LAU - Lindsay Australia

[The Triangle]

Annual numbers are out. Not too shabby,

Revenue up to $553 million (+25%)
EPS up to 6.4 cps
Dividend (unfranked) up to 1.8 cps (around a 50% payout ratio)
Net Assets up $14 million
Lease Liabilities down,
LT debt slightly up ($22 million)

And cashflow adjusted for trade receivables is considerably higher - Looks like they've got about $23+ million to collect on vs last year. Hopefully there aren't any bad debt issues here. This has been a tough year for the economy in general, so pretty happy to see results like this. They definitely could have paid a larger dividend so I do expect something nice come the half year results.

Won't be surprised to see this hit 20 year highs in the next few months.

 

[The Triangle]

Underlying EBITDA for FY22 was $60 million, from Friday's AGM slides, LAU is maintaining an optimistic guidance target of +15% growth to $68-$71 million in underlying EBITDA with one quarter now done and dusted. EBITDA is an accounting witchcraft number which tells us nothing in a vacuum - however since LAU has not made any significant changes or investments in the last few years, I think we can reasonably expect Interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to be very similar to previous years.

I was concerned that the AGM would have some bad news and the illiquid share price would get smashed, so I dumped 20% of my holding and depending on the SP over the next few weeks and months I may look to dump some more and end up with 50%. LAU has done what I wanted it to do and I'm happy to reduce my holding a little. Need the $$$ to lose on junior resources roulette.

 

[divs4ever]

Substantial Shareholders List​

NAME	SHARE HOLDING	SHARES HELD (%)
Washington H Soul Pattinson and Co Ltd	68,868,090	22.90%
Mizikovsky Group	49,509,410	16.50%

SOL has been reducing in recent months down to 19.10% ( according to Commsec )

am a bit of a fan of both major holders

my av. here is a little below 41 cents ( currently up 57% )

this is ' a bottom-drawer ' stock for me

but don't be complacent i see plenty of industry headwinds ( although i am liable to wait for sub 38 cents before CONSIDERING topping up )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“The recent departure of a major player in the refrigerated transport market [Scott's Refrigerated Logistics] combined with further industry consolidation has resulted in an unprecedented surge in demand for logistics services.”
- Market Statement, Lindsay Transport Australia Ltd

LAU has been traveling nicely for a while, and began to accelerate, picking up speed from mid last year. Not too many potholes ahead, I hope.

 

[The Triangle]

“The recent departure of a major player in the refrigerated transport market [Scott's Refrigerated Logistics] combined with further industry consolidation has resulted in an unprecedented surge in demand for logistics services.”
- Market Statement, Lindsay Transport Australia Ltd

LAU has been traveling nicely for a while, and began to accelerate, picking up speed from mid last year. Not too many potholes ahead, I hope.

View attachment 154527

Wish I had that 20% I dumped back ?. Looked at this all day with my finger on the sell button but thought I would stick it out a while longer. Again, generally thinly traded so one can only drip shares into the sell or buy orders.

Has to be good that diesel prices are down.

 

[DrBourse]

Wish I had that 20% I dumped back ?. Looked at this all day with my finger on the sell button but thought I would stick it out a while longer. Again, generally thinly traded so one can only drip shares into the sell or buy orders.

Has to be good that diesel prices are down.

Hi Triangle...... Some TA on LAU that may be of interest…….. Aug/Sept 2022 LAU had 2 Flag Formations and one Triangle Formation……. So far in Mar/Apr 2023 LAU has One Flag Formation and One Triangle Formation….. April’s CCI Double Bottom is also of interest….. So I wonder What’s next for LAU....
Hope you notice the Irony here...... The Triangle posts about LAU..... Now I'm posting abt Triangles on LAU....

Cheers....
DrB.

