LNR - Lanthanein Resources

[mick2006]

as YT rightly pointed out that ELO is only 20km from KODU, so any future mining development will have two feed sources. The more likely location for the mining operation will be ELO and this will help smooth over any problem with the operation being too close to the Kokoda track.

As for mining costs its all speculation and as the mine wouldn't commence before 2011, there is alot of water to go under the bridge before then.

One thing people keep saying is that the resources that MGO,FNT are sitting on will never be developed. I can assure you that it may take many years but these deposits will eventually be mined whether they are still held by the current companies who knows.

The world is vast depleting reserves in the more favourable Economies such as Australia, Canada, South Africa etc etc. And with demand rising so fast it is just a matter of time before these deposits will be called on to meet future demand.

Take the "Hungry Dragon" China as an example they are already snapping up projects to meet their own demand, let alone everyone else on the planet.

Companies such as FNT,MGO should not be judged on how long it will take to get into production, the focus should be on how many million tonnes of resources they can prove up.

Because one day the big boys will come knocking and they will eventually be the ones who develop the projects.

 

[Pommiegranite]

as YT rightly pointed out that ELO is only 20km from KODU, so any future mining development will have two feed sources. The more likely location for the mining operation will be ELO and this will help smooth over any problem with the operation being too close to the Kokoda track.

As for mining costs its all speculation and as the mine wouldn't commence before 2011, there is alot of water to go under the bridge before then.

One thing people keep saying is that the resources that MGO,FNT are sitting on will never be developed. I can assure you that it may take many years but these deposits will eventually be mined whether they are still held by the current companies who knows.

The world is vast depleting reserves in the more favourable Economies such as Australia, Canada, South Africa etc etc. And with demand rising so fast it is just a matter of time before these deposits will be called on to meet future demand.

Take the "Hungry Dragon" China as an example they are already snapping up projects to meet their own demand, let alone everyone else on the planet.

Companies such as FNT,MGO should not be judged on how long it will take to get into production, the focus should be on how many million tonnes of resources they can prove up.

Because one day the big boys will come knocking and they will eventually be the ones who develop the projects.

Thanks Ruprect & Mick ,

I guess I still hold the romantic notion about holding a stock from an embyonic stage right through to production.

I also think long term as I prefer to cop out of having to make a decision as to when to bail out on a stock. I try not invest with a view to having the company which I've invested in being taken over.

Anyways, courtesy of 'Fullcup' on another forum, who attended the AMEC conference yesterday:

Nothing we don't know already :

"I went to the AMEC Investors Conference yesterday to hear Frontier. McNeil said the Kodu Inferred Resource will be released 18th June.

I must say I love the story. They drill 24/7 with their own drill rigs in highly prespective ground. McNeil is deidicated to the cause and has the experience in PNG to make it happen.

He said he is presenting at the Gold Coast Showcase Marriot Hotel Fri 15th June. Free to investors.

Go talk to the guy. It is good to hear his side of the Kokoda Track debate. They have hired a PR firm to deal with politician who also owns Kokoda trekking company! Frontier have 100% landowner support and mining contributes more to PNG than Aussie Aid does."

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Hey guys,

Re mining, sometime last year FNT released a desk top study that showed the NPV for 2 various operations, one assumed a 120Mt resource grading 0.5% Cu Equiv the other 200Mt@0.5% Cu Equiv,

Have a read it had cap ex, mining costs etc etc

Scoping study, using a $2.80 Copper price and a $640 Gold price (USD)

It showed a 120Mt deposit @ 0.5% Cu Equiv would have an NPV of $500m USD = $625m AUD = about $3 a share FNT

A 200Mt deposit @ 0.5% Cu Equiv had an NPV of $1 Billion USD = $1.25Billion AUD = $6 a share FNT


Current JORC is 108Mt@0.5% CuEquiv
Yes they already do have a JORC hence we're waiting on a JORC upgrade

New JORC is due early June, it will include drilling such as 2 x 360m@0.7% Cu Equiv, I hope new JORC is about 150Mt@0.5% Cu Equiv, or better yet 200Mt@0.5% Cu Equiv, I'd expect FNT to advise the mkt of the NPV value of the deposit based on previous scoping study[/QUOTE]

 

[Caliente]

I was at AMEC and attended the Frontier presentation as well. Not too bad - really nothing new that the market doesnt already know, but he did drive some of the facts home about FNT drilling lots of holes, having their own equipment, plenty of coverage in PNG, low NPV, and that come 18th they will release ann into market on resource. He's looking to double the tonnage.

