Long Term Stock Ideas

[Value Collector]

Unfortunately there's only so much you can do, depression is a bitch, and there's no magic bullet.

I feel for you Bud, my partner suffers with depression also, keeping motivation can be difficult.

 

[Ves]

I feel for you Bud, my partner suffers with depression also, keeping motivation can be difficult.

Thanks. Also sorry to hear about your partner. I know how hard it can sometimes be to see a loved one go through it.

 

[galumay]

Ves & Value Collector, kudos to both of you for discussing the issue of mental health - so often avoided in our culture.

I know what we went thru when my wife became critically ill in 2010, I really thought I was going to lose her at one stage, but after a month in Royal Melbourne Hospital and 2 more months recovering at home, she pulled thru and in fact has enjoyed much better health as a result of the surgical intervention.

My point though, is that as she had a physical condition, everyone gets it and provides support and understanding, the difference with mental health issues is that friends and family often practice avoidance, exacerbated by the fact that there is nothing visually wrong with the person suffering.

I think my redundancy and gap year gave me a different perspective too, a happy and stable family life is worth more than all the money in the world. I am thankful that we are in a healthy financial situation and have the opportunity to invest both directely and thru our SMSF, but I would never confuse financial success and wealth with the happiness that family and friends bring.

 

[So_Cynical]

Long Term Stock Ideas.

Bought a top 20 buy write fund this week, i figure that every mature portfolio needs something like this, yield, blue chips, indexing.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=31462&p

 

[luutzu]

Basically yeah,

The symptom of inflation that people are worried about most is loss of purchasing power, eg it takes more dollars to buy the things we want and need now than it did 20 years ago, and in 20 years it will take more dollars than it does now.

But it only takes more dollars to buy things, because the prices have gone up, and companies that have been able to continue earning the same profit margin on their new higher level of revenue, can pass along bigger dividends.

By owning part of the system that produces the goods and services your share of the income and capital pie will stay the same, if not grow. Even if you just own an asx index through all the ups and downs, you are going to be far better off than holding cash

eg, In 20 years I probably still want to drink a scotch mist at the Cove Bar at the Disneyland resort, and it will probably cost twice as much as it does now, But on average Disney's profit margin is about 20% on every dollar collected by their parks and resorts division, So if inflation doubles the price of my scotch mist (and every other thing at the park), then Disney's profit would double, and dividends would be raised and my scotch mist will still be funded by my dividends, and I won't see a reduction in my standard of living.

But,

If Luutzu tries to fund his retirement by holding cash, he won't see a sustained growth in income of enough to offset the rising prices, and instead of a scotch mist at the cove bar, he may have to settle for a paper cup of tap water, dreamworld lol.

As if I would ever buy water at a shop. Would buy a Coke though. Want some effort and unnatural flavour in my overpriced drinks.

And oi, I didn't recommend holding cash. All my savings are in the stock market - so I believe in the system bro

Yea, DreamWorld is pretty crappy. But the prices aren't cheap though - they seriously made my eyes watered and ruin the whole day. Never feel so ripped off... until I went to Disneyland.

7 Euro for two toffy apples - pretty sure it's for one, but that'd be outrageous.. .I'm sure there's more than 20% margin on them sugar-dipped apple. That and them 75Euro Elsa dolls should cover a day's work for them underpaid cast members at the parks.

Dam Disney... But do let me know when they crash will you. Will load them up for sure

 

[Ves]

Ves & Value Collector, kudos to both of you for discussing the issue of mental health - so often avoided in our culture.

Definitely agree with this. Some times it is hard to talk, but it does often help.

 

[skc]

7 Euro for two toffy apples - pretty sure it's for one, but that'd be outrageous.. .I'm sure there's more than 20% margin on them sugar-dipped apple. That and them 75Euro Elsa dolls should cover a day's work for them underpaid cast members at the parks.

Let it go. Let it go.

Or:

 

[Value Collector]

And oi, I didn't recommend holding cash. All my savings are in the stock market - so I believe in the system bro

Yea, DreamWorld is pretty crappy. s

Lol, I wasn't trying to imply that was your strategy, I was just using your name as a random example, because I know you like it when I can work Disney into the conversation.

And hey Dream world isn't so bad, haha.

_________

20% is the net profit of the parks division, compared to total revenue, not 20% mark up in products, offcourse the mark up is much higher than 20%.

Eg woollies probably operates with a 30% markup, but net profit only ends up being 3% of revenue, well Disney parks and resorts division averages a net profit of about 20% of revenue, so a $1 spent at a Disney park, hotel or cruise ship is a lot more profitable than one spent at woollies.

 

[luutzu]

Let it go. Let it go.

Or:

Ah, uni days.
11 weeks of doing nothing, 1 week of cramming... maybe that explains a lot of my career "options"

My then 3 year old son was into Letting it Go, way too much... He's since been into the Cycle of Life, literally doing a one-man Lion King show. Which is great fun to watch, and to hear sometimes. But it does get a bit dangerous taking him out and the dude would run to the top of whatever high points like Simba reclaiming Pride rocks.

 

[luutzu]

Lol, I wasn't trying to imply that was your strategy, I was just using your name as a random example, because I know you like it when I can work Disney into the conversation.

And hey Dream world isn't so bad, haha.

_________

20% is the net profit of the parks division, compared to total revenue, not 20% mark up in products, offcourse the mark up is much higher than 20%.

Eg woollies probably operates with a 30% markup, but net profit only ends up being 3% of revenue, well Disney parks and resorts division averages a net profit of about 20% of revenue, so a $1 spent at a Disney park, hotel or cruise ship is a lot more profitable than one spent at woollies.

