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LNC - Linc Energy

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Another medium term project announced.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-334.pdf

PB is certainly pushing in the US.

LNC Holder.
 
All very good with the Alaskan project - but it is years ahead and money out.

I just want to see the colour of the money on the Teresa sale. This is a very good time to have big deals settled and money in a very safe bank. I don't like what is happening in Greece. :eek:
 
Mickel said:
From this latest announcement and previous ones, I will attempt to extrapolate future earnings.

So, current production from 1 Aug 2011- 3500 bopd increasing to 10,000 bopd by Dec 2011, then increasing to 20,000 bopd min by Dec 2012, then increasing to 100,000 bopd by June 2016.

Aug 2011 3,500pd, Sept 3,500pd, Oct 5,000pd, Nov 7,500pd, Dec 10,000 pd Total 883500

with only 24 days production in Dec. Also only 24 days production in Jan & Dec 2012.

Jan 2012 10,000pd, Feb & Mar 12,000pd, Apr & May 14,000pd, Jun & Jul 16,000pd, Aug & Sep 18,000 pd

Oct&Nov19,000pd,Dec20,000pd Total 5,515,000

So total production from Aug 2011 to Dec 2012 = 6,398,500

At $100 per boo & costs @ $40 boo 6,398,500 X $60 = $383,910,000

With say an adjusted purchase price of say $240M & therefore borrowings of $180M with interest only at 5%pa until maturity in Dec 2012, then interest- 180M X 5%pa for 1yr 5 mths = $12.75M + repayt of 180 M = $192.75

So profit is $192.75M EBITA for 17mths oil production in USA on LNC capital of only $60M

I realise that I haven't accounted for the extra funding required for expansion as it would normally be drawn down progressivley. If the entire $60M ($300M- $240M) is drawn down then the interest would be less than $4M. So $192.75M less $64M is $128.75M EBITA

Using the same sale price and cost price for a barrel of oil, then I believe the following is achievable-

6 Mths to June 2013 - $60 gross profit X12000 booX 175 days = $126M

12Mths to June 2014 $60 gross profit X 14,000 boo X 350 days = $294M

12 Mths to June 2015 $60 gross profit X 18,000 boo X 350 days = $378M

12 mths to June 2016 $60 gross profit X 20,000 boo X 350 days = $420M

Total profit over 3.5 yrs $1,218M EBITA

I consider that this is a conservative estimate of potential earnings and not realised by the general investor. Perhaps RBS will assist to correct with regular Broker reports.

I welcome any discussion on this estimate.

LNC Holder
Click to expand...

Whilst you should be congratulated for attempting to do the calcs, the more I look at this Company the more opportunities I see for it. Many of these cannot be quantified atm. Here are a few that leap to mind. Use of UCG cavities for CC, arrangements with AFC Fuel Cells, more discoveries of oil, capital gains from buying an selling other coal reserves which no one else can use, Deals in China and India, the list just is so very long.
 
martin35 said:
Whilst you should be congratulated for attempting to do the calcs, the more I look at this Company the more opportunities I see for it. Many of these cannot be quantified atm. Here are a few that leap to mind. Use of UCG cavities for CC, arrangements with AFC Fuel Cells, more discoveries of oil, capital gains from buying an selling other coal reserves which no one else can use, Deals in China and India, the list just is so very long.
Click to expand...

Whilst I'm in total agreement with you m35, I feel on a knifes edge with the current global situation.
Sitting here watching the tail end of trading in Europe, and the opening of the North American market. It's not good, unless ones portfolio is primarly short. :banghead:
Confirmation of the next tenement sale, please PB......Fingers crossed.

LNC holder.
 
dogeatdog said:
Whilst I'm in total agreement with you m35, I feel on a knifes edge with the current global situation.
Sitting here watching the tail end of trading in Europe, and the opening of the North American market. It's not good, unless ones portfolio is primarly short. :banghead:
Confirmation of the next tenement sale, please PB......Fingers crossed.

LNC holder.
Click to expand...
thanx DOGEATDOG
What I find amazing is that anyone ever bought Greek bonds. Greece has widely been known as corrupt and badly run. Also nearly all of Europe has been mugged by socialist politicians wasting our money. As Margaret Thatcher once said "The trouble with socialism is that, quite soon, you run out of other peoples money!"
I personally feel Linc is a very safe share. It has huge coal reserves that very few other people can use, it is a leader in UCG, it is a leader in GTL technology, it is getting on well in Carbon capture, and it owns 12.5% of AFC whose fuel cell is highly likely to be demonstrated as a world beater to rival the steam turbine. It is also a 0ne bagger for me which gives a nice cushion in case of a world flight from shares. I see short-termism as more dangerous than long-termism. But I am a great believer in diversity and hold about 40 different shares in my portfolio.
 
martin35 said:
thanx DOGEATDOG
What I find amazing is that anyone ever bought Greek bonds. Greece has widely been known as corrupt and badly run. Also nearly all of Europe has been mugged by socialist politicians wasting our money. As Margaret Thatcher once said "The trouble with socialism is that, quite soon, you run out of other peoples money!"
I personally feel Linc is a very safe share. It has huge coal reserves that very few other people can use, it is a leader in UCG, it is a leader in GTL technology, it is getting on well in Carbon capture, and it owns 12.5% of AFC whose fuel cell is highly likely to be demonstrated as a world beater to rival the steam turbine. It is also a 0ne bagger for me which gives a nice cushion in case of a world flight from shares. I see short-termism as more dangerous than long-termism. But I am a great believer in diversity and hold about 40 different shares in my portfolio.
Click to expand...

