LNC - Linc Energy

[Mickel]

It was fairly obvious that this thing was ripe for a quick trade as of late yesterday, after it created a double intraday bottom at 1.50 on fri & mon. I was a little greedy and missed an entry at 1.53 yesterday, and even fell half a cent short in the auction, but bought on open today @ 1.60. As usual, sold a little early @ 1.80, but a 12.5% gain in a few hours was too good to pass up. My pain of missing the top was shortlived after having today traded SGX 4 times intraday and NXS twice for a 100% strike rate!!

I thought $1.64 was a good price on 24/12 as I had a gut feeling that 1.60 to 1.50 would be the bottom and so I topped up again.

Great to see the S/P keep going up today- currently up $0 .24 to $2.11

I think the S/P overreacted to the fall in oil prices and now that they have turned around the S/P is rocketing back up. Long may it continue !

I'm in for the long haul and will think in a few year's time that they were a steal at $1.64

 

[grace]

I thought $1.64 was a good price on 24/12 as I had a gut feeling that 1.60 to 1.50 would be the bottom and so I topped up again.

Great to see the S/P keep going up today- currently up $0 .24 to $2.11

I think the S/P overreacted to the fall in oil prices and now that they have turned around the S/P is rocketing back up. Long may it continue !

I'm in for the long haul and will think in a few year's time that they were a steal at $1.64

Mickel your gut feeling is better than mine. I sold some more off yesterday given my thoughts on the lag in sale of Theresa. I thought the market would get bored waiting.

Also thought the rise might be due to index funds readjusting at year end. Time will tell....

 

[Mickel]

Mickel your gut feeling is better than mine. I sold some more off yesterday given my thoughts on the lag in sale of Theresa. I thought the market would get bored waiting.

Also thought the rise might be due to index funds readjusting at year end. Time will tell....

Grace, I think you're right about the index funds. I'd like to see oil stabilise around USD 50, and then we may see a further rise in LNC, even though they're 2-3 years from commercial production.

And bring on the Theresa sale for a real lift in the S/P.

 

[jast28]

Late in September, LNC share price was about $5, but has dropped since in sympathy with the general market. Now the share price stands at $1.99, still in a down turn.

I can see a few positive pointers to point to a rise in the share price.

• Linc Energy and BP Australia agreed to extend a Memorandum of Understanding to negotiate the supply of Ultra-Clean Diesel.
• Linc Energy has just signed a multi-million dollar power deal with Vietnam, which could see up to 6 million homes in Vietnam with power generated from Underground Coal Gasification.
• Recently Linc Energy also announced that it has reached a Memorandum of Understanding with the Huadian Coal Industry group from China.
• Linc Energy would also like to announce that it has secured AU$36 million financing by way of fully underwritten Convertible Notes arranged by BBY Limited. Not easily achieved in these days of tight finance.
• Emerald (Teresa) coal sale negotiations progressing very well with a deposit expected to be paid within 6 to 8 weeks.

There are risks of course. But I think Linc Energy is still one of the best buys on the ASX right now. This is a company that continues to advance towards commercial production.
I believe we should place LNC in our watch list and monitor it daily. Watch for increasing volume together with a price rise. If it then fits in with your trading plan, follow your trading plan.

Note: I am holding LNC. Information above is INFORMATION only. Please seek professional advice before making any financial decisions.

 

[Mickel]

LNC up for 3rd day straight along with oil prices.

Currently $2.20 (up 3c) after high of $2.25 earlier today.

 

[Goldmann]

Peter Bond stated that he expects the SP to head back to around $4 when and if this sale is finalised in the short term. In this market I think he is too optimistic for that to happen.

Regards CB

Starting to think Peter Bond is the super optimist... needs to sort out this teresa sale asap, or the SP could bottom out under a dollar... 6 weeks is still a long way away...

 

[ColB]

Originally posted by Goldman:

Starting to think Peter Bond is the super optimist... needs to sort out this teresa sale asap, or the SP could bottom out under a dollar... 6 weeks is still a long way away...

Goldy, Chart is very bearish and this one may test its recent lows of $1.50 tomorrow unless the Dow Jones has a good day overnight.

It shouldn't make any difference fundamentally but a little postive sentiment may allow it to climb a little before again getting sold down.

Prediction for tomorrow: (Subject to any LNC ASX announcement)

Open 1.69
High 1.77
Low 1.57

 

[Mickel]

Goldy, Chart is very bearish and this one may test its recent lows of $1.50 tomorrow unless the Dow Jones has a good day overnight.

It shouldn't make any difference fundamentally but a little postive sentiment may allow it to climb a little before again getting sold down.

Prediction for tomorrow: (Subject to any LNC ASX announcement)

Open 1.69
High 1.77
Low 1.57

Col, you could well be on the money but I predict that, if the oil price moves up $2 or more, LNC S/P will finish in the black. The S/P has mirrored the rise and fall in the oil price over the last 8 trading days.

 

[maala]

Has anyone else seen any news stating that Xinwen has just planned to raise 800 million Yuan ( 170 mill AUD) by issuing bonds? I read a post elsewhere but can't find anything to verify this.