So Disney mug me with their Marvel, mug my kids with Pixar and live shows, and one of its shareholders trolls me? Good to rant sometimes though... but can't complain too much since I guess it's not Disney's fault I'm cheap.

Dreamworld is slightly better than Wonderland. Still crappy though. Waited over 45mins for a 3 minutes Red Demon [superman?] ride. All the others were even more packed. Dam, I'm gonna one heck of a grumpy old man. haha

btw, the latest Alladin musical isn't too bad. Not the Lion King, but some funny moments for adults. Kids didn't like it much though.

 

[PharmBBs]

1. Invest in aged care and health care related to age care.
2. Watch as the dying baby boomers pour their metric f*ckton billions into your companies from trying to buy themselves extra time on earth as their bodies rot away with age.
3. ???
4. PROFIT!

As you can see I'm a big fan of demographics. Honestly I'm not sure what else to put my money on though. It's like the aged care thing is guaranteed to beat inflation because baby boomers comprise such a huge portion of the population. But for everything else; sure it (the market) will grow but that's cause GDP is correlated with population. Now if there was another surge in births ( a BabyBoom V2, if you will) then I could make money off that cause I can predict when that big surge of human beings are going to do typical things that humans do while growing up (eg ~10-16 years from that surge in births you know there's going to be a surge in tampon demand, tampon dividends anyone?). But everytime I look at a population pyramid, it's vertical from 40yo's down. No surge in births, just the wide flange of babyboomers about to retire. Oh well.

 

[systematic]

As always; no story - just running numbers.

Caveat: Completely ignoring price. I'm going for 'quality' here. I base that on your comment that the price does not have to be right. Therefore I wouldn't (necessarily) be investing in these, as of course just like yourself - the price has to be right (amongst other things)

Anyway...on quality alone:

Vita Group
Navitas
Cochlear
JB Hi-Fi
Blackmores


Saunders International
Nick Scali
Oz Forex
DWS
AMA Group

Just an update one year later, 'cos I remembered...

Top group did 18%, bottom group did 2% - all 10 as a group did 10% along with the market (and about 4.5% divs)

 

[systematic]

Going back to the OP, I realised that I don't have to look at quality (as I did in a previous comment) - the request is for prospects liked.

Okay, so if I had to pick some stocks that I had to hold for (say) 5 years...I'd stick to value / cheap stuff. I wouldn't worry too much about quality. I wouldn't look at momentum as I normally do. I'd be going for a basket of cheap stuff based purely on the mean reversion of value. This is usually the sort of list of stocks that normal people wouldn't want to own; too scary!

Top (bottom?) 25, I've got:

LCM Logicamms
MLD MACA
DOW Downer EDI
MND Monadelphous Group
EPW ERM Power
DCG Decmil Group
PRT Prime Media Group
LGD Legend Corporation
SGM Sims Metal Management
PTL Pental
KSC K & S Corporation
MCE Matrix Composites & Engineering
STS SRG
CSR CSR
CDA Codan
BYI Beyond International
UOS United Overseas Australia
CAB Cabcharge Australia
OZL OZ Minerals
RCR RCR Tomlinson
SPO Spotless Group Holdings
WPL Woodside Petroleum
GNG GR Engineering Services
DSH Dick Smith Holdings
FMG Fortescue Metals Group

A variety of sectors covered (industrials appearing most frequently), and a variety of market caps (from Woodside to ~$40m)


From the same group, but with an afterthought nod to quality and sticking to microcap territory, I'd be left with:

LCM Logicamms
LGD Legend Corporation
PTL Pental
MCE Matrix Composites & Engineering
STS SRG

It's only one year, not 5 years...but anyway.

The small group did 10.5% with 3.5% divvies. About the market.



The big group (25 stocks) of purely cheap stuff to, 'keep for 5 years' (if I had to)...had a very good year, returning 44.5% with 6% divs on top of that - total return 50%

18 winners, 7 losers - 1 stock delisted (good old DSH!)

The biggest win was Fortescue (FMG) doing 254%

The average winner did 77%, thanks to no less than 6 stocks that made at least 100%

The average loss of the 6 losers (excluding delisting) was 26%

Interestingly - as it was not considered - is that 22 out of 24 stocks paid a dividend (the 2 that didn't were both losers).

Any recording errors are obviously mine and I apologise if there are any. Creating portfolios is fun for me, recording them is not my favourite pass time.

 

[Value Hunter]

I am curious Craft, how old where you when you first started investing in the stock market? How old were you when you first starting investing in the stock market using your current approach?

 

[Cam019]

Same as systematic; no story - just running some numbers.

COH
REH
MFG
ABC
JBH

 

[Muschu]

Sometimes I just feel amusement at this market volatility which is definitely not a way of saying I understand what is going on.... I don't.

I'm over 70 and have a SMSF. Performance generally has been OK with dividends helping out. I'm not averse to selling losers but try not to do too much trading....

Major holds are
- Several LICs - mainly ARG
- TLS [wondering whether it's time to reduce]
- CBA and WBC
- and a range of smaller holds including CCP, IFL, JBH, MOC, PMV, RHC, S32, WES

But I am very open to fresh ideas like YMAX above.

Anyone else out there in my situation and willing to share what you hope to hold into the future?

 

[MrChow]

Not at current valuations but IVC, BKL, HSO

All defensive and market leaders.

Even in a downside scenario earnings and dividends should be able to remain flat.

The biggest risk is valuation contraction which means ideally buying @ PE <20.