LNC - Linc Energy

EddieRobinson · 31 December 2012

Mickel said:
2012 started off with the S/P around $1.12 and looks like finishing the year marginally ahead of that figure.
Currently up 1.5c at $1.175

This despite the combined actions of the bot traders and short sellers driving the price down to 46c on 30 July 12.

Hopefully with much good news to come in early 2013 (GCL deal, Qld Govt decision on UCG, Poland, Africa, Gulf Coast oil production, Ukraine, AFC, etc, etc ) the S/P will rise to over $2 and perhaps much higher.

Happy and Prosperous New Year to all.

Happy to share that wish with you. HNY

Tezzad · 1 January 2013

Just come across your group of devoted holders. Been here at this price when i first joined, held my breath on the way down and swallowed all I could at the bottom. Telling everyone who would listen. (My brother and I are very close now) My stake is looking very healthy now, I have a lot of confidence in the stock but I am a little miffed at the actions of the big boys and their games. Is there any action that the company can take to ward off the short termer's ie Those who hold now until Andi start paying royalties get a piece, those who swap in and out and profit on the way down miss out. This would dry up the shorts. Am interested in everyone's thoughts?

Mickel · 2 January 2013

Tezzad said:
Is there any action that the company can take to ward off the short termer's ie Those who hold now until Andi start paying royalties get a piece, those who swap in and out and profit on the way down miss out. This would dry up the shorts. Am interested in everyone's thoughts?

Not sure I understand your question, Tezzad. Welcome to ASF, by the way. Adani won't be producing until late 2015 at the earliest, so holding until then is not what I'd call a "short termer".

There are 2 types of traders that are causing problems for LNC long term holders and many other stocks. One type are shorting the stock- ie borrowing stock and selling it to drive the price down and then buying it at or near the bottom.

The other type have the so called "super computers" linked to the ASX and can see buy and sell orders before anyone else (fractions of a second) and have complicated computer programs to buy and sell before anyone else. An Investment Bank could be part of both groups.

There has been discussion that the ASX is looking to restrict some activities by these groups (Alan Kohler has been advocating for the ASX to restrict some activities), but nothing is set in concrete yet.

As far as I'm aware, the company (LNC) can't restrict trading in their stock on market.

Let me know if this hasn't answered your question.

Tezzad · 2 January 2013

As far as I'm aware, the company (LNC) can't restrict trading in their stock on market.

I was thinking more along the lines of incentives for those share holders retaining their stock, knowing that when those royalties start flowing in there will be money in the kitty to pay them. Doesn't necessarily have to be dividends back to the shareholder, could be bonus shares, options that only become available after holding the stock for a certain period. If no one wants to sell because there is upside to holding, then it would be harder for the S/P to bounce around like it has been.

Mickel · 3 January 2013

Tezzad said:
I was thinking more along the lines of incentives for those share holders retaining their stock, knowing that when those royalties start flowing in there will be money in the kitty to pay them. Doesn't necessarily have to be dividends back to the shareholder, could be bonus shares, options that only become available after holding the stock for a certain period. If no one wants to sell because there is upside to holding, then it would be harder for the S/P to bounce around like it has been.

I'm aware that with an IPO you can include all manner of incentives to hold stock, including options, bonus shares etc, but I'm not aware that a company can do anything similar after the IPO (Initial Public Offering).

Another point is that LNC MAY sell the royalty stream either before production starts or shortly after to fund their other projects, so the funds to pay dividends from the royalty stream may not be there in the future.

Of course with so much potential good news that could be announced at any time, by not holding you expose yourself to missing the boat or buying in at a much higher price.

I think some who could have bought in around 60c to 80c as recently as last November (ie six weeks ago) but didn't, are already regretting it.

Jonathan111 · 7 January 2013

I wonder if we will hear any news regarding Velocys oxford catalysts testing soon as the 6 months testing would be complete.. Im sure we should hear about oil production targets and Umiat progress soon.

It seems the below audio was cut out from AGM 11.

I'm pretty excited with this new tie up with Linc although i am slightly disappointed that we have had no RNS confirming a commercial relationship between the two parties. I have taken a few notes from the presentation (starting at 1.06 & 47 secs) which can be found below.

Regarding a small scale GTL facitlity.......

1) Goal to produce 5000 modular GTL (up to 10 per site)
2) No-one else in this range (who could this be i wonder!)
3) Suitable for unlocking stranded coal & gas
4) Crack the CAPEX challenge by being modular & fabricated in Asia

They have embarked on a Pre-FEED study with an 'engineering contractor' in the US

Regarding the relationship with Velocys......

