LNR - Lanthanein Resources

[mick2006]

Looks like a bit of profit taking/stock rotation going on so far this morning. Interesting given that we are not far away from the next batch of drill results from Kodu.

One positive is that everytime it gets beat down to 13c fresh buyers are coming in to snap up a bargain. Hopefully forming a base at 13c and preparing for the next upward run.

Also due to the nature of the stock just $80000 would send it straight through 14c to 14.5c, so could quite easily go on a run once the profit taking is over.

 

[prawn_86]

i agree, i bought in at 13c on friday, but am not to worried. Also looking at the chart, a previous floor has been set at 11.5c so cant really see it moving below that even if it does go below the 13c.
personally i cant figure out why anyone would sell at this stage.

 

[Fool]

Looks like a bit of profit taking/stock rotation going on so far this morning. Interesting given that we are not far away from the next batch of drill results from Kodu.

One positive is that everytime it gets beat down to 13c fresh buyers are coming in to snap up a bargain. Hopefully forming a base at 13c and preparing for the next upward run.

Also due to the nature of the stock just $80000 would send it straight through 14c to 14.5c, so could quite easily go on a run once the profit taking is over.

Similar for FNTO, it will only take $30,000 would see it up around 4.1c again.

I reckon we could see those numbers by close today with the amount of volume that's going on.

For loss of time to do it myself, does anyone know of the company has realeased a specific time frame for the upgrade announcement ?

 

[MICKEY MOUSE]

HELLO ALL,
I am new; I have never bought a share in my life.

I’ve been reading up on the stock market, and various shares Ect for a few months, and have been reading this forum for a few weeks short while.

Can someone explain to me in simple terms why FNT is so great? I value the posts by YT and historically his predictions have brought value to the readers of this forum. Picking JMS @ 10c, EVE @ 10c, NWE @ 10c, HLX @10c, YML @ 16c, MTN @ 60c, BCN
@ 20c, MGO @ 20 cents. But coming from a first timer I thought I’d ask how these predictions and the prediction of FNT are formulated into sound investment opinions? Are they not just more informed gambling decisions?

So from a 1st time ‘punter’ why is there so much hype on this forum about a stock for a junior mining company, drilling in location raising ethical concerns, in a country with a fragile and historical corrupt government.

I’m trying to see where buying this stock is in no way straight gambling. Why is it theoretically likely that I can win on this if:
- The market almost certainly has all the information I have - plus more.
- The market almost certainly has more skill at interpreting the information I have – there are professionals out there that do this for a living.
- The market has almost certainly already accounted for all information in the share price.

From these pieces of information it would seem that there is little scope for ‘punters’ such as myself to beat the market. In theory aren’t the shares are already priced where they should be?

Why isn’t everyone jumping on it?

I know the Bell Potter buy up is a significant % of the stock. But is it that significant to Bell Potter?

So I called Bell Potter to try and get an understanding of how their funds work, and put into perspective exactly how meaningful buying up 25m shares and 25m options is for that company. I assumed from the hype on here that it meant great things. I spoke to an adviser at Bell Potter. He estimated they have 300,000 clients with managed fund, I then assumed it meant that 25m shares and 25m options were split up between them all making that buy merely a drop in the ocean (naïve as to how these companies work). Then I told him of my interest in FNT and he said they had done a corporate deal with FNT funding more exploration of the region, the I mentioned the bought stock, and he said that one agent amongst hundreds there had bought that stock and shared it around with a few other advisers at Bell Potter. When I asked of the number of clients the FNT stock would reach he said he had no idea. He said it could have been 2 clients for all he know. Just people who can afford to loose massive coin, but are willing to take the high risks, or it could have been lost of clients with small amounts in their riskier sectors of their funds, with no idea that they even own the stock. Over all it’s the opinion of one adviser at Bell Potter that FNT are worth something.

So after all this can someone explain to a beginner (not using numerical drilling statistics), how is buying FNT anything more than an educated Gamble?

Sorry if this is a bit negative, I;m very much learning about all this, I find it very interesting. Please shut me down if all of this complete nonsense. Thanks for your help.

 

[Spaghetti]

You could say the entire stock market is an educated gamble. The lower risk shares will give a lower return but they are all risky. No guarantee.

 

[dj_420]

ok to start PNG is not a bad country for mining,

the australian stock market usually "prefers" resources within this country. so can often discount stocks operating outside of these geographical bounds.

although the market has the same information as you the "market" is way to big to be knowledgable on all areas and often stocks go overlooked until the market "wakes up" and begins buying in in large numbers.

with bell potter on board it is shown a bit more stability to the price and gives us an institution putting funds into FNT

 

[spottygoose]

It is also less of a "gamble" when the potential loss is way smaller than the potential gain. Support has been shown to be very strong around this level even during market corrections. It is not a 50/50 gamble in this regard - the adage "you have nothing to lose but everything to gain" can somewhat be applied here. PS if it is research you are after just read YT's posts and decide for yourself - you won't get anything more concrete than that.

