Another shocking day for LNC. Currently 81.5And I thought at $1.50 it was waaaay under value.
Just. Doesn't. Make. Sense.
Any thoughts ?
(Former LNC holder.)
How did you value LNC?
LNC - Linc Energy
- Thread starter noirua
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How did you value LNC?
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PB Put this out to dispel the BHP speculation.
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-492.pdf
There is speculation on 2 different scenarios linked to LNC's discussions about buying the BHP mines, which are close to Teresa. Both have some credibility.
1. LNC could do a contra deal (in part) with the purchase of these mines linked to BHP becoming a JV partner in Arckaringa. This would negate any further Capital Expenditure by LNC.
2. LNC wants to combine the 2 BHP Billiton mines with Teresa because of the accompanying plant. If they were all packaged together, there may be little Capital Expenditure required to have them all producing, and combined there may be further economies of scale. They may then be onsold at a reasonable price in the short term.
These scenarios are compatible with LNC's announcement late yesterday -
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-492.pdf
1. LNC could do a contra deal (in part) with the purchase of these mines linked to BHP becoming a JV partner in Arckaringa. This would negate any further Capital Expenditure by LNC.
2. LNC wants to combine the 2 BHP Billiton mines with Teresa because of the accompanying plant. If they were all packaged together, there may be little Capital Expenditure required to have them all producing, and combined there may be further economies of scale. They may then be onsold at a reasonable price in the short term.
These scenarios are compatible with LNC's announcement late yesterday -
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-492.pdf
It is two weeks since that Bloomberg article. So if the quote from PB is correct (ie a few weeks) we should hear some good news about Arckaringa in the next week or two.
But the qualifications are-
1. PB's timelines are usually very fuzzy
2. It presumes that reducing the "talks" to one party will lead to an immediate announcement.
In any case, the S/P rise of 13c to $1.01 today is welcome and perhaps an indication that an announcement is not far away.
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Hey Mickel. Actually a nice little jump from the low 0.80c's this week.
It would be comforting to witness the SP increase based of fundamentals rather than speculation for a change.
However I'll not complain as there is some nice money to be made day trading.
Happy holidays to any Americans visiting the thread today :bier:
(LNC holder)
Good news (of a sort) for LNC.
Qld Govt has released and endorsed the final ISP Report on UCG and LNC has released a statement -
http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/legislation-pdf/isp-final-report-cs-review.pdf
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-496.pdf
These are the Recommendations-
Consequently, the ISP makes the following three (3) overarching recommendations.
Overarching recommendation 1.
The ISP recommends that the Queensland government permit Carbon Energy and Linc Energy to continue the current pilot trials with the sole, focused aim of examining in a comprehensive manner the assertion that the self-cleaning cavity approach advocated for decommissioning is environmentally safe.
Overarching recommendation 2.
The ISP recommends that a planning and action process be established to demonstrate decommissioning. Successful decommissioning needs to demonstrate the self-cleaning process and/or any necessary active treatment. To achieve this:
1. A comprehensive risk-based plan for decommissioning must be produced;
2. The Plan must take account of the fact that both companies now have connected cavities suitable for demonstration [Linc Energy is still gasifying];
3. The Plan must include at a minimum a conceptual model and relevant numerical models, a sampling and verification/validation strategy, and event-based milestones that, where possible, are time bound.
Two significant phases are recognised:
a. Sampling of the zone surrounding the cavity; and
b. Direct cavity access.
4. The government must establish a process by which the plans and their implementation are assessed for adequacy.
Overarching recommendation 3.
The ISP recommends that until decommissioning is demonstrated, as per Overarching Recommendation #2 no commercial facility should be commenced.
Specific Recommendations
Specific recommendation #1
The government together with the UCG industry and an independent advisory body, should develop guidelines and standards for site selection. The ISP recommends that site selection is a process that should be preceded and informed by appropriate geological surveys, hydrogeological modelling and an assessment of the community and environmental context. Such assessments must serve as Go / No Go gates for decision to develop or not any site for UCG operation, i.e., any limiting factor should signal No Go for the site.
Specific Recommendation #2
The ISP recommends that for each new panel, the UCG industry adopts a ‘commissioning’ approach rather than ‘start-up’ or ‘ignition’ regardless of size or multiplicity, to reduce the risks associated with this phase. Commissioning should involve world’s best practice for risk management in process industries including HAZOP, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, LOPA including all the controls to ensure that the inherent risks of UCG activities are minimised from the outset.
Specific Recommendation #3
If the UCG reaction has been extinguished, then restarting the panel should follow the pre defined risk protocols. If restart is deemed unacceptable the process should proceed directly to decommissioning and rehabilitation.
Specific Recommendation #4
No further panels should be ignited until the long term environmental safety provided by effective decommissioning is unambiguously demonstrated. Evidence of the effectiveness of decommissioning must be comprehensive.
Specific Recommendation #5
The companies should immediately propose, test and establish acceptable and agreed processes and outcomes for rehabilitation.
