IMO it was a pump and dump like MGO. Could be wrong though. My theory. Sell on announcements that report huge deposits that are ages from production. I'm also not fond of PNG but you make your decision in regards to location. Keep stocks that announce cash deals and JV's or large farm in deals where you can work out the value of the other investment into the stock you hold. An example of this is Best Decades investment into CFE..but we are waiting for confirmation on the deal... or EIG's 250 million farmin deal to AOE queensland tenements. If you really do like a stock and believe the fundamentals will be there for the future hold long..as I am doing with BMN currently. Good luck guys.
LNR - Lanthanein Resources
- Thread starter Sean K
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IMO it was a pump and dump like MGO. Could be wrong though. My theory. Sell on announcements that report huge deposits that are ages from production. I'm also not fond of PNG but you make your decision in regards to location. Keep stocks that announce cash deals and JV's or large farm in deals where you can work out the value of the other investment into the stock you hold. An example of this is Best Decades investment into CFE..but we are waiting for confirmation on the deal... or EIG's 250 million farmin deal to AOE queensland tenements. If you really do like a stock and believe the fundamentals will be there for the future hold long..as I am doing with BMN currently. Good luck guys.
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Let's stick to the facts which are:
FNT is still undervalued with a market cap now less than 0.25% of the value of the inferred resource.
Because so many shares were traded most of the holders have paid at or above the current price. This would tend to support the share price. And Kodu is NOT the only project, actually they have several projects which have the potential to be at least as good as Kodu, my personal favourite being Elo which has the potential to be several times the size of Kodu.
This is clearly not a pump and dump. The share went up 90% because the resource went up 88%. Of course there has been profit taking. Everyone wants to be free carried. That's not pump and dump. And the smart money has flown in because a 200MT deposit is far more economically viable than a 100MT deposit as previously reported. This company could be (IMO will be) worth not millions but billions, with a 'b'.
The value is still there and will continue to be there. Emotions are running high at the moment but the value is still there and will continue to be there.
But I'm just a cartoon cat. Do Your Own Research.
FNT is still undervalued with a market cap now less than 0.25% of the value of the inferred resource.
Because so many shares were traded most of the holders have paid at or above the current price. This would tend to support the share price. And Kodu is NOT the only project, actually they have several projects which have the potential to be at least as good as Kodu, my personal favourite being Elo which has the potential to be several times the size of Kodu.
This is clearly not a pump and dump. The share went up 90% because the resource went up 88%. Of course there has been profit taking. Everyone wants to be free carried. That's not pump and dump. And the smart money has flown in because a 200MT deposit is far more economically viable than a 100MT deposit as previously reported. This company could be (IMO will be) worth not millions but billions, with a 'b'.
The value is still there and will continue to be there. Emotions are running high at the moment but the value is still there and will continue to be there.
But I'm just a cartoon cat. Do Your Own Research.
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ahh...nice to see some commonsense Stimpy
Everyone has a different trading plan. Some have a small capital base and need to move funds from stock a to stock b, and then from stock b to stock c ...and so forth
Others can afford to find a fundamentally undervalued stock and throw a good few $$$ at it, and still carry on with life as normal, just to check on it now and again.
Personally, I think that this 'volatility' will not be seen as volatility a couple of years down the track...just tiny little ups and downs on a massive chart.
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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couldnt of put it better myself PG.
i personally sold some so im free holding due to a small capital base as you mentioned.
but the resaon i bought was due to the fundamentals, and absolutely nothing has changed, just what we thought has been confirmed. im happy to sit on my remaining heads for a good year or so, and i'll decide what to do with the oppies in another couple months.
if everything is as rumoured to be, eg Elo, Tasmania etc etc, could easily see $1 share price in the medium term imo. expecially if announcements are released regularly to keep the markets interest
i personally sold some so im free holding due to a small capital base as you mentioned.
but the resaon i bought was due to the fundamentals, and absolutely nothing has changed, just what we thought has been confirmed. im happy to sit on my remaining heads for a good year or so, and i'll decide what to do with the oppies in another couple months.
