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LET'S NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

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Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

enzo

Looking good.
It even looks like a cone.

I'll join on the other thread otherwise posts start going everywhere.

jog on
d998
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

ducati916 said:
I suppose the basic message to take away is that markets have a number of cycles and there are a number of strategies that maximise risk/reward ratios within those cycles.

Recognition that a cycle is becoming mature is all that is required, absolutely accurate timing is not a prerequisite. Accuracy in timing is difficult, and fraught with false positives.

jog on
d998
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Duc,

A very good message and one that people should try and understand, as we are not dealing in an area that can be considered an exact science.

Cheers.
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

ducati916 said:
Accuracy in timing is difficult, and fraught with false positives.
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duc, my philosophies are probably more fatalistic... maybe something like "timing has a lot to do with the outcome of a rain dance"? sorry if this clashes with the formulae or if seen as irreverent. ;)

PS I'll study some of the posts below before adding to this lol - plenty of homework there , thanks.

some comments from the peanut gallery (throw in some zen):-
I'm cashed up at moment, but want to get back in "at the bottom of the J curve" - lol - wish I had better foresight. I would have thought (pure zen this one) that the "foreseeable future" includes
a) (short term) a bit of a dip, whether this week or next
b) (long term) hard to see anyone losing with the blue chips - question is did you optimise your profit I guess by sitting out some of the snakes and hitting all the ladders.

options for the coming week:-
market starts up - then I've blown it - missed chance for short term gain, but with my limited bank I have little chance but to play safe

market starts down - ? - I'll probably wait out Monday if down - will it continue down? - too far into the "unforeseeable future". :2twocents
might even watch the Iran developments for a day or so.
(seriously uneducated comments here - just my plan for the week) :)
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

lesm said:
Duc,

A very good message and one that people should try and understand, as we are not dealing in an area that can be considered an exact science.

Cheers.
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"The head of the serpent is in continual motion while its body remains still."
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Rob_ee said:
Agree with you totaly Out To Soon re comments about Tech/a.

Are you a peanut or an owl ??? .... just curious in light of your post about the dumb brigade who execute stop losses.

It was Tech who instilled in me the need to bail at the 1st sign of trouble and be vigilant and firm in stop loss execution.

Watching his many examples of chart analysis is something to behold and embrace.. I greatly appreciate his generosity in sharing and even bothering

Rob
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I'm sure TechA & co may think my stop loss attitude puts me in the peanut gallery but I certainly spend a lot of time soaking up every tidbit of wisdom & testing it. Everyone says DYOR & that gos for such things as stop losses too. I'm probably trading in an unconventional manner compared to others so "horses for courses." :)
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

wayneL said:
Here is a video on gamma trading (similar to what we're talking about here) the only difference is that duc and I prefer to go out in expiry and be longer on vega (betting that volatility will increase)

http://www.options-university.com/Videos/GammaTrading/

It's a marketing video, but gives a good idea of the technique.
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Thanks for the link Wayne ............ very clear explanation for those interested ............. Thought the guy speaking was Danny Devito for a while :D .............

Agree with the "so much to learn" Canaussieuck ........... wish I'd started a bit younger ..........
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

tech/a said:
"The head of the serpent is in continual motion while its body remains still."
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Interesting quote and your point is?
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Out Too Soon said:
I'm sure TechA & co may think my stop loss attitude puts me in the peanut gallery but I certainly spend a lot of time soaking up every tidbit of wisdom & testing it. Everyone says DYOR & that gos for such things as stop losses too. I'm probably trading in an unconventional manner compared to others so "horses for courses." :)
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OTS,

At the end of the day you have to work out what works best for yourself and fits your personality or psyche. Each trader/investor has to work out what works for them.

If you only trade in a particular way because that is how others trade or to please others then you are not your own person, but just one of the sheep. One approach to developing an edge in trading is to trade differently to the masses. It easy to guess how the masses are trading and one the reasons why the professional traders can trigger stops or fade the average trader and their methods.

The term 'stop loss' may be misleading, but think of it in terms of minimising potential loss and from a risk management perspective.

There are people who trade without stop losses, but they understand how to manage risk and are extremely good at it. While they do not use a 'stop loss' they do know when to exit a particular trade.

Even if you do run without a traditional 'stop loss' you still need to consider when a trade is failing or at what time/point to exit or how long to hold.

There are many examples, such as HIH, Enron, or One Tel, where holding on in hope would have been disastrous.

Therefore, while you have a view on 'stop losses' you still need to be in control of your trading and not rely on hope that a trade will recover or stay clear of the lower end of the market and focus on sound/solid companies.

You can learn a lot from tech/a and others on the forum, thay have been there and done it, as well as experiencing ups and downs, including developing an understanding of what works and what does not work.

At the end of the day 'each to their own' or 'horses for courses'.

Cheers.
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

barney said:
Hi Duc, If I were to put the above scenario into laymans terms would this be close to the money?? ...............

We are having an each way bet on a football match, and betting on both teams at the same time ................ we are able to increase/decrease our bets as the match unfolds to increase our exposure to a positive outcome (we are hoping it is a high scoring/wide ranging scoreline) ............. and the best part is we don't have to wait until the game is finished to cash our bets in??

Therefore, the worst case scenario would be to initially pick the wrong team to win (trend changes), or for the game to be a long drawn out affair with very little range in the scoreline??

Am I on the right track, or am I missing something important? Cheers.
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Thanks Barney! :)
If you keep making posts like that I may start learning about options. I know I have to soon. :banghead:
ATM whenever I start reading about options the article/or whatever quickly becomes gobbledygook-technical terms even though the basic idea behind options is simple enough the detail is mind-mushing. :eek:
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Out Too Soon said:
Thanks Barney! :)
If you keep making posts like that I may start learning about options. I know I have to soon. :banghead:
ATM whenever I start reading about options the article/or whatever quickly becomes gobbledygook-technical terms even though the basic idea behind options is simple enough the detail is mind-mushing. :eek:
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Hi OTS, Don't worry, I'm in the same boat as you regarding options ......... I have a very basic grasp, but Duc's posts above prompted me to put it into language I could relate to ............ The link Wayne put up above also explains a bit more about the concept of trading stocks and options in opposite directions simultaneously for a possible net profit ........... I'm interested in most of this stuff, but don't think I'll be trading options until I work out how to trade shares more consistently :( Glad it made some sense to you as well ........ Cheers.
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

So Friday was seen by some on this thread as a good buy day.

How about today?
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

tech/a said:
"The head of the serpent is in continual motion while its body remains still."
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Past price action remains fixed.(price action over many months and tears)
However the NEAR term even up to months can remain dynamic as price action developes and eventually reveals market sentiment.

Its the ability to analyse the dynamic nature of stock/index/future which is the skill/science.
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Today is a good day for those who missed out last week, like myself, because I had no major positions and slept in......lol

But it could also be sign of things to come or just some volatility sideways.
 
Re: LETS NOT PANIC BUT PROFIT!!

Todays the first day I've bought anything since last weds selloff.
 
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