Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

Conference date

5th-annual-coal-to-liquids-and-gas-to-liquids-conference

Tuesday 16th February 2010


12.20

The progress of UCG to GTL: Growth & potential
  • Linc's commercial path in SA and the United States
  • Linc Project updates
  • Opportunities and development challenges
  • Case studies in Australia and overseas
Justyn Peters, General Manager, Government and Environmental Affairs, Linc Energy

http://www.iir.com.au/informa-confe...s-and-gas-to-liquids-conference-P10R06/agenda


Interesting to note that Liberty Resources are also looking at Hydrogen energy, I wonder if Linc might operate a fuel cell power station for Liberty, as Linc do have exclusivity to AFC fuel cells for 2 years(they can extend this to perpetuity).

4.30

Creating cleaner energy - Hydrogen fuel and other options
  • UCG to Hydrogen energy
  • Transport fuels
  • Transporting energy from production to market
Peter Sallans, General Manager UCG, Liberty Resources

Hi Coal Face, Carbon Energy have already executed a HoA with Liberty to access their tenaments in the Galilee Basin.

Here is the link;
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090727/pdf/31jr4ztp13w29p.pdf
 
springhill

I know that, but Carbon Energy are mainly the UCG specialist.

If Linc offered the LR/CE JV a fuel cell power station on ESCO(at nil cost) I think they would take it, the benefits are massive in comparison to using a turbine. Even CE say on their website that the best they can get is about 78% CO2 capture(and that would cost a fourtune, lower efficiency 25% and raise water usage 23%), with fuel cells it's already 99% CO2 capture with no downside.

"coal-fired power stations (880 kg/MWh)"

"Partial Shift with CCS less than 200 kg/MWhr"

http://www.carbonenergy.com.au/inde...ion-carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs-clean-coal
 
Aussie UCG's tipped :)


Feb 07, 2010 (BRW - ABIX via COMTEX) --
Australian-listed underground coal gasification stocks deserve more interest from investors who are not afraid of speculative investments. There are five companies to choose from: Linc Energy, Carbon Energy, Cougar Energy, Clean Global Energy and Liberty Resources. These companies may be illiquid and their share prices may be volatile, but their long-term prospects are excellent.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/news/stock-alert/lncgy_long-term-potential-759313.html
 
21st Century Ultimate Guide to Clean Coal: FutureGen Power Plant, Carbon Dioxide Control and Carbon Sequestration, Hydrogen Production Research (Two CD-ROMs)

Product Description
Here is your authoritative guide to all aspects of clean coal, from the Federal Government! These discs represent the best coverage of clean coal technology development available in any single package! This unique two CD-ROM guide covers every aspect of clean coal. The federal government, through the Energy Department and the National Energy Technology Laboratory, is financing a research portfolio that is designed to remove environmental concerns over the future use of coal by developing revolutionary, near-zero emissions coal technology. In partnership with the private sector, technology developments are focused on maximizing efficiency and environmental performance while driving down the cost for these new technologies. RD&D efforts focus on near-term developments to enhance the capabilities of the existing fleet of coal-fired power plants while, in parallel, developing the technology base for future coal energy plants. These future technologies will ultimately be integrated in the FutureGen project, which will serve as a commercial-scale R&D test bed for showcasing advanced coal technologies. The central challenge is to provide coal-based technologies that essentially eliminate pollutant emissions, manage carbon emissions, and remain cost competitive. NETL's RD&D efforts in coal and power systems contribute to several vital national goals: Clean power generation. Coal fuels the majority of power generation capacity in the United States and in many other areas of the world. With technology advances, future coal power systems will be dramatically cleaner and more efficient than plants based on older technologies. Secure and reliable energy supplies. Coal is an abundant domestic energy resource. At current rates of consumption, coal could meet U.S. needs for more than 250 years. With new technologies, our Nation can use this valuable resource while also meeting environmental protection goals. Climate change. On a global and national level, coal use accounts for a significant proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. Making coal power systems more efficient contributes to the national goal of reducing carbon intensity. Toward a hydrogen economy. Our large domestic coal resources offer a viable mid-term resource for producing the large quantities of hydrogen. RD&D efforts in coal and power systems fall into three categories: Technologies that enable existing coal power plants to cost effectively meet environmental requirements. NETL and its research partners are developing environmental control technologies for retrofitting existing power plants, with application to new plants as well. Key areas of research include cost-effective control of mercury, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and fine particulate emissions; beneficial uses for coal utilization byproducts; and innovations to minimize the impact of fossil-fuel use on the Nation's water resources. Technologies for coal power plants of the future with dramatically improved performance. NETL is developing a technology base for the highly efficient, near zero- emissions power plants of tomorrow. Technologies under development for future power plants include coal gasification, advanced turbines, combustion technologies, and distributed generation and fuel cells. The FutureGen prototype ultimately will combine advanced systems with carbon sequestration and coal fuels technology to co-produce electricity and hydrogen with nearzero emissions. To support coal and power systems development, NETL conducts a range of pre-competitive advanced research, focused on breakthroughs in materials, sensors and controls, biotechnology and bioprocessing, pollutant formation and removal, and advanced computational processes. Clean coal demonstration projects.

