LNC - Linc Energy

[McLovin]

The ads on Sky Business are working then.

 

[basilio]

Can't resist a piece of trivia.

In just over 3 hours LNC has jumped 64c.

Two months ago it was valued at under 60c.

And this rocket is fueled by a shale oil play that is years away from starting and may not be economically viable.

Congratulations to all holders !!

 

[Mickel]

So true Bas.

However this was mainly because the Qld Govt restricted their operations to trials at Chinchilla. In the "wash up" this was both bad and good. Bad because it put a big dent in LNC's plans but good n that it allowed LNC to further refine their research and make the whole operation more economically viable.

One of the pending stories on LNC is whether (or not) the Qld Govt will finally allow commercial operations at Chinchilla after considering the "Expert Panel" report which they have had before Christmas.

One of the other big turning points for LNC in 2009 was the Chinese Company not going ahead with their MOU (signed in Sept 2008) to buy Teresa for $1,500 million in the wake of the GFC.

Perhaps the " $20 trillion " story is overstating the value but there is much more good news in the pipeline for LNC this year and they should go onward and upward (with a few dips) this year.

 

[notting]

This is a listed resource company that spends time advertising it's potential, even on TV!
They used flying pigs as drones to map the potential.
Still, it's a bulls domain so there's money to be made and you can't argue with that.
Especially if you sell.

 

[basilio]

Latest story is a "backtrack" from LNC on the estimated value of shale oil at Arkaringa. Peter Bond rightly points out you can't multiply a nominal 223 Billion Barrels Oil by $95 to get $20 trillion.

In fact the whole story highlights the cautious nature of the report. Its big and has potential but it has a long way to go.

So where did the $20 trillion headline come from? I'd be very interested to know. So I think should ASIC. Todays leap in price is way beyond a reasonable (or even big) response to the report. I suggest it was given a very big kick start with the $20trillion headline. And perhaps there are some particular people who have done very well with this almighty shove to the SP.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the day pans out and Friday when the dust settles and people have digested the story.

( IMO I think it was only worth the 15c rise from yesterday)

http://www.theage.com.au/business/2...y-check-for-linc-oil-find-20130124-2d8zf.html

 

[Mr Z]

Speaking technically there was always an air pocket between $2 and $3, the move was going to be relatively fast just due to the fact that once two dollars was overcome the next big batch of sellers where not to be found until the 2.86 to 3.10 range. The mid point of this resistance is ~ 2.98, mid points often end up being the focal number.

We have come too far too fast, to be healthy we need a decent correction, I thought that ~$2 should yield that but news said otherwise. Hopefully we correct and shake free the joy riders here, otherwise we need to top 3.10. If we do there is not a hell of a lot of potential selling to be seen between there and the old highs. We could melt up once again... news dependent.

This is all a little too quick for my taste, but hey... if we can hold it.

 

[notting]

I have heard a rumour that the US Fed is going to make a bid tomorrow to solve the US debt problem.
It truely is a miracle!

 

[Mr Z]

I have heard a rumour that the US Fed is going to make a bid tomorrow to solve the US debt problem.
It truely is a miracle!

Oh yeah, how? Trillion dollar coins? Do tell! or link... this could be a heck of a lot of fun The world is getting nuttier by the hour so why not roll out the next bit of insanity!

 

[notting]

insanity!

I was watching the CEO being interviewed on sky and the share price at the same time.
The stock seemed to be moving on every word, which was kind of strange given he was claiming that, "it wasn't just people who read todays article that were buying the stock, there was all kinds of instos getting into it!!!!"

 

[prawn_86]

I was watching the CEO being interviewed on sky and the share price at the same time.
The stock seemed to be moving on every word, which was kind of strange given he was claiming that, "it wasn't just people who read todays article that were buying the stock, there was all kinds of instos getting into it!!!!"

This is a CEO who appears in the ads his company run on TV to promote a product that they dont make a profit from... He is certainly good with the media but i am yet to be convinced if he can bring any of the projects to fruition

 

[Tyler Durden]

Make that new high of $2.83. A lazy 500%+ from the lows of Nov 2012.

