LNC - Linc Energy

[So_Cynical]

Speaking of lighting up the coal, there is a bit being lit up tonight on sixty minutes.....at 7.30pm on 9. Might be worth a look.....wouldn't it be nice if Linc's plant was on film. I don't normally watch this show, but I might have to tonight...

Grace the story was about Aussie Shale oil and Canadian Oil sands, nothing to do
with LNC...while gooling the subject i did find a south African company that has
an industrial process the turns coal into oil....been doin it for years.

 

[mexican]

Sasol produce 37% of their total use of fuel from coal.



Different GTL process compared to Linc's.

 

[grace]

Grace the story was about Aussie Shale oil and Canadian Oil sands, nothing to do
with LNC...while gooling the subject i did find a south African company that has
an industrial process the turns coal into oil....been doin it for years.

Yep, got that wrong. They said that oil shale was Austalia's solution to running out of oil. Hope so, I've been sitting on GRV which holds one of Australia's largest deposits (MC $10million, with 11 billion barrels of oil...if they can get it out). Trial mining was to start this qtr, but haven't heard anything yet. I'm holding these, just in case my grandchildren (and that's a long way away) might benefit......Sorry, should be on GRV but I don't think it has a thread.

 

[grace]

BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP. Looks like they like the idea. Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.

Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10

Here is the link

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf

 

[mexican]

BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP. Looks like they like the idea. Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.

Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10

Here is the link

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf

Well Grace, I can't see us paying $65/barrel again!


As Bond said, " you get more bang for your buck" in regards to GTL!

 

[Mickel]

BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP. Looks like they like the idea. Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.

Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10

Here is the link

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf

Two points on these DCF valuations-

1. The barrel of oil price is in USD and is converted at 0.70 . This is more attractive than if it was, say 0.90 (eg $65 is $92.86 compared to $72.22)

2. The valuations take "a conservative $100m value" of the Emerald coal deposit in considering the CAPEX of $850m on a 70/30 debt/equity basis.

I'd like to see a DCF valuation based on oil at USD 90 pb converted at .80 (ie AUD 112.5) with the Emerald coal deposit valued variously at $100m, $200m, $300m, $400m, and $500m . I think these numbers are more appropriate in the current and medium term future.

Any comments ?

 

[Evangeline]

sp took quite a pounding on friday...any thoughts why?

grace.....would you mind having a crack at interpreting the lnc chart atm?....where would you say support lines are?

thanks

 

[grace]

sp took quite a pounding on friday...any thoughts why?

grace.....would you mind having a crack at interpreting the lnc chart atm?....where would you say support lines are?

thanks

Happy to have a go Evangeline. On Friday touched support at about $3.30 mark, and bounced off. If that doesn't hold, I see stronger support at $3.00 Of course, technical will go out the window if the pilot kicks off on 30/6/08 without a hitch! We should see new highs if all goes well.

Sorry, my virus software won't let me post a chart at the moment.

 

[Evangeline]

thanks heaps for that grace....i'm no chartist but have great respect for ta...in the absence of news that is.....fingers crossed for a firm date for the pilot plant test

was heartened to see the bounce off $3.30 myself...hopefully we'll be able to hold $3 even in the gloomy market conditions atm!

 

[LittleMak]

Latest BBY Research 19 may 2008

Recommendation: BUY
DCF Valuation - $6.44/sh
12 month share price target - $5.50/sh


In line with the revised oil price assumptions released today, we will be updating our financial model for Linc Energy (LNC). Our long term oil price assumption is now US$75/bbl
(prev US$65/bbl).

Not changing any other assumptions as per our previous note on LNC (12 June 2008), our DCF valuation for Chinchilla only increases to A$6.40/sh. We leave our price target at
A$5.50/sh until successful commissioning of the pilot plant in Chinchilla is announced.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-15.pdf


Enjoy the coming good times Shareholders!!!

LM

 

[awg]

has gone into trading halt.

I cashed in on Friday, trying to protect profits, probably a bad move.

will see what announcement brings

tony

 

[Dukey]

has gone into trading halt.

I cashed in on Friday, trying to protect profits, probably a bad move.

will see what announcement brings

tony

Mmm very interesting... I missed the big fall on friday - offline - but intrigueing why LNC would fall so suddenly at this stage. Possibly something to do with SXP t/o - maybe a discounted fund raising or something?

dunno - any ideas out there?

