LNC - Linc Energy

grace · 5 September 2008

ColB said:
I've broken all the rules in this one. (80% of my portfolio) Have accumulated heaps over the months and sold just under half of my holding today (60,000 shares) to take some profit. Like many here, we have been through a very choppy ride testing those stomach muscles out on several occasions.

I'm hanging on to the rest of my parcel for the commisioning of liquids and all those other deals (existing MOU's) that Bondy will do with Vietnam, China, India the US and who knows who else.

Thanks for the tip Grace! Col B

Well done Col - 80% of your portfolio hey.......well done!

Actually, I'm thinking of topping up again on my holding. I just can't think of a good reason why I should sell it, so I'm not going to. It is No 1 too in my portfolio (just slips in above my BHP holding), although I have some 30 or 40 stocks, so it's probably only about 10%. Still, have to be happy with that.

michael_selway · 5 September 2008

grace said:
Well done Col - 80% of your portfolio hey.......well done!

Actually, I'm thinking of topping up again on my holding. I just can't think of a good reason why I should sell it, so I'm not going to. It is No 1 too in my portfolio (just slips in above my BHP holding), although I have some 30 or 40 stocks, so it's probably only about 10%. Still, have to be happy with that.

hehe yeah its all about the raw coal, they didnt want the CTL at all

Date: 8/8/2008
Author: Andrew Fraser
Source: The Australian --- Page: 23
Australian-listed Linc Energy is a proponent of coal gasification technology inQueensland. However, this method has come under a cloud after the StateGovernment appeared to favour the rival coalbed methane sector instead. Minesand Energy Minister Geoff Wilson has had to retract an earlier statement inwhich a three-year ban on the granting of any licences for coal gasification wasmentioned. Linc's stock still fell $A0.45 on 7 August 2008 to close at$A2.98. It is also involved in a legal case with coalbed methane companyQueensland Gas over access to land in the Surat Basin

thanks

MS

ColB · 5 September 2008

hehe yeah its all about the raw coal, they didnt want the CTL at all

Mike, LINC always stated that the Coal tenement purchase was solely to prove up and onsell to fund their 20,000 barrell GTL Plant at Chinchilla. I'm assuming your comment is tongue in cheek??

What I'd be interested to know is with the merger with SAPEX and acquiring the huge Arckaringa Basin reserves that come with it I assume they will one day establish a GTL Plant there as well. The potential of this company in terms of expansion appears promising to say the least.

We just have to wait and see that the GTL technology actually works and surely this one will go beyond 5 bucks. Good luck to all.

mexican · 5 September 2008

Not to sure what your are on about as well MS.
LNC have a MOU with Huadian Coal Industry Group in China.
The court battle over the tenements are not worth worrying about.

Pigsy · 5 September 2008

ColB said:
We just have to wait and see that the GTL technology actually works and surely this one will go beyond 5 bucks. Good luck to all.

You've got to wonder if $5 is only the start of this ride. It's been as high as $4.92 and now it in the ASX200 it's going to get a lot more attention. Remember this is only day 1 and the US market hasn't opened yet. It could just skyrocket given the market is in the doldrums.

Calliope · 6 September 2008

I had a look at today's papers to see what sort of spin they would put on the German Creek coalfield sale . It was all positive. I haven't seen the Fin Review. The field has not been fully explored but Bondy said it was an offer too good to be refused. It is a good thing that this man owns over half the company otherwise he would have been headhunted by the big boys long ago.

grace · 6 September 2008

Calliope said:
I had a look at today's papers to see what sort of spin they would put on the German Creek coalfield sale . It was all positive. I haven't seen the Fin Review. The field has not been fully explored but Bondy said it was an offer too good to be refused. It is a good thing that this man owns over half the company otherwise he would have been headhunted by the big boys long ago.

Front page of fin review so I hear. Don't you just love the headline in the Courier Mail today "$250 million - not bad for a days work hey?" with a mighty smile from the PB. Let's hope all of that money doesn't go to his head. It's only on paper as we all say anyway. Good coverage on ABC Southern Qld this morning as well.

grace · 6 September 2008

grace said:
BBY have put out a new report based on the merger with SXP. Looks like they like the idea. Target of $5.50 share based on DCF Valuation FY09 and $65/barrel price of oil.

Based on $130/barrel of oil, DCF Valuation is $12.10

Here is the link

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/analyst-14.pdf

Just looking back at some valuations here from BBY.

DCF at $65/barrel is $5.50. HOWEVER, this is with 70% debt, 30% equity through capital raising. WE DON'T HAVE TO DO THAT NOW.

So, we can assume some new valuations with some substancially higher price targets over the next 12 months. For a start, we will have $3.75 PER SHARE IN CASH! (ie $1.5bill/400 mill shares).

Can we just add $3.75 to $5.50 (base case at $65/barrel)
New target $9.25 (based on new tangible assets).

AND, if we use oil at US$100/barrel
DCF $9.03 + $3.75 cash per share
$12.78 share

Just throwing a few figures around. Can expect new broker targets out fairly soon I would think.

Plenty of growth in this one yet using my calculations!

namrog · 6 September 2008

Yep, and the great thing about linc, is that it is still in its infancy.

Great to see a plan comming together, step by step before our very eyes.

