LNK - Link Administration Holdings

Bought in early 20’s, was gonna sell but decided to keep. Now I’m kicking myself. When will I learn??

hasn't been so impressive so far , but i would prefer they didn't sell

UPDATE ON SCHEME – COURT DISMISSES PROCEEDINGS

Link Administration Holdings Limited (ASX: LNK) (Link Group) refers to the proposed acquisition of Link Group by Dye & Durham Corporation (Dye & Durham) by way of a scheme of arrangement (Scheme). There are three conditions precedent necessary to implement the Scheme that have not been satisfied (together, the Outstanding Conditions Precedent), being:
• the Woodford Matters condition;
• the UK Financial Conduct Authority condition; and
• the Luxembourg Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier condition. Under the Scheme Implementation Deed between Link Group and Dye & Durham, the time for satisfaction of the Outstanding Conditions Precedent has expired. There is no expectation that the Outstanding Conditions Precedent for the Transaction will be satisfied.
Accordingly, at the Second Court Hearing today, the Court declined to make orders approving the Scheme and dismissed the proceedings. As a result, Link Group is disappointed to inform shareholders that despite Link Group working diligently over an extended period and using its best efforts, the proposed Scheme with Dye & Durham involving Base Cash Consideration of $4.81 per Link Group share which Link Group shareholders approved in August will not be proceeding.
Link Group is still considering paying Link Group shareholders a fully franked Special Dividend of $0.08 per Link Group share. Link Group will update the market in respect of its decision on the Special Dividend in due course.
PEXA In-Specie Distribution As previously advised, Link Group intends to evaluate alternatives for the business, including an in specie distribution of a minimum of 80% of Link Group’s shareholding in PEXA (In-Specie Distribution), in order to maximise value for shareholders. Affirmation of FY23 guidance Link Group reaffirms the FY23 guidance provided in Link Group’s FY22 results released on 30 August 2022. Link Group’s FY23 revenue is currently projected to increase by a low single digit percentage, Operating EBITDA is currently projected to be around 8-10% higher than FY22 and Operating EBIT is currently projected to be around 10-12% higher than FY22.1 1 Link Group’s FY23 operating EBITDA and operating EBIT projections do not include earnings attributable to Link Group’s 42.8% equity interest in PEXA, which are accounted for below the operating EBIT line as profit or loss from equity accounted investments, net of tax. Projections are subject to a range of assumptions and variables, which may not prove to be correct, or which may be correct but may change over time, such that the projected figures may not ultimately be accurate. The comments in relation to Link Group’s financial update should be reviewed in this context.

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i hold LNK

AWESOME

i am a little disappointed with myself by being a little too greedy on the top-up price ( so missed out )

I'm in two minds here. This stock has been on my watchlist for a little while now, my thinking being that there may be a panic sell-off if the D&D deal fell through.

The UK penalties are a known, so they can be factored into any estimate of LNK's price. This stock has one great asset, and is sure to get another unsolicited bid somewhere down the track. This mind is telling me to watch the price action closely during the first hour of trading on Monday, and maybe Tuesday, too, after all those Fundies have received approval from compliance to reduce holdings.

The other mind is telling me that LNK already has had a number of offers, all of which have fallen through. There must be a good reason for this. This mind is telling me to keep the wallet firmly zipped.

KH

my money is in the wrong place for Monday morning , Tuesday is possible ( for me )

but this whole saga has raised some questions ( i remember similar speculation on the Coles-Myer empire in the prelude to WES coming in to swallow it all , and then spit out half the pieces much later )

Link is hard to gauge.

I think the business is fundamentally sound and PEXA has value, but the Woodford matters muddies the waters.

I think a bid by another suitor is quite likely and I'm tempted to add to my holding. However, having already been burnt by this one makes me hesitant.

If the footy results go as I'd like, I might feel bullish on Monday morning.

Link Administration Holdings Limited (ASX:LNK) –
Request for Trading Halt Pursuant to ASX Listing Rule 17.1,
Link Administration Holdings Limited (ASX:LNK) (the Company) requests that the securities of the Company be placed in an immediate trading halt. For the purposes of Listing Rule 17.1, the Company provides the following information:
(a) the Company requests the trading halt pending an announcement by the Company in response to recent media speculation;
(b) the Company requests that the trading halt remain in place until the earlier of the time the Company makes an announcement to the market and the commencement of normal trading on 5 October 2022;
(c) the Company is not aware of any reason why the trading halt should not be granted; and (d) the Company is not aware of any other information necessary to inform the market about the trading halt.

i hold LNK ( including buying a few extra this morning )

Ferret said:

Link is hard to gauge...

I think a bid by another suitor is quite likely .....

Click to expand...

clearly the Canadians want some part.

• First the the collapse of a broader $2.5 billion buyout of all of Link, which had been agreed between them and Dye & Durham but which fell over in the final weeks before a 30 September deadline.
• Then, last week, a $950 million buyout of Link’s Corporate Markets business, which runs share registries for listed companies
• A following proposal was made on 02 October for a $1.1 billion buyout of the Corporate Markets business and parts of the BCM business, excluding the parts of it that deal with non-performing loans.
• And on 05 October with a non-binding, indicative proposal to buy Link’s Corporate Markets business, and Link’s BCM business, for a total of $1.27 billion.

And of course, US private equity firm The Carlyle Group walked away after weeks of detailed due diligence late last year, after an initial offer of $5.38 a share.

By Alice Uribe
SYDNEY--Link Administration Holdings Ltd. is considering an offer worth 1.27 billion Australian dollars (US$830 million) from Dye & Durham Ltd. for its Corporate Markets business and its entire Banking and Credit Management unit.

Link said Dye & Durham had made three proposals recently to acquire some of its businesses, but it had decided not to engage with Dye & Durham on two of them.

