Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

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I don't understand why people have come to the conclusion that labor are anti UCG ? and trying to stand in the way..??
I hold all three of these companies, Linc since the beginning and Martin Ferguson in particular has been very supportive of what linc are trying to achieve.......
If state labor are the problem, surely fed lab would step in and tell em to back off as Ferguson himself recognises Australias growing dependance on foreign oil ... :confused:
 
namrog said:
I don't understand why people have come to the conclusion that labor are anti UCG ? and trying to stand in the way..??
I hold all three of these companies, Linc since the beginning and Martin Ferguson in particular has been very supportive of what linc are trying to achieve.......
If state labor are the problem, surely fed lab would step in and tell em to back off as Ferguson himself recognises Australias growing dependance on foreign oil ... :confused:
Click to expand...

Perhaps this will make it clear to you. By the way Greens Senator Milne is one of the most vocal haters of UCG. Bligh on the other hand approves of the giant coal seam gas miners (jobs, jobs, jobs), but is quite happy to abandon the UCG minnows.

[QUOTE]Greens pledge to back farmers against encroaching miners
Tuesday, 20/07/2010
Greens Leader Bob Brown says rural Australia should not fear the preference deal his party has done with Labor.
The deal will mean Labor directs its Senate preferences to the Australian Greens ahead of all other parties at the election.
Mr Brown says big business has too much power over the major parties, and the Greens will be a strong voice for rural Australia in the next Parliament.
He says the Greens will provide farmers with a voice against coal seam gas mining and will move to improve biosecurity measures.[/QUOTE]

http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201007/s2958855.htm
 
Who is going to keep their nerve that long? There are better pickings elsewhere.
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I think that LNC offers a far broader perspective than simply USG in Queensland. It has extensive holdings in America and interest in projects from Vietnam to other Asian countries.

It has already decided to develop its main UCG and GTL plant in South Australia and I understand they are getting a much warmer reception there. (It may also be that the agricultural community on SA is not as large in the area there are developing and the super size industrial development is far more welcomed.)

It has a very interesting Alkaline Fuel cell project which offers totally carbon free electricity at very competitive costs. That should turn a few heads in the green movement.

And finally they seem to on the verge of turning three coal tenements into 1.5 - 2 billion dollars. That is worth putting into the picture.

There is a lot more to LINC than just a single UCG plant and power station. As I mentioned earlier if Australia turned up it's nose at the technology it would not be surprising to see them immediately establish plants in their overseas interests.
 
Came across a very recent report on the Linc- AFC fuel cell project.

I don't think think this technology should be underestimated. It is a very elegant, cheap way to produce virtually carbon free electricity from stranded coal.

From looking at the costs of the AFC fuel cell it seems many times cheaper than , say, the local CFU unit. The technology is just nowhere near as complicated or expensive to produce or service. Which of course makes the final electricity produced far more cost competitive.

Successful trial of underground coal gasification and fuel cells
Fuel Cells, July 14 2010 (The Hydrogen Journal)

- Linc Energy Ltd of Australia, together with AFC Energy of the UK, have completed a successful trial in Queensland, Australia, gasifying coal underground to make coal gas (hydrogen, methane, carbon monoxide and ethylene) and putting it through a fuel cell to make electricity.

..."What is so remarkable about this trial is that the fuel cell configuration was able to produce reliable and efficient clean electricity from a much lower percentage hydrogen content gas than other fuel cells require," Linc Energy says.
"This effectively demonstrates that combining the AFC Fuel Cell technology with hydrogen from Linc Energy's syngas produced from the world-class UCG at Chinchilla is a feasible route to achieve the ultimate in clean electricity from stranded, sub-economic coal, of which there is an abundance in the world."

http://www.h2journal.com/displaynews.php?NewsID=482

AFC Fuel cell background. Why it's such good value
http://www.afcenergy.com/technology/alkaline-fuel-cell-system-background/

Where AFC and LNC are going with this technology(well worth a read...)

http://www.afcenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/AFC-Energy-plc-AFC-L-Allenby-Capital-7-July-20103.pdf
 
This is part of The Greens policy-

AUSTRALIAN GREENS POLICY: Water and Inland Aquatic Environment (cont’d)
www.greens.org.au/about/policies

Page 3 of 3

28 ensure that Australian drinking water supplies consistently meet or exceed WHO and National Drinking Water standards, and that catchment water quality is regularly monitored and publicly reported.