if everything is as rumoured to be, eg Elo, Tasmania etc etc, could easily see $1 share price in the medium term imo. expecially if announcements are released regularly to keep the markets interest
I'm wishing you guys the best but MGO is also clearly undervalued also. Im just showing what happened to their price action after the announcement in regards to their resource. It went up for a day or two..then it retraced. Take it how you like im just offering input. I'm admitting I havnt researched into FNT as I'm not interested..but from a quick look at things MGO seems similar to FNT
I do agree, not only because of how MGO behaves but because of how FNT has behaved after previous announcements. It is still highly speculative and the market is dubious of the directors - in my opinion - and their capacity to deliver on the potential. They didn't do themselves any favours last year with that announcement that was retracted. Only one way to prove the market wrong. Holding because of the fantastic potential.
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I certainly agree with your views on this. But I feel there may be some more there. FNT has broken out and will most likely consolidate a little before the next increase, I feel where at the consolidation stage now, 20 cents has held much better than i expected. I was looking for 16 cents today, may well go there and i'll look quite the fool
.This stock sent so many signals to sell, sell, sell.
However there is more on the horizon and I will watch closely for a re-entry point. I think it has potential but atm money better off somewhere else.
I never expected it to move so quickly after waiting, waiting, waiting so perhaps got a little overheated.
Will keep an eye on elo news for sure.
However there is more on the horizon and I will watch closely for a re-entry point. I think it has potential but atm money better off somewhere else.
I never expected it to move so quickly after waiting, waiting, waiting so perhaps got a little overheated.
Will keep an eye on elo news for sure.
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Hmmm, I think I agree now. The question now is how much will it consolidate?
Looking at a daily chart, it looks like a vast majority of shares where traded around 22 to 25 cents, 20 million shares approx. And 19 cents looked like resistance and now becoming support... Does this work on a daily chart? Is there logic to this?
Thoughts?
Attachments
Hi guys
This is my first post.
I've been enjoying the site for a couple of weeks and am really impressed with the quality of the commentary - very helpful. I am basically a technical analysis trader, but I like to know something about the fundamentals of a particular stock - it helps when the chart starts to turn to custard!
With regard to the retracement of FNT, have you looked at Fibonacci retracements of the move from 13.5 to 25.5? The commonly used 50% and 61.8% retracements would get you back to 19.5 and 18.0 respectively, nicely straddling your "gut feel" target of 18.5, Ken. In addition, the fall-off in volume during the pullback is consistent with profit taking, rather than all-out selling. Time will tell.
I am not a financial advisor, so do your own research.
This is my first post.
I've been enjoying the site for a couple of weeks and am really impressed with the quality of the commentary - very helpful. I am basically a technical analysis trader, but I like to know something about the fundamentals of a particular stock - it helps when the chart starts to turn to custard!
With regard to the retracement of FNT, have you looked at Fibonacci retracements of the move from 13.5 to 25.5? The commonly used 50% and 61.8% retracements would get you back to 19.5 and 18.0 respectively, nicely straddling your "gut feel" target of 18.5, Ken. In addition, the fall-off in volume during the pullback is consistent with profit taking, rather than all-out selling. Time will tell.
I am not a financial advisor, so do your own research.
With regards to the comments about this being a 'pump and dump' - I think some traders risk this becoming some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy. The reasoning they use for this being a pump and dump is based on the spike that occured back in July '06. They feel that that spike is very comparable to the current one, and that therefore the sp will meet a similar fate.
However, if you scratch beneath the surface of these simplistic chart formations, you'll actually see that it's apples and oranges.
Last time round we were dealing with a complete misinterpretation of a report, which resulted in the inevitable dissapointment and disillusion following the clarification that saw the sp come back down with a thud.
This time round, the jump in the sp has to do with the release of actual data, which was certainly not misinterpreted at all, but indeed very well understood. Traders made a judgement based on this data, and deemed it at the time to justify a sp of around $0.22. As the chances of the released data somehow being retracted are rather slim (or should I say non-existent), the difference between this event and the one in 07/06, from a fundamental point of view at least, becomes rather striking.