PB and management doing a great job, hope the success doesn't blow their heads off, and they continue to build Linc into a world force in energy.

The Dealer · 7 September 2008

Told you my price by Christmas!
Had all my posts taken off the message board too.
Put your valuation methods away. They will be wrong and you shocked.
Will be keeping my mouth shut from now on. Don't want to be seen ramping.

nrusky · 7 September 2008

Had to smile when I read the BBY report where they stated we have put a conservative valuation of $100 million on the coking coal deposits.

michael_selway · 7 September 2008

nrusky said:
Had to smile when I read the BBY report where they stated we have put a conservative valuation of $100 million on the coking coal deposits.

Hi do you have a link and page number etc?

thx

MS

http://news.smh.com.au/business/linc-looks-to-15b-china-coal-deal-20080905-4al6.html

michael_selway · 7 September 2008

mexican said:
Not to sure what your are on about as well MS.
LNC have a MOU with Huadian Coal Industry Group in China.
The court battle over the tenements are not worth worrying about.

Basically the Chinese just wanted to buy the potential coal deposits in QLD, they didnt care about the CTL crap that LNC is trying to do? Would that be reasonable or am I incorrect?

http://news.smh.com.au/business/linc-looks-to-15b-china-coal-deal-20080905-4al6.html

Linc chief executive Peter Bond said the conglomerate wanted the Queensland coking coal tenements as stock feed for its Chinese steel mills.

http://www.lincenergy.com.au/linc_energy_high.wmv

thx

MS

Calliope · 7 September 2008

I was impressed by the article on Peter Bond titled "Business Leader Q&A: Peter Bond from news.com.au on Sep 3.

www.lincenergy.com.au/pdf/coverage-158.jpg

What is particularly worth noting are his comments under the heading "Beating the big guys". I think he recognises how dangerous the politicians and their bureaucrats are to the aspirations of entrepeneurs in the business world.

If only we had politicians who could think outside the square like PB the future of a low emissions resources industry would be assured.

nrusky · 7 September 2008

michael_selway said:
Hi do you have a link and page number etc?

thx

MS

The link is in Graces thread from yesterday.

grace · 7 September 2008

The Dealer said:
Told you my price by Christmas!
Had all my posts taken off the message board too.
Put your valuation methods away. They will be wrong and you shocked.
Will be keeping my mouth shut from now on. Don't want to be seen ramping.

Hi Dealer, I would be interested in your thoughts.

Now that a few more boxes have been ticked, there is much lower risk on this stock, and hopefully even less in the coming week or two. What is your price by Christmas? All you need is a bit of backup and your post won't get wiped. Please post away, thanks.

luckypaul · 7 September 2008

Hi guys and girls, been following your threads for sometime now, although only just joined. I bought Linc 13 months ago at 64c and bought some more at $3.70 so very happy with recent move. This could be a great month ahead..and Grace's re-valuation is potentially very exciting.

Don't forget though - if the Sapex merger goes ahead there is potentially a need to build 2 commercial size plants, 1 in Chincilla and one on the Sapex tenements. Double the cost (which would eat into the Chinese cash) but twice the return...and in a different state should Queensland be scared/tardy to go ahead. Also, should proof of concept be confirmed soon, knowledge can be licenced/sold to China, Vietnam, Japan and all the other interested parties from overseas which may take the Russian example as proof enough on the Environmental front. They will want to build commercial plants in their own countries and further existing MOU's.

This is MASSIVE and it's going to be an exciting month. I only hope the worsening situation in the global markets will leave Linc well enough alone! Live Long and Prosper folks, LuckyPaul (Thailand)

Jimminy · 8 September 2008

what do you guys think of the new front fence along kummerows road?? Not a bad effort - laser makes a difference. Straight as an arrow.

Things looking good still.

Nice profit the last two trading days for us!!

Calliope · 8 September 2008

korrupt_1 said:
Hi calliope,

And where is all the way????

They get bought out by someone like BHP or WPL???

--------------------------------

When I first bought this stock the friend who recommended it to me remarked that one day it would be as big as Santos, which was my favoured resource stock at that time. I am staying until it is.

dale · 8 September 2008

grace said:
Just looking back at some valuations here from BBY.

DCF at $65/barrel is $5.50. HOWEVER, this is with 70% debt, 30% equity through capital raising. WE DON'T HAVE TO DO THAT NOW.

So, we can assume some new valuations with some substancially higher price targets over the next 12 months. For a start, we will have $3.75 PER SHARE IN CASH! (ie $1.5bill/400 mill shares).

Can we just add $3.75 to $5.50 (base case at $65/barrel)
New target $9.25 (based on new tangible assets).

AND, if we use oil at US$100/barrel
DCF $9.03 + $3.75 cash per share
$12.78 share

Just throwing a few figures around. Can expect new broker targets out fairly soon I would think.

Plenty of growth in this one yet using my calculations!

hey guys has anybody caught any new broker reports since these boys flogged $1.5b?

cheers
dale

LNC - Linc Energy

grace

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

ColB

mexican

Pigsy

Calliope

grace

grace

namrog

The Dealer

nrusky

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

michael_selway

Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

Calliope

nrusky

grace

luckypaul

Jimminy

Calliope

dale

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