The current Cougar Energy trial site has complied with this policy 100% so there should be no need for them to call for their site to be abandoned.

LNC has also complied with this policy 100%.
 
LNC is on the move again. $1.42 and strong buying pressure. One would have to think (cross fingers) that by the close of business this Friday there would be a halt to trading to make an announcement.

Let's go!!:)
 
$1.50 and still on a vertical climb with strong buying. Have to wonder when ASX puts out a please explain.
 
I am assuming the latest hike in share price is due to this news story and the speculation that they are getting ready to aquire coal assets in Australia?

bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-20/adani-enterprises-plans-to-raise-as-much-as-850-million-selling-stock.html
 
Mickel said:
According to a later article from Bloomberg (about an hour ago) Adani have raised $US 850 Million after an institutional offering was oversubscribed to $US 1.2Billion. No official confirmation yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...in-india-s-biggest-sale-to-funds-in-2010.html
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I think this time the sale is going to be finalised.

No word from LNC but the Adani ship is leaking...

=DJ Adani Enterprises In Talks To Buy Linc Energy Coal Mine - Source21/07/2010 08:54PM AEST
By Eric Yep

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


MUMBAI (Dow Jones)--Adani Enterprises Ltd. (512599.BY) is expected to conclude a deal by early August with Australia's Linc Energy Ltd. (LNCGY) to acquire a coal mine in Queensland state, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said Wednesday.

"Something concrete should come out by early August if Adani gets it," the person who declined to be named told Dow Jones Newswires.

Adani is in talks "which are still in progress," said the person, adding that Linc has also received offers from other companies.

Linc Energy Chief Executive Peter Bond last week confirmed it was talking to Adani about selling its Galilee thermal coal property in Queensland state, recently valued by Linc at over A$1 billion.


-By Eric Yep, Dow Jones Newswires; 91-22-6145-6110; eric.yep@dowjones.com
:eek:


Either there is a last minute bidding war in progress with the other parties or they are haggling over final price.

With that huge capital raising at their disposal Adani looks to be the goods.

LNC should see some strong upwards momentum in coming days.

The key question is how much the sale will be for and how much goodwill the market will factor into lincs technology regarding it's shareprice after the sale goes through.

I'm leaning towards this sale being practically a done deal but of course nothing is certain until the ink is on the contract.

After months and months of waiting for this sale and taking losses on LNC over the past couple of years I'll be more than happy to see it finally happen.

Holding with some anticipation!

:D
 
I think this time the sale is going to be finalised.

No word from LNC but the Adani ship is leaking...
Click to expand...

It does look encouraging - particularly if there is another company also making an offer. Nothing like competition to create a keen environment. I think the critical point is India's desire for energy security. They seem to running short of coal and in that context the sale seems more urgent.

Still want to see the cheques in the bank and cleared ASAP. The rest of the market looks too uncertain to hang around.

As far as the value of LNC post sale? If the sale goes for $1b that should be around $2 a share for the cash alone. If the rest of the coal assets, the technology, the overseas coal leases and whatever arn't worth $2 a share (roughly another $1billion ) we're in the wrong game.

Another key factor is that currently LNC lacks institutional shareholders. If/when the sale goes through all the bodies that hold index linked funds will need to reevaluate the company and probably re weight their portfolios. That should put more meat on the share price.
 
basilio said:
As far as the value of LNC post sale? If the sale goes for $1b that should be around $2 a share for the cash alone. If the rest of the coal assets, the technology, the overseas coal leases and whatever arn't worth $2 a share (roughly another $1billion ) we're in the wrong game.

Another key factor is that currently LNC lacks institutional shareholders. If/when the sale goes through all the bodies that hold index linked funds will need to reevaluate the company and probably re weight their portfolios. That should put more meat on the share price.
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Agree 100 % with the above.

Announcement this morning - LNC's response to an ASX speeding ticket-
"Nothing is signed"

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100722/pdf/31rfyp02hhp790.pdf
 
Mickel said:
Agree 100 % with the above.