1) If i'm not mistaken there is a picture of a velocys FT reactor on this slide
2) The unit produces 6-7 times what they are currently producing on site
3) Unit procurred - delivery beginning 2012 followed by installation in Chinchilla Q2 2012
4) Foundation based on a modular format
5) Less than 2 years payback
6) OPEX around $30 a barrel
7) also targetting economic front end & back end complimentary additions

''made by a company called Velocys in US. We are working very closely with them and their partners as well"

''We intend to rapidly resolve this 5000 BPD facility starting right now. Infact it started a month ago!"
I'm an investor in all 3. LNC have an added bonus as they are ISAble if you are willing to dabble outside the LSE. The presentation as a whole is well worth watching as they are a fantastic company working with world leaders in the emerging cleantech industry. I'm glad to see that they are working with OCG - Linc are clearly impressed with the velocys reactor and OCG catalysts. Peter Bond talks about cracking the holy grail for energy and we are along for the ride.
Its a shame the market doesn't agree with us at the moment!

also mention afc after 1hr 10mins

also have a listen to this from around 1h05 onwards - Linc clearly excited about their use of Velocys system: http://www.brr.com.au/event/frame/89774

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn:OCG.L&thread=9021456&it=le

Tezzad · 8 January 2013

Nice announcement today, lets see if this can get us up through 1.30 and hold for a while.

Jonathan111 · 8 January 2013

Tezzad said:
Nice announcement today, lets see if this can get us up through 1.30 and hold for a while.

Yes punched through 130, im thinking $1.45 - 1.50..

Mickel · 8 January 2013

S/P finished on its high for the day at $1.42 up 14c on turnover of 8.1 M .

The announcement confirming LNC had reached their oil production target by 31 Dec was very good news and surprised many despite both PB and Scott Broussard confirming at the AGM that they would meet the target.

This now puts LNC on a firmer financial footing and hopefully lessens the chance that the shorters will run amuck with the S/P in the future.

There should be much more good news (GCL, Qld Govt decision, Umiat ,Poland, Africa, Ukraine etc) in the pipeline to keep the S/P heading north.

Hopefully the S/P surge will be more permanent this time.

Tezzad · 8 January 2013

If the shorter's make money on the way down does that mean they lose money on the way up if it holds?

Mickel · 8 January 2013

Tezzad said:
If the shorter's make money on the way down does that mean they lose money on the way up if it holds?

In a straight forward situation where the Shorter borrowers stock to sell (at say $1.00) and thens holds this position until he finally buys for $1.30 to repay the stock, then yes, he loses.

However I believe that most shorters have a more complicated strategy and may be able to profit from dips in the S/P over a period of time.

The bottom line is that, if there is little negative news on a stock, then the likelyhood of frequent and sometimes large dips in the S/P is low, and shorting is more risky for shorters.

Mickel · 9 January 2013

More joy for LNC holders today with the S/P moving higher . Currently up 10c at $1.52 on 6.3 M turnover.
Yesterday the S/P powered ahead in the last hour of trading. Will it do the same today ??

Hope so !

Good times with much more good news to come.

Mickel · 9 January 2013

Finished the day near the high of the day ($1.565) at $1.555 on turnover of 8.2 M .

Some techies are saying that $1.70 is easily attained in the short trem.

Tezzad · 9 January 2013

WOOOOW. Would like to see another announcement come out just to put some icing on the cake.

Mickel · 9 January 2013

Tezzad said:
WOOOOW. Would like to see another announcement come out just to put some icing on the cake.

Tezzad, there should be 3 or 4 positive announcements over the next 6 to 8 weeks.

This is a radio interview with Peter Bond today regarding the latest oil results. He says "exciting time for Company over next 2 months".

http://www.lincenergy.com/linc_energy_radio.php

Announcements regarding Umiat, Arckaringa, Teresa and possibly GCL, Poland, Africa, etc over the next 6-8 weeks should provide plenty of momentum for the S/P.
L/T Holder

Mickel · 10 January 2013

Great start again for LNC today. Currently up 9.5 c at $1.65 on turnover of 1.5M .
Outstanding buyers are 1.9 M against sellers of approx .5M .

I can't understand why more posters are not commenting on this surging stock.

The recent announcement regarding achieving oil production targets has put LNC on a more firmer fiscal position and is causing a re rating of the stock.

basilio · 10 January 2013

Well there is certainly one giant sized rocket under LNC at the moment !! With the confirmation of 6000bpd oil production the US one would think the financial issues are at bay.

Given all the other developments coming into play LNC looks very underpriced. It will be interesting to see when the next analysis comes out.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Heh Mickel . Just thinking the same thing. (and grinding my teeth because I didn't readjust my portfolio in December. Oh well at least what i have is doing well.)

Mickel · 10 January 2013

basilio said:
Heh Mickel . Just thinking the same thing. (and grinding my teeth because I didn't readjust my portfolio in December. Oh well at least what i have is doing well.)

Hi Bas

LNC was already a big part of my portfolio, but I bought some more at $0.80 on the way down. I now wish I had bought some more in December at around $0.80 .

Mickel · 10 January 2013

LNC now powering ahead. Up 21.5c to $1.77 on turnover of 6.6 M .

Some techies are saying $1.80 is the next resistance level.

WOW !! What a ride !

PS My only regret is that I didn't enter the Monthly competition again this month as I was away between Christmas and New Year. I was pipped at the post in Dec when LNC led for most of the month (gain of 69%).

basilio · 10 January 2013

Amazing how sentiment can change in few weeks. Also justifies Peter Bonds insistence on the basic value of LNC's assets and technology.

Now if the GCL deal comes through perhaps the $4.50 per share implied value of LNC shares will start to appear reasonable.

LNC - Linc Energy

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