KZL - Kagara Limited

[porkpie324]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

considering the materials index is falling away today KZL has stood up well.porkpie

 

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

What a winner share.

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

probably about 12 months from now.

obviously it will be affected by any general market correction. metals havent run far enough to correct just yet.

MS when do u estimate that will happen?

late 2007 im thinking atm

thx

MS

 

[porkpie324]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

KZL seems to have resistance around the $7.00 mark, much the same accured at the $6.00 mark.porkpie

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

KZL seems to have resistance around the $7.00 mark, much the same accured at the $6.00 mark.porkpie

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 16.8 70.8 59.3 29.9
DPS -- 2.8 0.0 0.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 70.8 9.6 321.7%
Year Ending 30-06-08 59.3 11.5 -16.2%

not sure how true that 2009 one is

thx
MS

 

[porkpie324]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Thanks MS for the detail, long term KZL are a good zinc miner, I have only been short term trading KZL of late with CFDs.porkpie

 

[pacer]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Anyone got a few ponds of zinc to spare?....got a call from the Chinese....they are running a bit low on the stuff....I expect the Indians to be calling later today aswell....lol.....

I've had an awesome two weeks on this and ZFX.....but is it time for me to jump off this roller coaster?.....market sentiment is at an all time high which makes it very hard to judge the end of the run....but I just looked at the sell side and there is absolutely no resistance........only 160,000 shares till blue sky and I mean REAL BLUE SKY!!!!!.....0 resistance.....see you all at $8....maybe?

What a decision to make....I hate it .....

Wow....halted...and 0 resistance..later...gotta find out what's happening...

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Anyone got a few ponds of zinc to spare?....got a call from the Chinese....they are running a bit low on the stuff....I expect the Indians to be calling later today aswell....lol.....

I've had an awesome two weeks on this and ZFX.....but is it time for me to jump off this roller coaster?.....market sentiment is at an all time high which makes it very hard to judge the end of the run....but I just looked at the sell side and there is absolutely no resistance........only 160,000 shares till blue sky and I mean REAL BLUE SKY!!!!!.....0 resistance.....see you all at $8....maybe?

What a decision to make....I hate it .....

Wow....halted...and 0 resistance..later...gotta find out what's happening...

dude its called irrational exuberance

but thats what happens when supply cannot meet demand

thx

MS

 

[pacer]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Stupid computer...had me all excited....reloded etrade....still not much resistance only 118000 shares resistance now.......

Too much bourbon=exhuberance...sorry again....

 

[Dukey]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!

Mornin Guys n Gals
Well KZL just keep rocketing.... currently touching $7.16 !!

IN the last month (since Sept 25) KZL sp has gone from about $4.85 to its current price - with - and this is the impressive bit - ONLY 2 DOWN DAYS (on closing price) if I`m reading correctly. !!!

Gotta love it hey... but I have 2 questions...

1. Who is buying... funds?? Small investors?? Big layers positioning themselves for a bid??

2. How long can it continue. Obviously zinc price and KZL`s future profits are big factors.

Any ideas on these questions?

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!

Mornin Guys n Gals
Well KZL just keep rocketing.... currently touching $7.16 !!

IN the last month (since Sept 25) KZL sp has gone from about $4.85 to its current price - with - and this is the impressive bit - ONLY 2 DOWN DAYS (on closing price) if I`m reading correctly. !!!

Gotta love it hey... but I have 2 questions...

1. Who is buying... funds?? Small investors?? Big layers positioning themselves for a bid??

2. How long can it continue. Obviously zinc price and KZL`s future profits are big factors.

Any ideas on these questions?

Its gonna keep going up and everyone will be buying it

Its called "irrational exuberance", but thats what happens if real supply cant meet real demand

thx

MS

 

[pacer]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

I'm trying very hard to find a reason to sell, but cant, I want those profits, but this is just a freak, like ZFX!

A splash in the inventories might put a stop to it, but who's got any to put there in a hurry.......blue sky still.....

 

[rederob]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!

