KZL - Kagara Limited

lioness · 6 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

UMike said:
I still don't know what you base this on.

On the 20/10/2009 I sold a lot for $1.125 and bought 'em back at $1.05 a few days later

Don't see any reason for a breakout or why I can't continue this ~10% buy / sell strategy.

C ya in a few days

If that's the case Mike, you should be selling again now at 1.12 if you are true to your word and strategy.

After paying CGT, you might make enough for some cascade lights but I am banking on much bigger profits. I will come back to you when it hits 1.50 plus and remind you.

lioness · 12 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Umike,

Looks like you were right as KZL has slumped badly. Is it just me or is someone aggressively selling this down at all costs for the last week?

Something is up with this one and I reckon it will break up or down within the next week. Bots are on overdrive and 2 brokers (JB Were and Wilsons) have raised their targets to $1.50 as on KZL website.

This has been trading sideways for 6 months on the chart and gone nowhere.

If it can break up with some type of good news(maybe Admiral bay), reckon this will fly pretty rapidly.

UMike · 14 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Ahhh well.

If they got to $1.145 I'd be bragging right now.

Nice to hear JB Were and Wilsons have an upgraded target.... Hope they are right.

lioness · 19 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Someone dumped 11 million shares on the close on Friday.

Hmmmmm, something big is up here. Largest volume in 6 months. Lots of crossed trades also.

Maybe bad news coming?? Don't think so as all their project are going really well with the gold IPO due in 1Q 2010.

Also their Admiral Bay study is due now.

IFL just bought in substantial shareholder also, so not sure who is dumping now, must know something I don't?

satanoperca · 19 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Was an exciting day yesterday for KZL, topped up some more at 1.02 and then rise back to 1.035 and then finish at 1.00 due to the huge dumping of shares at close.

Ironically another position CDU did exactly the opposite with a huge buy order being filled during close.

Volumes on XAO & XJO jumped in the last two days.

Hard to read anything into as volumes have been declining over the last few months.

Monday will certainly be interesting for KZL with some more weakness due to the sell off on Friday expected.

nomore4s · 19 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

satanoperca said:
Volumes on XAO & XJO jumped in the last two days.

Volumes are up for the last 2 days due to options expiry etc etc so I wouldn't read anything into it at all

lioness · 19 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

nomore4s said:
Volumes are up for the last 2 days due to options expiry etc etc so I wouldn't read anything into it at all

Nomore, what has options expiry got to do with someone dumping 11 million shares in KZL??????

That's no correlation to KZL??

nomore4s · 19 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

lioness said:
Nomore, what has options expiry got to do with someone dumping 11 million shares in KZL??????

That's no correlation to KZL??

lioness how about you read the quoted text in my post, I was replying to satanoperca saying volumes on the XAO/XJO had jumped in the last 2 days.

And also while not 100% sure because I don't have access to the data, for someone to be "dumping" 11 million shares on the close someone has to be buying them and there is no way there would normally be that much depth in the queue on close for KZL, so it has to be some sort of prearranged trade.
Considering that 15.84million shares were traded for the day and 11mill came at the close I would hazard a guess that only 5-6million of that was true volume - the other 10mill were some sort of cross trade or something.

lioness · 19 December 2009

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

nomore4s said:
lioness how about you read the quoted text in my post, I was replying to satanoperca saying volumes on the XAO/XJO had jumped in the last 2 days.

And also while not 100% sure because I don't have access to the data, for someone to be "dumping" 11 million shares on the close someone has to be buying them and there is no way there would normally be that much depth in the queue on close for KZL, so it has to be some sort of prearranged trade.
Considering that 15.84million shares were traded for the day and 11mill came at the close I would hazard a guess that only 5-6million of that was true volume - the other 10mill were some sort of cross trade or something.

Yes, apologies nomore. You are right, it was a cross trade but I suspect more weakness coming as the depth still has many sellers in the millions waiting to exit. Monday will point to a true picture.

ectoplasm · 4 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Hi lioness,

Not much chatter on the KZL thread over new year. I think that high volume day (on the 18/12) was a key reversal day, and if Ni bounces off the support then KZL is in the early stage of breaking out (yes bit to early to call but that is life). Some fundamental news would assist the breakout

Two charts below:
1. Daily KZL - showing resistance @ $1.15.

2. KITCO's Spot Ni price

lioness · 4 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

ectoplasm said:
Hi lioness,

Not much chatter on the KZL thread over new year. I think that high volume day (on the 18/12) was a key reversal day, and if Ni bounces off the support then KZL is in the early stage of breaking out (yes bit to early to call but that is life). Some fundamental news would assist the breakout

Two charts below:
1. Daily KZL - showing resistance @ $1.15.

2. KITCO's Spot Ni price

Hi Ecto,

I have been watching this closely for the last 3 weeks and someone is definitely in there absorbing and manipulating. Reckon it is someone big as they throw around large shares, they must be waiting for the Mungana IPO which must be close now. January is strong for stocks and with Zinc and NI starting to surge, we should see 1.15 broken with 1.60 the target. I am waiting for the $2 target before thinking about selling. With China surging, KZL should be worth much more by end of 2010. I am amazed it is so cheap still.

By the way Ecto, you state NI will help it, but it is a really copper and Zinc which may up most of its revenue at the moment although lounge lizard may change that I suppose.

ectoplasm · 4 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Hi lioness,

I figured everyone had been on holidays but could not wait for someone to post here...

