LNC - Linc Energy

A comment regarding short sellers

Hi All,

I reckon the SP action over the past few months is a classic case of what short selling does to a SP.

The SP has been short sold to buggery, which has forced down the SP to an unrealistic level. This is okay, if it turns out the stock is a dog (ie ABS or BNB).

What happens if the stock is not a dog??

Well, I reckon at the moment, pre Teresa sale, $2 bucks a share is a pretty appropriate value in todays pessimistic sharemarket. Lets value LNC based on the next twelve months only (short term view due to pessimism)
Teresa sale net $1.5billion?? Not if your pessimistic. Lets assume $800mill, this would work out to about $2 bucks a share CASH.

So after the short sellers are done (SP at about $1), the bargain hunters move in saying "if they sell Teresa for $800m, it should be worth $2. As the SP moves up, the short sellers are caught out, so it moves quickly with short covering.
And, no short seller is going to want to be short at the end of the day, when the Teresa sale is announced - hence all the movement at the end of the day.

Thats my reckoning anyway...

Anything over $800mil, and the SP could rocket with all the short sellers cleaned out - and perhaps some institutions moving onto the register? (LNC is ASX 200, and does not have big institutional shareholding because at the moment they are still "speculative penny stock" according to fund managers. They will wait for the proof that profit is on the way...)

What are other holders doing here. A breakout could be evident over $2 and then first hurdle around $2.26. I have been starved for cash so couldn't get the upside since Monday. Not sure if to jump in or wait for confirmation of the proposed sale.

Yesterday's price moveiment reveals a blow of candle just under $2.

Support is back down to $1.55 roughly.

The share run seems to bullish in the current circumstances.

Has the Teresa sale already been factored in?

Is it buy the rumour and sell the fact?

Will there even be a sale or is PB bluffing us again?

Anybody else who has not bought in looking to buy today?

Nero64 said:

What are other holders doing here. A breakout could be evident over $2 and then first hurdle around $2.26. I have been starved for cash so couldn't get the upside since Monday. Not sure if to jump in or wait for confirmation of the proposed sale.

Yesterday's price moveiment reveals a blow of candle just under $2.

Support is back down to $1.55 roughly.

The share run seems to bullish in the current circumstances.

Has the Teresa sale already been factored in?

Is it buy the rumour and sell the fact?

Will there even be a sale or is PB bluffing us again?

Anybody else who has not bought in looking to buy today?

Click to expand...

Very, very tempted at today's low of 1.610. Guess the drop was due to the Half yearly report. Not much shocking news in the report so a pretty fickle drop IMO.

Yeah I was watching it roughly around 11.00pm. I saw the day low listed at 1.61. At the time it was 1.645 or something. I set a buy order to 1.60 feeling a retest of support or lower prices. No cigar. The range today was 31c. A few people got caught at 1.92 then saw it drop 30c

I also reckon people were buying the safe big stocks today and some beaten down mid caps and forgot about the ones that have achieved quick gains recently.

Is confidence back?

LNC up 10% today at $1.90. Seems to be okay volume.

Is the market more confident of a positive announcement at the end of this week? Are people creeping into the stock in anticipation?

Anyone out there trading?

Is the recent price rise due to the current market conditions or are investors starting to see the possiblity the deal will go through and LNC will come end March with a possible 1.5billion dollars minus tax and what not.

The spare cash will definitely be worth a whole lot in the current market.

Probably because of the fact that oil has hit a 3 month high...

InvestorLINC Issue 11 dated March 2009 received.

CEO Peter Bond says in part-

"The executive team at Linc Energy have the Emerald coal asset sale set very high on the agenda and negotiations continue to progress with a number of interested parties, including groups from China. I do thank you for your patience with this sale and I am hopeful that you can appreciate the complications which have arisen during the course of these negotiations since the world market meltdown. That said, I feel progress is being made in the right direction."

LNC finished down 3c at $1.83 today.

Hopefully, we won't have to wait too much longer for some good news.

Apparently no later then the 23rd of March if I recall correctly.
My assumption is that they will wait that long.

Here is an from a recent ABN News Wire date the 10/03/09 not discussed in recent times,

Work continues to progress on the Vietnam UCG trial project which is as previously announced a collaboration between VINACOMIN (Vietnamese State Owned Corporation), Marubeni Coal Pty Ltd (Japanese Private Equity Company) and Linc Energy. The site for the trial has now been selected and is approximately 60 kilometres southeast of Hanoi within the Red River Delta, with easy access to a region that is increasingly energy hungry.

