LNG: Australia vs. Qatar? Pluto vs. Gorgan?

[antzlovinit]

So yesterdays AFR was talking about how Australia is not fit to be in the LNG game as Qatar has reserves that make Gordan look like an ant! oh have a look at todays paper, 'Australia may challenge Qatar for the top spot' for LNG. Yes we could but not when Qatar is in production phase.

Australia is ahead of production and we see Pluto(WPL) punchin in with first production to commence at the end of next year, PNG, gladstone and then Gordan(Chev,Exx,Shell). Oh and when Qatar comes in lets hope LNG prices dont fall as Gladstone and Curtin island will be upset.

30 years they waited and now they are there. Woodside you had your fun, Now its their turn. I wouldnt be surprised if there was a takeover offer from/either ExxonMobile, Chevron and Shell.

Does Pluto (WPL LNG plant) have a slight chance against Gordan? My research is No, unless there are substanstal reserves. BUT with Australia's LNG reserves do you think they stand a chance against 833 trillion cubic feet of reserves in Qatar?.... ok maybe Aus and PNG combined can take up the Top spot!

So where do I invest now? Should I enter in WPL, Santos and Oil Search or go into Shell, Exxon and Chev?

 

[prawn_86]

Re: LNG: Australia vs. Qatar? Pluto vs. Gordan?

I assume you mean 'Gorgon' not Gordan. If you are refferring to a bloke named Gordan then i guess he needs to eat a hell of a lot of beans

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: LNG: Australia vs. Qatar? Pluto vs. Gordan?

I assume you mean 'Gorgon' not Gordan. If you are refferring to a bloke named Gordan then i guess he needs to eat a hell of a lot of beans

I'm not aware of any Gordans in the energy game, but there's Gordon Dam and the associated power station in Tas - that plant being Australia's largest single source of renewable energy and the largest power station of any type in Tas.

As for Australia Vs Qatar, what Australia is doing is pursuing a policy known as "strength through exhaustion". That is, extract the relatively small reserves of gas as quickly as possible in order to achieve high production rates.

It's the same policy that saw the US, once the world's largest oil producer by far, end up an importer. The same policy that's seen Mexico's oil production soar then spectacularly collapse. Same as the UK did with the same results.

Anyone who believes that Australia has "100 years worth of gas" hasn't done the maths on what happens when you ramp production up to the max. My guess is we peak out in about 20 years, after which it's all downhill from there.

WA business is already being screwed by a shortage of reasonably priced gas in that state (hence the coal-fired power revival going on in WA). The same will happen in the eastern states and it's been known for a long time - I remember doing energy stuff circa 1997 on the basis that gas was viable for baseload power generation only until sometime around 2015, after which it would become too expensive. That point was made (not by me) publicly during the debate over the Basslink power cable - the cable was certainly a gamble financially but it was a safer bet than relying on gas staying cheap.

 

[antzlovinit]

Woops i meant Gorgan...just miss spelt it..So any ideas of what should I do. hmm maybe i should just invest in all.

So what if we get maxed out! the whole world is going to absorb everything in the next 300 years. And by that time everything has to be recycled, and our future gener have to deal with it, just like we are discussing climate change around the world. Im sure everyone remembers water would never run out in the 20th century. and blah blah blah....

Oil is almost gone and LNG is going to be the new player. 20 years you say Smurf. So what will you do Invest in the Gorgan project, the Pluto Project or the PNG project.

Anyone think woodside will be taken over in the next 10 years? I reckon oil search will merge in the nex 10 years and AOE will be taken over....

 

[Smurf1976]

So what if we get maxed out! the whole world is going to absorb everything in the next 300 years. And by that time everything has to be recycled, and our future gener have to deal with it, just like we are discussing climate change around the world. Im sure everyone remembers water would never run out in the 20th century. and blah blah blah....

Oil is almost gone and LNG is going to be the new player.

I'll put it this way. What happens to Australian industry, households and motorists when we've committed almost our entire gas reserves to export. We'll be stuck using ever more expensive oil for transport and relying on coal/nuclear for power - in short we're exporting our natural advantage in energy.

WA business is already being screwed by this as I said - a lot of those mineral processing plants wouldn't be built today for that reason and they'll be offshored in due course as a consequence of expensive energy. Boom times for the gas industry but as a nation there's a price to pay with lost opportunities in mineral processing, transport and so on that will likely cost us far more than we ever earn from gas exports.

ALREADY HAPPENING as I said, so this isn't speculation.