(hold sxpo)
-dukey

 

[Wigspotter]

Latest BBY Research 19 may 2008

Recommendation: BUY
DCF Valuation - $6.44/sh
12 month share price target - $5.50/sh


In line with the revised oil price assumptions released today, we will be updating our financial model for Linc Energy (LNC). Our long term oil price assumption is now US$75/bbl
(prev US$65/bbl).

Not changing any other assumptions as per our previous note on LNC (12 June 2008), our DCF valuation for Chinchilla only increases to A$6.40/sh. We leave our price target at
A$5.50/sh until successful commissioning of the pilot plant in Chinchilla is announced.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-15.pdf


Enjoy the coming good times Shareholders!!!

LM

Does anyone know if they've hedged any of their future output? It would be a bit of a drag to find out they can't take advantage of these prices.

Cheers,

C

 

[urgalzmine]

It could be some problems with their Chinchilla plant.

You could see it as insiders selling on the friday thats why the big drop.

 

[The Dealer]

Just joined the forum. Have watched ever since being given the heads up on this stock at 1.80.
I have been buying steadily over that time. I was on a buying spree on Thursday coming up to the announcement (plant running using proven technology)and my broker told me that no one is selling and he can't keep watching for the 150 here and 200 there. So I canned it!
So I returned on Friday. The most I could buy in one hit was 11000 and then 5000. The rest were 389, 200, 150 etc. Again I aint buying small blocks for fees chew up profit.
So the fall in price I would say was from a lack of buyers and not people selling out in mass. As when I took some of the larger chunks that came up (probably people taking profit for tax time to offset loses), the people selling the small amounts were trying to sell and not getting bites so they kept lowering their price (I kept over looking them and my broker would tell me that there is a chunk 5 down on the list was 5000 at $4.25). Simply as the volume is too low when it is a parcel of 100 shares to pay a broker fee etc. Therefore the price keeps dropping until someone buys. If you look at the turnover. The amount is very small. I paid on average $4.25 with some parcels being 3.80 on 1000 shares. Better to buy the parcel on 11000 and have one fee and hold them like the directors as they will be worth more in the future. The 3.70 now is cause someone bought the 100 parcel at 3.70. I could sell 100 Wednesday at $5 and that's the new price that it finishes on for the day and looks like a good paper profit. But will someone pay 5 if I sell a parcel of 20000? So I sit back and pick up parcels of 5000 etc of people who sell off for tax. They are then trying to buy them back and can't cause no one is selling big chunks.

 

[TheAbyss]

TD, as i understand it, if you put in an order for 11000 shares you will get all shares along the way at one brokerage fee not a fee per block.

This is how if you put in an order for 10000 units at 3.90 you end up with odd average buy per unit price if there are sellers between the current price and your max buy price per share ie 550 at 3.88, 3500 at 3.89 and 5950 at 3.90 will give you an average sp of 3.894 ish.

Not well explianed but you should see th point. Either way you only pay one brokerage irrespective of how many sellers you chew through to get your required quantity.

 

[The Dealer]

TA - Not through MPW. I am on the phone and my broker can tell me what's on offer. A block of 11000 at 4.34 etc. He will put in 11000 at 4.34 and presto they say yes, I say take them, it happens. I don't use a etrade or such and put in an order. If I put in an order through MPW and say buy 20000that happens and yes I get exactly what you said an average. That is what happened on Thursday and he got the *&*& with it as he had to watch all day. Then we decided to do it the other way on Friday.

 

[TheAbyss]

Each to their own TD. The alternative to sitting on the phone with your broker and receiving someone else's opinion and interpretation is opening your own online account and be your own broker.

One costs less, is immediate, will sit there watching and automaically place buy sell orders as supporting buys, rising buys/sells etc and can be relied on to act when you are ready.

The other one charges higher fees, is going to give you their opinion and is open to outside influences.

Just my opininon and yes i know there are good and bad brokers and there are also good and bad investors. Each to their own, enjoy.

 

[grace]

Placement at $3.70 and getting close now to making fuel. No date given, but it can't be far away. No bad news mentioned anyway.

Linc Energy’s flagship project is the UCG and GTL demonstration plant at Chinchilla, Queensland. Linc Energy is pleased to advise that the GTL demonstration plant has now progressed to a point where it is about to enter the final phase of commissioning. This next stage of commissioning is focussed upon the UCG gas being fed into the key units of the GTL demonstration plant for liquids (Diesel) to be produced.

 

[awg]

Isnt it a truely amazing the coincidence that it closed on friday at exactly the placement price.

Insiders must be all over this one, dont know how tightly the stock is held by the management and other close associates, but I expect the % must be very high.

tony