LNR - Lanthanein Resources

[surfingman]

I believe the price will be recovered after 3:30.
my problem is I missed the chance to buy more at 14c

Good prediction there, 3:28 it just hit .16. Monday will be good but i look forward to the results from ELO, surface area upto 6x larger than surface area of Kodu will indeed bring some great upside.

 

[Ruprect]

yes, nice late surge. I think YT is right, some major players selling down.

They are doing that to the options big time, 500k lots at a time, or thereabouts. Whenever 3c gets broken, another lot comes in, even some selling at market pushing the price down to 2.7, even when the heads were hitting 16c. But the more they sell, the more we clean them out and thats better for monday and onwards.

 

[Ken]

Well I dont know about you guys but options tend to lag dont they? YMLO lagged for a while..... I guess its the risk factor??

The options were all free for the bell potter placement yeah?? So they are just offloading i guess for free cash....

There are like 45 million options i have read. so lot of turnover.

Question for the educated...

If FNT is 18 cents, how much should the options be priced at?

If FNT gets to 20 cents, how much should the options be trading at?

If FNT gets to 24 cents how much should the options be trading at?

Is there a formula that is a general rule to value an option?

Also if i decide to hold the option untill they expire, and the FNT share price is 20 cents exactly, would that make the options worthless. as effectively i have paid 3 cents for the options and i am paying 20 cents to expire the option making my outlay basically 23 cents per option/share. once the option gets over 23 cents i am then in the profit if i decide to expire the option??

Is the best way to do it to sell the option on market or expire??? in people experience....

Hypotheticals.... for if and when FNT does ever get over 20 cents.

 

[surfingman]

Well I dont know about you guys but options tend to lag dont they? YMLO lagged for a while..... I guess its the risk factor??

The options were all free for the bell potter placement yeah?? So they are just offloading i guess for free cash....

There are like 45 million options i have read. so lot of turnover.

Question for the educated...

If FNT is 18 cents, how much should the options be priced at?

If FNT gets to 20 cents, how much should the options be trading at?

If FNT gets to 24 cents how much should the options be trading at?

Is there a formula that is a general rule to value an option?

Also if i decide to hold the option untill they expire, and the FNT share price is 20 cents exactly, would that make the options worthless. as effectively i have paid 3 cents for the options and i am paying 20 cents to expire the option making my outlay basically 23 cents per option/share. once the option gets over 23 cents i am then in the profit if i decide to expire the option??

Is the best way to do it to sell the option on market or expire??? in people experience....

Hypotheticals.... for if and when FNT does ever get over 20 cents.

The only way i know of thats easy to understand the option has to be in the money, otherwise its a fairly long formula ill post it later tonight if no body else does before then i'm going to uni now, else maybe google for a options calculator???

 

[Ruprect]

well i dont know about you guys but options tend to lag dont they? YMLO lagged for a while..... i guess its the risk factor??

the options were all free for the bell potter placement yeah?? so they are just offloading i guess for free cash....

there are like 45 million options i have read. so lot of turnover.

Question for the educated...

If FNT is 18 cents, how much should the options be priced at?

if FNT gets to 20 cents, how much should the options be trading at?

if FNT gets to 24 cents how much should the options be trading at?

is there a formula that is a general rule to value an option.

also if i decide to hold the option untill they expire, and the FNT share price is 20 cents exactly, would that make the options worthless. as effectively i have paid 3 cents for the options and i am paying 20 cents to expire the option making my outlay basically 23 cents per option/share. once the option gets over 23 cents i am then in the profit if i decide to expire the option??

is the best way to do it to sell the option on market or expire??? in people experience....

hypotheticals.... for if and when FNT does ever get over 20 cents.

Ken, i actually think that after the placement, there are 83mil options and 132mil shares, so it is very liquid. And given the placement was at 13cents and one free option, its not a bad return to sell the options and hold the heads, or vice versa, or do both. I think some have certainly done both. Disappointing when the announcement is Monday, but no problems in cleaning them out for the longer term.

No general rule to pricing options that are out of the money, the general rule really applies to the premium that the market will determine. The premium being what one is prepared to pay for the option to purchase the share before a given date at a given price. Its kind of like betting that the share price will rise, in this case at current levels to over 22.9cents.

