Labor's carbon tax lie

[mexican]

GST revenue is another bonus for the gov with the carbon tax increasing electricity and anything else it increases!!!

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf: could you comment on this?

Fundamentally, there has been a lack of investment in power generation in recent years, particularly in Vic, SA and NSW.

Part of that comes down to the way the National Electricity Market works. In short, it's not really profitable to maintain the old 17% minimum margin above peak demand so as to ensure system reliability in the event of breakdowns etc. These days, the margins are lower - there's less room for something to go wrong.

With or without a carbon tax, it's only a matter of time before a large generating unit (500+ MW) goes down in the middle of Summer and the lights go out. Or, even worse, certain pieces of gas infrastructure go down and take with them a large and increasing amount of gas-fired power generation. To be honest, it's pure luck that it hasn't happened already.

So, problem number 1 is simply a lack of investment in a market that doesn't encourage the provision of a reliable supply. That electricity can't be stored, means that the market "signal" to invest is going to be ridiculously short to the point of not being a viable means of ensuring reliable supply.

Carbon tax? Nobody wants to build coal-fired generation in case there's a carbon tax. Nobody wants to build any other form of generation in case there isn't a carbon tax. End result - we build a few relatively inefficient and easy to move (offshore if necessary) open cycle gas turbines. They aren't that clean (50% more CO2 than an efficient gas-fired plant) and they're expensive to run. But they're low capital cost and that's the point - nobody is willing to make long term investments. Some of them are actually old plants relocated from overseas.

Solution? Either introduce a carbon tax with a rate that can't be changed (or where the changes are "set in stone" from day 1) for at least 30 years, or find a way to ensure that there is no such tax for at least the next 30 years (or ensure there will be compensation if there is). I doubt we'll see either outcome unfortunately, thus leaving us stuck with doing not much until electricity prices rise sufficiently that someone is willing to take the risk of investing in such an uncertain climate.

I should point out that the 30 years is a minimum, not an ideal. Most of the electricity we use today comes from plants conceived 1950's - 1970's and commissioned during the 60's - 90's. These are long life assets with minimum working lives of 30 years (which in some cases can be extended) and with construction taking up to a decade.

For some non-fossil fuel technologies the life is even longer and you need that long life for it to be viable economically. Hydro is the most extreme, but even things like solar panels should last 40 - 50 years in practice (wind turbines are an exception with a relatively shorter life expectancy).

The oldest coal-fired plant still running in Australia is 53 years, for gas it is 44 years and for hydro it is 97 years. Those figures are for "proper" power stations supplying the main grid as built by the former state utilities or their predecessors. There's plants that are even older in private use and in remote areas.

PS - a bit off topic, but the control panel in my avatar is from the 70's and is installed in that 97 year old hydro plant. Apart from controls, just about everything in that plant is original and it's generally described as a "working museum" more than anything else (though it does still generate just as much power as it did when new). For purely heritage preservation reasons, the recent new water pipeline was built the same as the old one using wood as the material - a bit unusual these days but it should last 60 years or so. By that time the machines will be almost 160 years old - and there's no reason why they shouldn't still be running like new if properly looked after.

My real point here is that the industry needs long term certainty...

 

[Julia]

Many thanks, Smurf.

 

[ghotib]

Smurf are you aware of any modelling or studies of how expensive and technically difficult it is to greatly increase small-scale distributed generation? Home solar is the extreme I guess, but I'm thinking more of things like the community-funded and owned Hepburn Wind, which is being taken as a prototype for two more windfarms I'm aware of. Solar and wind farms seem like a sensible way to generate their own power for many regional centres and small towns, as is using the roofs of big warehouse and factory buildings. Does it make sense to enable these distributed generators to use the grid as a huge storage unit, or to set up battery banks with them that the grid can draw on when necessary? What is thought to be a reasonable limit to their capacity, and is it economic or technical or both... or something else??

While I'm asking questions, and if you have time, what is the state of the grid? Is that as decayed as the generators and how do we know? How much redundancy does it have? Who looks after it? How's it paid for? How likely is an event like the American north east blackout?

The wild gyrations in NSW solar feed-in tariff schemes didn't only hurt home owners and the industry. Schools and community centres had also taken advantage of the 60cent scheme (which was always stupid, but a deal is a deal), and I heard of a 54-unit apartment complex whose body corporate took it up and would have been in significant financial trouble if the cancellation had gone ahead. Never mind 30 years of certainty - even 30 months would be nice

Incidentally, your avatar always makes me think of my visit in 1995 to the Apollo control room at Cape Kennedy. All those analog displays.