Specific Recommendation #6
The ISP recommends that any UCG operation should be licensed on the basis that it is responsible for maintaining and controlling all its operating conditions, taking into account the conditions of the site at the time of approval, including maintenance of groundwater pressure.
Specific Recommendation #7
The government should consider establishing two new entities to support a UCG industry at the level necessary to ensure its best chance to be environmentally, socially and economically viable.
1. Queensland UCG Independent Assessment, Evaluation and Advisory Group.
2. The Queensland UCG R&D Network.8
Specific Recommendation #8
A commercial operation should be designed from the outset on a foundation of well-established principles i.e. a risk-based approach from the outset in all phases of the life-cycle of multi-panel
Qld Govt has released and endorsed the final ISP Report on UCG and LNC has released a statement -
http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/legislation-pdf/isp-final-report-cs-review.pdf
http://www.lincenergy.com/data/asxpdf/ASX-LNC-496.pdf
These are the Recommendations-
Consequently, the ISP makes the following three (3) overarching recommendations.
Overarching recommendation 1.
The ISP recommends that the Queensland government permit Carbon Energy and Linc Energy to continue the current pilot trials with the sole, focused aim of examining in a comprehensive manner the assertion that the self-cleaning cavity approach advocated for decommissioning is environmentally safe.
Overarching recommendation 2.
The ISP recommends that a planning and action process be established to demonstrate decommissioning. Successful decommissioning needs to demonstrate the self-cleaning process and/or any necessary active treatment. To achieve this:
1. A comprehensive risk-based plan for decommissioning must be produced;
2. The Plan must take account of the fact that both companies now have connected cavities suitable for demonstration [Linc Energy is still gasifying];
3. The Plan must include at a minimum a conceptual model and relevant numerical models, a sampling and verification/validation strategy, and event-based milestones that, where possible, are time bound.
Two significant phases are recognised:
a. Sampling of the zone surrounding the cavity; and
b. Direct cavity access.
4. The government must establish a process by which the plans and their implementation are assessed for adequacy.
Overarching recommendation 3.
The ISP recommends that until decommissioning is demonstrated, as per Overarching Recommendation #2 no commercial facility should be commenced.
Specific Recommendations
Specific recommendation #1
The government together with the UCG industry and an independent advisory body, should develop guidelines and standards for site selection. The ISP recommends that site selection is a process that should be preceded and informed by appropriate geological surveys, hydrogeological modelling and an assessment of the community and environmental context. Such assessments must serve as Go / No Go gates for decision to develop or not any site for UCG operation, i.e., any limiting factor should signal No Go for the site.
Specific Recommendation #2
The ISP recommends that for each new panel, the UCG industry adopts a ‘commissioning’ approach rather than ‘start-up’ or ‘ignition’ regardless of size or multiplicity, to reduce the risks associated with this phase. Commissioning should involve world’s best practice for risk management in process industries including HAZOP, fault tree analysis, event tree analysis, LOPA including all the controls to ensure that the inherent risks of UCG activities are minimised from the outset.
Specific Recommendation #3
If the UCG reaction has been extinguished, then restarting the panel should follow the pre defined risk protocols. If restart is deemed unacceptable the process should proceed directly to decommissioning and rehabilitation.
Specific Recommendation #4
No further panels should be ignited until the long term environmental safety provided by effective decommissioning is unambiguously demonstrated. Evidence of the effectiveness of decommissioning must be comprehensive.
Specific Recommendation #5
The companies should immediately propose, test and establish acceptable and agreed processes and outcomes for rehabilitation.
Specific Recommendation #6
The ISP recommends that any UCG operation should be licensed on the basis that it is responsible for maintaining and controlling all its operating conditions, taking into account the conditions of the site at the time of approval, including maintenance of groundwater pressure.
Specific Recommendation #7
The government should consider establishing two new entities to support a UCG industry at the level necessary to ensure its best chance to be environmentally, socially and economically viable.
1. Queensland UCG Independent Assessment, Evaluation and Advisory Group.
2. The Queensland UCG R&D Network.8
Specific Recommendation #8
A commercial operation should be designed from the outset on a foundation of well-established principles i.e. a risk-based approach from the outset in all phases of the life-cycle of multi-panel
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Price just leaped up suddenly on the trendline break. Despite watching all day i couldn't bring myself to buy.
Gringotts, did you get on this morning ? Already up 8.5c to $1.215 today with 4/1 ratio of buyers to sellers.
The ship is fully loaded and leaving the jetty !!!
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Changed my mind and bought last night. Bit of luck eh?
tech/a
No Ordinary Duck
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/////////
Attachments
More good news this morning from LNC regarding Oil production in the USA -
"Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) is pleased to announce the recent drilling success and future drilling potential at Cedar Point Field in Galveston Bay, Texas.
To date we have completed one well with initial production rate of 1000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) (400 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) and 3.6 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMCF/D)). Linc Energy is currently drilling and completing two more wells at Cedar Point.