My feel is FNT will get a green open come tuesday, but there will be a chance to pick it up cheaper before friday. I'm assuming you'd want to be holding on Friday in anticipation for the ann.

I don't hold, but might take a small position for the heck of it.

The other standout presentation at the conference was Azure Minerals (AZS). I thought Mincor was good, but they have a quite bloated MC already, Encounters pres. was so/so, Peak Resources was hopeless (fell asleep), Reed Resources not too bad.

 

[mick2006]

Hi Caliente,

thanks for the update from the conference, did you get the feeling that Peter was confident about the upcoming Resource Upgrade. And when you said he was hopeful of doubling the tonnage was this just for this upgrade or for the final resource statement from Kodu once the project was totally drilled out.

Well its good news he seems definate about June 18th gives us FNT holders another week to top up if required.

Should be interesting next 7 days, with the latest drill results from Kodu due early next week, hopefully followed by confirmation of the commencement of drilling at ELO, and then the big one on the 18th of June the Kodu Resource Upgrade.

 

[Pommiegranite]

Hi Caliente,

thanks for the update from the conference, did you get the feeling that Peter was confident about the upcoming Resource Upgrade. And when you said he was hopeful of doubling the tonnage was this just for this upgrade or for the final resource statement from Kodu once the project was totally drilled out.

Well its good news he seems definate about June 18th gives us FNT holders another week to top up if required.

Should be interesting next 7 days, with the latest drill results from Kodu due early next week, hopefully followed by confirmation of the commencement of drilling at ELO, and then the big one on the 18th of June the Kodu Resource Upgrade.

Hi Caliente,

thanks for the update from the conference, did you get the feeling that Peter was confident about the upcoming Resource Upgrade. And when you said he was hopeful of doubling the tonnage was this just for this upgrade or for the final resource statement from Kodu once the project was totally drilled out.

Well its good news he seems definate about June 18th gives us FNT holders another week to top up if required.

Should be interesting next 7 days, with the latest drill results from Kodu due early next week, hopefully followed by confirmation of the commencement of drilling at ELO, and then the big one on the 18th of June the Kodu Resource Upgrade.

As the likelihood of JORC resource upgrade seems to be out in the public domain. Are we really expecting a movement in SP if/once this comes out ?

I find it so hard to believe that the FNT SP hasn't moved thus far. Surely even the possiblity of manipulation of the SP through buy/sell order couldn't have prevented a SP increase if the demand was really there.

Could the reason be that it doesn't really matter what the resource upgrade is, so long as there is this Kokadu issue hanging like a bad smell, and this is THE key issue.

I get confused easily as I'm not a trader.

Anyways...I don't know if you've had a chance to look at the other companies that the McNeils have involvement with (Macmin and New Guinea Gold), but I thought I'd have a quick look.

These guys seems to have a proven track record at raising capital throught JVs and Equity partnerships. They also have experience of listing on TSX.

All in all, despite last July's debacle, this has instilled a great deal of confidence in their project management skills i.e they're not a bunch of geologists who can't get their sums right.

 

[Caliente]

thats my fear with this one. That despite all the progress, and lets be honest, clearly timetabled news - you would think that there would be a more significant movement.

Look - Peter was not going to sound "unconfident" on stage, so it's a pretty poor marker of whether the resource will come up trumps or not.

But he seems passionate, and very open to discuss any and all issues - this counts for a lot.

 

[kgee]

Theres a lot of reasons why the sharemarket may have discounted this stock so much
1. low ore grades and we don't know what the price of copper will be by production time
2. PNG production must be a risk ... labour shortages here in Australia are difficult, how difficult would it be to find skilled personnel in PNG and at what price?
3. Korkuda trail....although I don't believe this will be a problem its obvious it's detrimental to market sentiment
anymore probably?
I hold only on the theory that announcements cause market excitement and hopefully I can exit before daytraders do...I'm quite optimistic there will be a lot of activity on the 18th or 20th but will it be a case of pump and dump?

 

[Pat]

There seems to be some confusion regarding the name of the WW2 trail which may or may not be an issue for FNT.
Spelt Kokoda.

 

[kgee]

I'm all apologies Korkuda is pigeon english for kokoda, sorry for any translational misunderstanding

 

[Pommiegranite]

Theres a lot of reasons why the sharemarket may have discounted this stock so much
1. low ore grades and we don't know what the price of copper will be by production time
2. PNG production must be a risk ... labour shortages here in Australia are difficult, how difficult would it be to find skilled personnel in PNG and at what price?
3. Korkuda trail....although I don't believe this will be a problem its obvious it's detrimental to market sentiment
anymore probably?
I hold only on the theory that announcements cause market excitement and hopefully I can exit before daytraders do...I'm quite optimistic there will be a lot of activity on the 18th or 20th but will it be a case of pump and dump?