http://coalgeology.com/21st-century...ion-hydrogen-production-research-two-cd-roms/
 
They gave a hint in the quartly report couple of weeks ago, top of page 9.
It will be very interesting if this turns out to be a significant deposit.
 
So now we find oil! Nice announcement this morning of oil traces amongst the coal seams that LINC is finding Arckaringa Basin.

As usual Peter Bond is promoting it as "extremely exciting " and a measure of the great things to come.

And of course the SP has had a good flip to $1.49. (seems like the $1.40 buyers have made a killing!!)

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/asx-206.pdf
 
Not until I sell them.
Would also like to thank someone there who said I should go with momemtum and buy below $1.40. So I bought more for less than 1.40!
I wont tell you what strike price I have put on some of them or you may buy them at the higher price by mistake!:)
 
What a perverse little market we have.!! Find more coal, find some oil into the bargain, you see a nice yelp and then it just all falls down again..

Hate to see what would happen if there was any actual bad news let alone nothing in particular! Obviously more people want out than in at the moment.

What a great character building exercise...:banghead:
 
Australian Energy Report 10th February

AER: Are you actively involved in seeking buyers for the Emerald Coal asset, and do you think that last years indicative price of around $1.5 billion is still achievable?

PB: Absolutely and its a good question. Its not just Emerald Coal but also Galilee - its a combination of assets and from that perspective yeah the combination of those still attract something in that value range. How you get there whether its all cash or part cash part participation where we still retain a share, theres a couple of ways you can cut that cake but certainly in hard value back to our shareholders I strongly believe that it has a cash value of around that sort of number.

I mean those two assets in Galilee at 7.8 billion tonnes is bigger than Clive Palmers announcement of his combined assets north and south which are two distinct mine areas. We have 1 mine area 7.8 billion tonnes of which over 2 billion tonnes will be open cuttable. Its an outstanding resource. Weve just finished the mine plan on Emerald which is just outside of Emerald which is 15 km literally just out of town and literally our neighbors are Rio Tinton and BHP. We just finished the mine plan through a 3rd party and just completed that work on top of some initial modeling that weve done and its outstanding I mean its come out better than what I even I believed and Im obviously fairly exuberant about it. And Galilee its turning out to be a very good asset and I am more that confident that 1.5 billion is a reasonably attained number.

Now that said, we need to nail it and get the cash in the bank. Now we would have 2 or 3 parties that we are actively negotiating with and we could have probably have come out with a couple of announcements by now but I dont want to come out with any false starts. I want to come out with this as the deal - this is exactly how its structured. Is the money in the bank? This is the deposit. And you dont want to come out with anything too early. And that would be a mistake. We want something ready in a box, ready to go with the cash and everyone knows exactly where we stand.

We are very firm in how we are negotiating the asset that said we have a lot of people interested and the more people look at it the more they realize what a good asset it is.
 