Its called "irrational exuberance", but thats what happens if real supply cant meet real demand
thx
MS

Hardly "irrational".
Irrational implies it makes no sense.
Exactly the opposite.
Zinc is following the basic economic rules of supply and demand and being very true to them at the moment.
From a purely theoretical construct, zinc did not follow this rule for over 3 months while it was "shackled" to copper prices and fund selldowns.
Thus, its present price rally has an element of "catch-up" which we have yet to see.
LME cancelled warrant data suggest no respite from this rally for the next week or two, although the pace of warrant cancellations has slowed, and may temper the rising price somewhat.
Right now I believe $8 is a safe target price for KZL, although astute buyers should look for the gap of Friday 20 October to be filled (target price around $6.30 or lower).

 

[michael_selway]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!

Hardly "irrational".
Irrational implies it makes no sense.
Exactly the opposite.
Zinc is following the basic economic rules of supply and demand and being very true to them at the moment.
From a purely theoretical construct, zinc did not follow this rule for over 3 months while it was "shackled" to copper prices and fund selldowns.
Thus, its present price rally has an element of "catch-up" which we have yet to see.
LME cancelled warrant data suggest no respite from this rally for the next week or two, although the pace of warrant cancellations has slowed, and may temper the rising price somewhat.
Right now I believe $8 is a safe target price for KZL, although astute buyers should look for the gap of Friday 20 October to be filled (target price around $6.30 or lower).

its "irrational" cause there appears to be real "no limit" as to how high it can go so to speak

thx

MS

 

[nizar]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc- Just keeps going!!

Hardly "irrational".
Irrational implies it makes no sense.
Exactly the opposite.
Zinc is following the basic economic rules of supply and demand and being very true to them at the moment.
From a purely theoretical construct, zinc did not follow this rule for over 3 months while it was "shackled" to copper prices and fund selldowns.
Thus, its present price rally has an element of "catch-up" which we have yet to see.

Agree. Last time zinc was us$1.80/lb the LME stocks was 250ktonnes, now they are about 110ktonnes and the price still around us$1.80/lb. ECO101 says the price will represent the supply/demand fundamentals over time. There is a massive catch up which has yet to occur.

Rederob i initially thought your $3+ was a bit on the high side but now it looks all the more realistic. 35,000tonnes a day is the worldwide daily consumption of zinc metal, any supply constraints and its game on. Thats only ~3.5 days of global supplies. This time last year there was 51 days supply. Its all spelt out in ZFXs report.

As for $8 price target for KZL, id be happy to buy them off you at that price in a few weeks as i suspect it will be at a discount to the market. Astute buyers may see the price go alot higher before it does fill the gap. Iv tried to do that before and then iv ended up having to chase and pay a higher price. I didnt think i was too astute then. I thought i was a fool. Now i just pay market price for any stock. Especially when i plan to hold for several months.

This stock is a winner. Earnings will increase 6-fold this year. Just remember that if u think the stock has had its run. If it goes 5-fold then maybe. But earnings increasing faster than the share price, is a phenomenon hardly ever seen (Like ZFX last year) This is one of those gems. K Robinson owns 5% of the company, so we know he will look after the share price.

At the beginning of the year i suggested this may be the ZFX of 2006. But it has indeed shamed its bigger cousin, already up 227% this year while ZFX ran 150% last year.

This stock is a winner.

 

[GreatPig]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

A splash in the inventories might put a stop to it

Hey, if you want it stopped, just let me know.

All I'll have to do is buy some :

GP

 

[Devil_Star]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

KZL's current SP looks exactly like ZFX's one year ago. I believe commodities boom will last at least one year forward. Hope KZL's SP will at least double by then.

 

[nizar]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

This stock has closed up for the 12th yes TWELFTH day in a row!! from $5.86 on 11-10 until $7.21 today!

Thats a good effort!

(possibly some sort of record? iv never seen that before, iv seen steady rises but now 12 in a row)

 

[pacer]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

I hope 13 is not that unlucky.......can it do it again monday Nizar?

 

[Brasidas]

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

There is a good discussion of the next "nickel" sector - zinc - in this week's Minesite weekly roundup which is here in full.

That Was The Week That Was … In Australia

By Our Man In Oz

Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?

Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.

Minews. A few price examples please?

Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.

Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?

Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.

Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?

Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.

Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?

Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.

Minews. Much on the downside?

Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull5.php?storySeq=3894