 

[Ken]

The options seem to be flat but lots of volume today, over 3 million options traded.

I saw a big buy order worth 50k go through at 2.9 cents.

Theres now a big sell order of 500,000 units sitting there at 3 cents.

Its early days, hopefully options finish strong for those who hold.

 

[dj_420]

im sure a lot of stale holders will be out by now, over last week or so prob what 15 - 20 million or more shares traded, get those stale hands out!

and for the people trying to gain 10% swings you will lose your position very soon IMO

 

[prawn_86]

mickey,
i too am relatively new and have been trading for under a year. I originally started out in blue chip stocks, just to get a handle on how things work, ratios, fundamentals, technical etc etc.
I dont think you can really look at a mining company without the numerical drill results, as that is what a lt of the valuations are based upon.
Got back to YT's posts and see the NPV of resources that FNT is currently sitting on. We (everyone here who holds) see this as a mismatch with regards to their current sp as usually companies sitting on this much resources tend to have a much higher market cap.
feel free to private msg me if you wanna discuss beginners tactics further without boring all the ppl in this thread with things that are not relevant to them.
this is just my opinion and i am far from an expert on the matter.
and no matter what shares you buy there is always risk, more of an educated guess than a gamble though

 

[surfingman]

Mickey Mouse,

In this world unfortunately there is no such guarantee as a sure thing, so in this sense it is an educated gamble.

Why don't everyone jump on it? Its early stages still for FNT, when a JORC resource estimate is confirmed as I am sure it will in time, many more will jump on it and the price will rise (all else equal ie material prices stay up).

The country of PNG relies on mining for the economy it accounts for something like 60% - 70% of its income, a corrupt Government you say? I would have to say why invest in many countries then, corruption is worldwide, some countries have better ways and means to cover there corruption cough cough Mr Bush....

Have a look at the drilling results they have got to date, have a look at some operating mines in PNG there are some large resources there so there should be more on this Island and current results prove reassuring of this.

The director Peter McNeil is also a co founding director of New Guinea Gold Corporation (Torronto Stock Exchange Listed .60 cents) one of their mine is scheduled to start this year. He obviously has some good connections and I consider a good sign for FNT.

There is such thing as an under priced stock, if have never traded before stick to less speculative stocks, its usually lower risk which is good until you learn more...

 

[doogie_goes_off]

FOOL - "For loss of time to do it myself, does anyone know of the company has realeased a specific time frame for the upgrade announcement ?"

FYI from the Frontier web site:

The intent is to release a revised Inferred Resource in early June, then again in early August 2007

Upgrade is not mentioned here, speculation from others on the forum with regard to good drilling results announced previously

 

[Ken]

20 million shares traded in the last 5 days.

Average shares traded are 3 million shares in a week.

Very interesting.

Reminds of IGR.

 

[mick2006]

Just have faith people once the drill results and resource upgrades roll in 13.5c will be a distant memory. Remember its when you beat the heard to a stock that you make serious dollars.

Every trading day there are multiple stocks that increase by a huge % following good news, if you are already in FNT just ride out the ups and downs and stay patient and our turn will come.

 

[Ken]

Mick you could say that about any stock.

I am not putting all my cash in FNT by no means.

But I agree, it is worth getting a piece of the action.

 

[Ken]

When FNT options went from 3 cents to 22 cents. 4.6 million options were traded.

FNT has gone from 3.3 cents to 3 cents with 2.5 million options being traded. How does that work?

 

[mick2006]

For those who are interested after having a discussion with the managing director Mr P.McNeil in regards to the timetable for the release of the Kodu resource upgrade and the latest drilling results, the following is a quote as part of his response

"we have more results coming from several holes over time, including the immediate future through to second last hole shipped from PNG by airfreight hopefully today."

Also talking about the upcoming drilling of the Elo prospect

"Hopefully one rig will move to Elo on Thursday this week and be drilling next Monday."

Peter wouldn't commit to a timeframe in regards to the resource upgrade but he was very upbeat and definate about the drill results, and by using the words immediate future I would guess an announcement will be out sometime in the next week or two.

I also must pay credit to Mr Peter McNeil for taking the time to discuss the companies future and also his willingness to discuss timeframes for drilling programs.

Certainly good to have a MD that is approachable and helpfull in answering questions, not like alot of smaller companies that couldn't be bothered

 

[mick2006]

this article is taken from earlier in the year, just thought it may be relevent giving the increase in interest in FNT. Certainly gives FNT some options once it releases its resource upgrade and feasibility study.

Not saying it will happen but who knows whats going on behind closed doors?, stranger things have happened. Also alot of infrastructure being built around Ramu Ramu certainly positive for FNT and MGO


China May Invest in Copper, Gold Projects in Papua New Guinea

By Tan Hwee Ann

(Bloomberg) -- China Metallurgical Group Corp., building the $800 million Ramu Ramu nickel mine in Papua New Guinea, wants to invest in copper and gold projects in the Pacific nation, the nation's mining minister said.