"The Link Group board will consider Dye & Durham's third proposal, including obtaining advice from its financial, legal and tax advisers, and will provide Link Group shareholders with an update during the next week," said Link in a regulatory filing.

Link received the third indicative proposal from Dye & Durham on Oct. 5 to acquire the Corporate Markets business and all of the BCM business for A$1.27 billion.

"The third proposal provides that discussions should occur on an exclusive basis," said Link.

Three days earlier, Link received a proposal from Dye & Durham to acquire the Corporate Markets arm and its BCM unit excluding the business that deals with and holds non-performing loans for A$1.1 billion. Dye & Durham had earlier sought to acquire Link's Corporate Markets business for A$950 million.

Write to Alice Uribe at alice.uribe@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 04, 2022 18:22 ET (22:22 GMT)

i hold LNK

now personally i hope those bidders would go away and let LNK management get on with normal business

but time will tell , these buyers look determined

divs4ever said:

personally i hope those bidders would go away and let LNK management get on with normal business

Click to expand...

I imagine the LNK board must be thinking something similar.

The board must have wasted a lot of time responding to D&D bids that amount to nothing.

UPDATE ON DYE & DURHAM NON-BINDING INDICATIVE PROPOSAL
Link Administration Holdings Limited (ASX: LNK) (Link Group) refers to its announcement of 5 October 2022 regarding a confidential non-binding, conditional and indicative proposal from Dye & Durham (D&D) to acquire Link Group’s Corporate Markets business and all of the BCM business, for total cash consideration of A$1.27 billion on a cash and debt free basis and based on a normalised level of working capital (conditional non-binding proposal).
Link Group has engaged with D&D on a non-exclusive basis to see if the conditional non-binding proposal can be progressed to a transaction that will provide sufficient value and certainty, on appropriate terms, to Link Group.
No assurance is given that the proposal will lead to a transaction.
Link Group will continue to engage with applicable regulators including the Australian Tax Office in relation to a potential in-specie distribution to Link Group shareholders of a minimum of 80% of Link Group’s shareholding in PEXA.

The release of this announcement was authorised by the Link Group Board.


i hold LNK

and cleaning things up:

Link has sold 10% of its existing 42.77% shareholding in PEXA Group Limited (ASX: PXA), representing approximately 4.3% of the issued capital in PEXA. The PEXA Selldown will proceed at $13.50 per PEXA share.

Link Group will use the proceeds of the PEXA Selldown to repay borrowings. The repayment of borrowings is expected to reduce Link Group’s financing costs.

..... following the PEXA Selldown, it proposes to proceed with an in-specie distribution of the remainder of its PEXA shares to Link Group shareholders, subject to matters including Link Group shareholder approval. This shareholder approval is proposed to be sought in December 2022 with the Distribution proposed to occur in January 2023.

LNK is my second pick in the Full Year comp.

it should fall through the floor when it goes ex-entitlement on December 30th after divesting the PXA shareholding

the big question is ....

after all the distractions , will LNK just concentrate on business ?

i hold LNK

will wait and see if either LNK or PXA offers a reasonable price

divs4ever said:

LNK is my second pick in the Full Year comp.

it should fall through the floor when it goes ex-entitlement on December 30th after divesting the PXA shareholding

the big question is ....

after all the distractions , will LNK just concentrate on business ?

i hold LNK

will wait and see if either LNK or PXA offers a reasonable price

Click to expand...

You were spot on @divs4ever about it falling through the floor, down over 40% today. Let's see where it goes from here.

debtfree said:

You were spot on @divs4ever about it falling through the floor, down over 40% today. Let's see where it goes from here.

Click to expand...

i hold a reasonable amount of LNK , so forgive my pessimism

the dispersion of the PXA interest will leave it open for renewed take-over interest ( for better or worse )

given the market cap. drop , it would not surprise me if it tumbled down the indexes , obliging some funds to reduce or even exit

without putting pen to paper ( yet ) i am waiting to see if $1.50 holds up to June ( 2023 )

but possibly a better tip over 12 months than 1 month ( thinking someone might be interested now the PXA complication is removed from the deal )

but the drop wasn't hard to understand given LNK management activity over the last 18 months

Actually, LNK did pretty well today.

Closed at $3.29 yesterday. Down $1.315 today to $ 1.975.

PXA closed at $11.89 yesterday. 1 x PXA for every 7.52 LNK should have meant a drop of $1.58.

You could say LNK was actually up 20% (1.58/1.315) today. And PXA went up 0.5% as well!

I expect PXA might fall a bit over the next few weeks as LNK holders who don't want PXA sell out.

Oops. Actually up 15.5% (1.975/1.71).

Ferret said:

Actually, LNK did pretty well today.

Closed at $3.29 yesterday. Down $1.315 today to $ 1.975.

PXA closed at $11.89 yesterday. 1 x PXA for every 7.52 LNK should have meant a drop of $1.58.

You could say LNK was actually up 20% (1.58/1.315) today. And PXA went up 0.5% as well!

I expect PXA might fall a bit over the next few weeks as LNK holders who don't want PXA sell out.

Click to expand...

certain foreign residents will be compulsorily sold out , of their PXA entitlement the question is ... will that affect the PXA share price , i imagine they will be sold as a block to an institutional intermediary

and different question is the new less complicated LNK a ripe take-over target

i will watch ( LNK ) and see IF i add more later , i am thinking around $1.50 for the extras

PS i still haven't decided if to inject cash into the PXA holding coming my way

I agree that the divestment might boost the takeover chances for LNK.

I'm picking this for the Jan 2023 comp and also the full year 2023 comp.

Link trying to extricate itself from its disastrous UK business. That's $418M lost. No doubt the exec's that made this decision have pocketed handsomely and won't be held accountable.