 

[noirua]

A robotic point of view: https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/transportation/asx-lau/lindsay-australia-shares
Website: https://www.lindsayaustralia.com.au/
March Presentation: https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/LAU/02642556.pdf

Live Charts:

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5ELAU&p=0&t=1

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5ELAU&p=4&t=1

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=staticchart&s=ASX%5ELAU&p=9&t=1

 

[The Triangle]

Hi Triangle...... Some TA on LAU that may be of interest…….. Aug/Sept 2022 LAU had 2 Flag Formations and one Triangle Formation……. So far in Mar/Apr 2023 LAU has One Flag Formation and One Triangle Formation….. April’s CCI Double Bottom is also of interest….. So I wonder What’s next for LAU....
Hope you notice the Irony here...... The Triangle posts about LAU..... Now I'm posting abt Triangles on LAU....
View attachment 155449

Cheers....
DrB.

Triangle + Triangle = Earnings upgrade. I dumped a few more shares this week. Will probably regret that sale as well in six months.

 

[galumay]

I suspect the opposite, @The Triangle, I think you will look back and think it was very good timing. All the short term impacts that have made what has always been a pretty crappy business, look marginally better are going to dry up and the price will move back to something nearer the value. When I look at the fundamental financials over the last 10 years, its very obvious how much of an outlier the last couple have been.

 

[The Triangle]

I suspect the opposite, @The Triangle, I think you will look back and think it was very good timing. All the short term impacts that have made what has always been a pretty crappy business, look marginally better are going to dry up and the price will move back to something nearer the value. When I look at the fundamental financials over the last 10 years, its very obvious how much of an outlier the last couple have been.

It's a concern that they can grow EBITDA by 30% organically via improvements in utilisation....

They mention acquisitions of gear as well and I suspect that's where cashflow will be going leaving investors disappointed in a future dividend.

Doubtful I'll hold past the FY results but I'll gamble a little while longer and probably drip sell shares.

 

[divs4ever]

rescued my investment cash ( plus a bit extra ) this month ( because i wanted to deploy some cash outside the market )

will most likely hold the rest long term , and don't foresee the share price dropping low enough to inspire me to buy more later

 

[The Triangle]

rescued my investment cash ( plus a bit extra ) this month ( because i wanted to deploy some cash outside the market )

will most likely hold the rest long term , and don't foresee the share price dropping low enough to inspire me to buy more later

I'm now down to half my original holding.

 

[UMike]

A lot of things looking good about these guys. Paying dividends 4/4/24

Bit worried about Debt to Equity @183.7%
Another I am looking into.

 

[The Triangle]

A lot of things looking good about these guys. Paying dividends 4/4/24

Bit worried about Debt to Equity @183.7%
Another I am looking into.

I think they are a takeover target for some private firm to strip/sell & lease/load up with debt and relist candidate - Will continue to hold these shares. As, I picked most of my holdings up in the 30 cent range a few years ago so I need to clean out my HPP to give losses to offset capital gains tax . It's frustrating to make decisions on investments based on taxation. Just isn't right.

I'm reasonably happy with their debt to equity ratio myself as I treat lease liabilities more favorable in debt to equity than I do actual debt from borrowings. Cashflow is still reasonable enough to cover leases and capex with scraps leftover for dividends. Also - they can do what every other ASX company does and load up with debt to pay unsustainable dividends for a few years and juice the SP until the eventual crash

 

[UMike]

Banged some in the Super.
Will Bang some more if the price drops again tomorrow.

Will sit on it and observe after Ex-Div date.

 

[divs4ever]

Lindsay Australia Limited FY2024

Trading Update

Lindsay Australia Limited (ASX: LAU) provides a trading update for the 2024 financial year (FY2024).