So if you buy the option for 2.9 cents, you can convert that option into a share for 20cents, meaning your purchase price for the share will be 22.9cents. If the shares trade over that amount, then your options are "in the money". So, if the share is just over 20 cents, you have to work out if its worth converting the options. If its over 22.9cents, then you are in profit.

At the current prices, the option is out of the money, by 4.5cents. Target - 20cents, current sp, 15.5c = 4.5cents

You could expect that an option that is in the money will follow the sp fairly closely, minus the conversion price, in this case 20cents. So if FNT hits 30cents before end of November, the option could reasonably be priced at 10cents, plus whatever premium the market determines is suitable for it. The premium is basicly factored in because of the leverage that applies to purchasing options at a cheaper price. But note, the premium decreases over time, as the expiry date gets closer. So come November 30, if FNT is 30c, the option theoretically should be at 10cents. A couple of months before that is might be at 11 or 12 cents, factoring in the premium.

So to answer what the options should trade at if the SP hits 24c, in theory, it would be 4 cents, plus whatever premium the market determines.

And in terms of conversion, that all depends if you have the money to convert to shares. Many people actually just buy and sell the options, never converting.

Hope this makes sense, if im wrong in any place please someone feel free to correct me.

 

[chicken8]

with regards to when the options get converted to full shares at november 30

would this affect the price of the heads at all?

 

[djones]

with regards to when the options get converted to full shares at november 30

would this affect the price of the heads at all?

Im pretty sure the options would be factored into the heads price already since as soon as the heads hit 20c the options can be converted whenever the owner wishes. There may be slight downward pressure though due to people converting to heads at the end of the term and selling their heads on the market.

 

[mick2006]

wow what a roller coaster ride today, looking very strong in the pre-open, starting slightly up, then a sell down to 13.5c, followed by another very strong high volume rally back to 16c befor finally settling at 15.5c back where it all started.

Very positive the strong bounce back from 13.5c, don't know what it means on a chart basis (maybe Kennas could u please have a look and see what you think).

As for the issue of the sell down from Bell Potters I got the feeling that they ran out of heads on thursday afternoon, as there was no point today that FNT shares look like they were being manipulated. As they were unable to control the strong afternoon rise back to 16c. Perhaps they turned there attention to FNTO.

The huge volume over the last two days 18.9 million or 14.32% of outstanding shares, gives hope that not only the Bell Potter Stake has been digested and also the majority of stale holders are also out. With the day traders now into FNT we will start to see a bit more price volatility both up and down.

The short term direction will be determined by the scale of the resource upgrade, if the market likes it FNT could run substantially. But with the amount of news over the coming weeks/months it will be traded according to the content of the news update.

So did any FNT holders out there either sell down/top up today?

What type of % upgrade are you expecting on monday?

 

[Spaghetti]

Mick

I for one will try to ride this out for 3 months, however I will monitor and change my mind if depth suggests I should.

I did not do any more buys today because I was busy on other stocks. I wish I had sold and rebought as I do fairly often, but this time I felt it worth waiting. Did not expect it to go back so low but then I did expect it to rebound. Never felt any panic at all.

I will feel nervous at market reaction to each announcement and also nervous with anticipation but that is part of the deal so I will go with the flow.

I am very happy with volume, very happy. People buying want to get a good price and the more that get a good price the better for the long term I feel.

 

[spottygoose]

wow what a roller coaster ride today, looking very strong in the pre-open, starting slightly up, then a sell down to 13.5c, followed by another very strong high volume rally back to 16c befor finally settling at 15.5c back where it all started.

Very positive the strong bounce back from 13.5c, don't know what it means on a chart basis (maybe Kennas could u please have a look and see what you think).

As for the issue of the sell down from Bell Potters I got the feeling that they ran out of heads on thursday afternoon, as there was no point today that FNT shares look like they were being manipulated. As they were unable to control the strong afternoon rise back to 16c. Perhaps they turned there attention to FNTO.

The huge volume over the last two days 18.9 million or 14.32% of outstanding shares, gives hope that not only the Bell Potter Stake has been digested and also the majority of stale holders are also out. With the day traders now into FNT we will start to see a bit more price volatility both up and down.