Ghoti

 

[Ruby]

I understand your point and in some cases it is true that elderly pensioners etc may benefit from this. However, it's not unusual to find elderly people with huge bills, likewise families with one parent at home............



My mother lives by herself. Electric cooking and hot water, reverse cycle A/C for heating supplemented by an old off-peak heater. Winter bills are around $600 and that's after the pensioner discount and before the 11% (!) rise that comes in at the end of June. The sad thing is, that $600 bill is nowhere near the upper end of what would be considered "normal" these days, indeed it's pretty good for an all-electric house.

Thanks Smurf, I had not thought of that aspect (and I should have.) I recall my parents installing reverse cycle AC several years ago - not so much to stay cool in summer as to keep warm in winter. And this is in Queensland. As my mother said at the time "Old bones are cold bones."

 

[Julia]

Had a tradesman here today who mentioned that his average quarterly electricity a/c is between $800 and $1000. He's running a pool but in addition uses the a/c to heat and cool the house 24 hours to 27 in winter, and down to 22 in summer.
They 'can't be bothered' hanging washing on the line so it all goes through the dryer.

He wants to heat the pool but 'doesn't like the look of the solar tubing on the roof', so will install a heat pump which will more than double the power bill. The solar costs almost nothing to run and on a sunny day is way more effective than a heat pump for pool heating.

Am I being unreasonable in thinking this is just mindless extravagance?

 

[drsmith]

Wayne swan looked very agitated last night when interrogated last night on Lateline by Ali Moore.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3238190.htm

No glasses in hand I hope.

I wouldn't like to be interrogated by Ali Moore. She does a good job.

 

[joea]

In the sugar industry, each mill has a generating plant to cover the mills operation, plus some excess capacity to export into the grid.
You may have heard or the word co - generation, which means storing excess bagasse and burning it off after the mill shutdown.

Now understand that the crushing season, covers the winter season, when extra loads occur down south.
Well the electricity suppliers would only pay 6 cents/kilowatt hr. while they charged 26cents for import.(this was some time back). The managers said it was not economical
to buy the more efficient but expensive turbines to allow co - generation.
So the mills installed ineffecient steam turbines, to burn the excess bagasse off instead, or the excess bagasse would becomes a handling problem.

An opportunity was missed to have extra capacity from the mills, because of greed of the electricity suppliers. Obviously in this case "they could not see the forrest for the trees". Looking back now they would have reversed that decision.

To make it more clear those turbines were purchased as the mill increased their crushing rate through the years.
Cheers

 

[Ruby]

Had a tradesman here today who mentioned that his average quarterly electricity a/c is between $800 and $1000. He's running a pool but in addition uses the a/c to heat and cool the house 24 hours to 27 in winter, and down to 22 in summer.
They 'can't be bothered' hanging washing on the line so it all goes through the dryer.

He wants to heat the pool but 'doesn't like the look of the solar tubing on the roof', so will install a heat pump which will more than double the power bill. The solar costs almost nothing to run and on a sunny day is way more effective than a heat pump for pool heating.

Am I being unreasonable in thinking this is just mindless extravagance?

No, I agree with you Julia.

 

[Logique]

Ruby is 'on fire' recently, and I agree with her.

I think the tradie meant 27C in summer and 22C in winter? I wouldn't mind 27C in summer, but 22C in winter is just too tropical. I mean seriously, put on a jumper.

And hello to the miners across there in the Pilbarra, working for the country, you'll be able to afford A/C.

 

[Logique]

This is where your tax dollars are going:

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/...g_solution_to_a_seeming_problem/#commentsmore
Andrew Bolt, Wednesday, June 08, 2011
"..Martin Feil describes an extraordinary bureaucracy that’s run out of work:
The Australian government’s Department of Climate Change is very large and top heavy.
There are four deputy secretaries and 13 first assistant secretaries on its organisation chart including a first assistant secretary (Barry Sterland) responsible for an Emissions Trading Division. Many much larger and older government departments can’t match that management structure.

Much of its purpose and its many of its functions have been mothballed by the government’s reversal on climate change and the insulation debacle. There is also a major organisation unit responsible for the Home Insulation Program headed by Bernadette Welch, a first assistant secretary.."