 

[orr]

The LNG tankers go out with there tanks full and come back empty. How long before it's economically viable for them to come back full or partially full of captured CO2. To be put into the depleted oil and gas fields that already have the sequestering infrastructure in place. What value then of the first very empty very big field. Maybe this might be the first time the winner in the race to the bottom may win something of value.
How long? Copenhagen may give a hint.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The US became the world’s No. 1 exporter of liquefied natural gas for the first time ever last month, as deliveries surged to energy-starved Europe.

Output from American facilities edged above Qatar in December after a jump in exports from the Sabine Pass and Freeport facilities, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Cheniere Energy said last month that a new production unit at its Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana produced its first cargo.

Gas production has surged by roughly 70 per cent from 2010 and the nation is expected to have the world’s largest export capacity by the end of 2022 once Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass terminal comes online.

 

[qldfrog]

Where is Greta?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Where is Greta?

Probably in an unheated basement somewhere, feeling virtuous.

 

[qldfrog]

Probably in an unheated basement somewhere, feeling virtuous.

I think LNG producers should send her a nice gift, they are rolling in it thanks to her action unless:
sacrilege, Greta is just a tool (unwittingly due to the absence of wits) of the oil business

 

[UMike]

Where is Greta?

Who is Greta?
Does she post on ASF?

 

[qldfrog]

Who is Greta?
Does she post on ASF?

No, just riding bike and sailing boat to the UN to manufacture shortages and increase oil consumption in behalf of oil lobbies

 

[Dona Ferentes]

in the context of implications of regime change







(((Tendar)))

@Tendar
Follow

I promised to post a series of why the fall of the Pro-Russian Assad regime is a monumental defeat for Moscow and in the last episode addressed the situation in Africa where Russia's plundering of resources is threatened by the losses of the Syrian bases. Today, comes the next episode: The Syrian Energy Corridor

For decades countries in the Middle East have been pursuing the objective to establish a natural gas pipeline to Europe, one of the most lucrative markets in the world. Until 2022, Russia was the dominating seller of natural gas and established a series of pipelines, such as Nordstream. The Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline connecting Azerbaijan to Europe while going through Turkey was in this region the only competitor and gained some market share ever since Russia launched the full scale war in Ukraine. But with 16 billion cubic meter per year, it remains rather small.
For comparison some more pipelines (in cubic meters per year / cbm)
- Nordstream 1: 55 billion cbm
- Nordstream 2: 55 billion cbm
- Yamal: 33 billion cbm
- Bratstvo: 32 billion cbm

With an annual demand of 350-450 billion cbm, Europe relies on far bigger supplies. One of the most interested one in building a natural gas pipeline to Europe in this region has been Qatar. This small Emirate sits on 24 trillion cubic meters in proven reserves, enough to supply Europe for almost century and probably long enough until full decarbonization. Currently, all Qatari natural gas exports are done via LNG, which as well known is energy intense and therefore not as efficient and lucrative as pipeline gas. LNG is good when it comes to competition, but when it comes to size and constant supply, pipeline gas is the king.