]
Australian Energy Report 10th February

Nice find Jonathan. Would be good to see the whole interview or perhaps this is it?

What did I get from it? Peter believes that the coal resources are worth a lot of money and he is intent on getting full value for them. He obviously feels a bit burnt over the earlier announcements that have come to nothing and which embarrassed him and Linc.

It seems clear that there won't be any announcements in the near or even mid term future and that when they are made they should stick. Or so it seems.

I suppose my reservations as a keenly interested shareholder are

1) Lincs main game is turning coal into oil. That will take a lot of cash and at least 2-3 years. In that context getting cashed up ASAP would enable the main plan to get going promptly and properly.. After all it is clear that the realities of peak oil will hit within 2-3 years. That won't be a good time to look for cash. It will be a good time to sell diesel.

2) I seem to see a lot of coal exploration around and new finds made regularly. I wonder if potential buyers can be more choosy and thus string the process out. This would delay settlement repeatedly.

3) I have a concern about the overall fragility of the share market and the world economy. If it is tough negotiating a good deal now what could it look like if Greece or Portugal or Spain or whatever fall over causing some extreme economic crisis?

If things just drift along I could see Lincs SP drifting further downwards - possibly even collapsing if nasty crunch occurs. The opportunity to raise further cash to stay afloat in such a market would be minimal or extremely expensive. Is this a reasonable risk to take?

I appreciate that management is actively exploring many other options to ensure ongoing liquidity but is it possible to be too cute in what is a very volatile market place ?:confused: I can't see these options bringing in as much cash as sale of the coal.

What do other forum members think ?
 
Quoted by Peter Bond


"Now we would have 2 or 3 parties that we are actively negotiating with and we could have probably have come out with a couple of announcements by now but I dont want to come out with any false starts. I want to come out with this as the deal - this is exactly how its structured. Is the money in the bank? This is the deposit. And you dont want to come out with anything too early. And that would be a mistake. We want something ready in a box, ready to go with the cash and everyone knows exactly where we stand."

That is quite amusing especially the bit about not wanting to come out too early, considering he has given 3-4 false start announcements in the past.

These were obviously mistakes then Peter, considering people were buying on hope of the sale.
 
]


Nice find Jonathan. Would be good to see the whole interview or perhaps this is it?

What did I get from it? Peter believes that the coal resources are worth a lot of money and he is intent on getting full value for them. He obviously feels a bit burnt over the earlier announcements that have come to nothing and which embarrassed him and Linc.

It seems clear that there won't be any announcements in the near or even mid term future and that when they are made they should stick. Or so it seems.

I suppose my reservations as a keenly interested shareholder are

1) Lincs main game is turning coal into oil. That will take a lot of cash and at least 2-3 years. In that context getting cashed up ASAP would enable the main plan to get going promptly and properly.. After all it is clear that the realities of peak oil will hit within 2-3 years. That won't be a good time to look for cash. It will be a good time to sell diesel.

2) I seem to see a lot of coal exploration around and new finds made regularly. I wonder if potential buyers can be more choosy and thus string the process out. This would delay settlement repeatedly.

3) I have a concern about the overall fragility of the share market and the world economy. If it is tough negotiating a good deal now what could it look like if Greece or Portugal or Spain or whatever fall over causing some extreme economic crisis?

If things just drift along I could see Lincs SP drifting further downwards - possibly even collapsing if nasty crunch occurs. The opportunity to raise further cash to stay afloat in such a market would be minimal or extremely expensive. Is this a reasonable risk to take?

I appreciate that management is actively exploring many other options to ensure ongoing liquidity but is it possible to be too cute in what is a very volatile market place ?:confused: I can't see these options bringing in as much cash as sale of the coal.

What do other forum members think ?


Agree with you 100% basilio , my thinking is along similar lines at the moment, especially on point 3..
Unfortunately there is not much we as shareholders can do exept protect our capital, so the only thing that I can suggest if there is any doubt, is to set a stop loss, at least you'll be able to sleep at night.....
 