Further to this drilling success, Linc Energy has successfully utilised its recently reprocessed 3D seismic to develop multiple drilling opportunities in Cedar Point Field. The Company’s geoscientists were then able to correlate the seismic signatures to historical well data.
Linc Energy anticipates that these reservoirs will be capable of sustaining excellent production rates over several years in contrast to higher declines at Barbers Hill due to the ten-fold increase in the size of each completed reservoir. Historical average cumulative production per well in the Cedar Point field has been 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent."
This is very good news and bodes well for LNC meeting their target of 8,000 to 9,000 BOPD by 31 Dec 13, which in turn will greatly assist LNC fund their total operations and place them on a sounder financial footing.
The S/P initially rocketed to $1.60 and is currently up 14.5c at $1.52.
"Linc Energy Ltd (ASX: LNC) (OTCQX: LNCGY) is pleased to announce the recent drilling success and future drilling potential at Cedar Point Field in Galveston Bay, Texas.
To date we have completed one well with initial production rate of 1000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD) (400 barrels of oil per day (BOPD) and 3.6 million cubic feet of gas per day (MMCF/D)). Linc Energy is currently drilling and completing two more wells at Cedar Point.
Further to this drilling success, Linc Energy has successfully utilised its recently reprocessed 3D seismic to develop multiple drilling opportunities in Cedar Point Field. The Company’s geoscientists were then able to correlate the seismic signatures to historical well data.
Linc Energy anticipates that these reservoirs will be capable of sustaining excellent production rates over several years in contrast to higher declines at Barbers Hill due to the ten-fold increase in the size of each completed reservoir. Historical average cumulative production per well in the Cedar Point field has been 600,000 barrels of oil equivalent."
This is very good news and bodes well for LNC meeting their target of 8,000 to 9,000 BOPD by 31 Dec 13, which in turn will greatly assist LNC fund their total operations and place them on a sounder financial footing.
The S/P initially rocketed to $1.60 and is currently up 14.5c at $1.52.
Long set up. Watch for a breakout from resistance 1.79.
http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=lnc&c=ax
http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=lnc&c=ax
skc
Goldmember
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Who's manipulating LNC's share price?! It's down 26% today and down a whopping 200% since the start of the month.
This surely demands an ASIC investigation. It just doesn't make sense.
Oh wait a second... LNC actually went UP 26% today and UP 200% since start of the month.
All good. There's no manipulation. Fundamental rules!
P.S. All rights reserved to cry about manipulation when share price falls again.
This surely demands an ASIC investigation. It just doesn't make sense.
Oh wait a second... LNC actually went UP 26% today and UP 200% since start of the month.
All good. There's no manipulation. Fundamental rules!
P.S. All rights reserved to cry about manipulation when share price falls again.
While you were watching all that happen SKC, did you get on the train or did you just want to take the p##s out of those who whinge about market manipulation?
This has been a dog of a stock in terms of its volatility since the GFC.
After watching it fall from a high of $3.00 recently down to 78 cents I thought it was a good time to jump on board. $24,000 profit since 28 June 2013.
Should continue to rise especially with expected announcement of sale of Arkaringa assets.
Confirmation Summary As at Mon 15 Jul 2013 5:20 PM (Sydney time) No. Buy Confirmations No. Sell Confirmations Total Confirmations Value Buy Confirmations($) Value Sell Confirmations($) Total Value($) Total Brokerage ($) Total GST on Brokerage ($)
5 0 5 27,775.75 0.00 27,775.75 99.75 9.05
Confirmation Number Order Number Trade Date Buy/ Sell Security Units Average Price ($) Brokerage (inc GST.) Net Proceeds ($) Settlement Date Confirmation Status Download Confirmation
59521127 N68916983 8/07/2013 B LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO
8,200 1.025 19.95 8,424.95 11/07/2013 Confirmed Download
59522424 N68918073 8/07/2013 B LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO
5,000 1.010 19.95 5,069.95 11/07/2013 Confirmed Download
59475905 N68857918 3/07/2013 B LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO
11,800 0.845 19.95 9,990.95 8/07/2013 Confirmed Download
59438971 N68805646 28/06/2013 B LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO
2,500 0.840 19.95 2,119.95 3/07/2013 Confirmed Download
59389040 N68744799 25/06/2013 B LNC
LINC ENERGY LTD FPO
2,500 0.860 19.95 2,169.95 28/06/2013 Confirmed Download
Download CSV5 results found
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When it was 90cents couple of weeks/days ago should have jumped in with 200k, spewing.
skc
Goldmember
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The latter of course.
Well done to you. And exactly what I meant here...
If one thing is certain about LNC is that nothing is for certain...
One good thing about LNC at the moment that should bring 'some' stability to its share price is their success in conventional drilling for oil and the income stream that it will provide.
The companies potential is outstanding but the high cost of bringing their coal gasification and gas to liquid technology into production will be some time before any significant profits come into play.
Nothing is for certain as you point out SKC but I would not be surprised to see LNC back above $3.00 well before Xmas