I sold this morning at $2.44 thinking I was awesome

Just a random guess that this will come back 10%+ from this high in the next 2 days... just a gut feel and certainly not going to short this runaway bull.

There are always profit takers

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Make that new high of $2.83. A lazy 500%+ from the lows of Nov 2012.

I sold this morning at $2.44 thinking I was awesome

Just a random guess that this will come back 10%+ from this high in the next 2 days... just a gut feel and certainly not going to short this runaway bull.

I agree with Tyler.

It will probably come back.

Nice to have been in it in Nov 12.

Good pick for those who picked it.

I didn't though looked at it.

gg

 

[Mr Z]

There are always profit takers

We are about to run into a wall of sellers who are breaking even @ ~ $3

That will tip the balance in the near future

It will take some buying pressure to overcome easily.

Better if we correct and lose the joy riders, ~ $2 would not phase me at all.

 

[Tezzad]

It has been a stella run. However, i believe that the company has been under valued for quite some time. My rule of thumb, for a blue chip 3 times book value is trading at what it should be. The further down the food chain the lesser the multiple. With all the fingers in the pie that Linc has I think 2 times book value is fair (others may disagree). But at this point, increased oil production, JV's and partnerships in the pipeline, Royalties (pending although sometime down the track), Shale Oil Possibilities and exploration in Alaska. Who in there right mind can pinpoint a fair book value. We might find that when the dust settles the book value has increased and it is trading somewhere where it should be. Remember it has been here before and with considerably more smoke and mirrors. Runs are being score and goals are being kicked (just to string a few metaphors together). The surprise is that its been 18 weeks not 18 months.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

We are about to run into a wall of sellers who are breaking even @ ~ $3

That will tip the balance in the near future

It will take some buying pressure to overcome easily.

Better if we correct and lose the joy riders, ~ $2 would not phase me at all.

Agree Z.

A five year weekly chart shows resistance at $3.

I was going to post it earlier but thought it moot now after your incisive post.

Who knows it may shoot through it.

gg

 

[basilio]

Well they are bursting at the seams at the starting gate. Current predicted opening price is 2.88 up 21c !!

Still think the explosion over the shale oil story is a beat up but for the moment it has a life of its own.

___________________________________________________________________________________

Another significant announcement has come from AFC. This the fuel cell company that LNC has a 12% stake in and which could be a critical component of providing cheap non polluting electricity from UCG.

AFC announced that the electrode life on their cells is now over 6 months. This takes it into even more cost effective markets than the previous 3 month life. They are confident they can make 12 months which seems to be the point at which they cost compete with traditional coal fired power stations.

http://www.afcenergy.com/regulatory...s-fuel-cell-electrode-life-beyond-six-months/

 

[notting]

Went short at 2.92 Just for laughs
Stop now at 2.91!
Baught back between 2.70 and 2.73 cause I'm a pussy.

 

[Mr Z]

Technically speaking and if we close this far off the highs (2.76 ATM) this is looking like a near term top at 2.99. Close enough to the mid point of the resistance area to convince me that it will hold for a while. Daylight down to ~$2 where we will see buying again.... say 1.9x

JMO.

 

[Mr Z]

Agree Z.

A five year weekly chart shows resistance at $3.

I was going to post it earlier but thought it moot now after your incisive post.

Who knows it may shoot through it.

gg

Thanks.

Unfortunately we got here too quickly, it is/was a monty for a short. This will do more damage than if we corrected in a good fashion @ ~ $2. Sans more good news this will be an extended correction and consolidation IMO. The setup for second half 2013 could be worth keeping an eye on, for now we need to define a floor and it would be nice to see ~$2 hold.

JMO

 

[skc]

Went short at 2.92 Just for laughs
Stop now at 2.91!
Baught back between 2.70 and 2.73 cause I'm a pussy.

Nice trade.

I took the second elevator down... short at $2.64. Bought back half at $2.54 and now just trailing the stop at a 6c step.

It wopuldn't surprise me to see it down a good 8-12% from yesterday's close.