Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LNC - Linc Energy

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LNC is getting creamed at the moment. Currently $1.04 and down with a bullet.

Certainly no vote of confidence from current shareholders. Perhaps also a last hit from short sellers as well ?

I think at $1 it has to be very underpriced - but I have been burnt too many times to want to play again.:2twocents

Mickel what are your thoughts ?
 
basilio said:
LNC is getting creamed at the moment. Currently $1.04 and down with a bullet.

Certainly no vote of confidence from current shareholders. Perhaps also a last hit from short sellers as well ?

I think at $1 it has to be very underpriced - but I have been burnt too many times to want to play again.:2twocents

Mickel what are your thoughts ?
Click to expand...

Hi Bas

I'm dirty on PB for taking this step at this critical time. I still believe in the LINC STORY and consider we are only now moving into the really exciting time with the following-
Shale Oil in the Arck
Power generation in Africa
Increase in Gulf Oil production
Proving up Umiat Oil
Russian JV with Roman's companies

Everything has been taking longer and there have been some setbacks which have impacted on cashflow. However, we could be only 2-4 months from proving a sizable oil field at Umiat and once proved, it could be sold for $$ in the order of a billion.

With the announcement, there has been quite a bit of shorting (eg 2.5M out of turnover of 7.4M last Fri). Also, it appears that various Funds will exit LNC before it delists from the ASX as they only invest on ASX stocks. Many individual investors also appear unhappy with the planned move and have exited. Another reason for exiting could be dilution with more new shares a distinct possibility.

I'm undecided with the merits of the move from ASX to SGX. It appears SGX have minimum buy orders of 1,000 shares which would severely restrict HF traders (a big plus) Also, I have heard reports that short selling is restricted on the SGX (another plus). There are reports that SGX rules are not as strict as the ASX and that the SGX is not as liquid as ASX but these are not "cut and dried".

If we get a big announcement re Arck Shale Oil JV before it delists it may be an appropriate time (and price) for some to exit. However, this is only a possibility in such a short time frame.

I'm still a holder but may reduce my holding.
 
I supported LNC from 2008 and at one stage my entire portfolio was in the share. I managed to make the right decision to go all in just before the final, final sale of the Teresa coal fields.

It looked good for a while and I felt very pleased with my brilliant investment accumen. :rolleyes: But as it meandered down hill I diversified into other shares .

But of course the last 3 years have not seen LNC take traction. I thought that the big run early this year was the real thing - but it doesn't look that good at the moment does it ?

I agree that there seems to be many valuable opportunities in the company. Hell the royalties on the Teresa coal deal alone are worth $100m + in a couple of years! But somehow it hasn't managed to kick a proper goal yet.

And the market is just not paying for promises any more .
 
basilio said:
I agree that there seems to be many valuable opportunities in the company. Hell the royalties on the Teresa coal deal alone are worth $100m + in a couple of years! But somehow it hasn't managed to kick a proper goal yet.
Click to expand...

Bas, For clarification I mention that the royalties will come from Adani's Carmichael tenement, not LNC's own Teresa tenement. The royalties are expected to start in 2017 and are projected to be $120M pa from 2023. Refer page 20 of 2013 Annual Report.

The current discounted value of the royalty stream has variously been estimated to be from around $300M to $1B (ie almost twice the current Market Cap of LNC). Whatever the current value, it is increasing monthly as Adani continue to meet their targets.
 
Mickel said:
I'm undecided with the merits of the move from ASX to SGX. It appears SGX have minimum buy orders of 1,000 shares which would severely restrict HF traders (a big plus) Also, I have heard reports that short selling is restricted on the SGX (another plus). There are reports that SGX rules are not as strict as the ASX and that the SGX is not as liquid as ASX but these are not "cut and dried".
Click to expand...

Why "heard reports" when you can google the facts for yourself?
http://www.sgx.com/wps/portal/sgxweb/home/faqs#Marking_of_SellOrders
 
Mickel said:
Bas, For clarification I mention that the royalties will come from Adani's Carmichael tenement, not LNC's own Teresa tenement. The royalties are expected to start in 2017 and are projected to be $120M pa from 2023. Refer page 20 of 2013 Annual Report.

The current discounted value of the royalty stream has variously been estimated to be from around $300M to $1B (ie almost twice the current Market Cap of LNC). Whatever the current value, it is increasing monthly as Adani continue to meet their targets.
Click to expand...

Oops ! Thanks. Got the projects mixed up.

But your comment does remind us that the Teresa coal mine is also an asset that is (theoritically ) becoming more proven
 
Wasn't it a shame I didn't jump into LNC at $1.06 when i thought it was way oversold ? Would have been up 20% by now :rolleyes:

____________________________________________________________________

Came across an interesting discussion on climate change in Alaska. In fact it directly affects LNC's Umiat drilling. I've quoted the introduction to the article but the rest is worth a read.

Alaska is world's laboratory for climate change research

Published: October 5, 2013
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Recent Headlines


y JOHN LIPPERT ”” Bloomberg News

When Jerry Otto started hunting for Alaska oil in 1980, his tractor-trailers barreled along ice roads that were up to 10 feet thick for 180 days every year.

Last winter, when he set out to drill for Australia's Linc Energy, regulators opened the roads for 126 days. The rest of the time, warm weather left the routes too mushy for vehicles, according to Bloomberg Markets magazine.