As mentioned, Qatar has been pursuing this project for a long time and followed two possible scenarios:
Variant 1: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Kuwait -> Iraq -> Turkey
Variant 2: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Syria -> Turkey
Both proposals had obstacles: Variant 1 leads through Iraq which at the time and even today is too unstable for a persistent supply. It also leads through Kurdish-Iraq which is an ongoing issue for Turkey.
Variant 2 seems to be the more viable one, but it had one obstacle: Syria.
Syria under Assad had been a staunch ally of Russia and naturally had no inclination to oppose its handlers in Moscow, even though it would have been lucrative to Syria and therefore Assad. But Moscow's influence was too strong and in the late 2000s the project was effectively shot down.
After this weekend this has changed. Assad is gone and Syria is under control by the rebels, who have good relations to the Qatar. It does not take much guessing to assume whether Qatar will renew its efforts. With good relations to Turkey and Syria only Saudi Arabia needs to be convinced. Though the relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has been under heavy strain in the last years, especially when it comes to Iran, the last years have seen some de-escalation. Diplomatic ties have been re-established in 2021 and the borders are open ever since without much disturbance.
There is also the Arab Gas Pipeline from Egypt going all the way to Syria, but hasn't been connected to Turkey, yet. The intention to do so was interrupted by the starting Syrian war in 2011. Now, this operation can be resumed.Syria is slowly but surely becoming an important energy hub.This development was actively opposed by Moscow, for obvious reasons. Qatar's vast reserves in natural gas threatened Russian almost monopoly and undermined its ambitions to use the energy as a weapon against inconvenient neighbors.
With both Nordstream pipelines destroyed and Assad ousted the worst case scenario arrived for Moscow. Even when Russia might somehow convince the new leadership in Damascus to keep the Russian bases, a prospect with low chances of success, Syria's rise to become an energy hub is certain.With Gazprom decaying and being virtually bankrupt as well as the prospect of another huge competitor emerging on the European market, Russia is reeling into the next economic catastrophe. A wise Russian leadership would instantly stop all military activities and open up negotiations.There are increasing voices that Putin will do this, because of the military situation, which in itself warrants this prognosis. The Russian losses remain to be staggeringly high and the Soviet army depots are depleting fast. But with the developments in Syria, another weight comes in.
Putin's decision to allow Assad refuge is a strategically stupid decision. Assad lost not only value, but has become a liability for Russia. Damascus will demand extradition. It does not make sense from a geopolitical point of view, but illogical decisions are a constant under Putin.
The only reason Assad has been allowed to be in Moscow is because of Putin, who remembers only too well when it was him being holed up in his KGB office in Dresden, abandoned and alone by Moscow. It is a personal decision which is based by a deluded person who harms Russia, once again.
Russia is reaping all the strategic failures which Putin has created. It is misstep after misstep, with no light at the end of the tunnel. In the contrary, neither politically not economically Russia can expect any turnaround of this death spiral and Putin is the helmsman.
It shows that Russia is running out of options and time. Ukraine is feeling a lot of pain, but the strategic defenses are holding. Even when we project that Russia might take Pokrovsk or even entire Donbas, it does not change the situation on the ground, not even a bit. We have seen in Syria what real military breakthroughs look like. Syrian rebels took the same amount of territory in one day what Russia couldn't take within an entire year. Russia is creeping on the ground and burning men and material on an astronomical scale. With Syria fully lost and Africa on the verge being lost or at least diminished, Russia is in the ropes. The wisest decision for the West would be to unleash whatever had been held back. It is an even more ideal time to do so. It is time to finish the job as we did 1989-1991

 

[qldfrog]

in the context of implications of regime change



View attachment 189266
(((Tendar)))
@Tendar
Follow

I promised to post a series of why the fall of the Pro-Russian Assad regime is a monumental defeat for Moscow and in the last episode addressed the situation in Africa where Russia's plundering of resources is threatened by the losses of the Syrian bases. Today, comes the next episode: The Syrian Energy Corridor

For decades countries in the Middle East have been pursuing the objective to establish a natural gas pipeline to Europe, one of the most lucrative markets in the world. Until 2022, Russia was the dominating seller of natural gas and established a series of pipelines, such as Nordstream. The Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline connecting Azerbaijan to Europe while going through Turkey was in this region the only competitor and gained some market share ever since Russia launched the full scale war in Ukraine. But with 16 billion cubic meter per year, it remains rather small.
For comparison some more pipelines (in cubic meters per year / cbm)
- Nordstream 1: 55 billion cbm
- Nordstream 2: 55 billion cbm
- Yamal: 33 billion cbm
- Bratstvo: 32 billion cbm

With an annual demand of 350-450 billion cbm, Europe relies on far bigger supplies. One of the most interested one in building a natural gas pipeline to Europe in this region has been Qatar. This small Emirate sits on 24 trillion cubic meters in proven reserves, enough to supply Europe for almost century and probably long enough until full decarbonization. Currently, all Qatari natural gas exports are done via LNG, which as well known is energy intense and therefore not as efficient and lucrative as pipeline gas. LNG is good when it comes to competition, but when it comes to size and constant supply, pipeline gas is the king.