 

[mexican]

Wayne swan looked very agitated last night when interrogated last night on Lateline by Ali Moore.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3238190.htm

No glasses in hand I hope.

I wouldn't like to be interrogated by Ali Moore. She does a good job.

Yes agree Dr.Smith but I still think the reporters are not asking the real hard questions that would put them (Gillard and co) in a very awkward position.

 

[Ruby]

Ruby is 'on fire' recently...........

 

[Calliope]

They also promised us global warming. They lied.

 

[joea]

Wayne Swann gave us a snap shot of the carbon tax price muttering something about $20/tonne.
He must also know, that their program will cost $50/tonne plus. Because its in the model.

Anyway we have not got anything to worry about because the coalition will not be winning the next election. He also said that.

Its interesting to know large scale solar is approx. double the cost of wind power, which is treble the cost of coal fired generation.

I think gas will have to come into play very quickly.

I think the only thing we have to look forward to, is the state or origin series.
joea

 

[Calliope]

He will be an expert on pollution after 3 days in the box.:blaah:

AN environmental activist has locked himself inside a box at a New South Wales mine in a bid to disrupt coal production and attack efforts by resource giants to "dodge" a carbon tax.
Greenpeace activists locked a steel box onto a rail track servicing Mt Arthur Coal, BHP Billiton's largest Hunter Valley coal mine, at about 11.25am (AEST) today.
Once the box was secured and a coal train bound for Newcastle port was stopped, activist Erland Howden climbed inside and shut the lid.
He will remain in the box for three days as part of the protest.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/car...ox/story-e6frfm1i-1226071795958#ixzz1OfMVOfYO

 

[trainspotter]

Had a tradesman here today who mentioned that his average quarterly electricity a/c is between $800 and $1000. He's running a pool but in addition uses the a/c to heat and cool the house 24 hours to 27 in winter, and down to 22 in summer.
They 'can't be bothered' hanging washing on the line so it all goes through the dryer.

He wants to heat the pool but 'doesn't like the look of the solar tubing on the roof', so will install a heat pump which will more than double the power bill. The solar costs almost nothing to run and on a sunny day is way more effective than a heat pump for pool heating.

Am I being unreasonable in thinking this is just mindless extravagance?

Either he is earning too much money to care about $1000 electricity bills OR he has not heard about a carbon tax that will curb his extravagant use of power.

 

[basilio]

AN environmental activist has locked himself inside a box at a New South Wales mine in a bid to disrupt coal production and attack efforts by resource giants to "dodge" a carbon tax.
Greenpeace activists locked a steel box onto a rail track servicing Mt Arthur Coal, BHP Billiton's largest Hunter Valley coal mine, at about 11.25am (AEST) today.
Once the box was secured and a coal train bound for Newcastle port was stopped, activist Erland Howden climbed inside and shut the lid.
He will remain in the box for three days as part of the protest.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/car...ox/story-e6frfm1i-1226071795958#ixzz1OfMVOfYO

What a clever little protest. Gets across the point that the carbon tax will cost only 3 days production and "holds up" the trains for 3 days. Neat.

 

[basilio]

Had a tradesman here today who mentioned that his average quarterly electricity a/c is between $800 and $1000. He's running a pool but in addition uses the a/c to heat and cool the house 24 hours to 27 in winter, and down to 22 in summer.
They 'can't be bothered' hanging washing on the line so it all goes through the dryer.

He wants to heat the pool but 'doesn't like the look of the solar tubing on the roof', so will install a heat pump which will more than double the power bill. The solar costs almost nothing to run and on a sunny day is way more effective than a heat pump for pool heating.

Am I being unreasonable in thinking this is just mindless extravagance?

Seems wasteful doesn't it ? It's interesting because there are still plenty of examples of businesses and private citizens who don't seem to care on even a financial basis about mindless energy use. Perhaps we need a good depression ??

 

[sails]

What a clever little protest. Gets across the point that the carbon tax will cost only 3 days production and "holds up" the trains for 3 days. Neat.

More like selfish. Doesn't he care about the people on that train that may have appointments or other important events? I'm sure the people whose lives are interrupted by this selfish action will feel every minute of those 3 days.

Unbelievably stupid and very selfish. I hope this guy is prosecuted. And you think this gives climate alarmists credibility. What on earth are you smoking????

Well, it's no wonder the carbon tax is crazy when crazy people like this promote it.