Then, in January, in a twist that embodies the perplexing reality of life and commerce amid a changing global climate, the temperature dropped suddenly to minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit, encasing drilling rig components in ice as Otto waited for roads to solidify to ship the gear to Linc sites.

After thawing the equipment with blowtorches, he discovered that the cold was reducing oil flowing into Linc's well. With 200 workers standing by, the company lost $300,000 a day with each delay, ending 2012 with a $61 million deficit.

Otto plans to try again in December, this time drilling sideways into a hill to get underneath 1,000 feet of permafrost and up into reservoirs he says hold 1.2 billion barrels of light, sweet crude.

"It's getting more unpredictable," said Otto, 59, who runs Linc's drilling rig in Umiat, 80 miles south of the Arctic Ocean, which is within the National Petroleum Reserve that President Warren G. Harding created in 1923 to guarantee oil for the Navy.

"We're in a race against Mother Nature. If we don't get cold weather early enough, or if it gets too warm too fast in the spring, it could stall the project."

FORCED ADAPTATION

Otto and others already braving such extremes are experiencing a new phenomenon: daily life navigating the risks and opportunities of climate change.

The Arctic has heated up twice as fast as the rest of the planet in the past three decades. By August 2013, sea ice had lost 76 percent of its volume compared to 1979, according to the University of Washington's Polar Ice Center.

And the three main gases blamed for global warming -- carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide -- are at their highest level in at least 800,000 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported Sept. 27. The United Nations group cited core samples taken from ice sheets.

On Alaska's Arctic coast, 30-foot-high cliffs that haven't budged since the last ice age are tumbling into the ocean overnight and village coastlines are eroding. Lightning-sparked forest fires have charred more than 1 million acres in five of the past 10 years. By midcentury, the average area burned by wildfires each year is likely to double, the EPA says.

Read more here: http://www.adn.com/2013/10/05/3111739/alaska-worlds-laboratory-for-climate.html#storylink=cpy
Click to expand...
 
LNC has run hard on the cumulative news of their increased oil production and revalued potential value in Wyoming EOR project.

Currently $1.74.

Good luck to all holders !!
 
What a sad, sorry end for the Australian investors in LNC.

Peter Bond put a huge emphasis on trying to bolster support from small investors through his quarterly newsletter. Always had a story from X or Y on their shareholding and how good it looked.

Now with the company being listed in Singapore and share transaction being unnecessary difficult and expensive the SP seems to be collapsing. I don't think this is Peters finest hour. (I finally sold out months ago ..)

On the other hand does anyone see a silver lining in this play ? Is there a realistic chance that the relisting will result in a sharp SP incresae and that new investors who buy in now will see a commensurate jump ?
Thoughts ?
 
Hi Guys,

Apologies for the noob question, but so what happens if you hold existing shares in LNC after Dec 6 (when they move to SGX)

Does it now mean that you will need to trade in Global Shares to sell / buy LNC?

Thanks!
 
StevieY said:
Hi Guys,

Apologies for the noob question, but so what happens if you hold existing shares in LNC after Dec 6 (when they move to SGX)

Does it now mean that you will need to trade in Global Shares to sell / buy LNC?

Thanks!
Click to expand...

Bump, i also would appropriate if someone could tell me what will happen to my shares, i am a very amateur investor and im currently using CommSec to buy and sell, will i have to do anything to still buy and sell this stock? Thankyou
 
meowmix said:
Bump, i also would appropriate if someone could tell me what will happen to my shares, i am a very amateur investor and im currently using CommSec to buy and sell, will i have to do anything to still buy and sell this stock? Thankyou
Click to expand...

Hey mate,

If you hold LNC shares atm which I assume you do the current events are as follows:

1. Last Friday - LNC Suspended trading on ASX. Which means they are still listed, just not trading.

2. Last Friday until now - LNC sent out notices (mail / email) to holders informing them what to do to enable them to trade on the SGX when they list.

3. Currently you have 2 options.
a) Do Nothing. You either continue holding and do nothing. The Australian share registry will send you a PHYSICAL HARD PAPER certificate of your holdings (shares). This is worth money = your share value. To trade this in the future you will need to find a broker that can/will trade paper certificates on the SGX.
Positives: easy for now, no need to setup an international trading account now, no fees now.
Negative: you need to find a broker to trade this in the future. I haven't done it before but i read it's not as simple as opening your Commsec account.

b) Open an International Trading account with a Broker that will trade your holdings on the SGX. LNC's email send they made agreements with several local brokers: CommSec, Philip..., .
CommSec international account open is probably the easiest for you. Call them up and they will assist you in opening one up. Theres monthly fees ($2/month or more) and $60/yr if you don't make a trade. (Values are approx).
Once you have an account setup, you need to send LNC the Nomination Form released on their website to tell them where to 'digitally send' your shares. This means they make a digital transfer to CommSec International (Pershing is the custodian) and CommSec International then link them up to your name and account.
THE DUE DATE TO SEND THE FORM IN IS THIS FRIDAY 22-NOV-13. Otherwise you default to Option A above.

Please just call CommSec. They will explain it all to you but do summaries the points above I just wrote into your own words to get a better understanding.

At the end of the day, if you are a long term trader happy to hold, then the physical share certificate isn't a big deal until you need to trade it.

Hope that helps, Ben.
 
On the last day of trading on Friday 38 million shares were moved. Final price for LNC was 99.5c.

If they really have a good future even in the short term I think those last shares will be a bargain when its relisted. :2twocents
 

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