LNR - Lanthanein Resources

[cuttlefish]

I hope noone's letting you loose with real money stockmaster.

 

[stockmaster]

hahaha, fanx cuttlefish, can u elaborate the equation for me, i want to get out of the dream.

 

[cuttlefish]

I think you'll find that the total of those resource estimates at face value is about $5 billion AUD at current prices (3.6 bill for the copper, 1.4 bill for the gold).

You've also failed to take into account - (i) initial development costs, (ii) per lb production costs (the resource is pretty low grade, so the per lb production costs would probably be pretty high), (iii) time to development.

Also you're calculations are based on today's metal prices, it'd probably be sensible to use a price closer to the long term average.

And thats all assuming they really have the resource they claim to have.

btw I've been drinking beer since 3pm this afternoon so its quite possible I've stuffed up as badly as you with the numbers - I've put the maths below

--------------------------
340,000 tonne copper.
2204 lbs per tonne.
$US 3.60/lb
$AUD 1.33/$US

340,000 tonne * 2204 lb/tonne * 3.6 $US/lb * $1.33 $AUD/$US

= $3.587 billion AUD

51 tonnes gold
32151 troy oz/tonne
$US 660/oz
$AUD 1.33/$US

51 tonne * 32151 oz/tonne * 660 $US/oz * 1.33 $AUD/$US

= 1.439 billion AUD

Total = 5 billion

 

[stockmaster]

I think you'll find that the total of those resource estimates at face value is about $5 billion AUD at current prices (3.6 bill for the copper, 1.4 bill for the gold).

You've also failed to take into account - (i) initial development costs, (ii) per lb production costs (the resource is pretty low grade, so the per lb production costs would probably be pretty high), (iii) time to development.

Also you're calculations are based on today's metal prices, it'd probably be sensible to use a price closer to the long term average.

And thats all assuming they really have the resource they claim to have.

btw I've been drinking beer since 3pm this afternoon so its quite possible I've stuffed up as badly as you with the numbers - I've put the maths below

--------------------------
340,000 tonne copper.
2204 lbs per tonne.
$US 3.60/lb
$AUD 1.33/$US

340,000 tonne * 2204 lb/tonne * 3.6 $US/lb * $1.33 $AUD/$US

= $3.587 billion AUD

51 tonnes gold
32151 troy oz/tonne
$US 660/oz
$AUD 1.33/$US

51 tonne * 32151 oz/tonne * 660 $US/oz * 1.33 $AUD/$US

= 1.439 billion AUD

Total = 5 billion

Thanx for the correction.

1) Capital cost = $235 000 000

2) Average cost = $0.57/lb (about 3/5)

5 Billion x 2/5 = 2 Billion

2 $B - $235,000,000 = $1.765 Billion in comparison to the 8.5 Million market capital, there is still significant difference (208 fold).

Assume other addition cost(i.e interest cost, adm cos) of 1 Billion

0.765 Billion is still large distant away from 8.5 million. (90 fold). If anyone with different calculation please post it, please to hear!

 

[krisbarry]

And guess where the discovery is... right on the Koakoda trail, watch the greenies fight this one.

Caution

 

[stockmaster]

Any other calculation?

 

[stockmaster]

Is FNT overvalued or undervalued? Based on the statement made by YT, it seems FNT is overvalued?! However the calculation cuttlefish made seems to disapprove YT's theory, it seems the share price is no where near the actual value. Wat's ur opinion? Answer will be revealed sometime late today!

 

[cuttlefish]

However the calculation cuttlefish made seems to disapprove YT's theory, it seems the share price is no where near the actual value.

woah - I didn't make any comments on FTN's valuation - just showed you how to calculate the face value of the resources in-ground based on the hypothetical amounts you were using and current commodity prices.

I don't have an opinion on FTN's valuation and the stock doesn't interest me enough to spend any time doing a valuation on it either.

 

[stockmaster]

Suspension from quotation, pending on the company ann? Any expectation of the ann?

 

[stockmaster]

Suspension is lifted

 

[ALFguy]

Ouch! Down 37% on open, but seems to be clawing it's way out.....slowly.

I wonder how far this will go.....any thoughts?

 

[stockmaster]

Price is moving so bizarrely, looks in a downward trend, YT might be right, overvalued in someway, dunno where.