Talks to finalise the ultimate contractual details and commencement for Stage 1 of the program are near conclusion. There are only minor issues left to resolve and it is anticipated that the final contracts will be signed in the coming weeks.

Linc Energy's technical team continues to work on many innovative ways to handle the unique challenges to be confronted in the Red River Delta Area. The Company sees this as an opportunity to develop portable, skid-mounted production units that will provide Linc Energy with a set of tools to routinely and cost effectively undertake trial UCG projects in any location in the future.

Linc Energy's drilling engineers are also working to develop innovative aspects into the well design to improve upon lessons learnt from our Chinchilla trials and with input from Yerostigaz commercial operations.

It is intended that Stage 1 of the program that includes sixty days of gas production will be completed within twelve months. The purpose of this stage is to determine the suitability of the Red River Delta coal for underground gasification. If successful, the companies will move into Stage 2 of the program; being the development of a commercial UCG field to provide syngas for much needed power generation in Vietnam.

Click to expand...

Should the announcement on the 23rd be positive, Linc will find itself proving its a new future for liquid fuels production and power generation. A new greenish energy class.

DISC:HOLD

Where does it say anything about diesel production ?

If you look at any of the recent announcements, there is little or no mention of liquids production, and, more and more talk of syngas being used for power generation, seems to me they are changing tact a little, got to ask the question , are there some problems with the GTL process, as this is what linc are really about, in my oppinion of course.

Otherwise, linc are no different than a host of companies listed on the asx that are into CTG , of which there is no shortage of supply.

Figures for diesel production from the demo plant is what we really need to see, but has anyone else noticed that the company has been conspiciously quiet re these numbers ??

I really hope they can pull it off, but the bullsh!t and the delaying tactics need to stop.
Peter bond and co, should get back to managing the company, not managing the share price.

It's as simple as this in my eyes, regardless of the tight credit situation at the moment, or whether they sell the theresa tennements or not,,, if it is proven that the gas to liquids procces works satisfactorily, then I believe the neccesary funds can be raised easily to build a commercial plant as the figures speak for themselves.........

Namrod,

The Vietnam venture with Marubeni and Vinacomin has always been about power generation, not liquids.

I think the poster you responded to was making the point that Linc's business covers liquids and power and wasn't making any reference to Vietnam liquids.

I have included 2 of Linc's announcements dating back to mid 2007 for your reference.

LINC ENERGY FURTHER CEMENTS RELATIONSHIP WITH MARUBENI
CORPORATION

Brisbane-based Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) has today announced that it has further cemented the
relationship with Marubeni Corporation that was established with the signing of a Memorandum of
Understanding (MOU) on 12th June 2007, with a further agreement being entered into between Linc Energy
Ltd, Marubeni Corporation and the Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industrial Group (VINACOMIN) signed on
Thursday, 2nd August in Hanoi.
Linc Energy Ltd (LINC ENERGY) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Vietnam National
Coal and Mineral Industries Group (VINACOMIN) and Marubeni Corporation (MARUBENI) to form a Joint
Venture Company as a means to develop the Red River Delta Coal Basin (Vietnam) via the application of Linc
Energy’s Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) process, and to use that UCG gas for feeding a proposed
combined cycle gas fired power station.
VINACOMIN is a State-owned business enterprise established by the Prime Minister of Vietnam in a bid to
develop Vietnam’s significant resources.
VINACOMIN has identified 30 billion tonnes of coal in the Red River Delta (see attached diagram of the
region) which has significant development potential via Linc Energy applying its UCG process. Linc Energy will
be paid to construct, operate and own a UCG demonstration facility as part of the program of development in
the Red River Delta which is located 30 to 40km from Hanoi (Fig 1). Hanoi is the economic centre of
northern Vietnam – Haiphong, Vietnam’s main port, lies on a branch of the delta.

The Red River Delta has a requirement for a low impact mining strategy which is why VINACOMIN and
Marubeni are exploring utilising Linc Energy’s UCG process - the first step in unlocking the significant potential
the region has to offer. It is the intention of the Joint Venture Company that a 400mW combined cycle UCG
gas fired power station be constructed within the region and that all power generated from this facility be sold
to the Vietnam Government at an agreed price for a period of twenty-five (25) years.
“All three parties to this MOU were very excited about the potential to unlock the coal in the
Red River Delta so as to be used to provide clean power for Vietnam. It is a great example of
an Australian Company exporting clean coal technology to an Asian country who’s economy is
booming” said Justyn Peters, General Manager of Business Development for Linc Energy.
This new Memorandum of Understanding reinforces Linc Energy’s presence on the global stage.