The short term direction will be determined by the scale of the resource upgrade, if the market likes it FNT could run substantially. But with the amount of news over the coming weeks/months it will be traded according to the content of the news update.

So did any FNT holders out there either sell down/top up today?

What type of % upgrade are you expecting on monday?

I am still holding and tried to top up today at .135 but my order didn't get picked up. I am hoping for a huge upgrade on Monday as PM stated the resource is expected to double. Was anyone else there today, to back me up on this?

 

[Pommiegranite]

wow what a roller coaster ride today, looking very strong in the pre-open, starting slightly up, then a sell down to 13.5c, followed by another very strong high volume rally back to 16c befor finally settling at 15.5c back where it all started.

Very positive the strong bounce back from 13.5c, don't know what it means on a chart basis (maybe Kennas could u please have a look and see what you think).

As for the issue of the sell down from Bell Potters I got the feeling that they ran out of heads on thursday afternoon, as there was no point today that FNT shares look like they were being manipulated. As they were unable to control the strong afternoon rise back to 16c. Perhaps they turned there attention to FNTO.

The huge volume over the last two days 18.9 million or 14.32% of outstanding shares, gives hope that not only the Bell Potter Stake has been digested and also the majority of stale holders are also out. With the day traders now into FNT we will start to see a bit more price volatility both up and down.

The short term direction will be determined by the scale of the resource upgrade, if the market likes it FNT could run substantially. But with the amount of news over the coming weeks/months it will be traded according to the content of the news update.

So did any FNT holders out there either sell down/top up today?

What type of % upgrade are you expecting on monday?

It sure was a funny day for FNT! I topped up a little on the dip down to 14. The bounce has given me even more confidence,

As for the resource upgrade, anything above a conservative 160MT would be great news...althought I wouldn't cry if it turn out to be 200MT.

Its virtually impossible to gauge though how much of an impact any news would have on Monday. So I don't wan't to even go there. Far too unpredicatable a stock.

I'm long on FNT so really I'm just happy that FNT seem to be getting more active week by week (kinda like my unborn child )

Does anyone else sense that this stock is stirring? I can't see 13c again, as the fundamentals of this company are slowly getting too well known.

Does anyone know anything more about the Tasmanian tin project? Not much is mentioned on the website, but I know Peter just returned from a trip out there.

I've just read some of the posts on HC.....hilarious how people were getting excited today !!!

 

[Pommiegranite]

Does anyone know anything more about the Tasmanian tin project? Not much is mentioned on the website, but I know Peter just returned from a trip out there.

Silly me...Informantion in the Tassie projects there on their website all along.

There are 3 projects which FNT has going in Tasmania:
SMRV
Gowrie Park
Lisle / Lone Star

I particularly like this quote on SMRV:

"The SMRV Project has good mineralisation potential and offers ‘company maker' sized targets warranting substantial exploration and drilling. Frontier plans to continue to evaluate the gold and base metal potential at the SMRV."

Should FNT start producing encouraging drill results for projects such as these simultaneously, you'd think the market might just take notice?

Please feel free to tell me to shut up and concentrate on Kodu!!

Just a reminder that FNT make/use their own drill rigs.

 

[mick2006]

you guys might think what I going to say is a bit crazy, but I believe the wording of the ASX release on Monday will have a big impact on the FNT shareprice. Almost as much as what the release actually contains.

I have being having a close look at the effect of market sensetive announcements on the shareprice of junior resource companies.

And have come to the conclusion that the wording of the release has a big impact on investors and their decision whether to investigate the company or not.

I have seen some companies run very hard just because they state things such as "high grade gold results" then if your investigate a little further the results are not really that good, but just because of the eye catching title it draws investors/day traders in.

What I am saying the title Peter McNeil comes up with for the resource upgrade will pay a big part on the shareprice on Monday.

For an example say we do get a doubling of the resource at Kodu to 200mt these could be some titles that he could come up with.


Resource Upgrade at Kodu
Mineralisation Statement for Kodu
Kodu Resource Statement
Massive Resource Increase at Kodu
Resource Doubles at Kodu
100% Resource Upgrade at Kodu
Significant Copper Upgrade for Kodu
Huge lift in Resources at Kodu
Major Resource Boost for Frontier at Kodu
Resource at Kodu doubles to 200 million Tonnes


Would be interested to hear thoughts on whether any of the above statements would be more likely to catch your attention and in turn investigate the company some more, or in the case of day traders cause a short term price frenzy.