 

[ColB]

Originally posted by Maala

Has anyone else seen any news stating that Xinwen has just planned to raise 800 million Yuan ( 170 mill AUD) by issuing bonds? I read a post elsewhere but can't find anything to verify this.

Maala the only reference I can find to your news is at HotCopper and no where else at this stage so the authenticity of it may be in question.

Here's the link if you want to read it....

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_single50.asp?fid=1&tid=813237&msgid=4502816



If they had raised those sort of funds for the Teresa acquisition I would have thought LNC would release it ASAP.

 

[maala]

Hi ColB,

Thanks for that, I read it on Hot copper as well and to be honest I have my doubts. The link posted there took me to the Chinese version of the wall street journal, but couldn't find any references in the main wall street journal web site or the bloomberg.

I guess we'll just have to sweat bullets for a little longer

Cheers
M

 

[Redwings]

Doubt that there will be any significant news from China anytime this week or the week after. They will all be in Chinese New Year mode (CNY on 26 Jan) and traditionally, business is never done for that for the week.

Just my

 

[9405]

Has anyone heard the news about Linc making half their Drilling Team redundant as well as others within the head office. Things mustn't be looking too good for the sale, otherwise you would expect they would keep them a little longer. I'm not too sure where they can go from here with no form of income and confidence dropping.

 

[grace]

Has anyone heard the news about Linc making half their Drilling Team redundant as well as others within the head office. Things mustn't be looking too good for the sale, otherwise you would expect they would keep them a little longer. I'm not too sure where they can go from here with no form of income and confidence dropping.

Per rules on this forum, you need to back up that sort of statement with a link on where you got it from. The mods will be after you otherwise, and we don't want to end up like HotCopper!

 

[ColB]

Originally posted by 9405:

Has anyone heard the news about Linc making half their Drilling Team redundant as well as others within the head office. Things mustn't be looking too good for the sale, otherwise you would expect they would keep them a little longer. I'm not too sure where they can go from here with no form of income and confidence dropping.

9405, a few google checks don't highlight any reference to your assertion that Linc are cutting staff numbers. If they were, would they be any different to Rio Tinto or any other company that are being affected by a downturn in world markets and laying off staff. It doesn't mean they are going to dissapear off the face of the earth.

As for the Teresa sale, it will happen, but Linc may not get as much money as originally anticipated for the sale.

As for no income and 'confidence dropping' I would just like to let you know that anyone who has a genuine interest in Linc's future know's that they will not generate any income for at least 12 months until one of their first gas to liquids plants is up and running.

If you have no confidence in Linc just put a little thought to where they may be in a couple of years, with Joint ventures in Vietnam, China, USA and their plans for multiple GTL plants on their Sapex holdings in South Australia.

 

[Goldmann]

Also - they were continuing to drill the Teresa tenements up until the final sale goes through... this could be taken as a sign the sale is going through, hence no further reason to further define that resource?

share price hammered today.

 

[Goldmann]

Hi ColB,

Thanks for that, I read it on Hot copper as well and to be honest I have my doubts. The link posted there took me to the Chinese version of the wall street journal, but couldn't find any references in the main wall street journal web site or the bloomberg.

I guess we'll just have to sweat bullets for a little longer

Cheers
M

Look what i just found: http://en.sxcoal.com/NewsDetail.aspx?cateID=167&id=20062


Xinwen Mining to issue financing bills Wednesday, January 14, 2009


You have item(s) left to view for this trial.
Xinwen Mining Group Co Ltd will issue 800 million yuan short-term financing bills with a maturity of 365 days on the interbank market on Jan. 15, according to China Knowledge.

The short-term financing bills will be issued at face value and the coupon rate will be determined during the process of book building.

Huaxia Bank has been assigned as major underwriter for the issuance.

Proceeds from the issuance will be used to replenish working capital and repay bank loans, the company announced in a statement.

Xinwen Mining Group Co., Ltd, located within the territory of East China's Shandong Province, is one of China's large coal enterprises, with above 15 million tonnes of production capacity annually.

China Knowledge (need subscription for full article):

http://www.chinaknowledge.com/Newswires/News_Detail.aspx?type=1&NewsID=20482

---- so now we have Linc going and getting some bank funds up their sleeve - and Xinwen doing the same...???

 

[Mickel]

LNC hovering around $1.60 after an earlier $1.58 low. For those who believe in the Linc story (I am one) this is a very attractive price.

 

[prawn_86]

LNC hovering around $1.60 after an earlier $1.58 low. For those who believe in the Linc story (I am one) this is a very attractive price.

Why is it an attractive price? Please provide some form of analysis otherwise the post will be removed.

Thanks

Prawn

 

[ColB]

Originally posted by Prawn:

Why is it an attractive price? Please provide some form of analysis otherwise the post will be removed.

I'll try on Mickel's behalf Prawn.

LNC has in the past month been sold down to a low of $1.50 before closing above $1.60 on both occasions. It has 'HAD' strong support at that level.

Fundamentals aside, its closing price of $1.60 today could be attractive to even a technical trader.

A bad day tomorrow however may well test those lows.

Let's hope for a good day, we're due one!