UBS's last report (beginning of November) had KZL as a sell & I would'nt be surprised if they have been shaking the tree before their next report lists KZL as a buy.

I was not going to bother but have the Copper and Zinc charts as well (posted below) I note even GFMS is still trending gently up as well.

UMike · 5 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Hi Ecto and Hi lioness

KZL is definately due for a rise in value short term at least anyways. Been far over due.

Since most investors invest in the future of a Company, KZL must be considered a Ni play as well now.

noco · 5 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

lioness said:
Hi Ecto,

I have been watching this closely for the last 3 weeks and someone is definitely in there absorbing and manipulating. Reckon it is someone big as they throw around large shares, they must be waiting for the Mungana IPO which must be close now. January is strong for stocks and with Zinc and NI starting to surge, we should see 1.15 broken with 1.60 the target. I am waiting for the $2 target before thinking about selling. With China surging, KZL should be worth much more by end of 2010. I am amazed it is so cheap still.

By the way Ecto, you state NI will help it, but it is a really copper and Zinc which may up most of its revenue at the moment although lounge lizard may change that I suppose.

They are probably trading low atm since the dividends dried up a couple of years ago.

I traded in and out between $4-7 back before 2007. Once the dividends start to flow there should be some increase in the SP. Took advantage to top up when they hit a low of 34 cents. I'm in for the long haul.

noco · 6 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Kagara announced today they have mined the first ore from it's Lounge Lizard high grade nickel sulphide deposit in West Australia.

Lets hope we see more movement in the SP.

lioness · 6 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

noco said:
Kagara announced today they have mined the first ore from it's Lounge Lizard high grade nickel sulphide deposit in West Australia.

Lets hope we see more movement in the SP.

Noco,

I know the market will ultimately value KZL, but what do you think they are worth potentially if base metals keep improving and with Admiral bay and Mungana IPO??

ectoplasm · 6 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Hi lioness, (Hope you do not mind my attempting an answer rather than NOCO)

In UBS' last KZL report (issued early November) they recommended a sell (rerated from Neutral) ~ some salient points are below:

"Kagara Ltd, headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, is a base metals producer with a portfolio of assets in northern Queensland and Western Australia. Production of zinc is expected to ~100ktpa by 2012 and copper production to ~35ktpa; Kagara's first full quarter of production (Last quater) from the high grade Mungana mine with mined output of 77.8kt at 15.9% Zn. First nickel production is expected from the Lounge Lizard project in WA by mid - 2010 (they announced today the first Ore Production From Lounge Lizard Nickel Project). The company has an active exploration portfolio, with encouraging prospects including the Red Dome, King Vol and Thalanga deposits around its Queensland tenements. Kagara is also looking to advance Admiral Bay Zn/Pb deposit in northern Western Australia, although a JV partner will be required.

In UBS's view, the next catalyst for KZL is likely to be the results from the
Admiral Bay pre-feasibility. We still remain to be convinced about the project
due to its depth and grade. This is likely to be followed by the proposed
Mungana Goldmines IPO. We also remain unconvinced about the proposed codevelopment of the Mungana orebody. However, despite our uncertainties, we are attributing ~$100m to each of these two projects in our valuation."

FWIW I think this estimate is ultra conservitive ~ reflecting the risk in these projects, however I expect UBS's assessment to favourably change in the next report (based on recent progress)

Daily chart: some consolidation could have been expected but price and volume are increasing... the above information suggests a long term hold IMO

noco · 6 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

lioness said:
Noco,

I know the market will ultimately value KZL, but what do you think they are worth potentially if base metals keep improving and with Admiral bay and Mungana IPO??

Lioness, firstly, I am not a financial adviser and it is only my opinion.

If you have access to Comsec, they display all the financials of KZL.

As at the end of June 2009, their assets totalled $132,998,000 and their Liabilities were $218,210,000. They also had a debt of $164,957,000.

Comsec show a book value of $0.74 per share.

Their last dividends were $010 per share 14/02/06 and $0.12 per share 08/10/07.

KZL have been through a pretty rough time with the GFC and the drop on commodity prices through 2008/9, however, if the price of zinc, copper, nickel and gold continue to increase, there is a pretty fair chance their finances will improve during 2010. Just when they start to show a dividend again, I could not say, but I do have confidence in KZL to work their way through.

Once again, this only my opinion, others may have a different view on KZL.

Good luck.

lioness · 6 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

Many thanks Ecto and Noco, good responses.

By the way, Nick Radge from the Chartist covered KZL tonight and he states if it can break 1.15 on large volume and close on its highs, then it is breakout to a potential target of $2.00

noco · 6 January 2010

Re: KZL - Kagara Zinc

lioness said:
Many thanks Ecto and Noco, good responses.

By the way, Nick Radge from the Chartist covered KZL tonight and he states if it can break 1.15 on large volume and close on its highs, then it is breakout to a potential target of $2.00

Actually, I would not be surprised to see it go higher by 2011. As I said previously, it ranged between $4 and $7 prior to GFC. IMHO I doubt we will see those highs before 2012. A lot will depend on what happens with Global finances in 2011. We could have a double VV Goblaly by april 2011 based on a financial report I read. Can't remeber where I read it unfortuneatly.

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