I wouldnt be able to sleep at night if i wasnt holding and the stock went into trading halt due to a big coal sale.

I sold out on QGC and took 70K with a 30K gain so i could put a deposit on a house in Blacktown and missed out on being a millionaire as the shares kept rising til it got taken over.. :blbl: Ive had plenty of similar experience too many to count...:evilburn:

I will hold LNC to see if they make it to producing comercial GTL and hold for the dividends. Hopefully they reach this stage and never get taken over.. :aliena:


:knightrid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkOGM6gHvao
 
I wouldnt be able to sleep at night if i wasnt holding and the stock went into trading halt due to a big coal sale.

I sold out on QGC and took 70K with a 30K gain so i could put a deposit on a house in Blacktown and missed out on being a millionaire as the shares kept rising til it got taken over.. :blbl: Ive had plenty of similar experience too many to count...:evilburn:

I will hold LNC to see if they make it to producing comercial GTL and hold for the dividends. Hopefully they reach this stage and never get taken over.. :aliena:


:knightrid:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkOGM6gHvao

Jonathon , if past performance is anything to go by, you will know in advance if a sale is pending, unless the leaks have been patched.
And just because a person gets stopped out doesn't mean they can't re enter, but I do know what you mean, having been in the QGC position my self, lucky for me , I got that one right , but there have been many others similar to your experience, but hey you have a house, can't have it both ways, and the hindsight thing, if only we knew these things in advance..

Waiting for LNC to pay a divie ? , you would have to be looking 10 years ahead, that's a long time, hope it pays off for you...:)
 
Came across some interesting observations in the big $60Billion Clive Palmer coal sale to China.

It was announced with big fanfare a week or so ago but now seems to have some issues with whether the Chinese are actually onboard. (Sounds like Linc earlier claims doesn't it ?)

An article in todays Age questions how realistic is the idea of building a 490 klm private rail link and the profitbility of the whole deal. But there was also a note on the cost of the thermal coal resources Palmer is selling.

Most of Palmer's estimated 7 billion tonnes of coal were acquired in last year's $140 million takeover of Waratah Coal. The magnate plans to spend a further $7.5 billion building a mine capable of exporting 40 million tonnes of coal a year.

Not a lot of money for 7 billion tons of coal is it ?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/doubts-over-palmers-megamine-proposal-20100212-nxno.html
 
]1) Lincs main game is turning coal into oil. That will take a lot of cash and at least 2-3 years. In that context getting cashed up ASAP would enable the main plan to get going promptly and properly.. After all it is clear that the realities of peak oil will hit within 2-3 years. That won't be a good time to look for cash. It will be a good time to sell diesel.
Suffice to say that the only reason I hold this stock is in expectation of a collision between oil production and consumption at some point in the next few years.

How it will play out I really don't know, but a company that can turn stranded or inaccessible coal into diesel must surely have value in a world short on oil. Whether that value is realised by the company going into production or being taken over by an established major oil company remains to be seen.
 
The chart for LNC is trading in quite a nice little range and there has been higher than normal trading over the last few months.

I enclose a weekly chart with harmonic simple moving averages 5,15,30, beloved of Dawn Bolton Smith, one of Australia's foremost chartists.

gg

Its still meandering about in a trading range between $1.35 and $1.80.

An interesting weekly chart. Very interesting.

gg
 

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Good news on the Thermal coal price front, although I understand that only a portion of coal resource for sale is actually thermal.

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=coal-australian&months=60

This shows the price increasing so that the USD 160.71 per metric tonne that it was priced at in Sep 08 when Xinwen made their AUD 1.5 billion offer is now back to USD 103.92 (Jan 2010) after hitting a low of USD 65.35 in March 2009. Of course Linc's coal resource has been significantly increased since that time and we are due a final update very soon (maybe in the next couple of weeks).

Coal price is increasing by the month so in theory the longer the wait (and it has been the longest wait in the history of waiting :banghead:) the better value the resource.

Personally I think this stock is well undervalued at present which is good for those investors that have had the patience to hang on in there. :)
 
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