Let me just say that making future predictions based solely on past performance generally is a recipe for bad trading, unless these predictions are supplemented by additional relevant information.
So if you are really feeling to urge to sell right now, because you think the sp will simply drop back down to $0.13 (because that's what it did last time after all...); do it if you must, but I personally feel there's a reasonably large chance you'll end up getting burnt (or miss the boat at least..). Time will tell...
Just on the sidebar: ironically one of the reasons I recently bought into this company was that very report that was released in 07/06. Sure it deals with a 'hypothetical situation', but if you take the inferred resource at Kodu into account it actually is quite relevant and informative. Now of course it is very much more so, in the wake of the recent resource upgrade!
Also while I am at it, let me just add something that is along the lines of some of the recent posts here; for me the real proof in the pudding for FNT in the near term will be in their commitment to actually take concrete steps towards developing a mining operation (such as the proposed small open pit at Kodu), rather than simply float it as an idea. This will really help erase a lot of the 'pie-in-the-sky' sentiment that a sizeable proportion of traders feel towards FNT, and REALLY send this company on it's way towards becoming an excellent, well-established, and especially profitable(!!), gold/copper mining company. To that end I wait with baited breath, as I'm sure many fellow traders are as well.
However, if you scratch beneath the surface of these simplistic chart formations, you'll actually see that it's apples and oranges.
Last time round we were dealing with a complete misinterpretation of a report, which resulted in the inevitable dissapointment and disillusion following the clarification that saw the sp come back down with a thud.
This time round, the jump in the sp has to do with the release of actual data, which was certainly not misinterpreted at all, but indeed very well understood. Traders made a judgement based on this data, and deemed it at the time to justify a sp of around $0.22. As the chances of the released data somehow being retracted are rather slim (or should I say non-existent), the difference between this event and the one in 07/06, from a fundamental point of view at least, becomes rather striking.
Let me just say that making future predictions based solely on past performance generally is a recipe for bad trading, unless these predictions are supplemented by additional relevant information.
So if you are really feeling to urge to sell right now, because you think the sp will simply drop back down to $0.13 (because that's what it did last time after all...); do it if you must, but I personally feel there's a reasonably large chance you'll end up getting burnt (or miss the boat at least..). Time will tell...
Just on the sidebar: ironically one of the reasons I recently bought into this company was that very report that was released in 07/06. Sure it deals with a 'hypothetical situation', but if you take the inferred resource at Kodu into account it actually is quite relevant and informative. Now of course it is very much more so, in the wake of the recent resource upgrade!
Also while I am at it, let me just add something that is along the lines of some of the recent posts here; for me the real proof in the pudding for FNT in the near term will be in their commitment to actually take concrete steps towards developing a mining operation (such as the proposed small open pit at Kodu), rather than simply float it as an idea. This will really help erase a lot of the 'pie-in-the-sky' sentiment that a sizeable proportion of traders feel towards FNT, and REALLY send this company on it's way towards becoming an excellent, well-established, and especially profitable(!!), gold/copper mining company. To that end I wait with baited breath, as I'm sure many fellow traders are as well.
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have people read the presentation?
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...nt&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=W
There sure is a lot of gold in PNG..
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...nt&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=W
There sure is a lot of gold in PNG..
Lol self fulfilling prophecy. I work off peer comparisons and fundamentals not the charts. Try to offer some input and the defenses come out from those still holding. I simply gave an example of what has happened to other resource companies announcing HUGE resources in the same place being PNG. MGO is one...go read up on them..go see what happened when they made their announcement. They touched a high of 52.5 and have now settled in the mid 30's. I'm not saying FNT won't do well long term..I was mearly pointing out that if you followed MGO a retrace was going to be normal for FNT. If your happy holding long thats fine..but hey the retrace came and I wanted to let investors know that it could be a possibility. I felt a need to just let others know my views so they can make their own decisions on whether to sell or hold. Once again if your holding longterm its a different game..all the best with this one.