Good old "Maggy". A controversial, but strong leader.

http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-335.pdf

Long term Linc will be a major winner, but as history has shown, when the Brown stuff hits the fan, the share price can easily dive like a stone. (IMHO)

I'm now down to eleven equity holdings, across the various markets, in fear of a major correction.

LNC holder
 
4% decline in the sp today :dunno:
Only good thing about that, is I managed to sell a short position placed on June the 7th, and made enough money to cover the cfd finance costs, and then some.
Will be kicking myself if a further decline happens tomorrow.
Any updated thoughts or info out there people?
 
Pretty ugly alround. I think market sentiment has a lot to do with the fall. There is a smell of fear around the place.

I think the short sellers would also be getting into the market at this stage.

On a practical sense LNC is not going to fall over with $300m + in the bank and (hopefully) some actual oil revenue coming within the next few months. It would be great though to tick off the Teresa coal sale and really get cashed up

In the longer term though I wouldn't be surprised if all stocks stagnate or fall almost regardless of actual achievements. The overall financial structures around the world are problematical and it is very hard to see a return to the (mindless ?) optimism we had pre GFC.

In my view I think companies will have to be very collaborative and very creative to stay attractive to the investing public. LNC has always kept a high public profile and I suspect it will need to keep this up and in fact expand these efforts in the face of general market difficulties.
 
basilio said:
Pretty ugly alround. I think market sentiment has a lot to do with the fall. There is a smell of fear around the place.

I think the short sellers would also be getting into the market at this stage.

On a practical sense LNC is not going to fall over with $300m + in the bank and (hopefully) some actual oil revenue coming within the next few months. It would be great though to tick off the Teresa coal sale and really get cashed up

In the longer term though I wouldn't be surprised if all stocks stagnate or fall almost regardless of actual achievements. The overall financial structures around the world are problematical and it is very hard to see a return to the (mindless ?) optimism we had pre GFC.

In my view I think companies will have to be very collaborative and very creative to stay attractive to the investing public. LNC has always kept a high public profile and I suspect it will need to keep this up and in fact expand these efforts in the face of general market difficulties.
Click to expand...

Clean Global Energy has put out an ASX announcement about a shake up of their Board. Looks like they are not doing too well. Queensland Government obviously giving them a hard time. Any opinions if this is good or bad for Linc. Living in UK it is hard to get a feel for what id going on there.:confused:
 
on the back of the latest acquisition in Alaska, RBS has upgraded its target price from $3.25 to $3.75 based on a higher earnings estimate. :)
 
snowking said:
on the back of the latest acquisition in Alaska, RBS has upgraded its target price from $3.25 to $3.75 based on a higher earnings estimate. :)
Click to expand...

Earnings estimates seem to have little effect during these troubled times it seems.
If those plonkers in Athens vote against the proposed austerity measures , a sp of $3.25 will seem a long way off when they default, and the markets crash. (IMHO)
Let's hope that scenario can be avoided.
Pleasant weekend people :)

LNC holder.
 
All looks good on paper. But the market is not buying it at the moment. Trouble is all we are see at the moment in the market is fear. And that has already driven almost all prices down including LNC. And remember that the Teresa sale seems fairly locked down. Panic comes later.

The hope we have is that when the dust settles a company with as diverse an energy resource base as LNC plus some outstanding technology capacities will be left standing. :2twocents
 
Good news on AFC Energy as it gets closer to commercialisation of its technology.

"Developing a technology of this magnitude capable of providing such power has undoubtedly come with its own problems and delays, but it appears that AFC Energy is certainly going to get there. The company has several high profile collaborative partners including Linc Energy, Centrica and AkzoNobel, one of the two Beta systems currently being prepared by AFC will be tested at AkzoNobel for which a Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP) is currently been conducted. Although AFC had originally underestimated the length of time this process can take to complete, the company has reported that good progress is being made and there are no onerous re-design requirements. The system which is been built at the company's premises at Dunsfold in Surrey has already incorporated the emerging improvements from the HAZOP study and the company has completed the first phase of the commssioning process..."

http://stockeye.weebly.com/2/post/2...first-stage-of-beta-system-commissioning.html
 
stacks said:
3.75 in 60 days? optimistic... but would be nice
Click to expand...

must have meant 2.75?

The Coal Sale is dragging on... I wonder if the recent world events have slowed the progress down.. Atleast Dr Bond has purchased $1 million worth of shares...

An Arkaringa drilling update should be on the horizon.
 
My view is that, no matter how bad the details of the Carbon Tax announcement on Sunday will be, at least the worst case scenario will be known.

Companies, particuliarly Coal Mining companies assessing a potential new coal mine (Teresa), will then know how the tax will affect the proposed project and be able to determine what they can profitably pay for the proposed mine.

So, hopefully within the next 2 weeks, we will have a sale of Teresa. Of course, one PB will have to agree with the highest bidder.

Fingers crossed.

LNC holder.
 
I think that LNC could do very, very well out of the carbon Tax scheme. It's strong suit is UCG technology which will dramatically reduce CO2 emissions. The ace would be combining UCG with the Hydrogen fuel cell to produce almost unlimited base load electricity from coal with almost no CO2 emissions.

The AFC fuel cell is very close to trial operations and fullscale productions. It seems to be a cheap, upscaleable product that could conceivably in a few years offer a clear alternative to coal fired power stations minus the CO2.

And LNC holds the rights to the AFC technology as well as having some of the most proven UCG processes that can deliver the gas. Game changer. IMO
 

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