Lindsay expects underlying EBITDA to be between $88 million and $94 million.
Factors impacting second half trading are as follows:
• Lower horticultural volumes in seasonal products caused by significant and persistent wet weather.
Conditions impacted all Lindsay business units and products particularly North Queensland.
• Multiple rail disruptions, including a major 4 week east-west corridor outage commencing early March followed by subsequent disruptions in April.
• Disrupted freight flows and volumes impacting operational efficiency and utilisation.
Following the Easter period, Lindsay anticipated a rebound in volumes typical of post easter trading.
However, volumes remained subdued, still affected by soft demand and adverse weather conditions.
Despite these short-term challenges, the outlook remains positive within Lindsay’s market segments.
Favourable soil moisture profiles and water storage in key irrigation regions provides positive conditions for the horticultural sector going forward.
The refrigerated logistics sector will continue to be supported by increases in population and immigration growth, changing consumption habits and demand for efficient road and rail services, reflected in 2H2024 commercial freight volumes forecast to grow by approximately 6% compared with 2H2023.
We have continued to invest in our operations, network, and fleet throughout the year, adding additional capacity to support future growth.
A dedicated team has commenced an enterprise-wide transformation program aimed at increasing efficiency across the Group. Lindsay’s balance sheet remains resilient, with net leverage forecast to be below our internal target of less than 1.5 times.
This guidance is subject to variables outside of Lindsay’s control, which may further impact results.

Examples include, weather impacts and rail interruptions.

i hold LAU ( 'free-carried' )

still way above my top up target of sub 40 cents ( despite today's drop)

 

[peter2]

Shows the far reaching impact of severe weather events. The heavy rains in Qld not only flooded a few underground mines (29M) but cut roads and rail as we're now reading about in this LAU update.

I've been bullish on LAU for a while but price never seems to move as it's been in this current range for the last year.

Now that the share price is falling I'll stop monitoring it until it appears in one of my daily scans.

 

[finicky]

LAU @ 0.92

Bit interested by this but reluctant to buy anything lately. Besides which I suspect I have missed the low.
Courtesy excerpt from Market Matters morning report (not that I've asked)

Not Held

Lindsay Australia (LAU) 94.5c​

LAU is a ~$300m integrated transport, logistics, and rural supply company with an emphasis on food, including processing, services, fresh produce, agriculture and horticulture industries. FY24 was a challenging year, and while the value of food retail sales in Australia were up 2.8% in dollar terms, the volume of food sales declined 0.9%. Overlay that with inflationary pressures on the cost side, and it’s understandable the stock drifted back from $1.40 down under $1.

• We flag LAU today as a defensive logistics business, exposed to a defensive area of the market (food) that has found a good level of support in the last few months.

A recent report by CBA showed that housing costs had the greatest impact on the cost of living in FY24 (contributing 25% to CPI growth) followed by food (contributing 19% to CPI growth). As the RBA eventually cuts rates (our call is 1 cut this FY and more to follow), in part driven by lower inflation, this should underpin an uplift in retail sales volumes, including food.
Management are seeing this trend tentatively start to play out; commentary at their AGM was that the first four months of FY25 trading, grocery and commercial volumes are up 5%. Higher volumes drive higher earnings, and with the shares trading on an Est PE of 8x, yielding over 6% fully franked, LAU is a more defensive candidate for the Emerging Companies Portfolio, albeit on the smaller side.
MM likes LAU ~94c

LAST UPDATED 13/11/2024 09:06

 

[finicky]

While I won't be biting, the LAU chart looks kind of promising. I'm suspecting a double low might have formed with the bullish weekly hammer candle made at start of November at ~0.82 followed by an apparent confirmation candle with stronger positive volume. This would also roughly meet my target of ~80c from the larger scale double top formed over 2023.
The recent three years of ROE suggest it is worth more to me, albeit not the preceding years. Yield 5.5% ff. What turns me off is the high net gearing of the company and I imagine its higher than average sensitivity to the vigour of the general economy, about which I am not confident. Also no moat I suspect, other than brand and maybe network? Still prefer cash to most stocks, takes a lot to tempt me these days.

Not Held

WEEKLY

 

[divs4ever]

i am up about 110% on this ,
but i expect plenty of headwinds , supply issues , economic forecasts and other stuff to cloud the horizon here ,

but if i am correct that may mean an opportunity to increase the holding of LAU