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Everyone probably has differrent ideas about pump and dump I suggested this was going to happen 2 weeks ago and my only reasoning is I follow HC posts (I despise them but...) theyr'e a useful indicator of sorts and when you see a stock is getting a lot of coverage there its a safe bet that theres going to be a big retracement
You don't need to rely on hotcopper though..just do some research to know the possibility of a fall back was very possible. Below is some peer comparisons on the resources of MGO and FNT.
Frontiers recently announced resource below.
88% TONNAGE INCREASE IN THE KODU INFERRED RESOURCE TO 203 MILLION TONNES GRADING 0.47% COPPER EQUIVALENT
MGO's recently announced resource below.
Updated resource totalling 660Mt at 0.48% Copper Equivalent (2.9Mt or 6.3 billion pounds of estimated recoverable copper metal equivalent), representing a 78% increase on the previously announced resource tonnes.
Includes an Indicated Resource of 163Mt at 0.49% Copper Equivalent, within the Gremi Zone, with the balance of 497 Mt at 0.48% Copper Equivalent as an Inferred Resource.
Ok thats your comparison in resources right there.
MGO - 126,880,719
MGOO - 48,382,574
FNT - 132,402,912
FNTO - 83,092,820
Current market caps
MGO fully diluted is market cap is 63 million
FNT fully diluted market cap is 40 million
Hopefully this gives you guys some tips for the future. FNT could fall back further IMO but they may have some other projects that could warrant current market cap. When looking at resource sizes MGO have a resource greater than three times the size of FNT's and at a slightly better copper equivalent grading. But they probably have some other projects on the cards..I'm not going to go in and fully research FNT. All the best to the longs.
Frontiers recently announced resource below.
88% TONNAGE INCREASE IN THE KODU INFERRED RESOURCE TO 203 MILLION TONNES GRADING 0.47% COPPER EQUIVALENT
MGO's recently announced resource below.
Updated resource totalling 660Mt at 0.48% Copper Equivalent (2.9Mt or 6.3 billion pounds of estimated recoverable copper metal equivalent), representing a 78% increase on the previously announced resource tonnes.
Includes an Indicated Resource of 163Mt at 0.49% Copper Equivalent, within the Gremi Zone, with the balance of 497 Mt at 0.48% Copper Equivalent as an Inferred Resource.
Ok thats your comparison in resources right there.
MGO - 126,880,719
MGOO - 48,382,574
FNT - 132,402,912
FNTO - 83,092,820
Current market caps
MGO fully diluted is market cap is 63 million
FNT fully diluted market cap is 40 million
Hopefully this gives you guys some tips for the future. FNT could fall back further IMO but they may have some other projects that could warrant current market cap. When looking at resource sizes MGO have a resource greater than three times the size of FNT's and at a slightly better copper equivalent grading. But they probably have some other projects on the cards..I'm not going to go in and fully research FNT. All the best to the longs.
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Are you in love with MGO chris?
FNT is not MGO, comparisons can be done but we need to look at FNT on its own merrits . Mr Market will value each company differently as you know. ATM, T/A is the way to go... for me. I reckon the ST traders still have an opp to make some $$$
PS. I hope no one relys on HC
Wow another investor who can't hack hearing some comparisons. I posted valid comparisons and no I'm not in love with MGO..I dont even hold. Peer comparisons is how I go about my investments. I shouldn't of even offered to show you the comparisons. I posted them so each investor can make up their own mind on whether to sell or hold. I'm not downramping or anything like that. I actually think both MGO and FNT have a lot of value to add. Just purely showing the possibilities on what could happen to the SP due to what happened to MGO. If you hold long and they did manage to bring either MGO's or FNT's operations to development it could be huge so good luck to you.
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I apologise if i offended.
I do belive comparisons offer a good indication of SP movement, and use them myself to gauge the fundamentals. Your comparisons are valid. However at this point in time... after a run, IMO peer comparisons provide a less accurate estimate compared to other forms of analysis. Perhaps price movement, depth and volume may offer abetter indication of market sentiment and the future SP. Thoughts?
OK Chris we should really be concentrating on FNT here, nothing else. Just FNT. Nothing else. FNT, FNT, FNT.
Haha just kidding mate, I think comparisons are worthwhile, and I for one found your comments very useful, cheers.
WC
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