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LBL - Laserbond Limited
- Thread starter Spec-Invest
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oh no , a Roaring Kitty moment ( wink )
careful the regulators love lunching on minnows
careful the regulators love lunching on minnows
galumay
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LBL 12 month low today
Dormant bid for 5,000 hit @0.65!
Never expected that fill. A few more for the tucker bag lol
Held
Dormant bid for 5,000 hit @0.65!
Never expected that fill. A few more for the tucker bag lol
Held
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Having a muse on LBL while waiting for the late night dose of viagra to kick in. Undecided (about LBL) for the FBMF. Might add if it returns to 0.65, not sure. I hold LT about the same dollar amounts of LBL and SND and at current prices I'm interested in both. Maybe I should wait for the FY24 earnings reports. LBL reported it's annual last year on 24/08/2023. Annoyingly LBL doesn't give a heads up when its going to release its Annual.
Held
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Held
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Last edited:
galumay
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I will have to go thru LBL report in detail, but overall it is in line with my expectations for 2024. Bit of a drop in earnings and cash flow as the business adapts and adopts. May present an opportunity to add to my position as I expect the market will not like it. Wish more businesses presented 5 year tables like this,
galumay
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Its taking a while to digest the LBL results, so much of the explanation of the results is filled with bull**** Earnings, (EBITDA), so the commentary is really no help, its a matter of working thru the income statement, balance sheet and cash flow.
In the income we can see straight away that gross profit is pretty comparable to last FY, up about $1m, other income is similar, in terms of costs Admin is similar, D & A is similar, employment up $1m as flagged in commentary, finance costs up slightly, R&D up nearly $1m as flagged, other expences up a bit. So in total about $2m extra costs so the $1m extra gross profit delivered $1m less PBT.
So gross margins dropped a couple of %, net margins have dropped about 30%, impact of higher tax rate is nearly $400k, so offsetting for the extra tax earnings still would have dropped to $3.9m a drop of over 20% on PRP. I think management were stretching it by focussing on the increased tax rate, its the drop in margins/increase in costs that did the damage.
The cash flow statement reinforces this,
cash in up $2m, OCF down $1m, FCF down about $500k.
I expect a tough 2025, they are going to have more costs as they bed down the acquisition and look to grow the US business, margins will remain lower and profits & FCF will be impacted. I would prefer they deferred dividends until the business can afford them again, but we know that wont happen!
Given my entry price I am happy to be patient and accumulate if they drop enough. I still have confidence in management's ability to execute at this stage. Just have to keep a close eye on debt, margins and FCF over the next couple of years.
In the income we can see straight away that gross profit is pretty comparable to last FY, up about $1m, other income is similar, in terms of costs Admin is similar, D & A is similar, employment up $1m as flagged in commentary, finance costs up slightly, R&D up nearly $1m as flagged, other expences up a bit. So in total about $2m extra costs so the $1m extra gross profit delivered $1m less PBT.
So gross margins dropped a couple of %, net margins have dropped about 30%, impact of higher tax rate is nearly $400k, so offsetting for the extra tax earnings still would have dropped to $3.9m a drop of over 20% on PRP. I think management were stretching it by focussing on the increased tax rate, its the drop in margins/increase in costs that did the damage.
The cash flow statement reinforces this,
cash in up $2m, OCF down $1m, FCF down about $500k.
I expect a tough 2025, they are going to have more costs as they bed down the acquisition and look to grow the US business, margins will remain lower and profits & FCF will be impacted. I would prefer they deferred dividends until the business can afford them again, but we know that wont happen!
Given my entry price I am happy to be patient and accumulate if they drop enough. I still have confidence in management's ability to execute at this stage. Just have to keep a close eye on debt, margins and FCF over the next couple of years.
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I just put in a bid for 5,000 more @ 0.65
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Picked those up obviously after today's downdraft. I'm out of ideas for the chart now. My assumption has been a sideways consolidation with a lower support line at 0.65. The fact that it has broken that so substantially is a very bad look to me. I haven't looked back but I think we 'intrinsically' valued LBL considerably higher. Rather impatiently I've bid for 5,000 more @ 0.58, top of the queue, but it's with my eyes shut now.
Edit: yep, that bid @ 0.58 hit straightaway
Held
DAILY
Edit: yep, that bid @ 0.58 hit straightaway
Held
DAILY
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Actually, just went through my primitive valuing process and based on FY24 bottom line results alone the share price is about right now. Not that it won't likely overshoot any fair value number, given that's what commonly happens and the FY24 result has obviously disappointed someone(s) and LBL is illiquid.
But I get retained earnings of 0.015 after the dividend.
Meaning FY24 book value = 0.295 (FY23 = 0.28)
I get FY24 ROE of 10-11% for which I'd pay x 2 times if not applying some discount for safety.
2 x .295 = 0.59 without a dIscount for debt
Of course I'm counting on Laserbond succeeding in its growth plans, but that's just a punt really.
Also, I see around 15% ROE being a more normal return on equity historically.
But I get retained earnings of 0.015 after the dividend.
Meaning FY24 book value = 0.295 (FY23 = 0.28)
I get FY24 ROE of 10-11% for which I'd pay x 2 times if not applying some discount for safety.
2 x .295 = 0.59 without a dIscount for debt
Of course I'm counting on Laserbond succeeding in its growth plans, but that's just a punt really.
Also, I see around 15% ROE being a more normal return on equity historically.
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Passion and commitment, thanks Ian. Sitting back now and waiting for the market's reaction.
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Looking at the weekly chart has me holding off from any thoughts of buying for a while.
Charting is tenuous enough without low volume trading, but notwithstanding I'm thinking the break of the 0.65 level after the annual report was significant and the price is likely to exceed the last 'swing low' @ 0.54. Even much lower at a slow rate is conceivable to me, the more so if the general market doesn't hold up. Since, as galumay notes, 2005 could be tough for LBL, there might not be enough time for it to establish its growth projects before the share market gets hit by a big wave.
Held
Holding
WEEKLY chart neatly shows a retouch of prior support at 0.65 before falling back. The chosen moving averages have crossed and are falling. The biggest volume bars are negative.
Charting is tenuous enough without low volume trading, but notwithstanding I'm thinking the break of the 0.65 level after the annual report was significant and the price is likely to exceed the last 'swing low' @ 0.54. Even much lower at a slow rate is conceivable to me, the more so if the general market doesn't hold up. Since, as galumay notes, 2005 could be tough for LBL, there might not be enough time for it to establish its growth projects before the share market gets hit by a big wave.
Held
Holding
WEEKLY chart neatly shows a retouch of prior support at 0.65 before falling back. The chosen moving averages have crossed and are falling. The biggest volume bars are negative.
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Meant 2025