 

[stockmaster]

"Investor interest piqued by report of inferred 51 metric tons gold resource at
Kodu, which will help keep FNT at least in sights of day traders." (RCB)

Price doesn't show!

 

[stockmaster]

"Frontier Resources (FNT.AU) bounces, possibly a beneficiary
of sharp reversal in sentiment for junior miners/explorers, surging to 23 cents
before easing, last up 19% at 21.5 cents on lively trading of 3.8 million
shares. FNT more than tripled last Thursday to 52 cents on report of possible
nature/size of ore body at Kodu project, Papua New Guinea....
Investors likely focussing on report of inferred 51 metric tons gold resource at
Kodu project, PNG, where resource definition/expansion, pre-feasibility work
.."

The share has rebound 25% to 22c which sounds very significant, however compare to the 48c traded few days ago, it is no where near it. The report will determine its direction!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

And guess where the discovery is... right on the Koakoda trail, watch the greenies fight this one.

Caution

Nice call Stop_the_clock, very well researched!

Stop has shown us all why thorough research should be undertaken before jumping on a spec stock, this hit a high of what 50c and where's it at now?


PNG: Australia May Ask Govt To Intervene In Exploratory Mining
Thursday: August 10, 2006

(The Age)

Australia may ask Papua New Guinea to intervene in exploratory mining which some fear could threaten the heritage value of the iconic Kokoda Track reports The Age Online.

The 96km trail, in the remote highlands of Papua New Guinea (PNG), was the scene of one of Australia's most famous campaigns against the Japanese during World War II.

The Australian Labor Party wants the government to make sure the route is not damaged by exploration by Australian miner Frontier Resources which has acquired the rights to gold and copper deposits that take in the famous route.

Veterans Affairs Minister Bruce Billson "has been informed by Frontier Resources that the exploration drilling will be low impact, will take place one to five kilometres east of the Kokoda Track and that none of the activity will affect the track itself."

Despite these assurances, the Australian High Commission in Port Moresby is looking into the details of the exploration licence.

Billson's spokesman stressed that the issue of exploration and mining licences were the sovereign right of the PNG government.

 

[ALFguy]

The share has rebound 25% to 22c which sounds very significant, however compare to the 48c traded few days ago, it is no where near it. The report will determine its direction!

Up 30% on news that there'll be no impact on the Kokoda track and an increase in the infered resource. Additionally they have indicated that they've increased the indicated resource. That said, there's no figures in the release

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Things aren't looking good for this company!



PM vows to protect Kokoda from mining
Friday Sep 29 18:44 AEST
Prime Minister John Howard has vowed to do all he can to stop gold mining along the Kokoda Track and protect a site precious to Australia's history and national identity.

Howard has sent a high-level delegation to Papua New Guinea to inspect the site where Gold Coast-based company Frontier Resources plans to extract an estimated $1.3 billion worth of gold.

Frontier has warned against "foreign government intervention" in the proposal to mine gold and copper along the 96km track over the Owen Stanley ranges, where more than 600 Australian soldiers died during World War II.


RELATED LINKS
VIDEO: Kokoda gold
But Howard said Australia would not sit idly by while the future of the site was determined.




The prime minister has sent a high-level delegation, including the director of the Commonwealth War Graves Commission and his own senior foreign affairs adviser to PNG to inspect the proposed site.

"We obviously respect the laws of Papua New Guinea but the Kokoda Trail is of enormous historic and military significance to Australia and there has to be a way that fairness and justice can be done to all interests," Howard told Southern Cross Broadcasting in Melbourne.

"... we don't intend to have it run away from us without anything that can be done being done."

The PNG government insisted the track was not in danger, and said Canberra was overreacting to mining exploration in the area.

"At this stage there is exploration and if there is minerals found along the Kokoda Trail that does not mean we're going to dig it up. No way," PNG Mining Minister Sam Akoitai told the ABC.

"We will make sure that we preserve the Kokoda Trail," he said, adding it was just as important to his country as it was to Australia.

But Canberra's stance has angered Frontier's managing director Peter McNeil, who labelled the prime minister's call to stop mining going ahead as "quite frankly, appalling" and an attempt to deny the development rights of local landowners.