The Chinese government-owned construction company may hold talks with mining companies holding tenements in the Pacific nation, Sam Akoitai, Papua New Guinea's mining minister, said in an interview yesterday. It isn't seeking exploration permits.

China is building strategic reserves of commodities to secure supplies for its surging economy and has nominated copper as a top priority. The fastest-growing major economy is seeking investments in mines in Australia, Africa and Latin America.

``They are now building Ramu Ramu, and they want to move into gold and copper, especially copper,'' said Akoitai in Perth, Australia. ``Chinese companies have also shown great interest in looking at other investments potential.'' He didn't give details.

Wang Yongguang, vice president at China Metallurgical in charge of resources development, declined to comment from Beijing.

Harmony Gold Mining Co., the world's fifth-largest gold producer, last year said it may seek partners to help develop the Wafi copper and gold deposit in Papua New Guinea at a cost of as much as $1 billion. Chief Executive Officer Bernard Swanepoel said Asian companies are among nine interested in a partnership.

No Discussions

Projects under study in the Pacific nation include Marengo Mining Ltd.'s Yandera copper-molybdenum project and Frontier Resources Ltd.'s Kodu copper-gold deposit. Frontier's Managing Director Peter Mcneil and Marengo's Managing Director Les Emery, both said today they haven't held discussions with Chinese companies.

``We're doing our pre-feasibility study now, and we're looking for a right mix of partners,'' said Emery in Perth.

Xstrata Plc., the world's fourth-largest copper producer, last month said it will buy an 82 percent stake in the Frieda River copper and gold project in Papua New Guinea.

Mining companies are expected to spend about $80 million a year on exploration in Papua New Guinea, up from $10 million in 2002, Akoitai said. South Korean companies are among those who have submitted exploration applications for minerals, he said, declining to name them.

Akoitai will meet with executives from China Metallurgical next week in Port Moresby to discuss working conditions at the Ramu Ramu mine. The country's department of labor and industrial relations last month told the Chinese company to improve conditions by Feb. 19 or risk the having the mine shut down.

Akoitai was in Perth for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation mining ministers' conference this week.

China is building an emergency supply of crude oil and plans to expand that to metals and uranium. The country is the world's biggest consumer of copper, used in buildings, pipes and power generators.

 

[mick2006]

For those traders out there that like to trade stocks in the lead up to company announcements you should cast your eye over FNT. Last announcement form Kodu lead to a 35% increase in shareprice back in april.

After discussions with Peter McNeil the Managing Director of FNT, when I asked the timeframe for the next set of drilling results to be released to the market his reply was "we have more results coming from several holes over time, including the immediate future through to second last hole shipped from PNG by airfreight hopefully today."

Now using some basic calculations at the end of the last quarter they had completed 3520m of drilling that had been reported to the market and by the 21st May they have completed 9755m (as stated by company website) so that leaves 6235m still to be reported. If you go into more specific details some of the holes are 500m deep and the company has disclosed that all holes ended in mineralisation.

So if you add everything up when the results start rolling in you are going to have to very large 500m drill results grading around 0.7% copper eq. Just remember what happened when aim reported there hits in Africa the shareprice went from 21c to 36c in two days. Which gives you some idea at what impact these results could have for FNT.

The best way to make serious money in the market today is to beat the day traders into particular stocks, time after time it just takes one announcement to make a stock become a multibagger so if you don't mind taking a bit of a risk there certainly could be plenty of upside for FNT from here!!!

Also for the medium term investors FNT is just starting on a continious 2 year drilling campaign which will provide plenty of newsflow over the coming year and a half.

You got to love it when a company states "there will be continious assay results released during 07/08"

FNT as part of their drilling campaign next week start drilling at the ELO prospect and if you research into the company has the potential to be 2-3 times bigger than Kodu, to put that into perspective a desktop study puts the Kodu Project at an NPV of $US 516 million imagine adding ELO on top of this.

All in All just the beginning for FNT loads of drilling results due in the immediate future, the possibilty of interest by the Chinese (see bloomberg article I previously posted) and also JV's on some of their many targets.

With stong base support around 12c very little downside, with the possibility of strong gains following drilling results.

Would be interested to hear holders or potential holders thoughts on FNT?

 

[UPKA]

js to add few notes on the Chinese interests in PNG. Chinese has become closer to many pacific nations both diplomatically and economically, and many of these countries relys on foreign aid, so they certainly wouldnt mind a friendly hand shake with the Chinese.

so IF there is Chinese interest in the region's resources, or even specifically FNT's projects (thats a big IF), it would be PNG's best interest to give FNT the green light to go ahead with its drilling, so all that Kokoda track talk will not effect FNT's operation. after all money opens alot of doors!! especially with the PNG government. So there is definately a very very bright future for FNT ahead, like MGO, definately a long term hold and let patience take its place. once everything is in place, we'll be rewarded greatly!