Announcement this morning - LNC's response to an ASX speeding ticket-
"Nothing is signed"

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100722/pdf/31rfyp02hhp790.pdf
Click to expand...


I think they forgot to add one word....yet :p:

Damn LNC is a tricky stock to trade.

I almost set a stop last night and whaddayaknow it plunged down 7 cents on open and rebounded straight back up.

I have been stung any number of times trading LNC.

Anyways got my trailing stop far enough back not to get hit on daily fluctuations but to cover the hopefully very unlikely third strike out deal failure would would really send LNC off the cliff.

Hopefully Mr Adani or someone is going to show us the money!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaiSHcHM0PA

:cool:
 
sold out of LNC yesterday at 1.535. Missed the opportunity to buy back in today at 1.47. Looking to get back in tomorrow on a dip but with the dow futures up and the spi up, that opportunity may have passed. The speculation driving this stock is crazy and it is a great stock to trade the swings at the moment if you can keep up. If no news comes tomorrow on the sale, the dip may come.
I am really struggling with getting back in to LNC or entering AUT, they both have announcements coming in the next week or two which will be significant for both price levels??? Maybe long on both.......

Any thoughts are gladly welcomed?
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mickel View Post
Agree 100 % with the above.

Announcement this morning - LNC's response to an ASX speeding ticket-
"Nothing is signed"

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2010072...yp02hhp790.pdf
Click to expand...

I think they forgot to add one word....yet
Click to expand...

It's a given for LNC to say nothing has been signed. I don't know if this is accidental or "accidentally on purpose" but the unfolding of the final stages of this sale appears to :

1) Offer an excellent opportunity for investors (or speculators) to pile in during this twilight zone between sealed and delivered.

2) Create a useful squeeze on all the parties interested in the tenements to put in their best serious bids

Unlike the previous sales attempts which only involved negotiations with one interested party this time there seems to be three. That should give LNC the upper hand.

____________________________________________________

Another reflection. Earlier on I hypothesized on the value of LNC post sale. I suggested $2Billion or $4.00 a share seemed on the money.

I don't resile from this but thinking about other shares there is absolutely no need for the market to take a rational, intelligent view of assets when setting share prices. I can remember at least a few mining shares last year which sold at a steep discount to actual cash in the bank as well as billions of tons of product. If the market goes sour LNC's SP can go south with the rest of them. Doesn't make them accurate - just the current perception.
 
basilio said:
Another reflection. Earlier on I hypothesized on the value of LNC post sale. I suggested $2Billion or $4.00 a share seemed on the money.

I don't resile from this but thinking about other shares there is absolutely no need for the market to take a rational, intelligent view of assets when setting share prices. I can remember at least a few mining shares last year which sold at a steep discount to actual cash in the bank as well as billions of tons of product. If the market goes sour LNC's SP can go south with the rest of them. Doesn't make them accurate - just the current perception.
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Basilio, I agreed with your earlier comment 100% but I was thinking that could be a minimum as-

1. Galilee Sale/P of US$1B I consider a minimum with plenty of upside

2."If the rest of the coal assets, the technology, the overseas coal leases and whatever arn't worth $2 a share (roughly another $1billion )" I consider a minimum. The AFC Fuel Cell alone could be worth $2 a share, if they release profitability estimates in a similar format to the GTL ones mentioned below.

3. As previously mentioned, the lack of Institutional Investors (who need to buy when the coal sale is announced and LNC moves into the top 100 ASX list) should power up the scramble for scrip. (Pun intended).

So the current perception could just as easily be the other way and a S/P of $10+ is not impossible in the immediate aftermath of the Coal sale particularily if we get an analyst update on the GTL profitability on this-

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-18.pdf

which was done when the diesel first flowed from the demo plant. There are many improvements to the process since Oct 08.
 