In answer to your questions:

1. Not sure that the grades are that low at all. If you refer to the desktop study carried out last year, FNT can be very profitable based on expected (as drilled ) ore grades

2. On that basis no project would get of the ground in PNG. I think the cost of labour is taken account of in the desktop study. Maybe somebody could put me right on how labour intensive a mine would be.

3. I think this is the main one, which is actually more of a storm in a teacup. This is why FNT is overdiscounted and is a bargain.

As for the pump and dump. If the numbers stack up, I don't think any amount of pump and dumping can stop the upward trend of such a heavily discounted stock.

For example a 100% rise maybe followed by only a 20% retracement. The long term trend will be up.

 

[mick2006]

Will be interesting to see if Bob McNeil can drum up any European Institutional support, with his presentations starting later this week. He is promoting New Guinea Gold but also speaking to investers about the merrits of FNT.

With northern hemisphere investors more sympathetic to miners based outside Australia it would be great if a few of the bigger boys jumped on board. FNT already has Fortis bank from the northern hemisphere.

Could be 2 of the more important weeks in the short life of their ownership of Kodu, if they can go close to doubling the resource when they release the upgrade on June 18 it may go a long way in the fight for greater market exposure and credability.

 

[INORE]

So how does price capping work? If i had a large qty of shares it would seem uneconomical to keep selling them at 13c in order to keep the price down....Would i be selling my shares at 13c and then rebuying some of them back at 13c along with someone elses shares selling at 13c, hence slowly increasing the the qty of shares i hold....??? This may explain the high volumes...

Is this all aimed at pshycing out the holders that their stock isnt about to go up no matter what the volume?

anyone care to comment on how they think/know it works would be appreciated...

 

[prawn_86]

im fairly new to the whole capping idea but heres how i think it works:

we'll use the FNT eample with it being capped at 13c.
putting a large sell order (500000) at that amount means that if others want to sell quickly or for whatever reason they will have to drop their price to 12.5

this way they can have a buy order at 12.5 and snap up anyones shares that drop to that price.

i guess they just hope that the number they buy is greater than the number that is sold at the higher price, although they are still making a slight profit everytime someone buys at 13c.

please correct me if im wrong

 

[INORE]

PNG news article which mentions FNT holding steady compared to some other ASX listed shares operating in PNG...

http://www.thenational.com.pg/061207/business1.htm

 

[rub92me]

im fairly new to the whole capping idea but heres how i think it works:

we'll use the FNT eample with it being capped at 13c.
putting a large sell order (500000) at that amount means that if others want to sell quickly or for whatever reason they will have to drop their price to 12.5

this way they can have a buy order at 12.5 and snap up anyones shares that drop to that price.

i guess they just hope that the number they buy is greater than the number that is sold at the higher price, although they are still making a slight profit everytime someone buys at 13c.

please correct me if im wrong

Yep, and they may even buy back bigger holdings over time at the same price as well, effectively buying back what they sold plus whatever else they can get a hold of. All fun and games...

 

[mick2006]

whoever the parties are that are capping/selling at 13c they have stopped the forward progress, but they haven't been able to pick up anything much below 13c.

They so-far have failed to drive the price down, which is very positive as it means that fresh buyers are coming into FNT willing to grab whatever they can at 13c.

These large sell orders will hopefully have run their course over the next week allowing the full upside effect from the resource upgrade.

 

[UPKA]

whoever the parties are that are capping/selling at 13c they have stopped the forward progress, but they haven't been able to pick up anything much below 13c.

They so-far have failed to drive the price down, which is very positive as it means that fresh buyers are coming into FNT willing to grab whatever they can at 13c.

These large sell orders will hopefully have run their course over the next week allowing the full upside effect from the resource upgrade.

I'd like to see the capper's face if they do release the ann early, and they didnt pull their sell orders out quickly enuf. unless of course they got someone inside to tip them of any early annoucements.

 

[motion]

Hey Looks like some news... can anyone see whats being updated as my news icon at commsec is not showing anything but I can see it's in pre open?

Cheers.....

 

[rico01]

Hey Looks like some news... can anyone see whats being updated as my news icon at commsec is not showing anything but I can see it's in pre open?

Cheers.....

IT,sjust a notice stating they started drilling yesterday in the ELO deposit.
Can,t believe it went into a trading holt for that