"It's an attempt to force our Australian attitude in relation to a particular battle on to private landowners or clans that actually own the Kokoda Trail and who are in desperate need of development," he told AAP.

Landowners saw the Kodu mineral deposit as their best chance of development for generations to come and said they got "diddly-squat" from tourism and trekking on the track, McNeil said.

"I do not believe that the diggers who served on the trail would support making the trail into a memorial to their efforts as opposed to allowing the people to attempt to better themselves using the natural resources they are blessed enough to have."

Frontier's exploration work had not affected the track so far and would not, McNeil said.

He said it would be two years before a decision on any mining was likely and it could be five years before the PNG government chose to grant a mining licence so construction could begin.

Labor leader Kim Beazley said he too was seriously concerned about the track's future, and warned Howard not to bungle the issue as had happened with the preservation of the Gallipoli foreshore in Turkey.

"We already know from our experience at Gallipoli what happens when John Howard takes his eye off the ball," Beazley said in Melbourne.

"He took his eye off the ball in Gallipoli and actually encouraged, and his ministers encouraged, a process where critical elements in the battlefield were in fact ruined by changes. We must not see that happen on the Kokoda Trail."

PNG's Chief Secretary to Government Joshua Kalinoe, who met with Howard's delegation, said only one or two locations within the exploration mining lease might encroach onto the track.

"While we appreciate the Australian prime minister's concern, it is still too early to be concerned about environmental damage to the track," he said in a statement.

The PNG government had very stringent compliance processes that would apply if a mining operation commenced in the area, he said.

"PNG laws take into consideration historical, cultural, hunting and burial grounds which are not to be tampered with in any way at all," he said.

 

[moses]

Things aren't looking good for this company!

Indeed. Reduced me to last in September's stock pick comp! Not to mention cost me a bundle when I exited yesterday It all could have gone the other way of course, but I jumped in knowing it was a gamble so no surprises really.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

More negative publicity



Aussies on Kokoda Track 'trespassing'
Monday Oct 2 09:21 AEST
Australians walking the Kokoda Track are "trespassing" on private land and Canberra must not interfere with local peoples' rights to allow mining, says a group of Kokoda landowners.

Their demands for their land rights to be respected are in a letter from leaders and elders of the Naoro and Eberi villages on the famed track.

Their lands are being explored for an estimated $1.7 billion worth of gold and copper mining potential by Australian company Frontier Resources.

The leaders said they fully supported the company's explorations and the possible development benefits mining could bring to their people who lacked proper health services, schools and good water supplies.




Australian Prime Minister John Howard has called for a stop to any mining around the 96km track across the Owen Stanley ranges where more than 600 Australian soldiers died during World War II.

He said the track was of enormous historic significance to Australia and he would do whatever he could to stop mining going ahead.

The PNG government said it was too early to be concerned about environmental damage to the track and PNG had strict compliance processes that would ensure historical and cultural sites were protected.

Frontier's managing director Peter McNeil said any mining would be five or more years away and it was not planned to impact on the track itself.

He said he wouldn't be surprised if landowners shut down the track in protest at Mr Howard's attempt to deny them their right to benefits from development such as jobs and mining royalties.

The Naoro and Eberi landowners, who sit on around 10 per cent of the track, wrote their strongly-worded letter with the help of a Frontier resources geologist and its message is aimed at Australia.

They said the sweat and pain that trekkers endured on the gruelling track were what villagers went through every day.

"If the company can help us to alleviate and lighten these hardships we are willing to support them and give them this land to explore and mine with no regrets.

"You are trying to deprive us of such development."

The leaders, including Jack Bani, Sam Dabave, Dick Kibidi, Baguwa Wati and Jack Seven, said the benefits mining would bring would far outweigh that of trekking which benefited track porters and guest houses but not the bulk of the people.

"The trekkers have abused us and called us donkeys when they saw our women carry bilums (string bags) on their heads.

"They want to keep the pristine beauty and preserve the environment and continue to keep us as game for the affluent.

"They do not realise they are trespassing upon private property.

"If we walked into one of these tourist's backyard he would pull a gun at us but that is what they are doing to us," they said.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Great ann but wayyyy to risky for me,

How can people punt a stock that has a deposit (good by world standards) in an area of such Australian importance that our PM and other polies will clearly never allow it to be developed,