AND

Vietnam National Coal-Mineral Industrial Group (VINACOMIN) signs
further MOU with Linc Energy

• MOU signed in the presence of Vietnam’s Prime Minister (His Excellency Mr
Nguyen Tan Dung) and the Queensland Trade Minister (The Hon John Mickel
MP)
• VINACOMIN of Vietnam to invest US $5m into Linc Energy and pay a further
US $5m for LNC’s consulting services
• Power deal could supply up to 6 million homes in Vietnam with power
generated from Underground Coal Gasification (UCG)
Linc Energy Ltd (LNC) announced that as part of its growing presence in Vietnam, the
company signed an Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) yesterday agreeing to be part of
stage 1 of the Red River Delta Consortium.
As part of this MOU, VINACOMIN will invest US$5million into Linc Energy, with the final
commercial terms of this investment to be negotiated.
In addition to this investment into Linc Energy, it is proposed that Linc Energy will be paid a
further US$5m for its services in developing a UCG gas field at the Red River Delta location.
The Red River Delta project eventually will have the potential capacity to supply electricity
to around 6 million homes in Vietnam and do so with power produced from a lower CO2
yielding production process via the utilisation of Linc Energy’s clean coal UCG process.
The MOU was signed in the presence of Vietnam’s Prime Minister, His Excellency Mr Nguyen
Tan Dung and the Queensland Minister of Trade The Honourable John Mickel MP.
Mr Peter Bond, the CEO of Linc Energy said “I would like to thank the Prime Minister, His
Excellency Mr Nguyen Tan Dung, for his participation in the MOU signing Ceremony. I
would also like to thank the Queensland Minister of Trade, the Honourable John Mickel for
his attendance and support in what is a defining moment for Linc Energy and Queensland
trade with the export of Clean Coal technology to Vietnam.”
Linc Energy will be commencing stage 1 of the Red River Delta project, later this year once
Linc has completed the commissioning of its Chinchilla Coal to Liquids facility, which is
currently underway and on track for completion over the coming weeks.
Should you require any further information, please do not hesitate to contact Peter Bond on
(07) 3229 0800.
Peter Bond
Chief Executive Office
28 March 2008

Namrog

From InvestorLINC Mar 09 Issue 11 under the heading-

Smart improvements for Chinchilla GTL success

"Substantial reliability has been built into the GTL process over the past quarter. The gas cleaning facilities that remove contaminants
such as sulphur, mercury and arsenic were demonstrated to function according to the design intent during extended performance
runs. The management of sulphur, a key aspect for the downstream
Fischer-Tropsch (FT) synthetic fuels process, progressed well, with good improvements achieved in the analysis and interpretation of results.
Consistent supply of synthesis gas at contaminant levels far below the design
requirement, were also achieved.
Through several modifications to the feed compressor and auxiliary systems, compression of the synthesis gas to the required pressure of the FT reaction in the range of 25–30 bar was achieved. Modifications were also made
to the control system and the lubrification of this compressor. The lubrification was further changed to a synthetic oil system to eliminate
the ingress of sulphurous components that would poison the FT catalyst.
Prior to reacting synthesis gas to syncrude on the cobalt catalyst, the catalyst needs to be activated. This is achieved by reducing
the surface of the catalyst from its inactive, oxidised state to its active state through reaction with hydrogen at high temperature.
Improvements to the temperature management systems were implemented to ensure a reduction takes place to the fullest extent to ensure optimum synthesis gas conversion. This included an upgrade of the electrical heaters
and improved insulation of the reactor and associated piping. The low pressure reduction compressor operation was also improved to reduce ingress of oxygen and removal of water from the process stream, both preventing full
reduction of the catalyst.
The FT reactor, steam generation and downstream syncrude handling equipment have also been improved in terms of process control and operability. Additional sophistication was built into the reactor temperature
measurement system. In conjunction with our core catalyst supplier, Süd-Chemie, testing and optimisation of the catalyst reduction and operation parameters of the FT catalyst continues. This work paves the way for
additional catalyst performance testing in terms of optimised conversion and desired syncrude components. A solid relationship continues between the two parties as test work moves into the reliability testing phases.
Towards commercialisation
The operation of the demonstration plant in Chinchilla is used primarily to validate our technology as we move towards commercialisation of the UCG and GTL processes. Our vision for UCG to GTL will be a world-first commercial achievement. The Chinchilla demonstration facility is Linc Energy’s
‘technology hub’, providing critical input to the conceptual design of the commercial facility."