So the current perception could just as easily be the other way and a S/P of $10+ is not impossible in the immediate aftermath of the Coal sale particularily if we get an analyst update on the GTL profitability on this-

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-18.pdf

which was done when the diesel first flowed from the demo plant. There are many improvements to the process since Oct 08.
Click to expand...
Mickel

You are so right Mickel! I attempted to list all of the improvements/achievements Linc has made since that October 2008 anaylyst report (so not included in BBY's share valuation of $7.50 per share and their DCF valuation of $14.95 per share) and it is absolutely amazing! Take a look:-

  1. Purchased huge coal area in Wyoming (governor wants to have first commercial UCG/GTL plant),
  2. Purchased huge coal/gas area in Alaska - first gas well drilling results due imminent,
  3. Purchased more coal tenements in Queensland for further coal exploration,
  4. Signed deal with AFC Energy for exclusive use of hydrogen fuel cells to generate electricty/water from syngas - and proven it works,
  5. Established a world class GTL lab at Chinchilla,
  6. Increased the estimated diesel produced from 1 tonnes coal by 30% to 1.3 barrels,
  7. JORC qualified huge stranded coal reserves in south Australia with enough coal for a 20,000 barrel a day plant for 60++ yrs,
  8. Oil 'shows' in their Arckaringa basin (potential oil find)
  9. Achieved successful oxygen injection in Chinchilla
  10. Achieved significant increased distances between the ignition and extraction wells (reducing cost)
  11. Is in the ASX 200 but not yet included in many institutional investors funds because Linc did not have the capital to achieve its objectives.
  12. A potential 25-30% price recovery if Australian election results put the opposition in power and the 40% mining profits tax disappears for coal/gas companies

Also remember that a lot of the above announcements above did not add to the SP as Linc was not able to progress with their objectives until they had the financing established (i.e. the coal sale sorted).

On top of that I still personally believe the total value achieved from all 3 coal areas is more likely to be closer to AUD 2.5 billion as I cannot see Emerald being worth less than the 1.5 billion offered in Sept 08, so that plus Adani's AUD$1.3 billion (USD 1 billion) for Galilee. Remember coal is in absolutely huge demand now:- http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abO6yEGou2JA

It is also true that UCG is not yet "out there" in the public domain so Linc is not yet getting the investor interest it deserves. I watched a CNBC show called "Crude Reality" (sorry I cannot find the link) which listed alternatives to deep sea oil drilling. These consisted of Canadian Oil Sands and Bio Oil (either algae to make fuel or Ethanol from crops). UCG is so much better than these alternatives in terms of cost (less than half the cost of producing oil from oil sands), environmental impact etc plus of course enough stranded coal in the US to provide oil independance for them paranoid chaps and so many other countries!! Would the US keep messing in the Middle East if they didn't need the oil?? Maybe Linc could potentially create world peace! ;)

I think all us Linc investors could actually positively impact the "UCG situation" by writing to politicians, newspapers and every forum that would get the UCG option in the public domain! Not only would that raise the UCG profile for the betterment of the planet but it would also send the Linc SP (rightfully) through the roof! :2twocents

This has got to be the most undervalued stock with the most 'world changing' potential in the ASX 200!

Note: I am a long term holder and have recently doubled my holding as this is an amazing once in a lifetime opportunity :)
 
Isn't it fascinating how one's focus on a situation can fire up imagination and strong beliefs in the seeming inevitability of a particular outcome.

I believe that LNC does have an excellent product and could go exceptionally well. But the funny thing is there are probably a score, perhaps a hundred or even a thousand other companies with similar plausible stories. Great technologies and ideas. Visionary hard driving entrepreneurs. Really effective PR people. Excellent political connections.... Perhaps a dash of luck.....

I written earlier that in my view it is not necessarily the best technology, the brightest talent or the best plans that end up being the huge financial successes. In a number of cases it is something as mundane as having the political clout to have your company favored while your competitors find themselves in all sorts of problems. It can be having the muscle, impudence and legal capacity to steal a competitors product and march into the market place first.

Does any of this sound familiar ? In the real world how realistic is it for the current behemoths of the energy industry to allow a little upstart like LNC to suddenly become a key supplier of energy and making the billions of dollars they believe they should be making ?

I certainly don't want to decry the incredible opportunities LNC offers and the chance that there will be a good return. But I think in evaluating what value the broader market place puts on the share the bigger picture issues of the power of current incumbency in the energy industry should not be underestimated. I believe part of the way LNC will be successful will be creating new partnerships that will recognize and support the company and the UCG/GTL process to ensure it does not suffer the fate of other disruptive technology entrepreneurs

Cheers
 
Isn't it fascinating how one's focus on a situation can fire up imagination and strong beliefs in the seeming inevitability of a particular outcome.
 

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