The short term price could very well come down to market sentiment on the release rather than company fundamentals.

 

[alankew]

Mick whilst I agree with what you say about the leading statement it doesnt always transpire into a significant rise-MSN announced a significant upgrade by 83% and it did move the SP but not dramatically. http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070615/pdf/00729996.pdf
Just hope that the ann is good and it leads to a nice steady rise.

 

[rico01]

I hope it,s not the case but all this pre-announcement hype peter could be giving us all a disservice ,well what I mean is if we don,t get a doubling of the resource everybody could be dissapointed

 

[mick2006]

I guess the one positive for FNT is that it is still not well known in the investment community so any substantial increase will be well received as they are not expected the resource to double.

I don't think we will get a doubling of the resource on Monday, I think it will be somewhere in the 140-160 million tonnes range and then will be closer to the 200 mt mark in August when the Kodu deposit will be upgraded again.

The positive way the stock rebounded off the 13.5c mark, makes me more confident that the recent gains can be held onto this time.

With drilling at a combination of Kodu/Elo/Andewa/Bukuam with 3 company owned rigs 24/7, there will be plenty of times this stock will trade according to drill results, so it will be more firmly in investors sights.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I don't think we will get a doubling of the resource on Monday, I think it will be somewhere in the 140-160 million tonnes range and then will be closer to the 200 mt mark in August when the Kodu deposit will be upgraded again.

I agree with this Mick,



Although I am amazed at how much trading there has been in the last 2 weeks with the stock and the options, its clearly Bell Potter as there was 1/10th of this volume last time it ran up to 16c,

Its a shame really, I mean had Bell Potter not recieved this placement, the stock would have probably been at 25c due to a lack of supply, however the very strong demand is being met with equally strong supply,

Like I said Monday will be an important day,

 

[surfingman]

I guess the one positive for FNT is that it is still not well known in the investment community so any substantial increase will be well received as they are not expected the resource to double.

If Peter McNeil says we are hoping to double the resource and an announcement is due Monday in the one sentence, then it should double in my opinion. Upgrade the Kodu deposit in August and / or release some results for ELO.

Mick have you heard any more about the Inferred resource estimate for Tasmania due for release also shortly?

 

[mick2006]

YT has hit the nail on the head, it makes FNT's recent run all the more impressive it has had to soak up 20 million plus of new shares which have been dumped on the market in the space of less than 2 weeks, and not only did it absorb them it has moved forward.

With new holders for this chunk of stock, some long term some short term, the pool of available sellers will start to dry up as long as the news keeps flowing.

Just hope that members of ASF don't pin their hopes on a 200mt resource upgrade monday, as I highly doubt we will see it. But importantly we will only have to wait about 8 weeks to get there, so we just need to be patient.

In a way the two resource upgrades might be better for FNT in the long run as it will show investors that they are continuing to define larger and larger resource bases.

As for the tasmanian prospects they have been put on hold till 2008, FNT has realised the real value for the company is to concentrate on their highly prospective PNG tennements. With several sources keeping an eye on whats going on in PNG, it is in FNT's best interests to keep pumping out the drill results as it is the real shareprice driver at the moment.

That is why they are moving a third drill rig to PNG to really pump up the volume on the exploration effort (thanks to Rico for the info). With three rigs going at the same time we can expect several drill results every month. As the company has a history of reporting individual hole results rather than just releasing the complete set, which will help investors staying interested.

 

[Ken]

Conquest mining - CQT, had heap of shares on offer. A heap of Options on offer also. Volume = acitivity, something will be happening....

Volume is going at close to 10% of total shares on offer on days. I suppose you would take out McNEil's 8 million plus shares, and your looking a stock which is turning over a fair bit of its shares on issue.

Someone wants out, and someone wants in. Pretty simple.

The volume to me, says interest! I would like to see a becoming substancial holder announcement. That would really get things bubbling along.

Within the next few days, shareholders should make a decision, whether they are in for short term gain, or in for the long haul. 20% is there to be taken for most. But if your after the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, then 2 years down the track is the time line.


good luck, and may monday bring some joy to FNT