While they haven't quantified the conversion of GTL in this current statement, they have previously stated that they can produce 1.5 barrels of diesel from a ton of coal. While the above information is not headline grabbing, it is nevertheless all good news.

Disclosure- I am a long term holder.

Link to InvestorLINC No 11- http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/investor-linc-issue-11.pdf

Thanks Mickel and Select for posting up the latest announcements.

Not having a go at anyone, but there is a lot of useless technical information there, that I would say is over the heads of about 95 % of linc investors, mine included.
Why can't they state in plain simple english, how much diesel is being produced on average daily.
That's no big ask, very simple really.
From memory, and I might have to be corrected here, the expectation was that the demo plant would produce 8 barrels of diesel per day, if they could even produce half that, it's something to build on, and would give some confidence, that they are at least on the right track, but the silence on this front is deafening, or maybe it's just starting to work, could be why the sp has been rising, though that is more than likely connected to market sentiment, possible theresa deal, than diesel production....... though if you read between the lines, looks like the theresa deal is anything but resolved.

I always believed liquids production, was what set linc appart, reducing our reliance on foreign oil, after all, australia hardly lacks the resources needed for electric power generation, even clean and green if it wanted to.

Guess we will have to wait until monday, for answers.

In the mean time if it's of any interest, chart pattern says ,we should get a big lift next week, but not before few days down .

My Oppinion only and dyodd.

Re Joe.

isn't csg a methane ... most lpg gas have other gases in its constitution that help create more heat than just methane but even these extra gases arnt good enough in lpg to run anything but cars... ie trucks are gutless running on lpg.

i don't see the potential of diesel csg, sounds nice but when it comes down to its use it wont work for the majority of diesel engines , methane has even less power than lpg gases.

another point is csg will not pay the same as petroleum based gas for the above reasons i have already mentioned, lower efficiency.

cwamit??

Um, you might need to read into this a bit further. The LNC method does not produce "diesel gas" or "csg - methane"

It produces a LIQUID which is of a higher quality than diesel which can be used directly in diesel engines producing a similar effect to diesel (ie power/performance/efficiency) but with lower sulphur etc emissions.

On another note, nice to see a spike in the price of oil/gold, reduction in the USD on the announcement last night by the FED that they are printing another trillion dollars. Should put a rocket under the oil price for the rest of the week?

I would assume with a reduction in the USD, a higher oil price, the price of gas in America should rise pretty soon. All those Americans with empty fuel tanks should rush out to the Mobil & fill up cheap while they still can!! (reducing inventories??)

Any views on this hypothesis?

From thebull.com.au

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles_detail.php?id=1170

The guy doesn't know why he chose LNC shares to win the tipping comp

Why doesn't he read the announcements.

By the way PB better make that announcment soon. He seems to like getting peoples hopes up and then disappointing.

He would've made a good propaganda minister in Nazi Germany - Sorry if I offended anyone!

I'm nearly wetting myself today in anticipation of some ink hitting a contract somewhere in China. I'm really hoping announcement is made before the weekend so I can celebrate tonight!!

But, Alas, Mr Market is telling me otherwise today. Some large sell orders coming in. Is this, again, short sellers? Or longer term holders with dejavu of last announcement dates??

I agree with earlier posting, that we are likely to hear on either 23rd March if positive announcement, or a few days later if not.

Here's hoping

Originally posted by Glads262

"...I agree with earlier posting, that we are likely to hear on either 23rd March if positive announcement, or a few days later if not.

Here's hoping"

Click to expand...

Glads, Previous LNC announcement indicated that market release would come no later than 23 March 2009. My tip is that market release re Theresa Coal Sale will happen after market tonight so there is plenty of time for people to absorb the added value to the company over this weekend before she opens up over $3 on Monday morning. (Okay, so I'm an optimist)

There will also be an announcement out shortly regarding the progress of their GTL technology.

Well judging by the 360,000 odd share buy order put in at the end of trading today someone is confident of a good result.

Or perhaps they were covering some short selling

Isn't waiting wonderfull.........