the
Yield Management business is under-rated in its capapilities.

To fast-track Oxford Crest would be a strategic error.

Keep an eye out on the website and announcements over the next 10 days.

Once the market understands our earnings capabilities we expect to see more
confidence in the share price.

Thank you again for supporting LVL.

David Brown