As mentioned, Qatar has been pursuing this project for a long time and followed two possible scenarios:
Variant 1: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Kuwait -> Iraq -> Turkey
Variant 2: Qatar -> Saudi Arabia -> Syria -> Turkey
Both proposals had obstacles: Variant 1 leads through Iraq which at the time and even today is too unstable for a persistent supply. It also leads through Kurdish-Iraq which is an ongoing issue for Turkey.
Variant 2 seems to be the more viable one, but it had one obstacle: Syria.
Syria under Assad had been a staunch ally of Russia and naturally had no inclination to oppose its handlers in Moscow, even though it would have been lucrative to Syria and therefore Assad. But Moscow's influence was too strong and in the late 2000s the project was effectively shot down.
After this weekend this has changed. Assad is gone and Syria is under control by the rebels, who have good relations to the Qatar. It does not take much guessing to assume whether Qatar will renew its efforts. With good relations to Turkey and Syria only Saudi Arabia needs to be convinced. Though the relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia has been under heavy strain in the last years, especially when it comes to Iran, the last years have seen some de-escalation. Diplomatic ties have been re-established in 2021 and the borders are open ever since without much disturbance.
There is also the Arab Gas Pipeline from Egypt going all the way to Syria, but hasn't been connected to Turkey, yet. The intention to do so was interrupted by the starting Syrian war in 2011. Now, this operation can be resumed.Syria is slowly but surely becoming an important energy hub.This development was actively opposed by Moscow, for obvious reasons. Qatar's vast reserves in natural gas threatened Russian almost monopoly and undermined its ambitions to use the energy as a weapon against inconvenient neighbors.
With both Nordstream pipelines destroyed and Assad ousted the worst case scenario arrived for Moscow. Even when Russia might somehow convince the new leadership in Damascus to keep the Russian bases, a prospect with low chances of success, Syria's rise to become an energy hub is certain.With Gazprom decaying and being virtually bankrupt as well as the prospect of another huge competitor emerging on the European market, Russia is reeling into the next economic catastrophe. A wise Russian leadership would instantly stop all military activities and open up negotiations.There are increasing voices that Putin will do this, because of the military situation, which in itself warrants this prognosis. The Russian losses remain to be staggeringly high and the Soviet army depots are depleting fast. But with the developments in Syria, another weight comes in.
Putin's decision to allow Assad refuge is a strategically stupid decision. Assad lost not only value, but has become a liability for Russia. Damascus will demand extradition. It does not make sense from a geopolitical point of view, but illogical decisions are a constant under Putin.
The only reason Assad has been allowed to be in Moscow is because of Putin, who remembers only too well when it was him being holed up in his KGB office in Dresden, abandoned and alone by Moscow. It is a personal decision which is based by a deluded person who harms Russia, once again.
Russia is reaping all the strategic failures which Putin has created. It is misstep after misstep, with no light at the end of the tunnel. In the contrary, neither politically not economically Russia can expect any turnaround of this death spiral and Putin is the helmsman.
It shows that Russia is running out of options and time. Ukraine is feeling a lot of pain, but the strategic defenses are holding. Even when we project that Russia might take Pokrovsk or even entire Donbas, it does not change the situation on the ground, not even a bit. We have seen in Syria what real military breakthroughs look like. Syrian rebels took the same amount of territory in one day what Russia couldn't take within an entire year. Russia is creeping on the ground and burning men and material on an astronomical scale. With Syria fully lost and Africa on the verge being lost or at least diminished, Russia is in the ropes. The wisest decision for the West would be to unleash whatever had been held back. It is an even more ideal time to do so. It is time to finish the job as we did 1989-1991

Definitely one sided lol, as to "as we did 89 91"..i am still in awe as to that great role model ... laughing
And Syria as energy giant, lol,
A few truth there: Qatar was the original finance provider of the Islamists and al Qaeda in Syria, evil loonies which were then beaten by Assad with Russian help, and the Kurds.. basically on their own.
For those with short memories, these images of slave girls sold at the market a couple years ago, yeap, the guys are back with our help and are in control
Whatever gas reaches Syria will then arrive to Turkey! The new big boss.
Syria will get pennies, but Turkey the lot: € and power
The EU will switch from Russia to Turkey dependent.
Not sure it is not worse.
All that still assumes the EU is of any importance economically in 2 decades, i have my doubt.
But yes Qatar has a win, Qatar is also the Hamas protector but this is kept quiet lately..wonder why?

 

[qldfrog]

@Dona Ferentes , do you know who this clown Tendar is, the voice of the CIA?
I noted this

That was 16 months ago and this joker needs a reality check and a pacifier for his anti Russian toothache

 

[Dona Ferentes]

hey putin fanboy, how the 3 day smo going

 

[qldfrog]

hey putin fanboy, how the 3 day smo going

Oh please Dona, and i am paid by Putin
i wish
How have that expect forecast gone in the last year and a half?
Then do you need to use Soviet and Bolshevik next like all these US dinosaurs ?
Very seriously, that guy uses "We" aka as the US military/CIA? Who is he?
Voice of America?
I will always try to find the opposite view as i got enough of that US propaganda thru my Western Media/Social Media.
And I'm sorry but i feel more solidarity with a Kurd, Armenian, orthodox than any Muslim chiite or sunni, let alone an Al-Qaïda ISIS tool who by Muslim definition consider me as an animal to be slaughtered...

 

[Smurf1976]

Russia - China pipeline almost complete:



Capacity of the pipeline is reported to be 1450 PJ per annum. To put that into perspective, that's equal to a third of Australia's total LNG exports or more than China's LNG imports from Australia.